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Seems really bad. Reuters is reporting that 49 Armenian soldiers have been killed and Azerbaijan is shelling Jermuk, Goris, and Kapan. So far this seems like a particularly muddled situation because it's lining up the US and Russia together with Armenia against Turkey and Azerbaijan. Turkey is taking the Azeri line that the attacks are a response to Armenian provocations and Russia and the US are calling for peace and diplomacy. The analysis here suggests that Azerbaijan might be trying to get extra leverage in the ongoing peace talks or to force Armenia to create a demilitarized zone along the border. There are also Russian peacekeepers still deployed in the region, but indications over the past six months have been that they're ineffectual at stopping border clashes, Azerbaijan isn't afraid of them after seeing how poorly the Russians are performing in Ukraine, and their force composition might have been weakened by redeployments to Ukraine anyway.
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Sep 13, 2022 13:17
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Reports today that Azerbaijan is striking not just Armenian military targets but also civilian areas and even Russians deployed in Armenia: https://twitter.com/NeilPHauer/status/1570023513095868418?cxt=HHwWhMC4saOE7MkrAAAA Armenia invoked the CSTO's mutual defence clause and so far the CSTO has responded by sending an observer mission but not actually any defensive troops. It's a bit confusing trying to figure out exactly what's going on at the moment, but it seems like Azerbaijan might simultaneously be invading southern Armenia (not just Nagorno-Karabakh) and calling for a ceasefire. If both are true, it seems like they're loudly trying to claim provocations by Armenia to justify troops crossing the border. vyelkin has issued a correction as of 16:40 on Sep 14, 2022 |
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Sep 14, 2022 16:37
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Supposedly Kazakhstan has already stated that they wouldn't be willing to contribute any troops to a CSTO mission to Armenia, and Russia is busy. Word is they withdrew 800 soldiers from their 2000-strong peacekeeping force in Armenia back in the spring due to losses in Ukraine, and never replaced them, so it looks like they don't even have the troops to spare for their existing commitments let alone for a mutual defence treaty response mission.
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Sep 16, 2022 16:49
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Weka posted:Does anyone have any good reading on Pashinyan? From just glancing around he seems like he'd like nothing more than to cozy up to America. Here's an in-depth article on his foreign policy and foreign policy decision-making process: https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10.1080/14683857.2022.2111111 The short version about the cozying up to America is that it seems like it was primarily done for domestic political reasons, to try and strengthen the 2018 revolution's democratic credentials and to cultivate a certain image of Pashinyan himself as a populist leader - it hasn't actually resulted in any tangible realignment with the West, and the US has had very little interest in cultivating ties with Pashinyan as long as he maintains Armenia's close ties to Russia. The authors' argument is that Pashinyan's foreign policy has been characterized not by some long-term strategy like realigning Armenia's position in the world, but by an inconsistent and incoherent flailing from one position to another for domestic political reasons, which has left Armenia geopolitically isolated and been ruthlessly exploited by Azerbaijan and Turkey.
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Sep 19, 2022 14:29
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