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the short version of this is that it's getting increasingly difficult to get a representative survey of the population to the point where many of the non-public polls aren't done using phone polling at all. This isn't because general responsiveness has changed (at that point it's merely a cost increase in the numbers dialed), but because while the percentage of people who answer polls has declined it has declined unevenly (non-response bias). It appears that rates about those that score low on social trust in the GSS have plummeted much more than others (appears to be a more correlated metric than college_ed), while also some parts of the electorate has become more engaged and started answering polls at an increased rate. Another way of saying it is that not responding to phone surveys is now correlated to partisanship while it wasn't earlier. Basically the old way of doing phone polls are dead because response rates have gotten so uneven for subgroups you can no longer reliably statistically control for it and from now on you'll probably have to do more expensive panel type surveys. Pew research as one of the major ones for example have almost dropped phone polling entirely. This might seem like bad news for polling in general, but phone polling isn't really that old - being mostly a more cost-effective way of polling that started getting heavily used in the early 1980s. The super-reliable high rate of response surveys like GSS still hire lots of volunteers and do it the expensive old-fashioned way of live interviews! (note: not entirely free of mode effects due to social desirability bias etc).
Dante fucked around with this message at 07:06 on Dec 1, 2020 |
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Nov 30, 2020 22:18
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