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Yeah Nah?
This poll is closed.
Yeah Nah 122 53.51%
Nah Yeah 64 28.07%
Nah Yee 18 7.89%
No Yes 9 3.95%
Yes No 15 6.58%
Total: 228 votes
[Edit Poll (moderators only)]

 
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freebooter
Jul 7, 2009

CelestialScribe posted:

I feel like Melbourne peeps have COVID PTSD or something. You can't enforce Stage 4 lockdown for a few cases, especially when the contact tracing is meant to be up to scratch now.

Auckland did, and I don't think anyone would dispute it's been a better year for most New Zealanders than most Sydneysiders and Melburnians.

The general line of thinking in Melbourne, after what basically felt like eight months in lockdown, is that you'd rather do a short and sharp lockdown out of an abundance of caution than wring your hands and drag your feet for ages and ultimately have to do a longer one, even if that's not the most likely outcome. A week or two of lockdown is loving nothing.

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freebooter
Jul 7, 2009

Thank you New South Wales for the gracious Christmas present re-gifted from America

freebooter
Jul 7, 2009

Looking forward to more tantrums about it from Sydneysiders

freebooter
Jul 7, 2009

The Artificial Kid posted:

Well, if it cost everyone an average of 10c per day (which I think is a very conservative estimate), and went on for six weeks, that would be $22 million. How many cases will it prevent? That's very hard to estimate, but if we imagine that the current test-and-trace program is on track to eliminate the outbreak after another 100 cases, and the masks bring it down to 50 cases, then that's $500,000 per case.

But how much does masking actually cost? The first information available on google suggests that that a decent reusable mask will cost around $20 https://www.finder.com.au/reusable-face-mask-cost-analysis + shipping (which might be shared). I don't have any better information to hand (I've only used disposable masks because that's what I'm used to).

So that brings our cost over 6 weeks up to about 50c/day, or $2.5 million per case avoided in the above scenario.

Now the true number of cases avoided might be higher or lower, the actual cost of masks might be higher or lower, but there are very realistic scenarios where universal masking might be a poor use of money.

The bad thing about testing and tracing is that it's difficult, so you can't do it for millions of cases. But the nice thing about testing and tracing (if your outbreak is small enough to do it) is that it follows the course of the outbreak and applies only to people likely to be affected by the outbreak. Masks are a cheap, scattergun method of decreasing population susceptibility to the virus everywhere, and they're definitely a great idea in places where people are frequently being exposed to the virus, but there comes a point where making everyone where a mask *might* become inefficient.

It's not a cost borne by the state so who gives a gently caress

freebooter
Jul 7, 2009

The notion of running a literal cost-benefit analysis on masks, exceptionally cheap pieces of fabric that, yes, everybody in Sydney should have procured at some point through 2020, is bizarre. There are like six or seven valid arguments you could make against Sydney mandating masks before you get to back-of-the-envelope armchair policy wonk nonsense.

freebooter
Jul 7, 2009

I don't disagree with any of that! I just find that arriving there from the argument that the cost is the literal $10 financial cost of buying a mask, rather than the cost being that it's an imposition on people's daily lives, is... weird.

freebooter
Jul 7, 2009

It isn't the "masks aren't necessary yet" bit that's weird, it's that you're analysing it through a purely financial lens.

The sensible arguments against imposing masks are that they're an imposition on people's daily lives, mandating something means enforcing it and marginalised community members are the ones most likely to be fined, most transmission occurs in venues where people aren't going to be masked anyway (restaurants and private gatherings) and they provide a security blanket which can make some people lax about other stuff like social distancing. (I don't necessarily agree with those arguments, but those are the arguments.) The negative consequences on the other side of the ledger are, if the virus gets out of control, it's an even greater imposition on people's lives as we go into lockdown and can also lead to hundreds or thousands of deaths and long-term illnesses.

What isn't sensible is calculating the cost of masks as spread over the public as a whole in comparison with the ~*~Economic Impact~*~ of further cases and an outbreak growing, unless you're a policy wonk sitting in the Treasury basement with a calculator and a spreadsheet. I don't give a gently caress about the $20-$30 I spent on a bunch of reuseable masks earlier this year and I don't give a gently caress about Australia's GDP growth for the next quarter. I do give a gently caress about whether I can continue safely living my day-to-day life and visit family interstate again.

freebooter
Jul 7, 2009

You can make a case for masks one way or the other in a situation like Sydney's, but what's weird is umming and ahhing about it for two weeks before eventually pulling the trigger. Just loving do it. If the cases fizzled out by Boxing Day and everything turned out to be fine anyway, nobody is going to whinge that you overreacted.

freebooter
Jul 7, 2009

The Artificial Kid posted:

Let's say it's only $200,000-worth of mandatory masking to avoid a case in the NSW contact tracing environment (maybe it's lower, maybe it's higher, I'm just picking a figure well below the bottom of my previous napkin maths). Now let's say on average we have to avoid 100 cases to avoid a death. That's $20 million per death avoided.

The thing is, this isn't how we approach pandemic policy at all - or at least it hasn't been in Australia since March. It's one thing to say "we can spend X amount of dollars on anti-smoking ads and thereby save X lives." That is a completely normal and long-standing trade-off in typical public health discussions.

But a pandemic is not a typical public health problem and Australia's policy is not about mitigating cases or deaths with carefully tweaked and financially considered measures in which you put a dollar value on every life saved. It's about achieving and maintaining zero community transmission because ongoing community transmission constantly risks snowballing into a broader outbreak which forces us into economically and socially devastating lockdowns. I can guarantee you that no jurisdiction is hesitant to mandate masks on the grounds that they feel that money (individuals' money!) could be more wisely spent.

If there's a vexing financial angle in our pandemic policy, it's precisely where the trigger point should be to lock down hospitality and retail. Not a spreadsheet about how much masks cost.

freebooter
Jul 7, 2009

The Artificial Kid posted:

The entire premise of what I'm saying is that we can hopefully expect the contact tracing system to bring new cases back to zero as it did once before, with some fixed number of cases occurring along the way. I've acknowledged that that may not happen, and I said that if we think it won't happen we should just lock down now.

So either masks are not enough (lockdown is needed), or masks are a possible adjunct to contact tracing, and the question emerges of how much benefit we will get for the cost. If the case count this week goes 3-5-2-0-0-0 and stays at 0 until the vaccine rollout is complete, will you argue that we should all have been wearing masks that whole time? Should we have had mandatory masking throughout the last few months? There were always fresh cases coming in from overseas, quarantine could have been breaches at any moment, so at no point in those months could we have said that masks wouldn't be useful, and yet in retrospect we can say that most of the money and effort put into masking during that time was in fact wasted. Almost none of the masks worn in Sydney during that time would ever have been in line of sight of a COVID virus droplet.

Meanwhile the masking would have been in parallel with a system we were already paying for, contact tracing, quarantine and sewerage surveillance that was in fact protecting us very effectively.

See how it's possible to make this argument without putting it in financial terms? That's the only issue anyone has with what you've been saying.

freebooter
Jul 7, 2009

The timing of the national anthem thing is still so loving funny. NSW and Victorian state cabinets rushing into crisis meetings, borders closing, tens of thousands of flights and holiday bookings cancelled, waves of dread rolling across the nation again, citizens glued to their TV screens... and Scomo's sitting down in his garden shed with his typewriter, trying out verses, the missus bringing him a cup of tea, maybe he'll go for a walk in the afternoon to see if inspiration strikes, etc.

freebooter
Jul 7, 2009

woofbro posted:

Honestly, in NSW I'd say people think Gladys is going a good job given the circumstances and are instead aiming at Andrews and Palaszczuk as poor handlers of the pandemic because of their trigger happy response to stronger border controls.

I've learned this year that apparently Sydneysiders believe they have a god-given right to holiday on the Gold Coast, but after this year I'm fine with border closures even when the risk is minimal. Yes I miss my family, but when we were in lockdown I missed being inside other buildings, getting coffee, visiting friends etc much more. And a non-family-visiting interstate holiday is way, way down the priority list.

freebooter
Jul 7, 2009

Solemn Sloth posted:

It’s also completely disingenuous to compare a mask mandate with things like colonoscopy screening because the former is a cost which would not otherwise be available for an alternative public health intervention (apart from however many masks you decide to make freely available to people)

Also colon cancer isn't contagious and doesn't have an effect (economic or otherwise) on anybody beyond a small circle of people around the patient in question, whereas, you know, I don't need to write this out. Vastly more people have been affected by lockdowns and restrictions than by actual COVID. Any calculus which is only taking into account "lives saved" is therefore immediately, obviously, flawed.

freebooter
Jul 7, 2009

Is there an actual check-in app? I'm sick of writing out my name and phone number every time, but the Service Victoria app a) doesn't appear to let you make an account unless you already have one (neither does the website??) and b) has a QR reader that doesn't work.

freebooter
Jul 7, 2009

hambeet posted:

The Services Victoria app QR code works fine? I've used it a stack of times.

I've tried it at two different places and it's unresponsive

freebooter
Jul 7, 2009

hambeet posted:

I helped set it up the QR codes at my work and had a bunch of staff at different offices test it for me on a variety of different phones, all using the Service Vic app (so we could screenshot to make a guide for admin to help clients.)

I'd bin your windows smart phone, personally.

iPhone, checkmate

freebooter
Jul 7, 2009

https://www.theage.com.au/national/...104-p56rob.html

quote:

WA Premier Mark McGowan has given the clearest indication yet the state is opting for the elimination of COVID-19 rather than suppressing it.

Despite the July 2020 National Cabinet agreement to a suppression strategy with the goal of no community transmission and continued pressure from commentators over east over the state's hardline virus response, Mr McGowan said he supported "crushing the curve".
WA Premier Mark McGowan.

WA Premier Mark McGowan. Credit:Peter de Kruijff

“Back in March, April, May we flattened the curve then we crushed the curve and I want to keep the curve crushed,” he said.

“I don’t want the virus to come back; I’m a supporter of elimination.

“Get rid of the virus within our borders, within our country, and keep it that way.

“The best thing we can do is keep the virus out, allow our economy and our health to go well within our borders.”

This is such a pointless battle of semantics. There is absolutely no definitional difference between elimination and "zero community transmission."

freebooter
Jul 7, 2009

Seemlar posted:

Elimination and zero community transmission are the same thing, he's actually advocating eradication but without openly saying it, probably to avoid the pesky question of "so does that mean a hard closing of our international borders" since that's the only practical way to get there even with vaccination

No, eradication is when a disease is wiped out globally and will never return, like smallpox has been.

freebooter
Jul 7, 2009

crepeface posted:

it's rhetoric to distinguish wa's policy from nsw's hotspot lockdowns because he's under pressure to drop the border. honestly, the way Gladys 'we must live with covid-19' Berejiklian has been approaching zero community transmission, it's probably useful to use a term that's not watered down.

I mean, it's all rhetoric. Every state and the feds have agreed on "zero community transmission" as a goal and what McGowan is really arguing about is the extent to which he can make his own decisions to keep his own people safe until that's accomplished nationwide. He's as savvy a politician as anyone and he's cracked the word "elimination" out very deliberately, he knows how to play to the audience to position himself against the east coast. That's not necessarily a criticism; I'm a sandgroper originally and have plenty of vulnerable family members in WA. I'd vote for him in a heartbeat.

The Artificial Kid posted:

It's fair to talk about elimination from a particular time and place. I mean smallpox isn't actually eradicated. On a long enough timeline it will get out of a lab somewhere. The thing everyone wants to know is when they can stop viewing all other human beings and the world outside their front door with suspicion and sadness.

Edit - wait after re-reading I think you're saying that WA is doing elimination but that elimination is different from eradication, in which case forget I said anything.

Yeah, they're different terms with different technical meanings, but like most people I wouldn't have known that before 2020. Where McGowan is wrong is saying that the rest of Australia isn't also aiming for elimination, because it is, it's just that Morrison and Berejiklian and Andrews are allergic to the word itself.

I suspect the reason the federal government (and I'm sure it was the federal government) pushed for the national cabinet to agree on "zero community transmission" rather than "elimination" was a) to distinguish themselves from the people's poet Jacinda Ardern, since they didn't adopt this strategy until it turned out after the border closures in March that it was in fact eminently achievable, and b) to avoid people becoming lax after "zero community transmission" is achieved, because elimination is only a temporary state which can forever be breached, which is quite understandable; Hazzard was not wrong to talk about an "avalanche of complacency" in December. A is political, B is practical, and both of them are fine - state bickering and all, I'm enormously relieved to be living in one of the few Western countries where we take this thing seriously.

freebooter
Jul 7, 2009

It really loving sucks that the outbreak had to happen right before Christmas just as people are moving around the country a bunch, leaving us primed for both viral spread and stranded holidaymakers. Like, gently caress you COVID, you couldn't just do this in mid-January?

freebooter
Jul 7, 2009

The Lord Bude posted:

I particularly like the bit where the only valid forms of ID for proving you're old enough to buy smokes are 1. A passport or 2. A drivers licence or proof of age card issued by an Australian state or territory. So if you have an overseas drivers licence and you try and buy smokes you're poo poo out of luck unless you've got your passport on you, at least in QLD.

This has happened to me the other way round trying to buy booze in the US, and it's so loving dumb given that in both instances you can legally drive using that license - so why shouldn't you be allowed to use it as proof of ID?

freebooter
Jul 7, 2009

Compare and contrast:

https://twitter.com/AlboMP/status/1346929529198055424

https://twitter.com/ScottMorrisonMP/status/1346949911237914625

freebooter
Jul 7, 2009

Solemn Sloth posted:

Because it's not reasonable to expect a random bottle-o worker to be able to confidently verify a drivers licence from a different country under threat of a $20,000 fine if they get it wrong?

Hmmm yeah fair enough. I was sulky about it because I had to trudge back from the brewery to the hotel for a kilometre in the rain to fetch my passport.

freebooter
Jul 7, 2009

hooman posted:

Thanks for this, it was the phrasing that shat me, you can describe Australia's approach to rollout as cautious without describing other countries as cutting corners.

This is the bit of the thread that sums it up best:

https://twitter.com/peripatetical/status/1346036320750202881

freebooter
Jul 7, 2009

I mean as far as lockdowns go doing a three-day just-in-case lockdown to prevent the situation from getting out of hand and having to do a long one is, definitionally, the opposite of a "massive" lockdown

freebooter
Jul 7, 2009

dr_rat posted:

Hopefully with tightened restrictions quarantining/flight staff well get less and less of this sort of hotel breach stuff.

Worry is when the vaccinating starts people might start getting laxer with this sort of stuff. People are talking about a 2-3 year time frame before we start seeing a more general successful ridding of it. That's a while to avoid gently caress ups over.

I've seen at least one epidemiologist say Australia's first in line for vaccines should be air crew, hotel quarantine workers and hotel quarantine security guards.

freebooter
Jul 7, 2009

NoNotTheMindProbe posted:

That will only help if the vaccines provide sterilizing immunity which isn't known at this time.

Yep and that's definitely a concern, though I'd say that even if it merely prevents illness/symptoms that would be useful - being symptomatic makes you more likely to spread it.

freebooter
Jul 7, 2009

froglet posted:

I have to wonder why are people like this. If ever there was a time to kick back at home, play video games til your eyes turn square, and eat frozen pizza for 3 days, this would be it.

I also always found it puzzling when people did this after March/April, now that we know that no matter what you're always going to be allowed to go to the shops, but it only takes a little bit of "panic" buying to upset the supply chain and I don't think it's "panicky" at all to say, hmm, maybe I want to go to the shops as infrequently as possible if there's a virulent new strain of COVID circulating.

The Lord Bude posted:

To be clear, although I reserve the right to have a nice cleansing sook about it, I endorse the mask wearing requirement 100%.

Also - something many people may not realise is that in Brisbane currently it is mandatory to wear the mask at all times when outside your home, other than when in the process of eating/drinking - that includes when you're driving alone in your car. My dad rang up and asked about it specifically.

Yes, this was also the case in the four-month Victorian lockdown, unless you were jogging or cycling. Though at least for us it was winter. Even as it was warming up in September/October I was finding mask wearing starting to become uncomfortable.

freebooter
Jul 7, 2009

Missed this before - I'd only seen epidemiologists advise it, but the government confirmed a couple of days ago that border/quarantine workers will be in the first round of vaccinations, which seems like a very good idea to me:

https://www.pm.gov.au/media/press-conference-australian-parliament-house-12

freebooter
Jul 7, 2009

Can't find the quote online but heard it on the radio - he want as far as to say something like "all protest is unacceptable."

This is it. This is the best the National Party has to offer.

freebooter
Jul 7, 2009

nocturama posted:

I heard that too. What the gently caress?

Wedged in there somewhere was an equivocation of "whether it's BLM or the Capitol protests," and I think he meant to say violent protest, but even that of itself - that level of poo poo communication - is a marker of how unfit he is for the top job in any capacity.

It's sort of amazing that because of this century-old political coalition, every Liberal PM is obliged to have some poo poo-for-brains weirdo country bumpkin as his deputy. (Or it would be amazing if it weren't for the fact that we've had at least one poo poo-for-brains weirdo city slicker as PM in recent years.)

freebooter
Jul 7, 2009

Zenithe posted:

When people finally are forced to know who you are by chance because you are leader of the vestigial party, you have to get all those Hot Takes out while people remember you exist. Man's on a schedule.

Not sure you can describe them as vestigial when the Liberals very rarely manage to get a majority in their own right

freebooter
Jul 7, 2009

Wizard Master posted:

I often wonder what happened to the Chaser boys but then I realised there’s no longer a market for them - these days their irreverent brand of satire would be indistinguishable from real news.

"Fibre-to-the-node vaccine," that's the stuff, that cutting-edge, timely, finger-on-the-pulse satire that made them so indispensable in the past

freebooter
Jul 7, 2009

Alize Cornet seems like a nice girl who accidentally stirred a hornets' nest, so this is more about Melburnians, but it remains really weird to me that eight months of lockdown - while it did suck - is more easily characterised as "suffering" than, say, what happened in France, where 70,000 people are loving dead

https://twitter.com/alizecornet/status/1350827468215648263

freebooter
Jul 7, 2009

Sulla Faex posted:

should australia become a republic? discuss

Yes. Sign it into law around, say, January 10th, so that we can change the date while keeping Australia's national day in the hottest part of summer and also setting up a Christmas-NY-national day string of public holidays.

We so easily could have changed the date already if those dipshit founding fathers hadn't decided to bring federation into being on a day that's already a holiday.

freebooter
Jul 7, 2009

JBP posted:

You don't need to be in the Commonwealth to play the games.

You also don't need to have the Queen as your head of state to be in the Commonwealth (most Commonwealth countries don't).

freebooter
Jul 7, 2009

If you'd like another reason to despise Court: while her homophobia is more well-known, equally damaging is her long-standing patronage of Drug Free Australia, a somebody-think-of-the-children "secular" lobby group (that just happens to have a board stacked with current or former pastors) which is probably the country's foremost anti-drugs lobby group and regularly gets invited by various state parliaments to have its views heard on issues like pill testing, injecting rooms, etc.

https://drugfree.org.au/construction/index.php/about-dfa/our-patron

freebooter
Jul 7, 2009

BrigadierSensible posted:

For those of you not wanting to celebrate Invasion Day today, instead try celebrating Indian Republic Day!

A country that became a Republic, AND gets to play in the Commonwealth games. Thus negating the only decent argument for remaining beholden to Good Queen Lizzie.

A majority of countries in the Commonwealth are republics. I think there's only like 15 or 16 of us left who are still Commonwealth "realms."

Wasn't there something a while ago where they wanted to change the law so that the throne could go to an eldest daughter but every realm had to agree and in Australia that meant all the attorney generals had to agree and SA or somebody was holding up the process? That was pretty funny

freebooter
Jul 7, 2009

Haha of course it was him. The proto-Tony

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freebooter
Jul 7, 2009

EoinCannon posted:

All my extended family live in Ireland and I spent a few months there a few years ago with thoughts of moving there or England but the weather is pretty rough if you've grown up in Australia. I'll maybe look into it again in 10 years or so.

England is a deeply classist failed state run by neoliberal reactionaries and is a far more institutionally mean-spirited place than Australia. Pretty much every lovely policy the coalition tries to implement here is already well underway in the UK.

Ireland I think is cool. In fact it would appear to outrank us on the HDI index now! You have to pay to see a GP though.

Eediot Jedi posted:

The thing wasn't a documentary.


Speaking of that gremlin, scraped from the arse.

Abbott seeks return to values
Tony Abbott will lead a new movement to defend and revive traditional Australian values, as a report warns of a collapse of living standards.

Fantastic stuff from the SBS journo in this piece:

https://www.sbs.com.au/news/tony-abbott-bemoans-virus-hysteria-and-health-despotism-as-he-questions-impact-of-covid-19-rules

quote:

"Thanks to the pandemic, we're now told to form orderly and socially distanced queues - as if we were English."

The former prime minister was born in London and has been working for the British government as a trade adviser.

quote:

He also hit out at "absurd" rules like compulsory face masks while driving in a car alone which featured in Brisbane's three-day mini-lockdown.

NSW Police cleared Mr Abbott of breaking coronavirus during Sydney's northern beaches lockdown after he was seen cycling in a zone he did not live in.

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