POST YR MAPS, COWARDS

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Ramrod Hotshot: May 30, 2003

Mokelumne Trekka posted:

It's crazy how in 2012 polls would show Obama up just 1-2 points then he pulled off a bigger win than expected. now in 2020 Biden is up like 2-4 and we have to to assume he'll vastly underperform and Trump will do better

like Nate Silver has Ohio at 50/50 odds, which to me just means Trump will mostly certainly win that state

It's hard to square the polls with the level of enthusiasm for Trump, new Republican registered voters, etc. Plus incumbents usually do better than their polling indicates, Obama is a case in point

# ? Oct 20, 2020 23:08

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# ? May 21, 2024 19:58

TrixRabbi: Aug 20, 2010; Time for a little robot chauvinism!

Legit curious. Why does enthusiasm for Trump matter so heavily in these discussions, but negative partisanship and Democrat enthusiasm to oust Trump not matter? It seems both sides are very motivated.

# ? Oct 20, 2020 23:13

shovelbum: Oct 21, 2010; Fun Shoe

TrixRabbi posted:

Legit curious. Why does enthusiasm for Trump matter so heavily in these discussions, but negative partisanship and Democrat enthusiasm to oust Trump not matter? It seems both sides are very motivated.

pro trump side is bringing guns to polls and burning ballot boxes, lib enthusiasm is dressing their dog up as rbg and telling pollsters theyre ridin for biden, while secretly voting trump to keep their suburb white

# ? Oct 20, 2020 23:16

One More Fat Nerd: Apr 13, 2007; Mama’s Lil’ Louie; Nap Ghost

TrixRabbi posted:

Legit curious. Why does enthusiasm for Trump matter so heavily in these discussions, but negative partisanship and Democrat enthusiasm to oust Trump not matter? It seems both sides are very motivated.

Its kinda dumb to worry about since R enthusiasm is basically always high. The difference between a high and low turnout for the R's in the last 16 years is like 3-4 million votes. For D's its like 12 million.

This is gonna be pretty high turnout, Dems are very motivated. Bidens gonna win the PV by more than Hillary. I just think the Trump coalition is spread out well enough they could win the EC with even a 6 point popular vote loss, especially when a big part of that PV comes from Trump winning Texas by 2, instead of 9.

Especially, especially when PA is gonna have massive fuckery with the mail in ballots.

Of course the issue with a coalition that thinly spread is it might narrowly beat a 6 point pv loss but lose by like 200+ EV to an 8 point one.

# ? Oct 20, 2020 23:33

Chokes McGee: Aug 7, 2008; This is Urotsuki.

Chokes McGee has issued a correction as of 23:52 on Oct 20, 2020

# ? Oct 20, 2020 23:49

SpiderHyphenMan: Apr 1, 2010; by Fluffdaddy

TrixRabbi posted:

Gonna be a rough, close Trump victory y'all

this is a very funny joke

# ? Oct 20, 2020 23:57

Sheng-Ji Yang: Mar 5, 2014

Mokelumne Trekka posted:

It's crazy how in 2012 polls would show Obama up just 1-2 points then he pulled off a bigger win than expected. now in 2020 Biden is up like 2-4 and we have to to assume he'll vastly underperform and Trump will do better

like Nate Silver has Ohio at 50/50 odds, which to me just means Trump will mostly certainly win that state

polls are lib fake news, biden is a terrible candidate (tho maybe not as bad as hillary), and ultimately the trump base is massively more genuinely supportive than dems for their candidate.

that said saying one way or the other who will win is a fools errand. all i know for certain is the electoral college will be exactly 269/269

# ? Oct 21, 2020 01:18

Shear Modulus: Jun 9, 2010

TrixRabbi posted:

Legit curious. Why does enthusiasm for Trump matter so heavily in these discussions, but negative partisanship and Democrat enthusiasm to oust Trump not matter? It seems both sides are very motivated.

dem enthusiasm to vote out the incumbent wasnt enough for them to win in 2004

# ? Oct 21, 2020 01:50

shovelbum: Oct 21, 2010; Fun Shoe

Shear Modulus posted:

dem enthusiasm to vote out the incumbent wasnt enough for them to win in 2004

what did polls look like at this point in 04

# ? Oct 21, 2020 03:30

shovelbum: Oct 21, 2010; Fun Shoe

unstick thee post

# ? Oct 21, 2020 03:30

Azathoth: Apr 3, 2001

i'll post my map first then go full pundit because gently caress it why not

One More Fat Nerd posted:

Its kinda dumb to worry about since R enthusiasm is basically always high. The difference between a high and low turnout for the R's in the last 16 years is like 3-4 million votes. For D's its like 12 million.

This is gonna be pretty high turnout, Dems are very motivated. Bidens gonna win the PV by more than Hillary. I just think the Trump coalition is spread out well enough they could win the EC with even a 6 point popular vote loss, especially when a big part of that PV comes from Trump winning Texas by 2, instead of 9.

Especially, especially when PA is gonna have massive fuckery with the mail in ballots.

Of course the issue with a coalition that thinly spread is it might narrowly beat a 6 point pv loss but lose by like 200+ EV to an 8 point one.

the big question is whether what the dems are doing right now with early voting is actually getting a significant number of marginal voters to the polls or just getting their reliable voters to actually vote early. you're completely right that republicans don't really have anywhere near as many marginal voters as dems, so I don't read a lot into some of the more eye-popping topline numbers of dems crushing republicans in early voting, though I tend to think that they are doing better than 2016.

what it really comes down to is whether gop fuckery in wisconsin and pennsylvania is going to be enough to draw down the numbers to the point where trump can claim victory while giving the supreme court a fig leaf of cover to throw him the election. right now, as my map indicates, i'm inclined to say that biden squeaks out wins in wi and pa because he runs up the margins enough that fuckery can't overcome.

there's a separate, more lol scenario where he loses wi and pa barely due to fuckery but wins az and nc and comes in with 273 electoral votes and wins anyway. i'm inclined to say, however, that any scenario where biden wins gets at least one of nc or az means that he gets at least one of pa or wi and which state is the closest is more of an academic exercise.

i'll also agree that there's a reasonable scenario where trump wins a solid ec victory despite losing the popular vote by 6 points, but if biden pushes the margin to 8 points, he could reasonably be looking at an ec victory like 2008 obama (who won by 7). Going north of 8 probably means tx and ga are in play, and as funny as that outcome would be, it is 2020, so no, not going with that.

i think he comes in at around a 6 point victory and gets something approximating the map I posted above, a nailbiter in the ec but not in the popular vote.

# ? Oct 21, 2020 03:36

mastershakeman: Oct 28, 2008; by vyelkin

Search your feelings, you know it to be true

Edit actually I see someone had the same map so just flip the maine/nebraska districts to keep the tie

mastershakeman has issued a correction as of 03:57 on Oct 21, 2020

# ? Oct 21, 2020 03:54

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# ? Oct 21, 2020 04:26

Zeno-25: Dec 5, 2009; by Jeffrey of YOSPOS

# ? Oct 21, 2020 04:42

Old James: Nov 20, 2003; Wait a sec. I don't know an Old James!

TrixRabbi posted:

Legit curious. Why does enthusiasm for Trump matter so heavily in these discussions, but negative partisanship and Democrat enthusiasm to oust Trump not matter? It seems both sides are very motivated.

It�s better to be motivated to vote because you like a candidate than because you hate the other guy.

In 2016 Trump had both sides of the coin. His base (though not all Rs) were excited to vote for him. And all Rs also wanted to stick it to Hillary.

In 2020 I know so many people want to piss on Trump, but no one who is excited about the Biden agenda.

# ? Oct 21, 2020 04:55

platzapS: Aug 4, 2007

# ? Oct 21, 2020 04:58

Zeno-25: Dec 5, 2009; by Jeffrey of YOSPOS

mastershakeman posted:

Search your feelings, you know it to be true

Edit actually I see someone had the same map so just flip the maine/nebraska districts to keep the tie

Seriously tho I'm gonna be watching NC closely on election night. If Biden is gonna win as big as the polls say (lol) it'll show up there first

Zeno-25 has issued a correction as of 05:32 on Oct 21, 2020

# ? Oct 21, 2020 05:28

twoday: May 4, 2005; C-SPAM Times best-selling author

# ? Oct 21, 2020 11:15

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twoday posted:

rofl gdi

# ? Oct 21, 2020 11:30

Budzilla: Oct 14, 2007; We can all learn from our past mistakes.

I was convinced that I wasn't living in hell dimension I would add Georgia and Texas as my next states, respectively. Those 2 are competitive but I don't think there is enough support to get Biden over the line, but I do want to be wrong.

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# ? Oct 21, 2020 12:48