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I’m a dummy Poirier at +267 to win vs McGregor Lakers to win and over 229.5 at +300 Don’t follow my lead. I tend to bet the underdogs in MMA because in my head the books haven’t found a way to properly price the line and McG fans will push the line, so it may be higher closer to the fight. I imagine smart money is staying away from this matchup though. Lakers was just a meh gamble on a teaser the site was running. I hit about 1/3rd or so of the time so I end up even in the long run and it’s just pocket change anyway.
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Jan 22, 2021 02:01
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I like GB -3.5 and I recommend getting in on the last Fan Duel single game parlay insurance of the year with GB+22.5/Over 24.5/Pick your favorite player to score first TD of the game.
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Jan 22, 2021 04:27
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I have 5k on Poirer @+250
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Jan 22, 2021 18:55
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paternity suitor posted:I like GB -3.5 and I recommend getting in on the last Fan Duel single game parlay insurance of the year with GB+22.5/Over 24.5/Pick your favorite player to score first TD of the game. Is FanDuel the only sportsbook that lets you stack bets like this? I can't imagine it's profitable
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Jan 22, 2021 20:41
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DariusLikewise posted:Is FanDuel the only sportsbook that lets you stack bets like this? I can't imagine it's profitable I don't know if they're the only one, but they hype it a lot. They're probably able to take a lot of money from people who would otherwise be slight winners on a bunch of props by getting them to make them into a single game parlay that's basically a lotto ticket. You see their tweets about how someone turned like a $50 parlay into $20k or whatever and along with the money back if you only miss one leg bit and you start throwing these everywhere, hitting none.) I didn't want to bet McGregor because I want him to lose, but FanDuel has it as a superboost where McGregor getting a KO/TKO in rounds 1 or 2 is paying at +140 (instead of -125) so I put a couple dollars on it.
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Jan 22, 2021 21:38
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blackhawks -135 to win $200 tonight
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Jan 22, 2021 22:09
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I suggest taking the Knicks +4 this evening.
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Jan 22, 2021 22:24
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$20 on Poirier+275 cuz thats silly im also gonna probably throw $10 on hooker by decision+320 G-Hawk fucked around with this message at 19:05 on Jan 23, 2021 |
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Jan 23, 2021 17:50
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G-Hawk posted:$20 on Poirier+275 cuz thats silly DraftKings gave me an oddsboost to bring McGregor for a 2:1 payout. $25 max, but I think that’s pretty safe doubling up.
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Jan 23, 2021 17:58
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$500 pena +110 $500 lentz +500 $1200 poirier +265/+275 $1500 albazi -102 $2000 junior +110 ~$4000 rountree -330
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Jan 23, 2021 22:06
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bbc what it dew posted:$500 pena +110 What you're doing, but at 1/100th the stakes with slightly worst odds. (Except those only available at much worst odds)
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Jan 24, 2021 00:26
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DariusLikewise posted:Is FanDuel the only sportsbook that lets you stack bets like this? I can't imagine it's profitable Other ones do it, but they have restrictions on the odds so I'd expect to lose the insurance too often to be worth it. Bet MGM requires something like -400 per leg which sucks. FanDuel lets you pick whatever you want as long as the total odds are +200 or longer, and they have alt lines that get up to -20000, so just go with the longest odds available and then just find your favorite roll of the dice. I hope they bring it back because it's free money
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Jan 24, 2021 01:59
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bbc what it dew posted:~$4000 rountree -330 oof 
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Jan 24, 2021 03:04
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Congrats to all the Poirier bettors, you are braver goons than I.
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Jan 24, 2021 06:45
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jcarver did well https://twitter.com/JasonSomerville/status/1353217819492585473
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Jan 24, 2021 07:10
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jase1 posted:I have 5k on Poirer @+250 grats!
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Jan 24, 2021 07:15
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Jumps racing in Thurles in Ireland. All bets are for a euro or less just to have an interest. 1:30 - Yukon Lil - 13/2 2:00 - Annamix - 11/2 2:30 - Ministerforsport - 11/1 EW - 4 Places Paid 3:00 - Heather Rocco - 7/1 4:00 - Flindt - 14/1 - EW - 3 Places Paid All racing is Best Odds Guaranteed, so if the starting price is higher I get that. I'll let you know how I did, but be aware I'm a loser overall in racing and just bet because I like horses and to cheer something in a race. If you can get a stream of Irish horse racing it's great to watch. It's generally more competitive than the the English races, and more "of-the-people." Edit: FFS. Racing cancelled due to snow. Mrenda fucked around with this message at 11:51 on Jan 24, 2021 |
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Jan 24, 2021 09:39
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Fozzy The Bear posted:jcarver did well I’m jealous!
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Jan 24, 2021 16:28
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on tb/gb o51.5 to win 1k, tb +3, +3.5 and +4 to win 1.8k also buf ml +150 to win 2k and buf +3 to win 500
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Jan 24, 2021 22:32
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paid out over $500k on the chiefs game hoo boy
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Jan 25, 2021 05:34
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JOHN CENA posted:paid out over $500k on the chiefs game hoo boy curious, what was your moneyline and spread at?
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Jan 25, 2021 08:16
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Strong Sauce posted:curious, what was your moneyline and spread at? buccs +150 ml, +3 spread. total was at 55.5
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Jan 25, 2021 09:11
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Jumps racing in Plumpton in the UK. There's no Irish races today. 1:50 - Entre Deux - 250/1 EW - 3 Places Paid I've got a feeling about this one. It did well in Point to Points, and has only been run in flat races apart from one occassion. In that hurdle the vet said it was slightly lame which could explain its bad run, but to me it could be that it's a horse that needs to be right, and going over fences. It's a real long shot, especially with it drifting in the market early (typically a sign the owners/stable/people with inside info aren't betting it) but like I said, I've a feeling it'll perform better than anyone's giving it credit for, with only a few short priced horses in the race. I think it's odds should be way shorter, which is a good reason to take it on. 3:20 - Bailarico - 8/1 EW - 3 Places Paid Edit at Noon GMT: Added: 2:20 - Sameer - 7/1 Mrenda fucked around with this message at 13:04 on Jan 25, 2021 |
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Jan 25, 2021 10:15
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I bet big on Cheifs/Packers and used an odds boost on McGregor and that was a rough 48 hours.
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Jan 25, 2021 18:30
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NYR ML even to win 500 CGY ML even to win 500 FLA ML +110 to win 500 WAS/HOU o231.5 -115 to win 500
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Jan 26, 2021 23:24
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Just a thought but I think if people are going to be posting bets or picks or what they are on in this thread, it would be good to provide some sort of reasoning (jase1 the exception). As someone who does this for a living - I think it would be much more beneficial both to the person making the bets, and also the people reading the bets. With reasoning for bets people are placing, it also takes a large part of the "gambling" aspect out of it which is a good thing. That way someone isn't randomly risking their money based on a couple of words written by a random poster. They're placing a bet because Jackets currently have a really low xGF and Panthers have a good xGF and 2nd best xGA rate in the league (or whatever the reasoning is) and so they actually understand why this bet is being made - which will help educate them in the world of betting sports. It can also help if someone has been wrong in their thinking or there is a late change. I've did that in the past where I have backed a pick and written it up based on the goalie expected to start then a different goalie is announced as starting. At least that way people were able to read and realize it was goalie dependent etc. Nothing against you personally bbc what it dew - it just came to mind when I saw your post there. Similar to the way we would all discuss poker strategy over the years. Someone doesn't just raise 67s on the button and posts the hand history and that's it - they would explain their reasoning for it etc or would be questioned about it and then you have the community discussing whether it was right/wrong in that situation and everyone learns a lot from it. Scotsman fucked around with this message at 12:56 on Jan 27, 2021 |
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Jan 27, 2021 12:51
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Super Bowl coin toss: Tails -103 Because Tails never fails.
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Jan 27, 2021 13:01
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As someone who is just dipping their toes in sports betting for the first time, I'd greatly appreciate it. This just went legal in my state (Michigan) and my friends and I have jumped all over Draft Kings and all the free money they're throwing at us to use it. I've already pulled out my seed money ($200) and with the promos and bets I'm up ~$500. Feels good, but to some extent shooting in the dark. Mostly doing small $5 bets here and there as my cost of learning, but it's nice that it's the houses money to do so. I have no intention of doing this for a living, it's great fun and has really brought my friends together and made watching sports fun again since the start of COVID.
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Jan 27, 2021 14:26
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For content: Here's my open Parlay going into today. I think it's very unlikely to get past Chelsea losing but they just had their manager sacked. I'm not clear on whether it was a popular decision with the players or not, so they may sandbag. It's $5... so not getting hung up on it. But if they go down on goals early and the value goes over $100 I will likely cash out on a 20:1 take.
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Jan 27, 2021 14:28
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TraderStav posted:For content: I'm not a big fan of the Wolves bet ha. Even if Lampard was still in charge Chelsea are fairly solid at home. Wolves are struggling a fair bit right now. Throw in New Manager Syndrome and that was a game I decided not to touch. Don't mind Burnley. They are solid at home. Villa has a higher xGA in their last few games and not letting those chances happen is why they are doing fairly well. I'm concerned about Burnley's ability to score regardless though. I'm on <em>Burnley or Draw</em> in that one myself.
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Jan 27, 2021 14:49
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Elysium posted:Super Bowl coin toss: Tails is on a 2 game streak. Only at Super Bowl 3 and 4 did it go on a 2 game streak and then not win the next one. I believe there have been 5 different 3+ Super Bowl streaks for Tails. It's a streaky side of the coin and I like it.
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Jan 27, 2021 14:53
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Scotsman posted:I'm not a big fan of the Wolves bet ha. Even if Lampard was still in charge Chelsea are fairly solid at home. Wolves are struggling a fair bit right now. Throw in New Manager Syndrome and that was a game I decided not to touch. Thanks, I'm in the same place but it was a pretty wild $5 Parlay to start. The Chelsea match is definitely what gave it the odds boost to get that payout. I'm viewing this as a longshot big win. I see it as a toss-up in the Burnley game as well. I was thinking of cashing it out and taking the early win, but it's only $13 gain, so $8 over my stake. I definitely appreciate the analysis as I'm still getting back into the information flow about EPL. As mentioned above, as soon as COVID hit I don't know what happened to me but I COMPLETELY lost interest in all sports and stopped paying attention so don't have a good pulse on things.
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Jan 27, 2021 14:53
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Scotsman posted:Tails is on a 2 game streak. Only at Super Bowl 3 and 4 did it go on a 2 game streak and then not win the next one. I believe there have been 5 different 3+ Super Bowl streaks for Tails. It's a streaky side of the coin and I like it. 6 out of the last 7 tails. An unseasoned gambler would tell you that the coin has no memory and each flip is independent, but that’s just what big coin wants you to think. The real truth is they started to use special commemorative coins every year which are heavier on the heads side, and thus more often land tails up. Search your heart, you know it to be true.
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Jan 27, 2021 15:02
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Scotsman posted:Tails is on a 2 game streak. Only at Super Bowl 3 and 4 did it go on a 2 game streak and then not win the next one. I believe there have been 5 different 3+ Super Bowl streaks for Tails. It's a streaky side of the coin and I like it. this is dumb. obviously what you need to do is steal the actual coin they will be using, figure out which side is weighted heavier based off the relief design, then kidnap the head referee and hypnotize him so he flips that side facing up when he tosses the coin.
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Jan 27, 2021 21:25
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The best Super Bowl prop is the colour of the gatorade dumped on the winning coach, always bet orange
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Jan 28, 2021 00:31
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Scotsman posted:Just a thought but I think if people are going to be posting bets or picks or what they are on in this thread, it would be good to provide some sort of reasoning (jase1 the exception). This please. Also, please include as much jargon and statistical acronyms as are applicable. I just spent an hour reading about xGF and xGA.
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Jan 28, 2021 02:38
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Mr. Toodles posted:This please. Also, please include as much jargon and statistical acronyms as are applicable. I just spent an hour reading about xGF and xGA. Advanced metrics can be great to read about. Just don't 100% rely on them of course. I see people make that mistake all the time. I prefer to use them as a baseline. Were you focusing on any sport in particular? For the others - xGF for example in simplest terms is expected goals scored/for. Many people will look at a team with a high xGF but actual low goals scored and come to the conclusion "They're creating the chances, so they're bound to start scoring loads eventually. Oh look they're playing a team with a high xGA they're going to hammer them". There can be numerous factors for this sort of scenario. It could be simple variance that they aren't scoring at their expectation. Could be going against good goalies. Could be shite strikers/forwards etc. Just to name a few. Looking at overall xGF is a decent little start but there are many more metrics to consider (depending on the sport) and then you really should go to the player level. I will say that I found it all quite easy to learn and understand and I'm able to read the advanced metrics fairly easily these days and understand what I am looking for etc and what things mean. Also betting based on numbers is good as it emotionally disconnects you from the bet. My suggestion for anyone looking to get into it more would be to pick a sport/league they are passionate about, google advanced metrics (depending on the sport I can also try and share URLs), then make predictions for the next weeks/nights game based on these metrics. Maybe limit it to the last 5 games so it's not overwhelming. Write down your reasons for each prediction etc based on the metrics - then the day after look back at them. See where you went right, where you went wrong etc. See where you were actually WRONG and where variance was just a factor and so on. Advanced metrics alone won't turn you into a winner but I think they are a great start and a very solid baseline. One thing I really enjoy about them is it disconnects you from the notoriety of the team.
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Jan 28, 2021 03:57
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Scotsman posted:Advanced metrics can be great to read about. Just don't 100% rely on them of course. I see people make that mistake all the time. I prefer to use them as a baseline. Were you focusing on any sport in particular? Awesome post, I'm interested in diving into EPL, do you have any links to share?
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Jan 28, 2021 05:04
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Scotsman posted:Advanced metrics can be great to read about. Just don't 100% rely on them of course. I see people make that mistake all the time. I prefer to use them as a baseline. Were you focusing on any sport in particular? American sports with particular emphasis on NHL, MLB and college hockey. Within my friendly poker game are guys that are way into NFL, some NHL (and horse racing) and a former NBA/Euro basketball pro who is, obviously, way into NBA and college basketball. Our group text is 75% them talking about bets and wins on those bets with next to no strategy discussion, as it seems like they intuitively understand each others bets and will occasionally recommend parlays across sports. I live in Colorado, so big fan of the Avalanche, University of Denver hockey, and the Colorado Rockies (who will always be terrible), but not such a fan that I am blinded to their faults or not willing to bet against them. Thanks for the advice. I am off to google everything, but definitely appreciate any links you may have. I don't know how much will be out on college hockey but there's got to be something even if it isn't March madness type poo poo.
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Jan 28, 2021 06:56
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TraderStav posted:Awesome post, I'm interested in diving into EPL, do you have any links to share? A good one to get started with is: https://understat.com/league/EPL They cover the major leagues. All data is presented in a really nice visual way. Can jump down into play level etc. Deals primarily with xG then xPTs for teams and xA for players.
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Jan 28, 2021 13:37
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