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Oracle
Oct 9, 2004

BigFactory posted:

Didn’t gen x men break harder for trump than boomers?

Older GenX yes but two things contribute to that:
1) Trump and the Republicans open’r up strategy was basically sold as ‘gently caress boomers let them die number must go up’ which decreased boomer turnout for Trump

2) it probably helped increase numbers of GenX because they hated boomers before it was cool. The older ones are also racist as poo poo.

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Oracle
Oct 9, 2004

Rea posted:

I wonder what the pretty sizable gap between Ossoff and Warnock's margins is about, assuming this poll is even close to accurate.

Sexism vs. Loeffler and 'he's a preacher' vs two rich white generic males.

Oracle
Oct 9, 2004

Morrow posted:

It's going to be so strange not having presidential Twitter feuds. I'm curious how people respond to just the different public image of the presidency.

Relieved and happy they can go back to ignoring boring politics instead of waking up and opening their social media with that vague uneasy feeling of ‘what fresh hell has that idiot unleashed today.’

Oracle
Oct 9, 2004

clean ayers act posted:

Why was W so popular in the Hispanic community? Was it just his support for an immigration plan?

He was from Texas, had a brother who was married to a Hispanic woman, spoke a little Spanish and did actual outreach to the population.

Oracle
Oct 9, 2004

Sanguinia posted:

It's easy for remote learning to fail when administrators and parents are working hand in hand to actively sabotage it because they'll do literally anything including hurt their own children to make sure theyre getting their free daycare in the classroom.

Uh, hi, as a parent of two remote learners doing everything possible to make this work because I will be good and goddamned my kids are going to school in person while there's a pandemic raging, you're an rear end in a top hat. Kids do not have either the self-control to keep themselves from screwing around online instead of paying attention to class or the self-motivation to get the MOUNDS of homework assigned every day that's supposed to be completed during 'independent learning' without nigh-constant supervision. And that's teenagers, not even grade schoolers, who are way worse. And as someone who's spent entire days in online conferences it is soul sucking to sit and listen to other people talk hour after hour with short breaks in between as a full grown adult, it SUCKS as a method of learning anything. College kids are struggling with online learning, and that has nothing to do with daycare. It is far from optimal for anyone as a main source of education.

Oracle
Oct 9, 2004

Buffer posted:

I say this only because it's not always obvious to me when I do it: this reads as incredibly hostile. Also a little bit like that TX bridesmaid who was all "but this is her wedding" to the wedding photographer who walked out because she had kids and they'd hidden that the groom had covid (the wedding photographer got covid).
I'm seeing this from several people and apparently the part where I emphasize that I am NOT INTERESTED IN IN PERSON LEARNING AND TOTALLY SUPPORT NOT FORCING TEACHERS BACK INTO THE CLASSROOM is getting missed in the urge to pile on to my saying remote learning sucks, so I'll put it in all caps, again, for those in the back:

I AM NOT INTERESTED IN SENDING MY KIDS IN PERSON WITH OTHER KIDS IN A CLASSROOM AND PUTTING TEACHERS AND STAFF AT RISK. AT ALL. UNTIL EVERYONE INVOLVED IS VACCINATED THAT POSSIBLY CAN BE. My kids have been remote learning since March. We have never left stage 3 personally. They will not go back into a classroom until local cases are at 0 for 14 days or everyone in school who can be has been vaccinated.

Now that we've cleared that up:

It doesn't change the fact that by and large, online learning has SUUUUUCKED. My kids have to take online gym class. Its a required class to graduate. Its incredibly stupid to try and do online gym class, especially when cameras are not required to be on (which, again, not Karening here, TOTALLY UNDERSTAND WHY, so again, don't jump down my throat) but for God's sake, how about we push that requirement off a year and let them do it at a time when its feasible to do it in person? Because logging that you did X amount of minutes of exercise a week is an exercise alright -- an exercise in lying for the kids who aren't active. I work from home. I am working while at home. I do not have the time or the desire to stand over my kid with a whistle and a clipboard to make sure they're doing ten jumping jacks. That's just one example.


quote:

It also isn't backed by anything at all except your own statement / anecdote, and isn't in anyway my lived experience(which aligns more closely with the experts in the thread). As a parent of grade schoolers, my kids are definitely learning, and while there's an extra burden in terms of monitoring them and keeping them on-task if we want them to do well, I don't know that this is any higher than before.
Then you are in a distinct minority, because Here, have some data to go with my 'anecdote.'

quote:

After the U.S. education system fractured into Zoom screens last spring, experts feared millions of children would fall behind. Hard evidence now shows they were right.

A flood of new data — on the national, state and district levels — finds students began this academic year behind. Most of the research concludes students of color and those in high-poverty communities fell further behind their peers, exacerbating long-standing gaps in American education.

A study released this week by McKinsey & Co. estimates that the shift to remote school in the spring set White students back by one to three months in math, while students of color lost three to five months. As the coronavirus pandemic persists through this academic year, McKinsey said, losses will escalate.

“I think we should be very concerned about the risk of a lost generation of students,” said former education secretary John B. King Jr., who is now president of Education Trust, an advocacy and research group focused on equity issues.

The McKinsey study echoes a half dozen other national reports released in recent days. They all find that students regressed because of lost classroom time in the spring, particularly in math, though the reports vary in degree of the losses and in disparities among student groups.

Separately, data released by multiple school districts show a sharp increase in failing grades this fall, particularly for the most vulnerable students.

quote:

The distractions and them going off task and stuff are more visible to us, sure, but eh the alternative was ordering some number of teachers and kids to die. That's certainly something you could use a utilitarian calculus to justify, but where *doesn't* that apply? Take a long enough view and you can kill as many people as you want for the greater good.
One more time: just because I dislike online learning, doesn't mean I am advocating for 'ordering some number of teachers and kids to die.' Outdoor learning was one alternative, came with its own risks and headaches (and before you bitch about weather yeah, I live in a place that actually has weather. Kids won't melt. Coats and canopies are cheaper than ipads and chromebooks). Our government not being run by a bunch of idiots was another but hey water under the bridge.

You can dislike the poo poo out of something and still understand that its necessary, but pooh poohing concerns with online learning because 'parents just hate being around their kids' or 'parents are just lazy and want babysitters' in one breath then going 'classroom management is a skill' and 'teachers aren't babysitters and are skilled professionals and should be treated like one' in the other is kind of contradictory, no? Teaching is loving HARD. Controlling a bunch of easily distracted kids attention is HARD, and even harder when you cannot take screens away as screens are what they are learning on. Making sure kids are not only doing work but doing it correctly, figuring out where they went wrong and then making sure they actually understand is HARD. This is why we need teachers in the first place. A lot of that has been put on parents who are in a lot of cases also trying to hold down full time jobs during a pandemic if they're lucky enough to still be employed. If you're extra lucky you're able to work from home while you do it. Add to that the fact that, as many others have pointed out, online learning was an afterthought at best for the majority of school districts, it ALSO takes skill that not a lot of teachers have for some reason (and makes the ones that are tech savvy really stand out) and things are really not great this year in the vast majority of classes.

quote:

Anyway, that was my college online experience the last time I took a class(when I was employed by the university and this was like basically free), but that has more to do with nobody taking distance learning terribly seriously and just sitting an adjunct down in front of blackboard and saying go, teach, and cashing the checks. Even this wasn't without merit, it was just kinda insulting to take a discrete refresher and get a half-assed khan academy retread where the professor posted 1 obviously pre-canned discussion question a week - it felt like paying just for the course credit(and it was basically free). The async nature was loving aces though.
Async is great. Async is also not going on at the K-12 level in my experience. Attendance is taken and mandatory at the times the classes are scheduled, and every teacher does it differently. Some will mark kids absent if they show up five minutes late. Some will let kids into class late, some will not. Some require the student to post a comment or type the word 'here' in chat, some don't. Some start class late to allow for attendance/technical issues, some don't. The kids only have class five hours a day then are expected to do 'independent learning' for the rest of the time they would normally be in school. There was some metric for having to do 30 minutes of homework a day. Teachers apparently took that as meaning 30 minutes of homework a day PER CLASS. These kids have 7 classes. That's about three and a half hours of homework a night. After spending five hours online with five minute breaks between classes and a half hour lunch period.

Sanguinia posted:

Lol. Yeah, I was being super hostile to people nobody on this forum will ever meet, which somehow justified an attack on my character that ended with ME eating a probe when I responded. Clearly the entire exchange was my fault. I'll make sure not to communicate any experiences or opinions which might even theoretically be taken as an insult-by-proxy by some poor suffering parent again, lesson loving learned. As if I dont have to coddle and disemble enough with the ones I have to deal with in real life.
People on this forum are still people regardless of whether or not you ever meet them in real life, with real struggles and real issues, just like you. And in a time when pretty much all interaction is online its a lot more important to keep that in mind. I'm sorry your in-person parents are apparently all total sociopathic dicks with no regard for your well being. I'm sorry you ate a probe. I'm even sorry I called you an rear end in a top hat, though swinging from downplaying being hostile to 'people you'll never meet' to treating being called an rear end in a top hat as an 'attack on your character' kind of smacks of a double standard. We're all of suffering from this, we're all feeling pretty goddamn fed up with the insanity of our fellow human beings that are making this drag on so much longer than it needs to in the United States and elsewhere, we've all got cabin fever and we're all stressed the hell out.

Oracle fucked around with this message at 14:25 on Dec 19, 2020

Oracle
Oct 9, 2004

Buffer posted:

Yea, I'm sorry for that. I realized I had implied that after reading sanguina's thing, had a whole thing typed up that *at worst* we were all in violent agreement about 80-90% of this(pieces of this left above) and then didn't post it. Should've re-read more. :smith:
Yeah I've tried to reply a few times but thread moving and lack of time have killed like three attempts. I feel you.


quote:

See there's just this huge regional variance here. Like where I am, they went remote in spring, it was in no way actually prepared for and was a shitshow - just all kinds of rank stupid like you describe here. The teachers union said remote only in the summer and they actually prepared for it and then fall was a little rocky, but now it really does feel like school. They do gym cameras on, on a yoga mat. It's not ideal for everything but it mostly works.

My siblings, OTOH scattered across this demon cracker nation, see it as a shitshow every time they go remote. They've only seen the spring version. What you describe is this.
They had time to prepare here over summer too, it just feels like noone did a drat thing while the board hemmed and hawed and maintained radio silence. Man, if this has taught anyone ANYTHING, if there is one thing to take away from this pandemic, if you get covid brain damamge and forget everything else, please for the love of GOD remember: LOCAL. ELECTIONS. MATTER. Our health dept is headed by an amazing human being who has gone above and beyond and done great. Our school board... not so much.


quote:

That's not data or even really an actual source in support of remote learning itself as inherently flawed or like even worse, really. I don't doubt that outcomes overall are down - poo poo is hosed and a lot of our already existing educational problems like available parent attention, digital divide, etc. are exacerbated by all kinds of things in the pandemic.

Not to mention the social / development aspect from kids not seeing other kids. Like I'm not saying this is good - I'm saying you and others seem to be making a wider claim that remote learning has to suck that just flat out isn't backed up by anything but the fact that we currently suck at it in a lot of places.

Like I don't disagree that it sucks in a lot of places, so this might just be more violent agreement and talking past each other.
Online learning has potential but a) in America with schools having to hold bake sales for basic needs and requiring parents to bring in supplies for the year like pencils and tissues, its almost guaranteed to exacerbate inequality based on income and give you mostly crappy outcomes except in places with either amazingly tech savvy teachers and school district employees or a shitton of money and the will to throw it at this particular problem, and usually both. The districts with the kind of money to throw at the problem already have students that have their own computers at home and high speed internet and two parent high earning income households and etc. The ones that don't... don't. And as we've seen, the high earning suburbs are some of the shittiest at wanting kids in person no questions asked MAGA hoax blah blah (I'm looking at you, Chicago collar counties).

quote:

I'm going to apologize to you again for this, because it obviously upset you and you didn't deserve that.
Thank you, I appreciate it. Like I (and you, and a few other people) have said, everyone's just loving Done(tm) right now, the holidays aren't helping, and idiots keep on idioting. I absolutely dread Christmas and New Year's at this point, its almost worse than not having a break because of what's going to happen, we all know is going to happen, and yet we're all powerless to stop.

Oracle
Oct 9, 2004

Eeyo posted:

The real trick to this though is if there exist jobs which can be exported to those resource exploitation communities. Like what does a jobs guarantee platform look like if there aren't viable jobs to put in those communities? Like you need the trifecta of 1) similar salary/benefits 2) can re-use skills and don't require huge amounts of training 3) located in the communities affected. Of course there's always the option of just giving them money, but I don't know if that's what they really want in the end.
Fixing the environmental degradation that occurred from decades of resource exploitation is a job that can easily exist in those communities. It betters their community, gives them meaningful hard physical labor (MANS WORK GRUNT) to do and is actually needed badly in those areas. Once mitigation is complete hire them to basically be game wardens/park rangers and tour guides and poo poo, places like W. Virginia are gorgeous with lots of natural beauty, rapids, camping/fishing/hunting etc, all things those guys tend to do on their off hours anyway.

Oracle
Oct 9, 2004

Rust Martialis posted:

I comissioned some fast field polls on the above on did people expect the poster to eat a sixer:

ABC - 93.5%
WaPo/NYT - 96.2%
Rasmussen - Trump 53%

loving Rasmussen.

You’d think he’d have been banned for his 543 parachute accounts.

Oracle
Oct 9, 2004

TheDeadlyShoe posted:

if I were Collins, or any other prospective swing vote.... there's a very real chance of violent attacks. With how worked up everyone is it cant be discounted.

Speaking of which, some very confused, high, or stupid person left a severed pigs head at Pelosi’s house and vandalized itbecause McConnell didn’t vote for the 2K.

Edit: looking at the pictures this strikes me as false flag, that is the lamest anarchy symbol I’ve ever seen, it looks like captain America’s A and that tagging is almost girly in it’s penmanship. Republicans trying to pin blame on Pelosi while driving a wedge between center and left?

Oracle fucked around with this message at 05:28 on Jan 2, 2021

Oracle
Oct 9, 2004

Seph posted:

Yeah, early on I definitely bought into the idea that Trump could be more moderate than he seemed, and that it was all just a performance to get the right wing chuds to vote for him. Some of my moderately conservative coworkers (who are now Lincoln Project Republicans) figured the same thing. In retrospect it was probably just a collective denial that someone this crazy could ever be President. It was a simpler time.

The fact he used to be a Democrat likely threw a lot of people off, the fact he was on TV and they'd seen him edited to be a normal (if entertaining) human being, the fact that politics has become a performative three ring circus instead of statesman making a case for what they believe and could do for the country and the fact he literally told every single audience what they wanted to hear and let them decide that the things he said they didn't like was just him pulling the wool over the rubes' eyes to get elected and the things they liked was him speaking the truth about his stances/'telling it like it is' combined with twenty years' worth of lovingly curated anti-Clinton propaganda from rightwing media all combined to give a malignant narcissist the highest office in the land.

Oracle
Oct 9, 2004

Leon Sumbitches posted:

Is there a third type? The Republican senator who is eyeing a 2024 bid and wants to get him out of the running and open the field?

No anti-Trumper is winning the nod in 2024 without some serious retooling of the GOPs ‘winner take all’ primary rules. It’s how he got in in the first place.

Oracle
Oct 9, 2004

exquisite tea posted:

This is why I say bring on the sexbots. The realities of modern life have made physical intimacy harder if not impossible for huge segments of the population and it's only going to get worse, let's stop stigmatizing artificial love and hand out the sexbots just so that people have something else to do with their time.

On the other hand this just contributes to the depersonification and objectification of the opposite sex so let's maybe fix society instead?

Oracle
Oct 9, 2004

goethe.cx posted:

It could also be people treating the question as a proxy for Trump support. Like maybe they don't "really" think the election was stolen but they say it was to support their god-emperor.

A least some proportion of the answers were likely this, but too few for my comfort.

Oracle
Oct 9, 2004

VikingofRock posted:

I honestly suspect that this is a big party of why young people have lower turnout numbers. I'm in my early 30s, and I've voted in every presidential and midterm election since 2008. The only time I haven't had to update my address was in 2016, because I lived in the same place as in 2014. I can't imagine that my experience is particularly uncommon. Young people move around a lot, and I think the extra paperwork of having to keep your address up to date (and the increased chance of moving right before an election) probably accounts for a big chunk of the youth turnout gap.

So what do you do about changing your address, say for bills or for your drivers license (assuming you have one)? I assume you’re moving around but at least staying in the same county or close by for a majority of those moves, not like moving across country or from state to state every two years. It seems to me that’s where the weak link is and where we should concentrate our efforts, like the motor voter bill.

Oracle
Oct 9, 2004

Grouchio posted:

What then would be a good strategy for the FBI to pursue in tracking potential seditionists down? Would they, for instance, go the informant route?

Talk to their coworkers neighbors and relatives is more like it.

Oracle
Oct 9, 2004

GhostofJohnMuir posted:

oh yeah, i didn't mean to imply the latter would be a problem. if democrats are learning how to not give republicans weapons to attack democracy, then i'm all for it

He really needs to just scrap it and declare a do-over. It was hosed from the get-go because of covid, Trump's interference was just icing on the poo poo cake.

As far as I know there's nothing unconstitutional about doing so, either. It says 'at least once every ten years' not 'only once every ten years.' The kicker would be how to get Congress to fund another one.

Oracle
Oct 9, 2004

Neo_Crimson posted:

Who's even left to oppose him that the base doesn't hate, or is a Trumpist themselves?

The Rock'll run on a platform of unity as a reasonable Republican and pull a ton of Independents/temporarily embarrassed Republicans, old wrestling/movie fans, and low interest casual voters.

In short, it'll be noone you'd expect. Three years is too far out.

Oracle
Oct 9, 2004

Grammarchist posted:

If Trump's still alive he's going to literally turn the GOP Primary into a reality show where every contestant is expected to fellate him for the next three years. Then he'll back Ivanka and turn against her inexplicably when he decides he wants to run sometime after the Nevada primary.

This right here. He's going to milk his endorsement for all its worth.

Oracle
Oct 9, 2004

James Garfield posted:

I could believe that many of the people leaving the GOP were already voting Democratic and took January as a reason to update their registration. It takes some real motivated reasoning to say it's good for Republicans but I don't know that it's meaningfully bad yet, either.

If we haven't seen an uptick in people identifying as Dem vs. Indy I would say that's a pretty premature belief.

Oracle
Oct 9, 2004

BiggerBoat posted:

You should try it anyway just to see what happens. Report back.

Knowing the average age of the local Elk Lodge membership you'd probably give the three active members left a fatal heart attack just for being a new person in the building who's under 75 and become president by default.

Oracle
Oct 9, 2004

Grouchio posted:

I cannot stress enough how true this is. The American public's generalization of Latin America is biting the moderate democrats firmly up their asses.

IIRC the various nationalities more or less look down on each other on the basis of race and social class.

This x100. Mexicans disdain Guatemalans and Guatemalans look down on Salvadorans and they all look sideways at Venezuelans and and and... its just like Europe. Or Asia.

Oracle
Oct 9, 2004

Leon Sumbitches posted:

I remember having a first generation Vietnamese friend in highschool explain to me how Vietnamese people were seen in other Asian nations, and how in turn they saw other Asian nations. Not gonna repeat what she said, cuz I'll probably get it wrong, but it opened my eyes to this stuff.

The important thing to remember is if they’re over 50 and not Japanese pretty much everyone HAAAAATES the Japanese and under 50 and not mainland Chinese they haaaaate the Mainland Chinese. The former because of WWII occupations and atrocities, the latter because they’re fast becoming the Ugly Americans of the 21st century.

And yeah every country has their stereotypes of every other country, and inside the country... well let’s just say there’s a South in every country and everyone knows where it is (very much urban/rural based).

Oracle
Oct 9, 2004

Grape posted:

Once again let's play:

1. Northern European?

2. Or internet atheist raised in insanely Protestant part of the US and doesn't think he's internalized insane thoughts about Catholics?

Yeah Catholics in the US are kind of odd ducks. Central/South American catholics still have some of that liberation theology going on, some American Catholics are just as bad as Protestants anymore (usually the really rich ones) while others are very blue collar/working class union Dems still (though lost a lot of those to Reagan). Then you got the wackos like Opus Dei and the social activist nuns and Father Michael Pfleger. (oh drat, he got caught up in the child sex abuse too??)

Oracle
Oct 9, 2004

BougieBitch posted:

To be fair that doesn't really prove anything, since that polling is for self-identified Catholics whereas "practicing" would presumably mean attending weekly services and otherwise tied up in that milieu. If nothing else, I think the statement "practicing (religion) will connect more with a more pro-religion party" is basically a tautology - the point isn't even that it's an especially meaningful divide between the existing parties (both are essentially pro-Christian, just Dems are nondenominational) but that if the Republican Party as an organ did a better job exploiting that fault line in a non-racist way they could reasonably pry voters away from the Dems, who may only have Catholic support as a function of the racial distribution of the religion relative to Evangelicals and the history with the Kennedy family.

The KKK had Catholics on the list right under Jews and blacks, and it was the primary reason for discrimination against the Irish at the turn of the last century. There are places in the U.S. where Catholics are still not considered Christian because they 'worship the Pope.' its bigotry but its not quite racism. Only recently (post-1973) have Catholics and Protestants been on the same side religiously and that was due to cynical manipulation of the abortion issue to get the huge number of Catholics into the tent of segregation by another name.

Oracle
Oct 9, 2004

Bird in a Blender posted:

Ha, that’s assuming the Republicans want to do anything at all. They barely got anything done while they were in power, and the playbook for Obama was to stall, hinder, and delay everything as much as possible. That playbook is open again for Biden.

As long as the Dems can keep rolling out at least somewhat popular plans like this, and keep harping on how they did it without any Republican support, it should help them next year. That’s a lot of ifs though.

I think Biden has learned some lessons from 09 and 10 is that you have to do things that benefit people immediately and you have to win the messaging game. Dems let Republicans set the tone for the stimulus bill, and made it really unpopular, even with people it helped. Didn’t help that TARP had huge handouts to corporations instead of directly benefiting the public.

I honestly don't think the Republicans have anyone left that knows how to get anything done or do anything but obstruct. Like the institutional knowledge is just gone, most of their experienced people are dead, retired, or lost election and most of those leaving are likely doing so because they're no longer being listened to by the extremist majority. Look at how incompetent Trump's whole administration was because they just plain did not know the rules of how to accomplish things legally. The whole party's rotten now.

Oracle
Oct 9, 2004

generic one posted:

I fully realize that’s the norm, specifically the president’s party losing seats in the midterm, but I feel like it’s still gonna be unpredictable, especially if Trump gets a lot of visibility campaigning for candidates he’s backing. He won’t be on the ballot, but that kind of media attention could give a lotta people a fresh reminder of his relationship with the Republican Party.

Totally baseless speculation, of course. Just something I’ve been thinking about.

Trump's not campaigning for anyone, noone'll let him get away with stiffing them on venues because he's no longer the president. He'll grift and send out press releases and golf. Maybe do an event or two in Florida. That's it.

generic one posted:

I fully realize that’s the norm, specifically the president’s party losing seats in the midterm, but I feel like it’s still gonna be unpredictable, especially if Trump gets a lot of visibility campaigning for candidates he’s backing. He won’t be on the ballot, but that kind of media attention could give a lotta people a fresh reminder of his relationship with the Republican Party.

Totally baseless speculation, of course. Just something I’ve been thinking about.
The Dems are already going to lose a few seats due to redistricting. It just depends on whether those seats are in state controlled by Dems or Republicans as to whose seat gets the axe (for instance, in Illinois, Mary Miller is likely toast).

Oracle
Oct 9, 2004

axeil posted:

https://twitter.com/gelliottmorris/status/1382356349976203264?s=20

https://twitter.com/gelliottmorris/status/1382356621972672516?s=20

https://twitter.com/gelliottmorris/status/1382361862378033156?s=20

G. Elliot Morris (The Economist's polling guy/modeler) is pointing out that partisan non-response still seems to be occurring and it might be making Biden's approval numbers look better than they are in reality.

I think the only way to fix this is to apply some pretty heavy past vote weights because there's a chunk of the country that just simply isn't replying to polls. E.g. that woman from 2016 who famously screamed TRUMP and slammed the phone down when polled.


edit: there's also a really good article that Pew Research did on this partisan non-response phenomenon that illustrates how it can lead to inaccurate horserace polls.

https://www.pewresearch.org/methods/2021/03/02/what-2020s-election-poll-errors-tell-us-about-the-accuracy-of-issue-polling/

I find it hard to believe a Trumpist Republican would be able to resist going on at length about how much Biden sucks to anyone that calls.

More likely response is just plain down as more people screen calls and just don't answer/have autoblockers on.

Oracle
Oct 9, 2004

BiggerBoat posted:

Dumb question but when you get a polling call on you smart phone does it say "potential spam" or does it actually say like "Rasmussen Polling" or something that identifies them? I'd have no trouble answering a call if I had time and knew what it was but gently caress if I'm gonna answer unknown numbers or call them back if they leave a message.

Depends, did you sign up for the super special 4.99 a month program that tells you what the calls are relating to? If yes, then they'll tell you whether its spam, a political call, someone selling something etc. If not, you'll be lucky if it just says 'Spam Risk.'

I personally let all calls I don't recognize go to voicemail, and if I get two calls from the same number that don't leave a message I block them by hand and assume its an autodialer.

Oracle
Oct 9, 2004

Crosby B. Alfred posted:

With Trump gone... do you think he'll flip voting back? I am also a little confused with Florida still becoming even redder... Covid has continually hurt the economy along with climate change and general cost of living increases.

Florida has a steady influx of racist old retirees from northern states who hate paying taxes for poo poo like schools.

Oracle
Oct 9, 2004

Grouchio posted:

How much of those 2020 results were Qanon coming out of the woodwork to vote for what they thought was 'the decisive vote' though? :thunk:

Lots of extremely low info voters who only knew they liked Trump. 2022 will tell if they come out without him on the ballot. My money says no, they're pissed and think its all rigged since he lost so won't waste their time.

Oracle
Oct 9, 2004

Lead out in cuffs posted:

Florida's main source of population growth is rich old white people moving there to retire. As long as that demographic keeps skewing Republican, and barring a major political upheaval, Florida isn't going blue any time soon.

They aren't anywhere near all rich, but they are definitely white and racist af.

Oracle
Oct 9, 2004

Sanguinia posted:

I'd really like to know how Salt Lake City got more blue and yet the incumbent Democrat still lost. I can get a district getting more blue and that not being blue enough to overcome the Red Tide, but that one doesn't make sense to my brain because it was already blue-ish.

They've historically voted like R+50. R+25 is trending blue as gently caress comparatively while still being blood red.

Oracle
Oct 9, 2004

Sanguinia posted:

How about that redistricting huh? Looks significantly less bad than the doomsayers thought, though New York being less than 100 people from not losing a seat is kind of a bummer even if they're going to for sure kill and R doing it, since it'll just get replaced by a Texas R.

Better than MN losing a seat which is what would've happened if NY hadn't. You can rely on NY to stay blue at least.

Oracle
Oct 9, 2004

I have to wonder how much of the Trump support is being unwilling to admit they were wrong or duped. I’m also curious as to what they’d do if Trump isn’t on the ballot or runs third party.

Oracle
Oct 9, 2004

BiggerBoat posted:

For now, the MAGA's seem content to drive loud trucks and hang huge flags from them.
And call for a Christofascist state and storm the nation's capital. Vanilla ISIS indeed.

Oracle
Oct 9, 2004

Given how some of the old timers still rant about how Kennedy stole the 1960 election yeah, I don’t expect them to ever shut up about it.

Oracle
Oct 9, 2004

ShadowHawk posted:

For context isn't congressional approval typically something like 10%?

I think the highest its been recently (by which I mean since 1990s?) is like 35%

Oracle
Oct 9, 2004

GhostofJohnMuir posted:

it makes me wonder if republicans in states pulling unemployment benefits early will see even a smidge of blowback

this isn't voters thinking their politicians support a theoretical piece of legislation they're actually on the record as opposing, this is a tangible benefit being visibly ended by their politicians. maybe it will be enough to bridge the insane disconnect between policies people support and the people they vote for

Voter suppression tends to be the reason those pols stay in office in places like MS. The voters who currently support them will aw shucks guess the free rides over and excuse it with strong daddy says we gotta eat our veggies rhetoric and comfort themselves with the fact the minorities are getting hit worse.

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Oracle
Oct 9, 2004

paternity suitor posted:

So did Wasserman lose it after the last election?

Name one person who didn't lose it after the last election.

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