|
Azerbaijan launched an invasion of Nagorno-Karabakh (which is technically part of Azerbajian but really a part of Armenia) today with the apparent backing of Turkey. This is the most recent development in the frozen conflict since the clashes along the Azeri-Armenian border in July and perhaps is an even greater escalation than the a four day quasi-war in 2016 that ended in a stalemate. It's the first declared war between two sovereign states since Russia's invasion of Georgia. Many view this as an extension of the Turkish-Russian proxy conflict already playing out in Libya and Syria. Armenian sources are accusing Turkey of funneling Syrian fighters into Azerbaijan and providing F-16 cover, whereas the Azeris have expressed alarm at Russia's alleged covert rearmament program in Armenia. Russia has just concluded the Kavkaz-2020 joint exercises with Iran and Armenia simulating a naval invasion in the Caspian Sea (no points for guessing who that is aimed it) while Turkey's relationship with Armenia is uh, well, DOES this conflict continue to escalate? WHAT does this say about America's ability to enforce peace globally? WILL this retroactively justify all those panic purchases you made back in March? WHEN will Tupac kill the marauding Turk with rap magic? ALL THIS... and more!!!
|
#
¿
Sep 27, 2020 20:31
|
|
|
|
| # ¿ May 22, 2024 01:06 |
|
|
Very  Armenian vid of the aftermath of an Azeri mechanized assault. Shows several corpses including a BMP that got turned into a crematorium.
|
|
#
¿
Sep 27, 2020 21:53
|
|
|
BrutalistMcDonalds posted:yeesh Fun(?) fact about BMPs is that they were designed for the battlefield of WWIII Germany with the expectation that any disabling shot would kill everyone inside due to chemical/radioactive exposure. Consequently the designers de-emphasized the survivability of the crew and passengers in case it was knocked out because they assumed everyone inside would be dead men anyway. This lead to design decisions such as storing ammunition in the passenger compartment and putting fuel tanks in the doors (!!!!). Anyway point being is that they're even more of a death trap than a normal lightly armored AFV.
|
|
#
¿
Sep 27, 2020 22:09
|
|
|
SpudCat posted:Did the neo-nazis ever decide whether Armenians count as white or not Is that controversial? They're literally Caucasian, were the first place to officially Christianize and are constantly feuding with their Muslim neighbors. I'd think that would tick a lot of Neo Nazi culture war boxes.
|
|
#
¿
Sep 28, 2020 00:44
|
|
|
gradenko_2000 posted:would anyone be willing to effort-post about the history behind these two countries and/or their current political climates? I only have the vaguest idea about this region. Literally all I know about the region comes from the book Black Garden (by de Waal, it's about 20 years old at this point). That said, it seems to be the most authoritative single English source on the region at the moment so I'll summarize the key points as best I remember them. (Although, now that I'm looking at it, Wikipedia actually has a pretty good summary of the conflict and its background). Nagorno-Karabakh is actually the Russian term for the region, it's used as a neutral toponym instead of the preferred Artsakh by the Armenians or Daglik Qarabag by the Azeris. It's a mountainous territory in the southern Caucuses occupied by both Armenians and Azeris over the centuries. It's important to note that the historiography of Nagorno Karabakh is quite politicized and as you can imagine both Azeris and Armenians have the tendency to exaggerate their own claim to the land and color their opposites as "guest peoples" occupying their ancient lands. At any rate, the southern Caucuses were conquered by the Russian Empire in the early 19th century and after a brief period of independence was reconquered by the Soviets during the Russian Civil War. At the time of reconquest, Nagorno Karabakh was part of the Azerbaijan Democratic Republic despite being mostly ethnically Armenian. The Armenians petitioned for it and Nakhichevan to be folded into the new Armenian SSR but instead they were made autonomous oblasts (Wikipedia claims Stalin did this to throw a bone to Turkey). With both nations part of the USSR, the question of who owned Nagorno Karabakh became less relevant and the issue sort of disappeared. Armenians and Azeris lived more or less peacefully beside one another and both countries hosted expatriate communities. However, with the decline of the Soviet Union in the late 80s, ethnic tensions began to flare, pogroms took place in both republics leading to population exchanges, and the old question of the status of Nagorno Karabakh reemerged. At this stage, the actual conflict was confined to the two parties lobbying in Moscow. Soviet leadership and Gorbachev in particular were extremely hesitant to transfer Nagorno Karabakh to Armenia under the belief that it would cause the other constituent republics to make demands and put the integrity of the Union at risk. They instead opted to send in the military to enforce peace and put an end to inter-community violence. This worked in the short term, however it backfired in a major way: the Armenians became increasingly nationally conscious. Yerevan saw some of the largest protests ever in human history, with hundreds of thousands turning out to call for the integration of Karabakh. These protests would later turn into the independence movement. This is a key point; modern Armenia was literally founded on the Karabakh issue. As you know, both countries would gain their independence in 1991. This would put Armenia in an awkward position, as with the other post-Soviet states it declared the borders of the Armenian SSR to be the borders of its independent state. (As a bit of trivia, this means that Armenia actually accepts Nagorno Karabakh to be a part of Azerbaijan, at least officially. This is the only conflict I know of where a country is occupying territory that it doesn't claim to own). With the USSR gone, the occupying Soviet soldiers largely abandoned or sold their weapons, with some even serving under Azerbaijan as mercenaries. The power vacuum also lead to a large surge in violence, with Nagorno Karabakh experiencing a vicious wave of ethnic cleansing that ended with virtually the entire Azeri population being expelled, and at least one instance of massacre occurring with the destruction Khojaly. The Armenians and Azerbaijanis fought an all-out war over Nagorno Karabakh between 1991 and 1994, with the Armenians prevailing despite a distinct Azeri materiel advantage. Despite winning, the war lead to the complete closure of the Turkish border and a consequent collapse of the Armenian economy, which still suffers in large part due to the effects of the conflict. I'm less clear as to what has developed since 2000 but I understand that attempts to come to a lasting peace agreement failed over the course of 25 years and the conflict has re-intensified over the last 5 years as Azerbaijan has rearmed itself after becoming stinking rich with oil money.
|
|
#
¿
Sep 28, 2020 03:13
|
|
|
Official Joe Biden statement condemns Russia for "arming both sides" (LMAAOOOOO) but thankfully avoids going full Ataturk?"Biden's website posted:I am deeply concerned by the outbreak of hostilities in Nagorno-Karabakh and call for urgent de-escalation, restoring the ceasefire, and a resumption of negotiations between Armenia and Azerbaijan. The United States should be pushing for more observers along the ceasefire line and calling for Russia to stop cynically providing arms to both sides, while reviewing our own security assistance programs to ensure no military capabilities are being repurposed for offensive means.
|
|
#
¿
Sep 28, 2020 05:37
|
|
|
The rest of NATO told them they were on their own in their Syria adventures and recently they got into a pissing match with France because they stopped an illegal shipment of arms to Libya. I doubt NATO's going to get dragged into their stupid Caucuses grudge war
|
|
#
¿
Sep 29, 2020 05:03
|
|
|
Al-Saqr posted:If russia directly intervening in Syria didnt blow up the world you can rest easy that this Caucus business will stay there. I think there's a plausible route to this war developing into something wider (something like Iran and Russia allying to attack Azerbaijan, Turkey appealing to the US to punish Iran to prevent a major swing in the balance of power in the Caucuses, Trump seizing on this as his October Surprise) but it's pretty slim imo. That said Azerbaijan seems to have gone all in with Turkey which leaves Russia few options for maintaining their position in the region. I think it all comes down to how serious Azerbaijan is and how much Erdogan wants to escalate.
|
|
#
¿
Sep 29, 2020 16:52
|
|
|
Atrocious Joe posted:This accounts are pro-Syrian rebel Seems like Azerbaijan/Turkey were gambling that their drones and mercenaries approach would work as well in Armenia as it did in Idlib. Doesn't work as well against an entrenched regular army it seems!
|
|
#
¿
Sep 30, 2020 18:52
|
|
|
Vasukhani posted:Piles of dead unarmed azeris, people suggesting it may be an execution, looks like a lot of gear to leave on prisoners though Yeah I find the lack of weapons suspicious, although it seems like it might be common for corpses on the battlefield to have their weapons stripped? See this (graphic) photo of soldiers killed by machine gun fire in the Dieppe raid -- all their weapons had been put into piles before the photographer even got there. Also presumably Armenian state television wouldn't be allowed to film the aftermath of a war crime. sum has issued a correction as of 23:08 on Oct 1, 2020 |
|
#
¿
Oct 1, 2020 22:59
|
|
|
I was doing some research on Azerbaijans suicide drone force and I was surprised to discover that their tiny drones (Orbiter Minis with a 2 kg warhead) cost about $400,000 apiece and the big ones (IAI Harpies/Harops) cost something like ten million dollars each. For reference, a T-72 tank costs something like $1 or $2 million apiece. It's unlikely that Azerbaijan has more than a few dozen on hand and it seems like a lot of them are being spent on blowing up supply trucks, reserve rifle squads and Soviet surplus howitzers. They make for impressive videos but my sense is that their battlefield impact is limited and that the Azeris are probably going to run out of them sooner rather than later
sum has issued a correction as of 03:49 on Oct 2, 2020 |
|
#
¿
Oct 2, 2020 03:46
|
|
|
animist posted:confused why they don't just buy commercial drones and strap bombs to them The Harop has a 1000 km range, uses stealth technology, and is capable of automatically homing in on radar sources (like SAM installations). It's not like it's just a fancy quadcopter with a grenade duct taped to it. Azerbaijan is just apparently choosing to blow a lot of them on low value targets.
|
|
#
¿
Oct 2, 2020 05:34
|
|
|
Seems like Erdogan has a case of Overly Ambitious Second Rate Power Syndrome. If history is any guide I believe this will lead to nothing but good things for Turkey
|
|
#
¿
Oct 2, 2020 18:16
|
|
|
Terminal autist posted:Is this like a Balkans thing where they were culturally and linguistically similar for centuries but then like 100 years ago they used advanced race science to measure skulls and decide to kill each other or just like a religious thing? They're pretty different culturally, they speak distinct languages and obviously have a different religion. The roots of the conflict basically come from the fact that Armenia and Azerbaijan were in the middle of a war when they were mutually conquered by the Soviets (or reconquered I guess) and Stalin basically decided that the old front lines were a fine enough place to draw the borders for the new SSRs rather than reconsolidating them in an ethnically sensible way. This combined with the fact that the Nagorno-Karabakh dispute was literally the founding issue for modern Armenia (and to a lesser extent Azerbaijan) has lead to a stupid mutual politics of revanchism.
|
|
#
¿
Oct 3, 2020 00:05
|
|
|
Avynte posted:man, if russia doesn't step in to lend a hand, the airpower provided to the azeri just seems brutal That vid is old but at :20 the "MLRS" it's blowing up is a canvas decoy. The drone that is flying into it costs $10 million
|
|
#
¿
Oct 3, 2020 23:37
|
|
|
human garbage bag posted:so is armenia hosed unless russia joins in? seems like they can't do anything as long as the azeri's have air superiority. For all their flashy drone vids it seems like Azerbaijan has made only extremely limited advances on the ground, like sub-Verdun levels. Assuming they're using a conventional strategy it seems likely that they've already expended a lot of their offensive power and gotten next to nothing in return. Wars are almost always declared with an expectation of a quick victory, so the fact things are already stalled it would seem to me that the Azeris are likely to cut their losses soon.
|
|
#
¿
Oct 4, 2020 07:26
|
|
|
https://twitter.com/ANCA_DC/status/1313346247865118721
|
|
#
¿
Oct 6, 2020 22:25
|
|
|
Ghost of Mussolini posted:I don't see why Azerbaijan has a strong motive to break the ceasefire (Armenia clearly doesn't). If even half of the claims are true, Azerbaijan has made huge gains compared to before. More than enough to parade all of this internally. Azerbaijan only gets stronger with time, and Armenia's position will only weaken. Aliyev knows he doesn't have to go for broke now. They gained a lot more than last time but their advance was still very marginal and didn't really capture anything of value even after expending seemingly all of their offensive capability. Their advance was limited to the southern foothills and at no point did it look like they were in a position to strike deep into the mountainous heart of the territory. It took years of rearmament and seemingly billions of dollars of spending and they got jack poo poo in exchange. It seems quite unlikely to me that Azerbaijan will ever be able to take Nagorno Karabakh by force of arms without dragging in other countries.
|
|
#
¿
Oct 10, 2020 17:53
|
|
|
I'm not sure how integrated the Artsakh military is with Armenia's but that looks like a Scud strike and the ADA has Scuds in their inventory.
|
|
#
¿
Oct 11, 2020 16:59
|
|
|
I mean even if Azerbaijan got exactly what they wanted they'd basically just have mini-Chechnya on their hands except even more heavily armed and also being directly supported by their neighbors. Like what's they're end game, hope the Armenians in Nagorno Karabakh just leave?
|
|
#
¿
Oct 12, 2020 05:08
|
|
|
I mean I'm sure Azerbaijan would love to do ethnic cleansing but that's harder to do in the 21st century. Look at Kashmir and Palestine
|
|
#
¿
Oct 12, 2020 05:38
|
|
|
PERPETUAL IDIOT posted:Let's expand it to 30 years. What's this... Azeris? Ethnically cleansed... hang on, looking into it a little bit more... Nagorno-Karabakh? Wait a sec! Early 1990s are famously part of the 21st century. Nice epic dunk idiot. Also no one's brought up an example of ethnic cleansing that wasn't either perpetrated by irregulars, half-done, or only accomplished after a decades long civil war, which was exactly the point I was making.
|
|
#
¿
Oct 12, 2020 16:28
|
|
|
They could increase their PR budget 8-fold for the price of a single Israeli suicide drone that they'd otherwise drop on a 50 year old artillery piece.
|
|
#
¿
Oct 12, 2020 19:42
|
|
|
Nakhchivan was nearly half Armenian until the genocide. I mean it's still irredentism but it's not like the RoC claiming Mongolia or whatever
|
|
#
¿
Oct 13, 2020 21:39
|
|
|
Vasukhani posted:Azeri propaganda TV is showing video from central Jabrayil I believe they've been tussling over Jabrayil for at least a week. I'm more balmy on Armenia's chances. Azerbaijan's advances have been confined to the southern foothills where advancing is comparatively easy and the terrain is much more open. Penetrating into the mountainous interior is going to much much more difficult and would neutralize a lot of Azerbaijan's advantages. The fact that Az agreed to a ceasefire also seems to suggest that their offensive capability is waning.
|
|
#
¿
Oct 14, 2020 21:17
|
|
|
Sheng-Ji Yang posted:man the next large scale war is going to be so loving brutal A lot of the people pictured getting droned don't actually appear to be infantry, but infantry have always had the poo poo end of the stick. Line infantry makes up a relatively small percentage of total men in the military but take a hugely disproportionate amount of casualties -- 3rd ID in WW2 had an authorized strength of 14,000 yet took 25,000 casualties over the war, mostly among their 4,000 infantry. There just historically hasn't been birds-eye HD video of them getting exploded.
|
|
#
¿
Oct 18, 2020 00:52
|
|
|
I sort of wonder why there doesn't exist a laser platform specifically to fry optics. I have to imagine burning out an (extremely expensive) targeting pod takes a fraction of the concentrated energy as shooting down a plane and it still more or less renders the enemy useless.
|
|
#
¿
Oct 18, 2020 01:49
|
|
|
Arven posted:Traditional AA hasn't worked on anything but helicopters since Vietnam. That's because it's nearly impossible to hit a jet at 50000 feet going Mach 1 with an AA burst. A drone going 100 knots at 10000 feet is a lot easier. (You might say, "well why not make the drone faster and more maneuverable?," which would work but also make it much more expensive. Which solves the problem of cheap drone swarms)
|
|
#
¿
Oct 18, 2020 22:47
|
|
|
Atrocious Joe posted:https://twitter.com/NeilPHauer/status/1319205663076159490?s=20 Not to paint the numbers as good, but keep in mind that huge attrition among armor is expected in modern war. Both Israel and Egypt lost 60%+ of their tanks in only 19 days in the Yom Kippur war. I suspect that Azeri losses are also bad, it's just that we don't have drone videos of their poo poo being blown up. That said the fact that Armenia has lost pretty much the entire southern lowlands is not a great sign -- at best they decided that fighting for every inch in the open terrain was no longer tenable and at worst their defenses just collapsed.
|
|
#
¿
Oct 24, 2020 02:25
|
|
|
33 T-72s isn't 40% of their armor, Armenia and Artsakh combined have something like 500 tanks iirc. And the Arabs suffered similar attrition in Yom Kippur; they lost nearly two-thirds of their tanks (plus when the ceasefire was called they had a basically undefended path to Cairo. It's unlikely that they ever would have seriously needed to use nukes). Armored warfare in the age of precision weapons and advanced optics is brutal. e: Similarly, in the Battle of Kursk the Soviets lost over half of their armored vehicles in only 11 days and they won. Point being that very few people outside of the general staffs of Armenia and Azerbaijan have an accurate picture of what the military situation is at the moment so it feels rash to examine only one side's materiel loss figures and try to draw any conclusions from it. sum has issued a correction as of 04:27 on Oct 24, 2020 |
|
#
¿
Oct 24, 2020 04:19
|
|
|
|
| # ¿ May 22, 2024 01:06 |
|
|
Ahh the CSPAM classic of doing smug hellworld posts to camouflage the fact that you don't know what you're talking about
|
|
#
¿
Oct 24, 2020 08:13
|
|