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VitalSigns
Sep 3, 2011

DarklyDreaming posted:

Yeah similar turnout to the November election means it's gonna end in a similar way. Close but with a Dem majority

If it ends the same as the November election the Republicans win both races, since Perdue got more votes than Ossoff, and Rs got more votes than Ds in the open seat in November

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VitalSigns
Sep 3, 2011

James Garfield posted:

That isn't necessarily true. The early voting appears to have been more D than in the general election. 538 also thinks the November special election results narrowly favored Warnock because the margin between the first and second place candidates is predictive.

This is an argument that it won't end the same as November, not an argument that if it ends the same Democrats would win (they would lose, because they got fewer votes than Republicans in November)

VitalSigns
Sep 3, 2011

Herstory Begins Now posted:

i'm going to give big beefy probes to anyone who runs in yelling about how the election is over when we're at like 80% of rural votes counted and 10% of urban/suburban votes counted

Also I highly, highly recommend not spending hours tonight emotionally investing in stupid needle bullshit.

It's quarantine what else am I going to do, binge watch the Simpsons again?

VitalSigns
Sep 3, 2011

Grouchio posted:

Out of curiosity, why was the race in New Jersey so tight? (Virginia I get with the schools/lack of schooling anger) Covid restrictions resulting in a general unhappiness amongst the populace? Any other factors?

Maybe it just goes to show how we successfully used the Virginia Model as a model for the nation

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