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A venn diagram of the people who confidently predicted Biden would never win the nomination, then confidently predicted that he would lose to Trump, and are now confidently predicting he will be terrible in office. I'm a 6. Not my first choice at all, but I like his housing plan and he was part of the admin that essentially made immigration policy by fiat with DACA, so I'm cautiously optimistic that the people in his orbit will be willing to wield executive authority creatively in the face of McConell's intransigence. The trial ballon will be him being ballsy enough to do things like cancel student debt via executive order, like Schumer has called on him to do. Fill Baptismal fucked around with this message at 09:21 on Nov 9, 2020 |
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Nov 9, 2020 09:18
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Still Dismal posted:A venn diagram of the people who confidently predicted Biden would never win the nomination, then confidently predicted that he would lose to Trump, and are now confidently predicting he will be terrible in office. Without the Deus ex Machina of COVID he would have gotten flattened.
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Nov 9, 2020 09:20
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Majorian posted:Without the Deus ex Machina of COVID he would have gotten flattened. Not really. [Generic democrat] was polling well ahead of Trump well before COVID, and if Biden is anything at all, he's that. I mean, polls certainly had their problems this cycle so who knows, but polls are also how we have the knowledge that COVID hurt Trump, so I don't know, and no one will ever know for sure without a time machine, but I think pretty much any of the serious candidates this cycle had a good shot even if someone in Wuhan never had an unfortunate encounter with the local wildlife. Fill Baptismal fucked around with this message at 09:31 on Nov 9, 2020 |
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Nov 9, 2020 09:24
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Still Dismal posted:Not really. [Generic democrat] was polling well ahead of Trump well before COVID, and if Biden is anything at all, he's that. The polls turned out to be absurdly wrong, though. Biden barely squeaked out a win. Without COVID, it wouldn't have been close - Trump would have skated to reelection. quote:but I think pretty much any of the serious candidates this cycle had a good shot even if someone in Wuhan never had an unfortunate encounter with the local wildlife. 
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Nov 9, 2020 09:31
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Majorian posted:5, because I am excited to see if his inability to tackle the manifold crises the country faces will further along a true left opposition, radicalize more people, spur mutual aid/dual power, etc. I actually am optimistic that this will be easier under Biden than Trump, simply because a lot of people need to be shown that the Democrats are not, as an institution, there to help them. The Democrats are going to show their entire rear end here but I guarantee you 99.9% of the people who voted for Biden either are going to be scared back into line to vote for his worthless rear end again when Tucker Carlson brings Ernst Rohm back to life and the GOP nominates him in 2024 or they're going to look at the stock market and their own net worth and see Number Going Up and shrug rather than going all-in on mutual aid, dual power, and making the mental shift to electoralism as a second effort if that. Add in continuing to blame Mitch McConnell for everything that Biden doesn't do and you've got a complete set of ear plugs to ignore all the poo poo that's broken that the dems don't want to fix, and a few token executive orders (maybe forgiving* college debt) to point at will seal that deal for more people. "Not as bad as x!" is good enough for people whose lives haven't been shattered yet and who have no class consciousness to see how deep the bad goes and how little the branding of the rich assholes in charge changes the overall trajectory. That said, materials conditions are collapsing and the dems are totally unable to conceive of doing anything about that. Politics doesn't radicalize that 99.9% of people, being made homeless or being permanently injured at your poo poo gig job or beaten by the cops will. That's only going to happen to more and more people over the next few years, so radical political and parapolitical movements are only going to get bigger. What I think might radicalize people ahead of the usual schedule (ie, when they're contemplating or experiencing being personally immiserated because Joe Biden doesn't give a gently caress whether they live or die) is seeing how the Trump/MAGA phenomenon doesn't die down after Biden takes office and how little our security apparatus is going to do about it as long as they're just beating, spitting on, or harassing targeted minorities. People think that poo poo is over once he's not in the White House, ignoring that his personal brand and platform and the Fox/OAN platforms are ever-present and won't stop pushing his message, people see him getting dunked on by Twitter and don't see Parler topping the app store charts, etc. Ground-level violence by the right is only going to increase from now on, and when it becomes apparent that the cops are not going to intervene in that as it ratchets up, that's going to crack some pings. Overall though, excited to buy beans and give them to people without beans. Our bean-giving traditions must be built up while some of us can still access beans freely.
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Nov 9, 2020 09:35
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Majorian posted:The polls turned out to be absurdly wrong, though. Biden barely squeaked out a win. Without COVID, it wouldn't have been close - Trump would have skated to reelection. To add to this and paste a previous post of mine: punk rebel ecks posted:It took the literal moving of heaven and earth to elect Biden:
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Nov 9, 2020 09:40
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0. Nothing will fundamentally change.
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Nov 9, 2020 10:48
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Votes are still coming in so it probably won't be as close as it seemed but it's still absurd. Should've been like 20%/80% but that's never happening even if you had mecha Marx running. Not exactly excited but cautiously optimistic. Has a decent agenda and seems to at least considers pushing through as much as possible through executive action so at least that should decrease our chances of dying from climate change a little.
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Nov 9, 2020 11:16
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If it was relief Trump is not longer POTUS, 10/10. Excitement for Biden though, 2? Maybe 3. Expecting the USA to still lag behind on climate change action, have no universal healthcare and make no serious effort at police reform.
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Nov 9, 2020 11:27
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7 for me, as the only direct consequence is that the Tories may have to come up with a plan for Brexit which is more in depth that do what Farage says he wants.
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Nov 9, 2020 11:42
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Weasling Weasel posted:7 for me, as the only direct consequence is that the Tories may have to come up with a plan for Brexit which is more in depth that do what Farage says he wants. Lol if you think the Tories are gonna do anything good for the people 2. I worry for comrades in South America and incoming austerity, and 2022 and 2024 and... But he's less insane than Trump so that counts for something I guess
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Nov 9, 2020 11:46
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7 I have the (probably extremely naive) hope that Biden will veer a bit into LBJ territory by way of executive orders. That's probably a gigantic assumption on my part though. Him not being Trump gets him a 6 at the very least. Vichan fucked around with this message at 12:21 on Nov 9, 2020 |
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Nov 9, 2020 12:11
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punk rebel ecks posted:To add to this and paste a previous post of mine: Reagan came to power during a recession where the eventual (including post-election) number of jobs lost was less than a tenth of what they've been so far under Trump, and Reagan won against the incumbent Carter with nearly a 10% lead in the popular vote compared to Biden's 3%. If that's the amount of excitement Biden could generate when he wasn't in charge, imagine how little he'll be able to generate when things continue getting worse while he is. This is completely ignoring the fact that Biden is gonna oversee far more COVID deaths than Trump, which seems like it'll eventually matter. I just don't see how you can expect him to do anything good when he's in a weaker position politically than Obama in 2008, and is faced with a bigger crisis. Where is the room to maneuver, to do anything that'll allow him to build momentum and do actual good things? Even assuming he actually wants to, which the Obama example doesn't really support. Incidentally, the Obama example also points to him being a single term president, if he bleeds off as much support as Obama did between 2008 and 2012: Obama lost 3.1% of his 7% during that period, and Biden starts off at 3%. He needs like a 9/11 to bolster his numbers.
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Nov 9, 2020 13:27
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A Buttery Pastry posted:Is that good? Considering the foreign policy goals of people like Biden, not really.
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Nov 9, 2020 13:37
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Majorian posted:5, because I am excited to see if his inability to tackle the manifold crises the country faces will further along a true left opposition, radicalize more people, spur mutual aid/dual power, etc. I actually am optimistic that this will be easier under Biden than Trump, simply because a lot of people need to be shown that the Democrats are not, as an institution, there to help them. Agreed. I think seeing Obama do nothing to improve peoples' material well-being did more to radicalize people than Trump. If anything Trump just served to normalize Republicans that liberals previously hated and scared all of them into accepting a lowered bar.
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Nov 9, 2020 16:31
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mobby_6kl posted:Votes are still coming in so it probably won't be as close as it seemed but it's still absurd. With the sole exception of California, all states have 99%+ of their votes in. Popular vote wise the difference will be at most a bit over 3% (a competitive presidential race), electorally the difference was won by 100,000 votes (skin of their teeth). It was a nail-biting election no matter how you look at it.
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Nov 9, 2020 17:20
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punk rebel ecks posted:With the sole exception of California, all states have 99%+ of their votes in. Also in a year when they ran against a deeply unpopular incumbent, they lost House seats. Don't ever let anyone tell you that Joe Biden wasn't a dead-rear end micron from handing Trump another four years.
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Nov 9, 2020 17:45
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5-7, depending on two main things: A. Biden's patience with Republican intransigence. I don't think he's as loving stubborn as Obama was with his dedication to bipartisanship, so once the Republicans show their true colors, he will be okay with proceeding alone. B. The makeup of the Senate to help support him in (A).
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Nov 9, 2020 17:46
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Glass of Milk posted:5-7, depending on two main things: quote:If you hear people on the rope line saying, ‘I'm a Republican,’ I say, ‘Stay a Republican.’ Vote for me but stay a Republican, because we need a Republican Party."
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Nov 9, 2020 17:47
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I'm at a 2, with the one point given only because it has been hilarious to watch Trump and his fans get owned. Biden is going to be a poo poo president if his political history is anything to go by, or his floated cabinet nominations.
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Nov 9, 2020 17:56
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Look on the bright side, you get to  at the biden fans as they have nothing done for them.
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Nov 9, 2020 18:00
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StratGoatCom posted:Look on the bright side, you get to You should know by now that the majority of Biden voters are going to point at the usual table scraps and scream that this is better than Trump.
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Nov 9, 2020 18:10
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StratGoatCom posted:Look on the bright side, you get to I never got catharsis from Trump regrets so I doubt I'll feel any catharsis for left liberals being let down. I would much rather be proven wrong on all counts.
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Nov 9, 2020 18:15
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Tara Reade has to see her rapist in the white house now. Feel pretty bad for her. I guess it's better than all the women trump raped that had to see him up there bloviating? Progress?
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Nov 9, 2020 19:02
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Glass of Milk posted:5-7, depending on two main things: Harry Reid had to bar him from negotiating with republicans because he was compromising even beyond what dems had already agreed to.
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Nov 9, 2020 19:06
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I'ld say a 5. Here's to hoping MBS tries to be friendly with Biden and completely ends Saudi Arabia's participation in Yemen. At a minimum, at least we will stop selling arms (and providing troops) to them.
Kalit fucked around with this message at 19:23 on Nov 9, 2020 |
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Nov 9, 2020 19:11
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pat_b posted:Tara Reade has to see her rapist in the white house now. Feel pretty bad for her. I guess it's better than all the women trump raped that had to see him up there bloviating? Progress? As long as the Democrat raped 1 less woman than the Republican, you're a monster for not voting Democratic.
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Nov 9, 2020 19:18
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Prior joking aside, my expectations for the Biden Presidency is a solid 6-3.
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Nov 9, 2020 19:26
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Dumper Humper posted:Harry Reid had to bar him from negotiating with republicans because he was compromising even beyond what dems had already agreed to. it's so loving funny that Reid, who sucked in a lot of ways himself, was our last dem leader with a backbone and balls, and he had to spend most of his last years in the senate pulling Joe away from the cliff he kept eagerly trying to jump off.
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Nov 9, 2020 19:42
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sexpig by night posted:it's so loving funny that Reid, who sucked in a lot of ways himself, was our last dem leader with a backbone and balls, and he had to spend most of his last years in the senate pulling Joe away from the cliff he kept eagerly trying to jump off. It's really weird that I actually miss the machine Democrats of yesteryear who were lovely but at least not brainpoisoned by bipartisanship decorum brainworms like all of the Obama-adjacent people seem to be. Like, come on, how can you not miss this guy a little quote:Reid served as chairman of the Nevada Gaming Commission from 1977 to 1981. When Jack Gordon, La Toya Jackson's future agent and husband, offered Reid a $12,000 bribe to get approval of new games for casinos, Reid brought in the FBI to tape Gordon's bribery attempt and arrest him. After FBI agents interrupted the transaction, as prearranged, Reid lost his temper and attempted to choke Gordon, saying "You son of a bitch, you tried to bribe me!" before agents stopped him. Gordon was convicted in 1979 and sentenced to six months in prison. In 1981, Reid's wife found a bomb attached to the family station wagon;[2][10][11] Reid suspected it was placed by Gordon, although this has never been proven in a court of law.[3] LMAO
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Nov 9, 2020 19:54
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Kalit posted:I'ld say a 5. Here's to hoping MBS tries to be friendly with Biden and completely ends Saudi Arabia's participation in Yemen. At a minimum, at least we will stop selling arms (and providing troops) to them. i guess i just wonder why people think this is something that would happen. is it something that joe biden has articulated that he wants? or is this just absolute, fantastical projection? cuz from what i know of joe, there ain't no imperialist war he didn't approve of
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Nov 9, 2020 19:57
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RaySmuckles posted:i guess i just wonder why people think this is something that would happen. is it something that joe biden has articulated that he wants? or is this just absolute, fantastical projection? cuz from what i know of joe, there ain't no imperialist war he didn't approve of He has stated he would stop selling arms to Saudi Arabia and condemned their involvement in Yemen multiple times: https://www.forumarmstrade.org/2020_biden.html.
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Nov 9, 2020 20:06
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Kalit posted:He has stated he would stop selling arms to Saudi Arabia and condemned their involvement in Yemen multiple times: https://www.forumarmstrade.org/2020_biden.html. ok, thanks.
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Nov 9, 2020 20:15
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The Oldest Man posted:It's really weird that I actually miss the machine Democrats of yesteryear who were lovely but at least not brainpoisoned by bipartisanship decorum brainworms like all of the Obama-adjacent people seem to be. Like, come on, how can you not miss this guy a little oh Reid ruled, he was a monster but he ruled. He's also the dude who just big dicked lied that Romney didn't pay taxes, knowing he was safe doing it on the senate floor, and then later when everyone was 'what, no he paid taxes we have the records' he just went 'yea but it worked'.
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Nov 9, 2020 20:17
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Dumper Humper posted:Harry Reid had to bar him from negotiating with republicans because he was compromising even beyond what dems had already agreed to. This was, what, 2012? I think the world has changed since then. Call me an optimist, but I don't think that Biden or Harris are blind to the reality of the GOP. The smart political move is to be the one to call for unity and then, when the Republicans obstruct, say, "I tried, but look at these assholes." That was a lesson Obama never took, or tried to ignore because that was really the beginning of complete Republican obstruction. He thought he could bring them back from the brink instead of understanding they could not be reasoned with. I don't think in TYOOL 2020 that there's too many people who truly believe Republicans will rehabilitate themselves and try to govern. But by coming out and saying you're going to stomp them, you just rile up their base.
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Nov 9, 2020 20:22
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I think it is understandable if people are a little skeptical of the guy who worked for the last administration coming out in favour of bipartisanship when the last administration was demolished by it and the democrats in opposition have been in favour of it and also the party is saying "gently caress the left" a lot. Like, in context the idea that they suddenly hate bipartisanship now, that now it seems untenable in a way it did not beforehand, seems like the bigger reach. As, I think, is the idea it was ever predicated on rationality to begin with, rather than being something they believe in ideologically.
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Nov 9, 2020 20:25
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OwlFancier posted:I think it is understandable if people are a little skeptical of the guy who worked for the last administration coming out in favour of bipartisanship when the last administration was demolished by it and the democrats in opposition have been in favour of it and also the party is saying "gently caress the left" a lot. And again, the Democrats had to keep Joe Biden out of the room to prevent him giving away the farm to Republicans in Senate negotiations. Joe Biden's not some master strategic operator! He's the guy who trades his cow for loving magic beans!
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Nov 9, 2020 20:31
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Majorian posted:Without the Deus ex Machina of COVID he would have gotten flattened. This isn't a falsifiable statement. A similar statement could be made about any theoretical challenger including those further on the left.
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Nov 9, 2020 20:42
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Majorian posted:Without the Deus ex Machina of COVID he would have gotten flattened. Without the influence of Klaartu, Demon Lord of the 9th circle, Donald Trump never would've survived past age of 15, therefore.
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Nov 9, 2020 20:56
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Fojar38 posted:This isn't a falsifiable statement. A similar statement could be made about any theoretical challenger including those further on the left. True, but the poster I was responding to said this: Still Dismal posted:A venn diagram of the people who confidently predicted Biden would never win the nomination, then confidently predicted that he would lose to Trump, and are now confidently predicting he will be terrible in office. Obviously no one can definitively foretell the future and say whether or not Biden will do a good job. But saying, "Well, you were wrong about Biden's chances of being elected, so what do you know?" is a little disingenuous when A, Biden won by a pretty thin margin, and B, he was, without a doubt, helped by COVID. Seven Hundred Bee posted:Without the influence of Klaartu, Demon Lord of the 9th circle, Donald Trump never would've survived past age of 15, therefore. Are you really meaning to suggest that COVID is a made-up thing that had no effect on this election? Because that's what it sounds like you're suggesting.
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Nov 9, 2020 20:56
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