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on such a heater this month i'm literally tailing COD twitch streamer touts and hitting 2 rebounds away on the second one :/ 
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Jan 14, 2021 20:25
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Why would people even go to Biff T's it'd be like going to Trump's casino if he had his face plastered on it then again he did say he owned the police, they never established if he was the only game in town
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Jan 14, 2021 20:31
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Alan Smithee posted:Why would people even go to Biff T's I bet he runs a hell of a poker game and put some pool tables in there and I would never leave.
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Jan 14, 2021 21:15
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Leperflesh posted:I really appreciate a post like this, because it highlights the basic truth about DFS: if you're not playing it this way, you're hopelessly outmatched all the time and shouldn't play at all. The only players who even have a prayer of being +EV over a long term playing DFS, are players who have databases and processes and making large numbers of bets over and over again. Everyone else is basically buying sports-themed lotto tickets. Yeah I only do DFS if I get a free entry from a promo from the sportsbook.
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Jan 14, 2021 22:23
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when i was reading up on DFS and read articles about quants using their smarts to win at DFS. the biggest alarm bell to me is that you can enter as many tournaments as you want. so unlike online poker, where some people _might_ be able to play 20 tables, they're probably not playing anything beyond ABC poker with occasional pauses for harder decisions. With DFS you just pick the players and submit to as many tournaments as you can. i don't know if its changed since then, but if that's true that anyone can buy into as many tournaments as possible.... don't most people just give up eventually?
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Jan 14, 2021 22:36
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Edward Mass posted:DFS is different from regular gambling, because you're not trying to beat the house - you're trying to beat your fellow gamblers. Therein lies the issue; in public leagues, your chances of winning are insignificant due to the presence of sharks who have mastered the game. Yeah, it's like poker in that sense. I figure that it can be easier to beat the crowd than to beat the house sometimes. In low-stakes games at least 25% of the players are putting zero thought into it. You're right but I think overstating it. It can be super random -- your chances of winning are reasonable. Your chances of being +EV? Hell, I don't even know if I'm really +EV or just lucky. I think it's so volatile that even 5 years of NFL doesn't provide much confidence on my true EV. There's also cash games (e.g., 1-on-1s) which are much more predictable but I have no idea what the metagame is like there or if its beatable with the rake. Leperflesh posted:I really appreciate a post like this, because it highlights the basic truth about DFS: if you're not playing it this way, you're hopelessly outmatched all the time and shouldn't play at all. The only players who even have a prayer of being +EV over a long term playing DFS, are players who have databases and processes and making large numbers of bets over and over again. Everyone else is basically buying sports-themed lotto tickets. This is right too. The problem (for me) now is that there are tons of websites that do all this stuff for you. It used to me I was one of only a few guys doing this stuff, but now there are only 1 or 2 unique elements in my process that you can't get for $30/month from some optimizer website. The people smart about using these tools (but not necessarily with any technical skills to do it on their own) are the ones who beat me every week. The biggest sharks, they obviously put a ton of time and effort into it but most of them just get projections, mostly third-party, in Excel and then spend all week making lineups by hand. I've done some freelance scripting for a few of them, mainly scraping and joining -- their process is nothing like mine, and more effective. Strong Sauce posted:i don't know if its changed since then, but if that's true that anyone can buy into as many tournaments as possible.... don't most people just give up eventually? They have put a lot of restrictions in place, yes. When I started I could enter 150 in any tournament so I mostly played the 25-cent and $1 tournaments and maxed out. Now most of the tournaments are single-entry or 3-entry max. Under $5, it's never more than 20-max even in huge huge tournaments. There aren't enough sharks out there to significantly effect your odds in a single-entry contest with 50K entries or a 20-entry max with 300K entries. And you don't need to be a wiz to make 20 lineups. The thing is, it's extremely volatile, which doesn't help your EV but I think it does reduce the impact of sharks. The sharks are winning an extremely small portion of their contests. Even the most high-profile contest of the week, it's won by a known player 2-3 times a year and the rest of the time by randoms who you will never hear from again. That's a very different dynamic than poker tournaments. For sure it's a hard game to win, but that's more down to volatility and rake than sharks. Unless you want to play nosebleed stakes, then yes it's all sharks. SurgicalOntologist fucked around with this message at 23:13 on Jan 14, 2021 |
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Jan 14, 2021 23:10
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Do bookies in the US have to take your bets, up to a certain size? Everything I've heard from the serious winners here (Ireland/UK) is that if you look like a long term winner you're going to get your account flagged pretty quickly, and either a ban or be limited to betting pennies. Any of the guys who've earned significantly have been banned from every bookmaker, whether it's online, in the shop, or via phone, and have to hire people to get bets on for them. (This is from reading and watching the guys who talk a big game, I'm not big into betting myself, just the odd euro on something.) I think Australia has rules that to open a book you have to take anything coming at you up to a certain amount (but they're all managed by the state rather than the "gentleman's agreements" we have here.)
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Jan 14, 2021 23:46
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we can ban or limit as arbitrarily as we feel like.
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Jan 15, 2021 02:23
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It's a risk with sports betting and one of the things that Pinnacle promotes as to why you should use them.
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Jan 15, 2021 02:27
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Scotsman posted:One of the most important things (if it's available to you depending on your region) is betting at the best odds as well. How do you know that you are getting the best odds overall? I know that the amount of bets coming in can affect the odds one way or the other, but how do you insure that the bet you make at +125 doesn't spike to +150 or the bet you made at -110 that you feel good about when it goes to -130 all of a sudden goes to +115 or something? Also, what does the "u" mean, when you talk about a -4u loss or +2u profit? And for a total throwback to the PITR of old, I was crushed when the forum was closed because you had mentioned possibly writing a stud book, and I was way getting into stud and HORSE. Not directed to Scotsman, but the community in general. My buddies that I play online poker with (stars home game is great for us and we settle via venmo), are big into sports betting but I have no idea. They were talking about "middling" bets which I know the definition of the word, but not how it applies to sports betting, and didn't want to ask because the texts were flying.
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Jan 16, 2021 06:21
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Mr. Toodles posted:How do you know that you are getting the best odds overall? I know that the amount of bets coming in can affect the odds one way or the other, but how do you insure that the bet you make at +125 doesn't spike to +150 or the bet you made at -110 that you feel good about when it goes to -130 all of a sudden goes to +115 or something? And if you bet and the line gets better (and you feel good about your bet), bet the bigger number too! wheeee! quote:Also, what does the "u" mean, when you talk about a -4u loss or +2u profit? units -- Usually a percentage of bankroll quote:They were talking about "middling" bets which I know the definition of the word, but not how it applies to sports betting, and didn't want to ask because the texts were flying. If you can predict which way the line will go, you can lock in (at worst) a tiny loss and have the potential for a massive payday. For example, Green Bay is a 7 point favorite over the Rams tomorrow. You think they should only be a 3 point favorite, so you take the Rams +7. Aaron Rodgers wakes up and tweets "I'm going to miss the game so I can go host Jeopardy" and the line drops to -2. So you bet GB -2. Now you have BOTH Rams +7 and Packers -2. If the Packers win by 3,4,5, or 6, both your bets hit. 2 or 7, you win one and push one (which is still big profit) and any other number you win one and lose one so you're only out the juice. Obviously nobody can reliably predict line movement every time but that's the concept
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Jan 16, 2021 07:08
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yeah Spokes basically covered it all. - By best odds I mean best odds at that time. Many things can of course change the odds or point spreads. Last week Washington were +8 then Smith was announced as out and they ended up going to +10 for example. Late injuries, covid pullouts, surprise moves, big money etc can all move lines. I personally generally don't sweat it. The line movements are usually minimal unless it's something major and I never try to predict line movements. I figure it's 50/50 whether that +110 bet you made will move to -110 or +130 a few hours later depending on all the variables. - Units are how most people talk about what they are betting instead of using dollar amounts. It's generally good for the mentality to talk about it in that regard as opposed to in actually currency. It also helps you become less attached to it. The units also fluctuate depending on your bankroll which makes sense. There's numerous different methods of bankroll management. A 100u bankroll is the most common. If you have $100, $1 = 1u. If you win a bet and your bankroll is $102, now 1u is $1.20 and vice versa. You can then use that to determine bets and bet amounts and confidence levels. Often there are bets that you'll just be that much more confident in. So you could have a 1-3u betting system where 1 is the least confident and 3 is the most. If you're very confident about the Bills covering today for example, you'd bet 3u. However this level of bankroll management with a max bet also stops you from betting too much and losing half your bankroll or whatever because Lamar runs wild. Proper bankroll management is incredibly important in any form of gambling. My own personal recommendation is to have a separate bankroll just for casual bets. Those bets you make where you're watching a game and just want to bet something random on it to spice it up, or bet a high variance play like the grand salami for fun etc.
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Jan 16, 2021 11:57
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should we have a separate thread for our dumb wagers or keep it here?
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Jan 16, 2021 17:28
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Nystral posted:should we have a separate thread for our dumb wagers or keep it here? The old thread in TFF had people post their wagers in it, so you might as well post your futures bet for the Timberwolves here.
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Jan 16, 2021 20:53
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I have a question about unit size regarding bets. The way my brother bets, and thus the way I have, is that if he's betting the dog, he bets the unit size (so like +200 @ 2u means he's +4u if he wins, -2u if he loses). If he's betting the favorite, he bets whatever amount is required to win the unit size (so -200 @2u means he's +2u if he wins, -4u if he loses). When I asked him why he bets this way, he didn't have a good reason, just said that's how the professional bettors he spends time around also bet. Is there like an actual justification for this strategy?
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Jan 16, 2021 21:21
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Jordan7hm posted:I have a question about unit size regarding bets. The way my brother bets, and thus the way I have, is that if he's betting the dog, he bets the unit size (so like +200 @ 2u means he's +4u if he wins, -2u if he loses). If he's betting the favorite, he bets whatever amount is required to win the unit size (so -200 @2u means he's +2u if he wins, -4u if he loses). When I asked him why he bets this way, he didn't have a good reason, just said that's how the professional bettors he spends time around also bet. Is there like an actual justification for this strategy?
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Jan 16, 2021 21:32
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SurgicalOntologist posted:Yeah, it's like poker in that sense. I figure that it can be easier to beat the crowd than to beat the house sometimes. In low-stakes games at least 25% of the players are putting zero thought into it. You're right but I think overstating it. It can be super random -- your chances of winning are reasonable. Your chances of being +EV? Hell, I don't even know if I'm really +EV or just lucky. I think it's so volatile that even 5 years of NFL doesn't provide much confidence on my true EV. My experience is somewhat different because I basically only play lower limit cash games (top ~40% win double the entry fee for the unaware) but even there, in what are supposedly single entry events, a lot of people end up with copycat lineups. I assume most people are copying lineups off Twitter or copy and pasting from whatever optimizer they're subscribed to. The SituAsian fucked around with this message at 06:57 on Jan 17, 2021 |
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Jan 17, 2021 06:55
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The SituAsian posted:My experience is somewhat different because I basically only play lower limit cash games (top ~40% win double the entry fee for the unaware) but even there, in what are supposedly single entry events, a lot of people end up with copycat lineups. I assume most people are copying lineups off Twitter or copy and pasting from whatever optimizer they're subscribed to. Yeah, I'm not an expert on cash games but those "trains" are pretty rare in GPPs. In double-ups it might actually make sense to match the field, in GPPs definitely not. Similarly in mulit-entry GPPs it doesn't make sense to duplicate your lineups (and few people do) but in a double-up it can make sense. Anyways, I don't play cash games but my understanding is that 1-on-1s are better for cash games. Sharks can't play the lower limits due to restrictions and you can set an option that each opponent can only join one game againt you (on DK at least) so you get a wide range of opponents. In 1-on-1s a 40th percentile lineup will get you a -10% ROI rather than -100% that you'd get in a double-up. It's a major reduction in variance.
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Jan 17, 2021 12:47
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Can we have the good thread back in TFF and you can keep this training wheels one?
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Jan 17, 2021 16:10
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SurgicalOntologist posted:Yeah, I'm not an expert on cash games but those "trains" are pretty rare in GPPs. In double-ups it might actually make sense to match the field, in GPPs definitely not. Similarly in mulit-entry GPPs it doesn't make sense to duplicate your lineups (and few people do) but in a double-up it can make sense. Yeah but I never play more than $5 a slate so the biggest single entry available is usually good enough for me mainly because I'm too lazy to enter more than one contest at a time. There's enough people who just don't pay attention or understand the difference between GPP and cash construction that I (think) I am only slightly -EV or breakeven in most
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Jan 17, 2021 17:39
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10k on browns ml @+400 5k on o57
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Jan 17, 2021 18:00
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SilvergunSuperman posted:Can we have the good thread back in TFF and you can keep this training wheels one? As the OP of both threads, I thought about this, but then jase1 posted what football game he had bet on, showing there is no need to re-open the old thread.
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Jan 17, 2021 18:04
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jase1 posted:10k on browns ml @+400 weird anomaly today and yesterday where i see more action on this dog than the favorite, esp parlayed.
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Jan 17, 2021 20:12
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JOHN CENA posted:weird anomaly today and yesterday where i see more action on this dog than the favorite, esp parlayed. ten points is insane for a team as good as the browns, especially for KC who haven't really put a lot of separation between themselves and other decent teams all season. it definitely feels like a can't-lose bet! tyreek will be 5-180-2 at the end of 1Q and the chiefs will win by 28 and people will say "why was it only 10!?". also, fade bye week andy reid at your own peril
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Jan 17, 2021 20:22
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Andy Reid has never lost to the Browns.
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Jan 17, 2021 20:25
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SilvergunSuperman posted:Can we have the good thread back in TFF and you can keep this training wheels one? Yeah at the breakneck speed these threads move no way can you accommodate pros and people who want to learn things.
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Jan 17, 2021 22:30
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As a casual gambler, why can’t you just bet with the majority of sharps and have success?
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Jan 17, 2021 22:54
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im sorry jase
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Jan 17, 2021 22:59
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Hell of a season. I’m down like 85k in NFL betting this year.
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Jan 18, 2021 00:06
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Hey I just put like £4 on the saints outright when they were 21/10 because lol UK in play gambling but now they've scored do I hedge on a bucs 9/5 outright now or let it ride E: wow read the room doc sorry jase E2: went up to 9/2 so I hedged it out, then saw I was betting on first half outcome lol don't score a fuckin field goal bucs E3: lmao don't gamble kids Doccykins fucked around with this message at 02:15 on Jan 18, 2021 |
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Jan 18, 2021 01:47
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jase1 posted:Hell of a season. I’m down like 85k in NFL betting this year. Only bet on sports where the ball is round
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Jan 18, 2021 01:50
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For those of you who bet parlays, are you actively making arbitrage bets when you’re in the money?
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Jan 18, 2021 03:23
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Flowers for QAnon posted:For those of you who bet parlays, are you actively making arbitrage bets when you’re in the money? I definitely do, and now that we're getting closer to the SB, I'll be making bets to hedge my futures too. Luckily I want to bet GB next week anyway, but I get like $300 if Tampa makes the SB.
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Jan 18, 2021 13:24
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Bill Door posted:Yeah at the breakneck speed these threads move no way can you accommodate pros and people who want to learn things. Well people stopped posting their picks so yeah, apparently it can't accommodate both. Also feel free to stuff your sarcasm, if you're not 15 it might be time to ease up on that.
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Jan 21, 2021 20:27
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It is OK to post picks in this thread. In fact, I encourage it.
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Jan 21, 2021 20:33
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Yeah, as someone that is a total novice at this stuff, I would appreciate seeing people's picks, even if it is after the fact. Beyond money line bets I have no idea what I am doing, especially with regard to parlays, point spreads, etc.
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Jan 21, 2021 21:05
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FanDuel sportsbook is live in Virginia starting today. They're offering a super odds boost on either Giannis or Lebron scoring one or more points tonight. You can bet that (up to $50) at a +100 moneyline. (Normally it would be -100000.) So that's some free money if you're in VA.
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Jan 21, 2021 21:26
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i just tail people smarter/sharper than me. had $15k on ufc yesterday and squeaked out a 2k profit (had ~$1400 on alves at +200-+210 to save my day) still figuring out the other sports so I just have $200 on senators +114 (fanduel) tonight because it seemed like a good price
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Jan 21, 2021 23:33
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bbc what it dew posted:still figuring out the other sports so I just have $200 on senators +114 (fanduel) tonight because it seemed like a good price Not a bad choice, IMHO.
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Jan 22, 2021 00:39
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I’m just loving around while I figure out hockey in the age of corona / early season. So bets to win 10$ on jets @-119 and avs @-238.
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Jan 22, 2021 00:55
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