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Acebuckeye13 posted:There was some scuttlebutt before the election that Biden's cabinet wouldn't include any senators at all, and I think that's panning out. It's also honestly the best play for Biden, given the razor-thin senate margin means he can't afford to lose or risk losing any seats, even temporarily. They can't risk a drat house member; appointing a senator is suicide for the first six months of the admin. I see the chances approaching near zero
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Nov 24, 2020 16:35
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paternity suitor posted:I agree. It's human nature to color an experience based on the extreme and how it ends (peak end rule). The Trump presidency is going to be remember for COVID and him not conceding, and 2020 is going down as the worst year in living memory by a landslide. Trump, COVID, and 2020 are tied together for the rest of history. I think you're right--and not even 2020 like the (general) boredom. The heavy hitters are memory of overwhelming fear. Empty shelves. Mass graves. Confusing medical releases. Lost businesses. People who died (without their families there). Whether it happened to a particular person, they remember fear. And again, Trump was super visible and visibly connected to this, utterly inextricable. (In the West, it's blood-red skies also, which tbh for many people here was more immediately traumatizing than COVID. And the media stoked a ton of fear about civil unrest.) Just being able to go back to a movie theater--just relief--is going to be something that Biden gets adhered to him.
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Nov 24, 2020 16:52
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help a couple weeks ago I saw a graph comparing this election to past ones based on % of eligible voters, showing that bidens % of the electorate was enough to have him win every election since 1904 but did it ALSO show that trump would have won every one of those elections too?
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Nov 24, 2020 16:55
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Did those graphs adjust for the changing size of the US population? Because this is like every blockbuster every year blowing out the previous records. There's more people to buy tickets.
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Nov 24, 2020 16:58
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i say swears online posted:help Winning the presidency with less than 50% of the popular vote happens very rarely, so no, Trump would not have won many elections based on his percentage. Total number of votes, probably - but that's a function of turnout and national population. Nobody was going to get 70M votes when the entire population was 50M, for example.
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Nov 24, 2020 17:04
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doingitwrong posted:Did those graphs adjust for the changing size of the US population? I say swears online, I vague remember that infographic and I think it only showed Biden, but Im pretty sure the same factoid applies to Trump's turnout.
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Nov 24, 2020 17:05
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Deteriorata posted:Winning the presidency with less than 50% of the popular vote happens very rarely, so no, Trump would not have won many elections based on his percentage. And hell, there were several easily above Biden's margin of 51.1% (at present), so this chart or the recollection thereof sounds pretty fishy on both counts.
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Nov 24, 2020 17:06
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Deteriorata posted:Winning the presidency with less than 50% of the popular vote happens very rarely, so no, Trump would not have won many elections based on his percentage. Clearly you underestimate the powers of Tammany Hall
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Nov 24, 2020 17:13
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Sarcastro posted:And hell, there were several easily above Biden's margin of 51.1% (at present), so this chart or the recollection thereof sounds pretty fishy on both counts. If Trump had received 33% of the votes from eligible votes in 2016, that would be 76 million votes (beating Hillary by 11 million votes nationwide) and in 2008 that would be 75 million votes, beating Obama by 5.5 million votes.
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Nov 24, 2020 17:15
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Tibalt posted:I think you're missing what isso is describing. Trump received ~33% of the voters from the eligible voters - 69.9% of eligible voters voted, and 47.2% of those voters voted for Trump. thank you, this is what i meant. not talking hard numbers but trying to put the massive turnout increase in % perspective compared to past elections. i want to show just how impressive turnout was for both campaigns
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Nov 24, 2020 17:35
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Soooo... This is it, yeah? From here it's all much more obvious coup attempts via electoral college fuckery? https://twitter.com/marceelias/status/1331266314464321549?s=19
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Nov 24, 2020 17:53
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dwarf74 posted:Soooo... This is it, yeah? From here it's all much more obvious coup attempts via electoral college fuckery? But yeah, this has been over for weeks now.
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Nov 24, 2020 18:17
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Tibalt posted:I think you're missing what isso is describing. Trump received ~33% of the voters from the eligible voters - 69.9% of eligible voters voted, and 47.2% of those voters voted for Trump. Ah, that does make more sense, you're right.
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Nov 24, 2020 18:28
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Tibalt posted:We'll probably hear about an attempt to bribe or intimidate an elector that won't work, and we might have a minor fracas in Congress about accepting the results of the electoral vote. True, but much like the media acting like the Joker premiere meant incels were going to be shooting everybody in the streets, they built up a lot of anxiety about this specific thing. Admittedly the president himself was complicit,… Yeah, anyway, this is really good to see.
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Nov 24, 2020 18:30
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Tibalt posted:We'll probably hear about an attempt to bribe or intimidate an elector that won't work, and we might have a minor fracas in Congress about accepting the results of the electoral vote. What I'm getting at is that even the slight veneer of respectability is gone. Like anyone who's been saying "let the process play out" doesn't have much more room to procrastinate.
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Nov 24, 2020 18:36
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https://twitter.com/Redistrict/status/1331297711539298309 *extremely Steve Kornacki from Friday of election week voice* Well we just don't know exactly how those military and overseas votes are gonna come in, so you have to live in Probability Hell for another day. https://twitter.com/daveweigel/status/1331299183379296258 Which makes sense, if you're abroad it must be really embarrassing to see this stuff happen and have your friends and colleauges constantly asking you "Boy, your country sure is a piece of poo poo right now huh". As far as military goes, I think officers are overwhelmingly the majority of voters, and they sure as hell don't like Trump. That probably goes triple for members of the diplomatic corps. These are people who pride themselves in lifelong, bipartisan, apolitical civil service and imagine working in Lichtenstein for 25 years and knowing all the diplomatic and social ins and outs and all of a sudden some Christian book store owner has been appointed your boss and now wants to know if the embassy can dig up any dirt on Hunter Biden.
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Nov 24, 2020 19:18
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dwarf74 posted:Soooo... This is it, yeah? From here it's all much more obvious coup attempts via electoral college fuckery? The current hotness among the CHUD contingent has been to tell people to "read article 12 of the constitution!" Which is hilarious because the constitution doesn't have 12 articles and they mean amendments. And the reason they're saying "article" is because Trump tweeted out the same mistake and they are literally just repeating his tweets. zoux posted:Which makes sense, if you're abroad it must be really embarrassing to see this stuff happen and have your friends and colleauges constantly asking you "Boy, your country sure is a piece of poo poo right now huh". I've had the good fortune to be outside of the US a bunch of times during the Trump admin and once people find out I'm American it's generally a few short seconds before "dude what the hell is up with your president" comes up. Even from people who barely speak English. Jaxyon fucked around with this message at 19:24 on Nov 24, 2020 |
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Nov 24, 2020 19:20
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Good 538 article that matches observations that many Trump supporters are men with no friends. https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/could-social-alienation-among-some-trump-supporters-help-explain-why-polls-underestimated-trump-again/
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Nov 24, 2020 20:05
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https://twitter.com/redistrict/status/1331316373419663361?s=21 New York, California, and Illinois are still counting ballots and are likely to change. Arkansas had the Clinton effect. Utah had no McMullin third party.
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Nov 24, 2020 22:05
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Pick posted:Good 538 article that matches observations that many Trump supporters are men with no friends.
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Nov 24, 2020 22:38
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Pick posted:Good 538 article that matches observations that many Trump supporters are men with no friends. That is an interesting selection of people there. "To determine ones social network, respondents were asked to name people with whom they had discussed 'important personal matters or concerns' in the past six months." Trump had the share of people who either refuse to talk about their feelings, or refused to hand out names to pollsters covered. If some of these people legitimately hadn't talked about anything they consider important with anyone, for half a year, that is just depressingly sad. I feel pity for that particular subset. Who are those? Bitter old men who chased away their relatives? Disgruntled alcoholics which only make grunting noises during work? Redditors who have absolutely no friends and are a burden on their parents? In a sort of healthy society, those should not be a sizable demographic. Imagine you get a call for the first time in 6 months and it's just a pollster... 
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Nov 24, 2020 22:39
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I imagine it’s more like guys who just don’t hold hard beliefs about a lot of things, and also people who really don’t want to talk about their emotions or problems with others. I’m sure these guys have jobs, but talk gets limited to work, sports, weather, etc. They don’t have a partner to talk about personal stuff. They might have some friends, but just like work, any talk is kept to low stakes topics. Talking about money issues, or emotional issues shows you’re weak, so it gets swept under the rug.
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Nov 24, 2020 23:10
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lurker2006 posted:tbh that's male adults in general. I have lots of friends <  >
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Nov 24, 2020 23:13
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Pick posted:Good 538 article that matches observations that many Trump supporters are men with no friends. This seems like a chicken-egg situation to me. It's almost certainly self-reinforcing.
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Nov 24, 2020 23:24
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Acebuckeye13 posted:I have lots of friends < But did you talk to them in the last six months? Did you discuss something you find important? Could you name such a person? Didn't think so!
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Nov 24, 2020 23:25
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cant cook creole bream posted:But did you talk to them in the last six months? Did you discuss something you find important? Could you name such a person? Didn't think so! That said, they really need to be more explicit about what these parameters are, because "what [I] find important" is, for example, which Star Trek characters should hook up
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Nov 24, 2020 23:28
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Pick posted:Good 538 article that matches observations that many Trump supporters are men with no friends. quote:One pollster’s explanation for why the polls got it wrong
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Nov 24, 2020 23:52
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People with not many social contacts are way more likely to fall down the QAnon hole as well
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Nov 24, 2020 23:57
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fool of sound posted:This seems like a chicken-egg situation to me. It's almost certainly self-reinforcing. Yes, when they get disinvited to Thanksgivings and social functions because of their chuddiness.
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Nov 25, 2020 00:04
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At this point it's a well known fact that social media algorithms are actively targeting and radicalizing white men and nothing is being done about it. There's tons of articles https://www.cnn.com/2019/03/17/tech/youtube-facebook-twitter-radicalization-new-zealand/index.html
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Nov 25, 2020 00:21
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Pick posted:Good 538 article that matches observations that many Trump supporters are men with no friends. Loneliness and isolation are a huge problem in our society, and for older men in particular. Hidden Brain did an episode on men and loneliness, and it was loving tragic. One guy in the podcast: "I was in my apartment. And one of the fixtures in the apartment was a post that runs floor to ceiling and a banister runs out of that. And the post became my friend. I would hug the post. I would hug the post for all it was worth because I was getting some kind of feedback physically. It was at that point I realized I have got to do something because when you get to the place where you need to hug a post to feel something that you need, that's - if that's not a wake-up call, nothing is." https://www.npr.org/2018/03/19/594719471/guys-we-have-a-problem-how-american-masculinity-creates-lonely-men
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Nov 25, 2020 00:36
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This is sort of interesting --- MA requires a 3% post-election random audit of results. This one identified 0.07% error rate, and has some ideas on what sort of mistakes can happen: https://www.sec.state.ma.us/ele/elepostelection/2020-Audit-Report-Narrative.pdf quote:Of the 66 precincts audited, 47 reported no changes in the number of ballots cast, while 14
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Nov 25, 2020 00:50
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Honestly, one of the things that's been surprising over this whole business is just how precise and transparent the voting counting process is. (At least in states with decent transparency laws, there are 8 states still that don't require a paper record of electronic voting and good thing none of them are swing states - GA and PA were among them in 2016 before statutory changes) Also, despite the fact that this has been the most scrutinized election in modern history, it will become an article of faith among conservatives that this election was "fishy". They may not go so far as to think a million votes got changed or whatever but ten years from now you'll ask your racist aunt some question at Thanksgiving and she'll spin some tale about how "you know they can make the vote whatever they want, remember when they cheated Trump" and you'll wonder whether you should even bother. Save your breath. e: Look, polls! https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/status/1331404288149643264 zoux fucked around with this message at 02:15 on Nov 25, 2020 |
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Nov 25, 2020 01:42
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zoux posted:Also, despite the fact that this has been the most scrutinized election in modern history, it will become an article of faith among conservatives that this election was "fishy". They may not go so far as to think a million votes got changed or whatever but ten years from now you'll ask your racist aunt some question at Thanksgiving and she'll spin some tale about how "you know they can make the vote whatever they want, remember when they cheated Trump" and you'll wonder whether you should even bother. Save your breath. timestamp'd https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=O7VaXlMvAvk&t=185s this is going to be a real phenomenon that makes people go further in their news rabbit holes and maybe polling will continue to struggle because of it. it's a real unknown; with more comparisons to the gilded era it seems like the party machines are losing control of the narrative
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Nov 25, 2020 01:57
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paternity suitor posted:Loneliness and isolation are a huge problem in our society, and for older men in particular. Hidden Brain did an episode on men and loneliness, and it was loving tragic. This is very interesting. CVS has been talking about addressing a “loneliness epidemic“ which I took to be a kind of cynical ploy to find a new thing to sell solutions against. But this angle opens up a much more compelling (and terrifying) need than just “people being alone and kind of sad”. Meanwhile, in Japan (from the cyberpunk dystopia thread). Taintrunner posted:finally, goons.... we're saved doingitwrong fucked around with this message at 02:36 on Nov 25, 2020 |
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Nov 25, 2020 02:34
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doingitwrong posted:This is very interesting. CVS has been talking about addressing a “loneliness epidemic“ which I took to be a kind of cynical ploy to find a new thing to sell solutions against. But this angle opens up a much more compelling (and terrifying) need than just “people being alone and kind of sad”. I do hope that friendship and community is embraced as a health issue. People are comfortable doing most anything if it’s “for your health”. I swear it used to be considered weird to take walks for no reason, but now that it’s “getting your steps in” it’s socially acceptable. Yes I used to be “guy who takes walks” at work before fit bits normalized it 😛
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Nov 25, 2020 03:01
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Edit: moved to Q&A threads
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Nov 25, 2020 04:21
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Ive been saying it for years but not having regular social networks opens you up to some dark poo poo. I might have also said the decline in church attendance since it is the last bastion of social networks for many people was not an unambiguously good thing but Im not fully convinced of my position and think I may be a fraud.
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Nov 25, 2020 04:34
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Barudak posted:Ive been saying it for years but not having regular social networks opens you up to some dark poo poo. Churches have upsides and downsides but mostly I'm with you on that. I'm trying to remember the quote, or where I heard it, or what the gently caress, but the idea that there are a few things that can seriously stand up to a person's materialistic greed, to the point where they can at times supersede all greed: family community/neighborhood faith (from which values often derive, or feel credible in the context of). So capitalism (grr capitalism!!), but also more businesses/business interests, have very, very, very, very successfully broken these things down, because they do genuinely stand in the way of behaviors which are profit-generating. e: which is to say, 
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Nov 25, 2020 04:41
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Wasserman news. https://twitter.com/redistrict/status/1331483636613459969?s=21 I'm glad she got reelected, but that is a pretty significant difference.
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Nov 25, 2020 07:25
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