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archduke.iago
Mar 1, 2011

Nostalgia used to be so much better.

DrSunshine posted:

X-tech and AI

The fact that these various technologies need to be bundled into a catch-all category of X-technology should be a red flag, the framework you're describing is essentially identical to Millenarianism, the type of thinking that results in cults: everything from Jonestown to cargo. I don't think it's a coincidence that conceptual super-AI systems share many of the properties of God: all powerful, all knowing, and either able to bestow infinite pleasure or torture. As someone who actually researches/publishes on applications of AI, the discourse around AGI/ASI is pretty damaging.

First off, the premise motivating action doesn't make sense: advocates try to write off the minuscule probability of these technologies (it's telling that very few computer/data scientists are on the AGI train) by multiplying against "all the lives that will ever go on to exist." But this i) doesn't hold mathematically, since we don't know the comparative order of magnitude of each value and ii) this gets used as a bludgeon to justify why work in this area is of paramount importance, at the expense of everyday people and concerns (who, by the way, definitely exist).

Second, I don't think the ethical frameworks that the AGI nerds are working with generalize to the wider population. Their concern about what an AGI would do when given power is motivated by what they imagine they themselves would do, if given power. It's no coincidence that many Silicon Valley types speak of their companies revolutionizing society or maximizing impact in such a sociopathic manner.

Because these hypotheses are impossible to test, the discourse in this space ends up descending into punditry, with the most successful pundits being the ones whose message is most appealing to those in power. Since it's people like Thiel and Musk funding these cranks, it's inevitable that the message they've come out with is how tech nerds like themselves hold the future of humanity in their hands, how this work is of singular importance, and how nothing they might do to affect people's lives today could pale in importance.

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