Free Cog posted:

I made this map on Halloween using these parameters:

• Using only the Five Thirty Eight reactive map
  
• Beginning from Maine, going down the coast, then sweeping to the West
  
• For every state that wasn't a greater than 100% chance for a candidate, roll a d100
  
• Wait for the map to calculate before each dice roll to adjust for previous decisions
  

And that's how I got this:

Mirthless posted:

i'll post a little optimism this morning because haha why not we're on the precipice of oblivion I might as well be the guy who says "we're about to step into a bold new world" before we walk through the bubble directly into hell itself

Taintrunner posted:

optimistic for what exactly

Biden’s not doing a lockdown, a mask mandate, or cutting you a check. he’s not gonna give you healthcare. he’s gonna let killer cops keep murdering Black people. he’s gonna keep murdering Muslim kids. he’s gonna back right wing coups in Latin America. he’s gonna do nothing but brutal austerity and ensure Trump 2.0 dominates 2024.

Mirthless posted:

dude i'm not voting for him or telling people to vote for him but i'm not going to pretend trump is better to help you replace the therapy you need over what happened in 2016 and again in 2020

nobody likes what is going on or what the next four to eight to twelve years have in store for us but jesus loving christ I don't have insurance and half my currently not-dead family is in the will-be-dead group and as i am not a necromancer i cannot change them to the un-dead group so would you kindly gently caress your way up a wall with piss and leave me alone

a toddler could handle coronavirus better and i can at least prefer the outcome where we have an admin who doesn't just let all of us die because coronavirus is bad for their poll numbers

Taintrunner posted:

Biden is not giving you healthcare and is refusing to do the needful to handle the pandemic, resulting in the same outcome as Trump. Sorry your little fantasy of the liberal austerity champion and his cabinet of Republican freaks like Kasich coming to save the day is just that, fiction.

Mirthless posted:

hey bud we just got the medicaid expansion here in oklahoma last year and at least his argument isn't to tear the whole thing down and make sure nobody ever covers my scoliosis and mental health problems ever again

Kitfox88 posted:

Taintrunner posted:

Biden is not giving you healthcare and is refusing to do the needful to handle the pandemic, resulting in the same outcome as Trump. Sorry your little fantasy of the liberal austerity champion and his cabinet of Republican freaks like Kasich coming to save the day is just that, fiction.

Taintrunner posted:

his argument is to let health insurance companies bankrupt you.

Mirthless posted:

a hospital will do exactly the same thing if you don't have insurance bud

Oiled and Ready posted:

I dont think he needs to save the day to be an improvement over trump

democrats in congress have already proven more likely to literally cut us all checks during the pandemic, for example

Taintrunner posted:

good thing Biden also wants to let hospitals bankrupt you.

Mirthless posted:

nothing changing is better than everything getting worse when your personal outcome is likely death which is probably why old people refuse to let progress happen

that said, i don't embrace accelerationism this much, hope your day improves friend

Harrow posted:

tag urself, i'm red illinois

Taintrunner posted:

haaahahahahahahaa no they won’t, Pelosi was very much against direct cash payouts at the start

Biden’s campaign has already declared “the pantry is dry” and he won’t be doing poo poo, but I’m sure the guy who wants John loving Kasich in his cabinet is going to be thinking about anything than the defecit

Organ Fiend posted:

There is no way Trump loses short of replacing Biden at the convention with someone radically different. Even then it would have to be someone who was credibly offering something tangible and desireable to the electorate. Nothing in the equation has changed since 2016. COVID, the riots, the economic situation, none of this changes anything and a huge part of that is that Biden offers nothing on any of these fronts. The other part is that Trump has successfully convinced his voters that these things aren't really his fault (like 95% approval among republicans). If nothing changes then the result is the same.

RE COVID: Trump wrote the checks! He made sure his name was on them. For those getting direct deposits, he wrote them a letter with his big, beautiful signature on it! I got one of these, and not only is his name all over it, it is SO obviously written in his voice. The one bit of relief from this disaster and he made sure his name was all over it. His other mistakes don't matter at all because he's giving people something and what does Biden offer? Nothing.

RE riots: Not a single one of the rioters/protesters either voted for Trump, or would ever possibly vote for Trump in 2020. I.e. these do not represent a rejection of Trump by his voters. On the contrary, these riots will energize his base just like the Chicago riots that shut down one of his rallies in 2016 did. These riots could be used as a way to energize the anti-Trump base, but once again, Joe Biden offers nothing on this point. In fact he is easily connected to the crime bill of the 90s (you know this will come up in the debates).

RE the economy: See COVID. Downturn will be blamed on that, and once again, he wrote the checks.

So once again, we have a charismatic guy with a rabidly enthusiastic base and zero inhibitions about hitting people for absolutely anything, against a decrepit symbol of washington corruption with numerous skeletons in their closet and with no enthusiasm behind them, who offers the electorate nothing.





I wasn't posting in 2016 (lol @ posting in D&D or even CSPAM before 11/9) but I predicted Trump (and how he would win) in 2016 and the guys in my office thought I was hilarious.

So here's my prediction:



Trump loses no more than one of the light red states (possibly wins all), and may pick up some of the light blue states depending on how badly Biden fucks up/decays live on camera and on how horrible his VP is.



Also, I'd like an Arby-Q with hash browns. No drink.

Harrow posted:

tag urself, i'm red illinois

Azathoth posted:

out of curiosity, do you feel genuinely compelled to come into any thread where biden is mentioned and start making GBS threads up the place or is this something that you're doing just to be a little poo poo?

legit no one in here was advocating voting biden and yet you roll in here and spend a page making GBS threads on him while everyone goes "yeah, we know". if it's a gimmick, it's dumb as hell, and if it's genuine, please log off and actually do something productive with that anger. you're ruining everyone's good time

Dayvan Cowboy posted:

So much focus on Pennsylvania lets Biden squeak out Georgia, and a slight polling error in favor of Biden lets him win most of the 50/50 states.

Not Texas. Texas is never turning blue.

Kitfox88 posted:

Azathoth posted:

Blue Texas, much like fission power, is 20 years away, and always will be.

COMPAGNIE TOMMY posted:

Is this Loss?

Kitfox88 posted:

no for real, no, it's a legit map i think has a chance of happening, biden's awful and dem enthusiasm is poo poo while trumpers are ready to march into their graves as long as their corpse hits the lever for trump on the way down

Kitfox88 posted:

no for real, no, it's a legit map i think has a chance of happening, biden's awful and dem enthusiasm is poo poo while trumpers are ready to march into their graves as long as their corpse hits the lever for trump on the way down

Geshtal posted:

Eh, might as well look brilliant/stupid for posterity.

COMPAGNIE TOMMY posted:

Even if Biden doesn't win, everyone who voted for him will get to sleep soundly for the next four years with the knowledge they did everything they could.