PredictIt: Gambling on Politics

The Something Awful Forums > Discussion > Sports Argument Stadium > Poker Is Totally Rigged > PredictIt: Gambling on Politics

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atarirob: Dec 18, 2002

Gabriel S. posted:

What do you mean by lines? Or what's a good example of how you are betting when pricing changes?

Edit - Maybe a related question or how do I interrupt the graphic below? Is buy yes the amount of offers for "Yes" shares at that price?

I guess its more for the sports betting thread, but at one point on Election Night you could have gotten Biden for like +350 or +400. I know the Georgia run offs had the same situation, you could have gotten great prices on both Democratic candidates during the count. 2016 was the same thing.

They did an amazing stream election night as poo poo was going down. There are some amazing prices you can get live on election night.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=x-Vdj3kdPsU

# ? Jan 17, 2021 22:36

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# ? May 9, 2024 00:02

OAquinas: Jan 27, 2008; Biden has sat immobile on the Iron Throne of America. He is the Master of Malarkey by the will of the gods, and master of a million votes by the might of his inexhaustible calamari.

Gabriel S. posted:

What do you mean by lines? Or what's a good example of how you are betting when pricing changes?

Edit - Maybe a related question or how do I interrupt the graphic below? Is buy yes the amount of offers for "Yes" shares at that price?

Might just be a wonky autocomplete, but I think you're going for "Interpret"

The "Buy Yes" are the offers by people selling Yes shares or looking to buy No (they're inverse)--these are shares people currently hold (selling yes) or are looking to buy (buying No). For the purposes of you buying Yes, they're immediate, guaranteed transactions.
The "Sell Yes" are the current buy offers for people looking to acquire Yes or the sale offers for people looking to sell No. So for buying Yes, they're the price you'd have to beat (offer more) to get shares. Or you could offer just as much and hope someone sells down to your offer (yours would be added on to whichever price you offer to buy, at the end--first come first served. eg, you offer 9c for 500 shares, you'd need someone to sell 51,954 shares first before your buy offer would be filled))

# ? Jan 18, 2021 02:41

ShadowHawk: Jun 25, 2000; CERTIFIED PRE OWNED TESLA OWNER

This seems like the right thread to mention Polymarket

It's like PredictIt except you bet with USDC (a stablecoin cryptocurrency tied to USD). Like PredictIt, it was flooded with insane MAGA Money, even after the election. Unlike PredictIt, there's no max bet.

In December after the electoral college votes were finalized you could still have bet over $200,000 on 92% odds that Trump would not be inaugurated for a second term. Right now it looks like those odds are 97%, or 98% if you want to put 10k in, so there's still room for someone to make ~0.8% ROI in two days if they're willing to brave crypto.

# ? Jan 18, 2021 13:45

Gucci Loafers: May 20, 2006; Ask yourself, do you really want to talk to pair of really nice gaudy shoes?

OAquinas posted:

Might just be a wonky autocomplete, but I think you're going for "Interpret"

The "Buy Yes" are the offers by people selling Yes shares or looking to buy No (they're inverse)--these are shares people currently hold (selling yes) or are looking to buy (buying No). For the purposes of you buying Yes, they're immediate, guaranteed transactions.
The "Sell Yes" are the current buy offers for people looking to acquire Yes or the sale offers for people looking to sell No. So for buying Yes, they're the price you'd have to beat (offer more) to get shares. Or you could offer just as much and hope someone sells down to your offer (yours would be added on to whichever price you offer to buy, at the end--first come first served. eg, you offer 9c for 500 shares, you'd need someone to sell 51,954 shares first before your buy offer would be filled))

Just to make sure I am following you... Are these descriptions accurate?

Is there seriously no iPhone App?

Gucci Loafers fucked around with this message at 23:41 on Jan 18, 2021

# ? Jan 18, 2021 23:32

ShadowHawk: Jun 25, 2000; CERTIFIED PRE OWNED TESLA OWNER

Gabriel S. posted:

Just to make sure I am following you... Are these descriptions accurate?

Is there seriously no iPhone App?

I believe max payout includes the winning fees, but not the withdrawal fee. It's actually a button you can click to see the whole payout matrix

The 60 yes offers can come from either no bids at 40 or people already holding yes placing orders to sell at 60

# ? Jan 18, 2021 23:47

Gucci Loafers: May 20, 2006; Ask yourself, do you really want to talk to pair of really nice gaudy shoes?

ShadowHawk posted:

I believe max payout includes the winning fees, but not the withdrawal fee. It's actually a button you can click to see the whole payout matrix

The 60 yes offers can come from either no bids at 40 or people already holding yes placing orders to sell at 60

How I understand the risk column? How are these values calculated?

# ? Jan 19, 2021 00:07

shame on an IGA: Apr 8, 2005

Gabriel S. posted:

How I understand the risk column? How are these values calculated?

The risk column is how much you lose if you hold all your current shares in all brackets in that market to expiration and that bracket wins.

Right now, you have $49 total in the market and your original investment is included in "total payout". So the way to look at this is if D/R resolves yes, you bought $47.95 for $49 and lost $1.05.

If D/D resolves yes, you bought $46.95 for $49 and lose $2 and change

Cause they can't BOTH happen, see? So it's giving you your winnings on that bracket - losses in all other mutually exclusive brackets, for that outcome.

In the alternate universe where republicans retroactively take the house, you lose everything.

shame on an IGA fucked around with this message at 00:24 on Jan 19, 2021

# ? Jan 19, 2021 00:18

Lutha Mahtin: Oct 10, 2010; Your brokebrain sin is absolved...go and shitpost no more!

ShadowHawk posted:

This seems like the right thread to mention Polymarket

It's like PredictIt except you bet with USDC (a stablecoin cryptocurrency tied to USD). Like PredictIt, it was flooded with insane MAGA Money, even after the election. Unlike PredictIt, there's no max bet.

In December after the electoral college votes were finalized you could still have bet over $200,000 on 92% odds that Trump would not be inaugurated for a second term. Right now it looks like those odds are 97%, or 98% if you want to put 10k in, so there's still room for someone to make ~0.8% ROI in two days if they're willing to brave crypto.

do we really not have a forums rule against coiners shilling their off-brand bitcoin scams

# ? Jan 19, 2021 00:52

i say swears online: Mar 4, 2005

is that what's happening? poly's shady but it's new and maybe deserves attention. I applied for a job there last week, but would never bet there because cryptlol

# ? Jan 19, 2021 01:03

Baddog: May 12, 2001

Lutha Mahtin posted:

do we really not have a forums rule against coiners shilling their off-brand bitcoin scams

Any evidence it's a scam? Looks new, so I'd advise against putting any significant amount into it, but I've made plenty on bitcoin betting sites. Good practice is to get your money off asap, reduces risk of getting goxed.

# ? Jan 19, 2021 01:10

shame on an IGA: Apr 8, 2005

bus hustler posted:

Isn't D House R Senate impossible under the rules? Isn't #1 "no" basically free money as either it's actually "no" (D/D) and you win outright at a currently good price, or it's 50 R 49 D until they swear in, which resolves all markets to "no"

(this is why i play with fun money on this site, its rules are confusing)

In the event that neither party has 51 or more sitting Senators at that time, then neither party has Senate control as defined in the Rules, and all contracts will resolve as No.

The republicans may maintain a majority until 2/21 or 2/22 but not by this market's rules.

Wait I'm looking at this again and, as far as I can tell, D-D NO is a sure thing someone explain why I'm wrong, please

# ? Jan 19, 2021 01:14

The Joe Man: Apr 7, 2007; Flirting With Apathetic Waitresses Since 1984

shame on an IGA posted:

Wait I'm looking at this again and, as far as I can tell, D-D NO is a sure thing someone explain why I'm wrong, please

Read further. Kamala counts.

# ? Jan 19, 2021 01:16

Baddog: May 12, 2001

shame on an IGA posted:

Wait I'm looking at this again and, as far as I can tell, D-D NO is a sure thing someone explain why I'm wrong, please

Kamala will count. So if they get the new senators sworn in tomorrow afternoon, Dems will have it.

I bailed, just seems so iffy right now. My gut still says it's unlikely, but who knows.

# ? Jan 19, 2021 01:17

Fritz the Horse: Dec 26, 2019; ... of course!

I would be careful with the Balance of Power bet tomorrow.

I still think it's more likely GA won't rush to finish certification tomorrow, but it's possible they announce at some point "things are going smoothly and we intend to certify and transmit certification to the Senate by end of day the 19th" and then that market is going to collapse within minutes.

I plan to pull out around midday. If there are any issues that would delay certification, they might be announced in the morning and then the bet is a lock.

Once we hit afternoon that's when I think a "we're on track to certify by close of business" announcement could come. Of course, that doesn't mean they get somebody to DC in time for swearing in on Wednesday but that becomes a risky, swingy market and I do not want to be glued to my computer for it.

Basically I'm going to sit on it in the morning and maybe we'll get an announcement that certification will be later. If we don't hear anything by noonish I'm cashing out.

edit: apparently Fulton county decertified over the weekend so there may be drama

iirc there were rumors that there were some precincts reporting 0 votes in Fulton?

https://results.enr.clarityelections.com/GA/107556/web.264614/#/access-to-races

Fritz the Horse fucked around with this message at 01:50 on Jan 19, 2021

# ? Jan 19, 2021 01:38

Strong Sauce: Jul 2, 2003; You know I am not really your father.

Lutha Mahtin posted:

do we really not have a forums rule against coiners shilling their off-brand bitcoin scams

discussion of this is fine. don't think he owns that site

per forum rules.. no one is allowed to ask for trades/money and that includes cryptocurrency trades. i think most people here are clear, or should be clear, that everything in the betting world is risky. if you want to gamble/discuss bets on polymarket, that's fine.

# ? Jan 19, 2021 01:52

mcmagic: Jul 1, 2004; If you see this avatar while scrolling the succ zone, you have been visited by the mcmagic of shitty lib takes! Good luck and prosperity will come to you, but only if you reply "shut the fuck up mcmagic" to this post!

Looks like DD Y is like 50% now. What changed?

# ? Jan 19, 2021 01:58

i say swears online: Mar 4, 2005

everybody is unsure lol

# ? Jan 19, 2021 02:06

Gucci Loafers: May 20, 2006; Ask yourself, do you really want to talk to pair of really nice gaudy shoes?

shame on an IGA posted:

The risk column is how much you lose if you hold all your current shares in all brackets in that market to expiration and that bracket wins.

Right now, you have $49 total in the market and your original investment is included in "total payout". So the way to look at this is if D/R resolves yes, you bought $47.95 for $49 and lost $1.05.

If D/D resolves yes, you bought $46.95 for $49 and lose $2 and change

Cause they can't BOTH happen, see? So it's giving you your winnings on that bracket - losses in all other mutually exclusive brackets, for that outcome.

In the alternate universe where republicans retroactively take the house, you lose everything.

Ah hah! The () indicate negative numbers. That's makes sense. This is going get super interesting with hedging bets.

# ? Jan 19, 2021 02:32

Gucci Loafers: May 20, 2006; Ask yourself, do you really want to talk to pair of really nice gaudy shoes?

https://twitter.com/WestWingReport/status/1351342168049393665?s=20

I still think he's going to pardon himself.

# ? Jan 19, 2021 02:35

OAquinas: Jan 27, 2008; Biden has sat immobile on the Iron Throne of America. He is the Master of Malarkey by the will of the gods, and master of a million votes by the might of his inexhaustible calamari.

One thing about PI to look out for: the pumps
No news, no reason, suddenly the price shifts. Could be due to comments, could just be people throwing money around. It's meant to scare and shift the market and allow for the whales to hoover up cheap shares.

Of course, it could also be people with inside/early info dumping shares. This isn't the stock market; there's no penalty for that, and it totally happens. So you have to be careful and canny--this isn't for the timid/faint of heart.

# ? Jan 19, 2021 03:07

Fritz the Horse: Dec 26, 2019; ... of course!

Fulton County GA is meeting 9am tomorrow to "re-certify"

https://www.fultoncountyga.gov/services/voting-and-elections/registration-and-elections-board

That makes it increasingly unlikely they certify before inauguration and D/D no + D/R yes are the winners

for whatever reason the price of this bet continues to drop so you can get in at 47c

# ? Jan 19, 2021 03:21

Gucci Loafers: May 20, 2006; Ask yourself, do you really want to talk to pair of really nice gaudy shoes?

OAquinas posted:

One thing about PI to look out for: the pumps
No news, no reason, suddenly the price shifts. Could be due to comments, could just be people throwing money around. It's meant to scare and shift the market and allow for the whales to hoover up cheap shares.

Of course, it could also be people with inside/early info dumping shares. This isn't the stock market; there's no penalty for that, and it totally happens. So you have to be careful and canny--this isn't for the timid/faint of heart.

Totally get that. That's the whole attraction I get out of all of this.

Fritz the Horse posted:

Fulton County GA is meeting 9am tomorrow to "re-certify"

https://www.fultoncountyga.gov/services/voting-and-elections/registration-and-elections-board

That makes it increasingly unlikely they certify before inauguration and D/D no + D/R yes are the winners

for whatever reason the price of this bet continues to drop so you can get in at 47c

If this doesn't pan out, this is going to be baby's first loss. :smith:

# ? Jan 19, 2021 04:53

Fritz the Horse: Dec 26, 2019; ... of course!

Gabriel S. posted:

If this doesn't pan out, this is going to be baby's first loss.

the betting market is going to be wild tomorrow so hold onto your butt

I bought into the rules cuck early and am playing with house money

I still think it's highly unlikely that Ossoff and Warnock are sworn in by Wednesday

# ? Jan 19, 2021 05:21

ShadowHawk: Jun 25, 2000; CERTIFIED PRE OWNED TESLA OWNER

Lutha Mahtin posted:

do we really not have a forums rule against coiners shilling their off-brand bitcoin scams

Yeah I don't own the site I more brought it up to show how much dumb money is out there. People would absolutely be putting hundreds of thousands into pro-Trump bets right now if PredictIt rules allowed it.

# ? Jan 19, 2021 06:13

mcmagic: Jul 1, 2004; If you see this avatar while scrolling the succ zone, you have been visited by the mcmagic of shitty lib takes! Good luck and prosperity will come to you, but only if you reply "shut the fuck up mcmagic" to this post!

Fritz the Horse posted:

Fulton County GA is meeting 9am tomorrow to "re-certify"

https://www.fultoncountyga.gov/services/voting-and-elections/registration-and-elections-board

That makes it increasingly unlikely they certify before inauguration and D/D no + D/R yes are the winners

for whatever reason the price of this bet continues to drop so you can get in at 47c

Why wouldn't they just recertify tomorrow?

# ? Jan 19, 2021 06:34

Fritz the Horse: Dec 26, 2019; ... of course!

mcmagic posted:

Why wouldn't they just recertify tomorrow?

it throws uncertainty into the certification timeline

I mean I dunno, tune in to their youtube proceedings at 9am EST tomorrow to find out

# ? Jan 19, 2021 06:37

Strong Sauce: Jul 2, 2003; You know I am not really your father.

https://twitter.com/dipiteee/status/1351413701023248386

# ? Jan 19, 2021 10:03

mcmagic: Jul 1, 2004; If you see this avatar while scrolling the succ zone, you have been visited by the mcmagic of shitty lib takes! Good luck and prosperity will come to you, but only if you reply "shut the fuck up mcmagic" to this post!

DD Y getting pumped big time. Over 70 now.

# ? Jan 19, 2021 13:57

shame on an IGA: Apr 8, 2005

yeah I got back into DD NO at .23 lol

# ? Jan 19, 2021 15:23

mcmagic: Jul 1, 2004; If you see this avatar while scrolling the succ zone, you have been visited by the mcmagic of shitty lib takes! Good luck and prosperity will come to you, but only if you reply "shut the fuck up mcmagic" to this post!

Might be time to buy DD Y

# ? Jan 19, 2021 15:29

Fritz the Horse: Dec 26, 2019; ... of course!

mcmagic posted:

Might be time to buy DD Y

It's going to be wildly volatile all day and we are at the same place we were on Friday at 5pm.

This is just a lot of panic buying/selling

# ? Jan 19, 2021 15:56

Gucci Loafers: May 20, 2006; Ask yourself, do you really want to talk to pair of really nice gaudy shoes?

Any idea how much longer until the next big news update?

# ? Jan 19, 2021 16:10

mcmagic: Jul 1, 2004; If you see this avatar while scrolling the succ zone, you have been visited by the mcmagic of shitty lib takes! Good luck and prosperity will come to you, but only if you reply "shut the fuck up mcmagic" to this post!

Fritz the Horse posted:

It's going to be wildly volatile all day and we are at the same place we were on Friday at 5pm.

This is just a lot of panic buying/selling

Well now is the time to buy no... 13 cents.

# ? Jan 19, 2021 16:12

mfcrocker: Jan 31, 2004; Hot Rope Guy

mcmagic posted:

Well now is the time to buy no... 13 cents.

Came here to say this, holy moley that's low

# ? Jan 19, 2021 16:13

i say swears online: Mar 4, 2005

just got 5k at .14ddno

# ? Jan 19, 2021 16:14

Gucci Loafers: May 20, 2006; Ask yourself, do you really want to talk to pair of really nice gaudy shoes?

New to this, are you saying you've got 5,000 No shares at .14c?

# ? Jan 19, 2021 16:19

i say swears online: Mar 4, 2005

yeah, the dd just specifies the balance of power market bracket

# ? Jan 19, 2021 16:21

Gucci Loafers: May 20, 2006; Ask yourself, do you really want to talk to pair of really nice gaudy shoes?

drat,

I've only got about 150 DR Yes @ .47c. This is only my very first market. Hopefully, I don't lose $50. :smith:

# ? Jan 19, 2021 16:25

bus hustler: Mar 14, 2019

Apparently the state certified, so like all of these markets its about strapping yourself in for the wild 48 hour ride, not what actually ends up happening (if you got in at good prices)

# ? Jan 19, 2021 16:26

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# ? May 9, 2024 00:02

mcmagic: Jul 1, 2004; If you see this avatar while scrolling the succ zone, you have been visited by the mcmagic of shitty lib takes! Good luck and prosperity will come to you, but only if you reply "shut the fuck up mcmagic" to this post!

5 cents lol

# ? Jan 19, 2021 16:26

The Something Awful Forums > Discussion > Sports Argument Stadium > Poker Is Totally Rigged > PredictIt: Gambling on Politics

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