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Thats what everyone is saying in PiT comments but I dont see it edit... https://results.enr.clarityelections.com/GA/107556/web.274956/#/summary so they're saying this means it is usually official & there is nothing on the fulton county thing about re-scheduling. but the market is crazy because they still aren't sworn in. not predicting the outcome, just poo poo will move this market in the next 2 days. bus hustler fucked around with this message at 16:31 on Jan 19, 2021 |
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Jan 19, 2021 16:28
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bus hustler posted:Thats what everyone is saying in PiT comments but I dont see it Yeah, I think this is going to be one to day trade tomorrow because it's going to go haywire E: gently caress, didn't realise PI was US citizens only. How boring
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Jan 19, 2021 16:43
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99% sure it hasn't fully certified yet... can't imagine it wouldn't be somewhere on Twitter. I have alerts up for all sorts of things related to this. I hosed myself though, work had an absolutely major security incident and I'm 1) in higher than I could be right now and 2) super loving busy from now until whenever and can't sit to watch this market.
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Jan 19, 2021 16:45
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bus hustler posted:Apparently the state certified, so like all of these markets its about strapping yourself in for the wild 48 hour ride, not what actually ends up happening (if you got in at good prices) don't trust PI comments
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Jan 19, 2021 16:47
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 at all the comments that the State doesn't care about Democracy and threw 600 votes away.
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Jan 19, 2021 16:50
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Fritz the Horse posted:don't trust PI comments I never do, that's why PI is easy money. Axios yesterday said they were told by GA Sec of State "Wed."
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Jan 19, 2021 16:51
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bus hustler posted:I never do, that's why PI is easy money. Axios yesterday said they were told by GA Sec of State "Wed." Yeah, but on the call they were more concerned about next cycle than this one. Pretty sure this one's cooked. DD-Y is looking strong; they're on track to swear in all 3 senators tomorrow after Kamala gets her Veep powers. Who knew that Georgia could work fast/would have the only GOP elections officials not interested in dragging their feet to cert dems?
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Jan 19, 2021 17:15
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I agree it'll probably happen but how long will people stay in and not poo poo their pants? https://twitter.com/GabrielSterling/status/1351542354616975360 bus hustler fucked around with this message at 17:22 on Jan 19, 2021 |
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Jan 19, 2021 17:18
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Lost $100 on baby's first bet. 
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Jan 19, 2021 17:25
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I pulled my initial bet so I'm playing with house money. Some reports that a swearing in is planned for tomorrow, but Georgia SoS said they expect to certify by end of Wednesday. Still waiting on cert.
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Jan 19, 2021 18:08
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https://twitter.com/tperry518/status/1351576766410878985
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Jan 19, 2021 18:25
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Yes it's possible they do a swearing in even if the certification hasn't arrived and then they just re-do the swearing in for real later. It's unclear how PI will interpret its rules in that case.
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Jan 19, 2021 18:32
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Fritz the Horse posted:Yes it's possible they do a swearing in even if the certification hasn't arrived and then they just re-do the swearing in for real later. That seems like a "spirit of the market" loss to me but who knows lol
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Jan 19, 2021 18:34
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GA SoS certified so it's pretty much over. I got out last Friday with my bankroll so didn't lose anything but man this has been a wild ride.
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Jan 19, 2021 18:53
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Fritz the Horse posted:It's unclear how PI will interpret its rules in that case. welcome to PI my friend
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Jan 19, 2021 20:03
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I bought a few more late that will wind up making this market a small loss I think The way the cookie crumbles when you get greedy.
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Jan 19, 2021 20:07
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Jan 19, 2021 20:15
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If you think this was bad, you should have seen the tweet markets where people bet on the number of tweets done by @RDT, @POTUS, etc. Riding high, no problems, then BAM, 20 tweet storm blowing up the brackets.
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Jan 19, 2021 20:22
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I dont really bet anywhere else but thats why I grind out smaller returns on the site, it's so easy to play w/ house money on PiT. I do try to avoid the total prop bets like # of tweets.
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Jan 19, 2021 20:33
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Is there a limit to how many contracts or shares you are able to purchase? Is the $850 limit on each contract? Not total contracts? What I am trying to understand - how much volume - in USD - is moving around in these bets?
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Jan 20, 2021 00:54
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Gabriel S. posted:Is there a limit to how many contracts or shares you are able to purchase? Is the $850 limit on each contract? Not total contracts? 850 per yes/no option.
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Jan 20, 2021 01:09
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Baddog posted:850 per yes/no option. So... You are telling me people could just dump tens of thousands of dollars? 
Gucci Loafers fucked around with this message at 01:35 on Jan 20, 2021 |
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Jan 20, 2021 01:16
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Gabriel S. posted:So... Yes Gabriel, and looking for more markets, hah!
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Jan 20, 2021 01:23
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I have had twenty thousand dollars invested into various forms of "no Trump will not mysteriously win after conclusively losing" since late November. Even with reinvested winnings they keep making new markets with obvious bets I can't max unless I deposit more money
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Jan 20, 2021 03:20
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ShadowHawk posted:I have had twenty thousand dollars invested into various forms of "no Trump will not mysteriously win after conclusively losing" since late November. Even with reinvested winnings they keep making new markets with obvious bets I can't max unless I deposit more money That's absurd amount of money. And awesome.  If you don't mind, how much did you start with? What bets did you put money on?
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Jan 20, 2021 03:26
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Gabriel S. posted:That's absurd amount of money. And awesome. Right now my holdings waiting to mature are: No on Biden renominating Trump's pick for all the cabinet markets and getting them confirmed through a Democratic senate No on there being fewer impeachment votes in the House for Trump than there are democrats No on Republicans magically winning 3 more states in the house (they get either 27, or 26 if that one Iowa one changes unexpectedly in court) No on Trump getting 5% more of the vote than he actually did in two markets Almost all of these you can still put money into right now if you haven't hit the max bet. Although at smaller margins than I got in for, and not worth the withdrawal fee unless you're gonna roll it around PredictIt for a while. I bet Joe Biden and Donald Trump would be the nominees two weeks prior to the conventions, long after all primaries were decided. Then after their nominations I bet that Biden and Trump wouldn't drop out, and that Hillary wouldn't announce a surprise candidacy. This was one week before election day:  Then just before election day it was on things like Trump losing obvious blue states, that the winner would be either a Republican or Democrat, that Kanye wouldn't come in third. Immediately after election day I put money into Trump not having come-from-behind victories where they were still counting mail-in ballots (which very heavily favored Biden.) A little later it was stuff like "Trump losing Wisconsin" even after the second recount. There were not going to be an enormous amount of faithless electors. Neither Trump nor Biden would concede within the next 7 days of Trump after Trump spent a week declaring he "actually won" There is just so much stupid stupid money, and it is utterly endless. You don't ever get rich quick with this scheme though - it's not like those people who buy 1 cent shares then flip them to bigger fools for 5 cents to quintuple their shares. But it also means you don't have to follow the news religiously and check in on markets frequently - just have a basic sense of what's possible in politics, put your money against the absurd, and come back later to roll it over to the next dumb thing.
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Jan 20, 2021 04:25
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ShadowHawk posted:There is just so much stupid stupid money, and it is utterly endless. You don't ever get rich quick with this scheme though - it's not like those people who buy 1 cent shares then flip them to bigger fools for 5 cents to quintuple their shares. But it also means you don't have to follow the news religiously and check in on markets frequently - just have a basic sense of what's possible in politics, put your money against the absurd, and come back later to roll it over to the next dumb thing. There are just not enough sane high-rollers willing to put big bankrolls on "boring" bets on the site. So if you've got the money and the patience, it's there to take. Or was -- I have no idea if it will continue to be this stupid in the next 2 years.
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Jan 20, 2021 04:31
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ShadowHawk posted:I put 20k in from my credit card (2% cashback!) My portfolio value is currently at 25k Heh. Your strategy is exactly what I was thinking but you've got to have volume and potentially risk that volume but  People actually thought Minnesota was going to flip loving red? In 2020? After all we've been through?Do you have a screenshot of these markets two, three or four weeks before the election? ShadowHawk posted:The reason for this being persistently available is due in part to the rules of PredictIt. For every moron max-betting Trump will win California at 5%, there need to be 20 people maxed on the other side of that bet taking the No just to prevent the price from rising even further. I understand your last bit but I'm a little unclear what you mean by it being persistently available due to the rules and how maxed bets don't increase the price. Are you able to go into more detail? Gucci Loafers fucked around with this message at 05:38 on Jan 20, 2021 |
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Jan 20, 2021 04:50
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Gabriel S. posted:
https://www.nytimes.com/elections/2016/results/minnesota
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Jan 20, 2021 05:02
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The Joe Man posted:We were effectively purple in 2016: Don't get me wrong, it's freaking sad the state is turning red. Minneapolis and even Duluth are incredibly underrated cities but in absolutely no way was Minnesota going to Red for Trump in 2020.
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Jan 20, 2021 05:08
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Gabriel S. posted:Do you have a screenshot of these markets two, three or four weeks before the election? quote:I understand your last bit but I'm a little unclear what you mean by it being persistently available due to the rules and how maxed bets don't increase the price. Are you able to go into more detail? For those 85,000 shares to be available in the order book, there have to be 100 people max-betting 850 dollars on 99% Biden winning DC. Which is just a massive amount of people putting tons of money chasing such a small return. That money could instead be betting on, say, blue Minnesota. So instead the price rises up from 1 cent, even though almost everyone with a brain and money believes the actual odds of Trump winning DC are less than 1%. And this logic continues well into the 5% range, at which point it even becomes profitable to put new money on the site just to make this bet. But even that doesn't clear the market, because it's a big hassle and there aren't that many relatively rich people chasing pennies betting against garbage
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Jan 20, 2021 05:38
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Yes there are 2-8% returns sitting all over PredictIt On $850 it's never that much money but it adds up. I'm mad I saw money in D/R Y and wiped out all of my earlier D/D Y winnings Can always root for a riot and the swearing in be delayed 
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Jan 20, 2021 16:14
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Heads up on possible rules shenanigans on the "x votes to convict" markets: Any Senate vote on potential conviction that does not result in the recording of votes shall not be considered sufficient for this market to resolve to Yes, regardless of the outcome of that vote. This is different from the "How many Senators will vote to convict Donald Trump on incitement by Apr. 29?" market, where an anonymous or voice vote might resolve as 67 or more if successful. So it's quite possible Romney votes to impeach, tells everyone he will, and then the market resolves no.
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Jan 21, 2021 02:12
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ShadowHawk posted:What I mean to emphasize is that the max bet is a dollar limit not a share one. So some idiot bets 850 dollars on 1% odds that Trump will win Washington DC. That means he buys 85,000 shares, or the price rises. I'm a little lost here so bear with me or maybe I was getting this but one "No" share at 1% odds would be .01¢ and you'd have to already have at least $8,500 in "Yes" shares. What do you mean by how it continues into the 5% range and how it doesn't clear the market? bus hustler posted:Yes there are 2-8% returns sitting all over PredictIt I've noticed this as well and if anyone has any tips or tricks or what not on how to build a bankroll I'm super interested. I've only put in $1,000 and I think I'll play with that until April. If lose it then I'll have re-think if this game is for me but hopefully that doesn't happen!  ShadowHawk posted:Heads up on possible rules shenanigans on the "x votes to convict" markets: A voice vote or anonymous vote aren't considered recorded?
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Jan 21, 2021 02:39
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A guy on the 1 cent side can buy 85000 shares before hitting the $850 cap. To balance out those shares and keep the price steady, 99 people have to max out on the other side at 0.99 each. Edit: there isn't any "house" here, we are betting against each other and predict takes a cut. So for everyone that buys a position, someone has to take the opposite side. Baddog fucked around with this message at 02:51 on Jan 21, 2021 |
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Jan 21, 2021 02:48
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That makes sense to me now but how does betting impact the price of each share? Goddamn, there are some bets I'd honestly take a gamble on for a 1:100 payout.
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Jan 21, 2021 02:57
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Gabriel S. posted:I'm a little lost here so bear with me or maybe I was getting this but one "No" share at 1% odds would be .01¢ and you'd have to already have at least $8,500 in "Yes" shares. The situation would be different if there was no max investment per market. I and presumably many others would be willing to bet tens or hundreds of thousands of dollars that Biden won't go insane, renominate Mike Pompeo as Secretary of State, and get him confirmed. But I can only bet 850, so the price for Pompeo stays a bit higher than a "rational" market would place him.
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Jan 21, 2021 02:58
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It's been 850 forever, predictit should lobby to get the caps raised.
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Jan 21, 2021 03:00
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Gabriel S. posted:That makes sense to me now but how does betting impact the price of each share? Instead they're more like a stock exchange. So every person placing a 5 cent yes bid is either buying it from an existing shareholder selling, or getting matched with someone who has an unfilled 95 cent (or lower) no bid. The latter is what creates "new" shares.
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Jan 21, 2021 03:01
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Having trouble getting freed up money into new "lock" markets. Hopefully they get moving with creating all the new world end of year bets soon.
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Jan 21, 2021 03:11
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