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bewbies
Sep 23, 2003

Fun Shoe
man, Kluber probably isn't going to the hall either is he

weird how we've had 3 non-hall multiple CY winners in recent years

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bewbies
Sep 23, 2003

Fun Shoe
speaking of historical dodgers

I got into Jackie Robinson stuff last night and decided to fire up an old excel model I made years ago for predicting how hockey players would age, adapted it for baseball, and then reversed it, in order to create a career projection for what JR might've done had he come into the majors as a young lad.



It has some flaws: it isn't really tuned for player type, so in JR's case it is probably a bit harsh on both his SB and EBH numbers and maybe a touch favorable on his HRs and BA. It also follows a more traditional career trajectory, which JR certainly didn't have: he wasn't at his best until age 30 for obvious reasons, so there's some wobble there (in other words, why his OPS was higher as a fantasy 27 year old than as an actual 28 year old). I also didn't really check my cells very carefully so I probably made a mistake in there somewhere but the numbers seem plausible.

Anyway I can't actually do WAR but my best guess is he would've ended up just a hair behind Hornsby as best ever 2B for career WAR.

bewbies
Sep 23, 2003

Fun Shoe
thanks to whoever it was on here I can now no longer see or read anything about Trevor Bauer without immediately thinking the raw dog

bewbies
Sep 23, 2003

Fun Shoe
Between COVID and the upcoming CBA expiration, it doesn't make much business sense to throw 9 figures at anyone this offseason. There's no guarantee the world is re-opened next spring, and I think its just as likely to be no season as there is a full one. That does create an opportunity for an enterprising and or prudent risk taker to get some good assets on the cheap for a title run this year or next though.

What's more interesting to me is how this whole thing might affect CBA negotiations this time next year. I've always been an advocate of basing player pay off of a percent revenue, which admittedly still gives owners some wiggle room to screw about, but is much more consistent in preventing either deliberate or coincidental collusion. COVID sort of torpedoes that model though. I have no idea how one attacks that from a labor perspective.

bewbies
Sep 23, 2003

Fun Shoe
is it the racist one

bewbies
Sep 23, 2003

Fun Shoe
man...imagine how competent someone would have to be to break both of those glass ceilings at the same time.

bewbies
Sep 23, 2003

Fun Shoe
cheating is bad and Barry bonds is a wife beating piece of poo poo.

bewbies
Sep 23, 2003

Fun Shoe
Steroids don't directly enhance performance in sports like baseball, like EPO does for endurance athletes. It just lets you do more of the things that do enhance performance while reducing the effects and duration of muscular injuries.

Also it is amusingly pharisaical for people to cheer Schilling being blackballed from the Hall while whining Bonds isn't in.

bewbies
Sep 23, 2003

Fun Shoe

bawfuls posted:

Not at all. The reasons for wanting each excluded are in fact quite different.

One is a litteral white supremacist who has used his notoriety to advance those violent beliefs, and would surely use the additional attention and platform of HoF induction to continue to do so going forward. This means inducting Schilling has actively negative consequences on the world, not just imagined negative consequences to the perception of a sports museum.

The other used steroids to improve and extend his baseball career, demonstrating the absurdity of the game environment at the time and forcing the sport to face what it had created through complacency. The league, the public, and the press did not care about PEDs when Sosa and McGwire were chasing 61. The baseball world only started to freak out when Bonds broke the game. In this way, one could argue Bonds' steroid use was good for the game in the long term, since it precipitated action to take their use seriously.

while I dislike the use of PEDs in baseball and disagree with those who apologize for it, I was referring to bonds' long history of alleged spousal abuse rather than his cheating as being at the very least comparable to shilling being a colossal racist idiot.

bewbies
Sep 23, 2003

Fun Shoe

bawfuls posted:

Again I think Bonds spousal abuse does not have the same level of direct public harm caused as Schilling's outspoken white supremacy.

If Barrold were out there on twitter and talk radio all the time talking about how great beating women is and more people should do it, then it would be a more apt comparison.

In both cases I am not concerned with the symbolic message their induction might send so much as the predictable real world consequences. Putting Schilling in the HoF will increase his ability to spread his violent bigoted message.

this is a weird application of utilitarianism. also I'd argue that institutions normalizing domestic abuse is just as bad as normalizing racism but I admit I'm a real stickler about it. perhaps I'm undervaluing ser barrolds very impressive OPS numbers.

bewbies
Sep 23, 2003

Fun Shoe
I just looked him up and man I did not remember Billy Wagner being as good as he was. I think my brain conflates him with Billy Koch for some reason.

bewbies
Sep 23, 2003

Fun Shoe
I think Snell's value as a trade chip is probably worth more than his actual value on the field (he hasn't been dominant the last couple of years, and he doesn't throw that many innings), but it doesn't make any sense at all for a team smack in the middle of a contending window like the raise to ship him off for prospects

this is doubly true for a team built like the rays who don't need seven innings out of a starter most nights

bewbies
Sep 23, 2003

Fun Shoe
I enjoy watching bartolo pitch from a technical perspective, his mechanics are still incredible and I imagine he can throw the baseball in a coffee cup more times than not

also I want to see a guy who throws nothing but mid-80s fastballs be a passable major league pitcher

bewbies
Sep 23, 2003

Fun Shoe

The Pussy Boss posted:

Passan with the $$ on the Minor contract:
https://twitter.com/JeffPassan/status/1333886478921904129

MLBTR projected Minor at 1 year for $6 million so that's another FA who did better than expected.

I'm glad the Royals spent some money on a possibly good pitcher but that's a lot to pay for a guy who threw 50-some innings of bad baseball.

bewbies
Sep 23, 2003

Fun Shoe

Poque posted:

MLB is surveying all employees across the league about baseball so I will make sure to tell them that everybody wants Universal DH and that the Astros should be removed from the league

submit these proposals to the league:

- players can opt to use a -10 bat, but if they do, they can no longer use a glove
- managers can choose who they want to send to the plate for a given at bat, but have to use all 9 hitters before one can hit again

bewbies
Sep 23, 2003

Fun Shoe

Sydin posted:

bWAR hates Schwarber because of his bad defense. I have no idea what is going on with the fWAR 2020 numbers though, yeah.

Anyway, more blood for the blood god:

https://twitter.com/JeffPassan/status/1334256488454500352

put this in the time machine back to 2014 and blow some minds

bewbies
Sep 23, 2003

Fun Shoe
royals seem convinced "guys who were bad last year" is the new market inefficiency

bewbies
Sep 23, 2003

Fun Shoe

Sydin posted:

Showing anybody striking out Cubs hitters with sliders doesn't really mean anything. You could probably look up a slider grip on wikipedia and go throw a bunch of 50 MPH ones to the Cubs and as long as you can get them low and away you'll strike out the entire lineup.

...go on

bewbies
Sep 23, 2003

Fun Shoe
I feel like chiefs could probably be genercized enough to be all right, just get rid of all of the native American crap. braves though is unsalvageable.

I still don't really understand what's going on with the Blackhawks butthey're dealings in these matters the last few years have been somewhat less than heroic

bewbies
Sep 23, 2003

Fun Shoe

FlamingLiberal posted:

https://twitter.com/mlb_pr/status/1339239227805065219?s=21

Good, although the record keeping for some of those leagues is spotty I believe

This is wonderful.

An unforeseen benefit to the game: large numbers of 80-tool name players now dominate the all time leaderboards

bewbies
Sep 23, 2003

Fun Shoe

BigBallChunkyTime posted:

That's the only bad thing. They should have been recognized from the beginning, but a lot of the stats will be approximations.

Proper Negro League stats from later in the era are more or less the same quality as MLB stats from the same period (though admittedly earlier negro leagues stats are crappy to non-existent). The tricky thing is those teams played a LOT of barnstorming/exhibition games, sometimes against very lovely teams. I'm guessing the only stats that will (and should, imo) count are actual league games. The lovely thing about that is the proper league seasons were very short.

Also, in preparation for upcoming debates with Old Men about the righteousness of stats, remember that just about any year you choose the best team in the negro leagues was just as good if not better than the best MLB team.

bewbies
Sep 23, 2003

Fun Shoe

General Dog posted:

Is there a consensus among the sabermetrics crowd about how close the level of competition was to MLB at the time?

The best negro league teams were as good or better than the best MLB teams, but the lower end of the negro leagues typically fell off quite a bit. For reasons no one has really ever figured out, negro league teams were wildly popular some places and really struggled in others, this largely independent of local racial makeup or segregation practices, and the teams at the bottom consistently struggled for stability.

That being said, there are precious few examples of non-all-star negro teams playing non-all-star MLB teams (thanks to Kennesaw Mountain being horrified at black teams beating his teams, lol), and anecdotally, both sides held that the major leaguers oftentimes did not put out 100%, versus the black players who were absolutely balls to the wall to win.

One of my favorite examples is the Battle of Kansas City, which is probably the best example I know of where a negro league team took on a white pro team in serious playoff series type baseball. The KC Blues at the time were consistently one of the best non-MLB teams in the country and were probably about as good as a basement MLB team any given year; they beat the Monarchs the first year and lost big the next year.

bewbies
Sep 23, 2003

Fun Shoe

Explosionface posted:

I'm going to use this as an extra reason to have some good bbq in KC while staying overnight after my son's visit to Children's Mercy.

you should do this

in my opinion the three best spots in town right now are q39, which is near westport, slaps, which is in kck, and Scott's catering, which is up by the airport. as much as I hate to admit it they have definitely left the old pitmasters behind when it comes to barbecue quality.

Scott's catering in particular is absolutely extraordinary but they have very limited hours and it's a ways away from downtown. if you're coming in midday from the north though it is absolutely the place to go

hope everything is all right with the kid! we took ours there a couple of years ago and it was bar none the best hospital experience I've ever had in my life

bewbies fucked around with this message at 15:52 on Dec 17, 2020

bewbies
Sep 23, 2003

Fun Shoe
fantasy football is all about squad depth and weekly matchups

fantasy baseball is all about predicting regression to the mean. points leagues are by far the best, by the way.


conclusion: i'm not really a huge basketball fan but fantasy basketball is the best fantasy game

bewbies
Sep 23, 2003

Fun Shoe
a bad defensive player who had a good few months hitting with a juiced ball really doesn't have a lot of trade value

in other words i find a lot of these takes very odd

bewbies
Sep 23, 2003

Fun Shoe

Darude - Adam Sandstorm posted:

The 2015 Royals suck imo

gently caress u

bewbies
Sep 23, 2003

Fun Shoe
barry bonds can eat a dick and rot in the same ditch schilling belongs in

bewbies
Sep 23, 2003

Fun Shoe

GalacticAcid posted:

https://twitter.com/byrobertmurray/status/1347370791290155012?s=21

I’m surprised, seems like a rebuilding team would be a more logical destination but that’s cool, hope he bounces back

I played this guy on MLB The show several months ago and my son hit him up on Instagram in order to mock me as I lost.

they have struck up kind of an Internet friendship since then which I adore.

anyway he's a crazy talented pitcher and seems like a great guy and I hope he finds his way back to the big leagues

bewbies
Sep 23, 2003

Fun Shoe
Curt schilling is finally getting to do exactly what God put him on Earth to do

bewbies
Sep 23, 2003

Fun Shoe
I bet harper is going to be an interesting HOF case...he'll have basically one really great season and probably some really impressive counting stats, but I'm betting like 12-13 more years of good solid uninspiring 3-WAR-per-year ball is how the rest of his career goes down. That'd put him at like ~70 career WAR, but with only one real standout year in his career.

Really what I'm saying is his candidacy will hinge on how enthusiastically he supports Donald Trump Jrs run for the presidency in 2032.

bewbies
Sep 23, 2003

Fun Shoe
Beltre didn't have a crazy peak like George Brett but his HOF resume is pretty close.

bewbies
Sep 23, 2003

Fun Shoe
Kluber's peak was historically excellent but he'll wind up in the same cell as Santana and Lincecum.

bewbies
Sep 23, 2003

Fun Shoe
It seems like his glove took kind of a hit the last few years also; I don't think you're getting a GG caliber infielder for that contract either.

That said it is a major bargain if you get 2 or 3 years of 900 OPS and good infield defense.

bewbies
Sep 23, 2003

Fun Shoe

It cracks me up when I recognize some totally rando prospect because he became a rando star player or personal favorite in OOTP.

Anyway this guy was my awesome catcher for years in my main OOTP game this season:



Two GGs and 7 ASGs

basically what I'm saying is you can book his hall of fame speech now

bewbies
Sep 23, 2003

Fun Shoe

lee was a colonel before the war

(civil war history dunk)

bewbies
Sep 23, 2003

Fun Shoe
"they didn't need pinstripes for henry aaron" is one of the better zingers of all time

howe_sam posted:

I'm not sure if The Athletc has unlocked it or not, but Aaron's entry in Joe Posnanski's Baseball 100 is obviously worth a read today.

anyone who hasn't read these should. or at least hank, oscar charleston, bonds, and cobb if you dont want to read them all

bewbies fucked around with this message at 18:18 on Jan 22, 2021

bewbies
Sep 23, 2003

Fun Shoe
I love Hank as a civil rights icon but my god, that sleeve patch. I know it wasn't his fault/decision but yeeeeesh



(glares at chief wahoo)

bewbies
Sep 23, 2003

Fun Shoe
great look for the hall when the top two guys on the list are absolutely trash human beings

bewbies
Sep 23, 2003

Fun Shoe
jfc i completely forgot about that

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bewbies
Sep 23, 2003

Fun Shoe
perhaps they meant a lack of character, like, he's an example of a shitbag, and don't be like this guy

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