|
Chad Sexington posted:The SPAC game isn't about long-term value investing though. Might as well just buy index funds. In the abstract I think all the measures Ackman is employing to prevent people from just dumping stocks are interesting, but this deal is stupidly complicated and who the gently caress knows how to value all the pieces. It's not bullish I know that much! I disagree about your thoughts about the SPAC game. At least for me, I always saw it as a low-risk place to invest with a lot of future potential. The gains back in Feb were abnormal for the entire market and you can't expect SPACs to match that kind of performance. Investing in a SPAC usually has a 2-year window, if you want quick gains you are generally going to have to do something riskier with your money. I'm not saying this is a great deal, they made it complicated so it is hard to evaluate. On its face, 40b valuation for 7b in revenue doesn't seem terrible, but there are a lot of details we don't know. And yes, it's not a sexy target to get the Reddit pump, but depending on the deal, it could be a good long-term play.
|
#
?
Jun 4, 2021 18:46
|
|
|
|
| # ? May 3, 2024 16:58 |
|
|
dalstrs posted:The gains back in Feb were abnormal for the entire market and you can't expect SPACs to match that kind of performance The flip side of this is that the gains in SPACs from June 2020 through December/January were also very abnormal.
|
|
#
?
Jun 4, 2021 20:14
|
|
|
Thorn Wishes Talon posted:The flip side of this is that the gains in SPACs from June 2020 through December/January were also very abnormal. Can we not say that about most stocks during that timeframe of the pandemic?
|
|
#
?
Jun 5, 2021 00:42
|
|
|
dalstrs posted:Can we not say that about most stocks during that timeframe of the pandemic? I don't think we can. The stock market went up by 30-40% during that timeframe, whereas some people here who played the SPAC game saw gains as high as 500%, maybe more.
|
|
#
?
Jun 5, 2021 20:21
|
|
|
Yeah my portfolio went up 610% between November and February and I've been treading water since then. Totally got spoiled. 
|
|
#
?
Jun 5, 2021 22:30
|
|
|
There was definitely a bubble, but did anyone really expect those kinds of gains to continue? I'd love it if they did, but I mostly see the SPACs as a safe way to hold money with some potential upside, at least, as long as you are investing at near or below nav. I hoped PSTH would get a better bump after announcing a target, but I'm still not sure this was a bad deal, just not one that could get some of that oomph that rockets it up.
|
|
#
?
Jun 6, 2021 00:29
|
|
|
Stolen from r/spacs
|
|
#
?
Jun 7, 2021 03:41
|
|
|
dalstrs posted:I mostly see the SPACs as a safe way to hold money with some potential upside, at least, as long as you are investing at near or below nav. That was how I looked at it during the bubble though honestly. Because there was still a good chance that your SPAC would be a total whiff. So it was still mostly just a place to park cash with potential for upside. That some people made a lot playing options on the handful of rocket ships is besides the point. I don't see how you could look at the current market and see it as the same thing. The whole sector has basically collapsed. There are too many SPACs out there competing for too few valuable companies. The "potential for upside" is radically diminished when the pitch is basically "you have a one in several hundred chance to get a DA which at best has a 3-5 year horizon for profitability and will trade around NAV for the indefinite future." I guess if your read is that the overall stock market is poised to tank, then the $10 floor might still be attractive, but then why not just put your money into bonds or something?
|
|
#
?
Jun 7, 2021 13:36
|
|
|
Chad Sexington posted:
Mostly low-risk lottery tickets, bonds don't have the potential for a pop like a SPAC could. I'm not looking for SPACs to invest in like during the bubble, but I'll hold money in some of the ones that have seemingly good management teams. My main thing is diversity, I'm not keeping a significant % of my portfolio in any 1 thing.
|
|
#
?
Jun 7, 2021 15:29
|
|
|
Just dumped all my DHHC at a loss after seeing the giant cluster around Lordstown AND their failure to file quarterly reports. Not at all what you want to see from a management group.
|
|
#
?
Jun 10, 2021 15:06
|
|
|
So FTOC is evidently merging with Payoneer. Why is it still trading so close to $10?
|
|
#
?
Jun 10, 2021 15:56
|
|
|
HelloNewman posted:So FTOC is evidently merging with Payoneer. Why is it still trading so close to $10? Why wouldn't it?
|
|
#
?
Jun 10, 2021 16:16
|
|
|
HelloNewman posted:So FTOC is evidently merging with Payoneer. Why is it still trading so close to $10? This dude did a good writeup. https://twitter.com/SPACMAN17/status/1398652211262013446
|
|
#
?
Jun 10, 2021 17:46
|
|
|
Yes, it's a good writeup. We've had a good 3 months of evidence supporting the theory. As a result, most DAs have been dead money until after merger (and after the usual post-merger selloff). Plus there's no NAV floor to protect you at that point. So either you gamble on which merged companies will do well (which requires a high degree of skill/research to be consistently profitable) or you stick to quality pre-LOI SPACs and hope they land a good target at a good price, and generate profit because prices right now are about as low as they can go. Since you can buy most of those for 9.75 - 9.95 right now, your maximum losses are very minimal as long as you don't hold through merger. FistEnergy fucked around with this message at 17:57 on Jun 10, 2021 |
|
#
?
Jun 10, 2021 17:55
|
|
|
Thanks! Those responses / Twitter thread are incredibly helpful for me to better understand the valuation.
|
|
#
?
Jun 11, 2021 04:21
|
|
|
CCV in talks with Thrasio to take it public.
|
|
#
?
Jun 11, 2021 21:51
|
|
|
I’ve just been sitting on it but are any of you also sitting on ALTU? I accidentally unbookmarked this thread awhile ago and I’m way behind. Edit: 6/18 10c are at 0.01 lol 
|
|
#
?
Jun 14, 2021 19:55
|
|
|
Rolo posted:I’ve just been sitting on it but are any of you also sitting on ALTU? I accidentally unbookmarked this thread awhile ago and I’m way behind. Nope. Got spooked and rolled out of it before it was announced that Aerion died.
|
|
#
?
Jun 14, 2021 20:23
|
|
|
Svok, womp womp to that 6 cent spike off of DA.
|
|
#
?
Jun 14, 2021 20:28
|
|
|
GrandmaParty posted:Nope. Got spooked and rolled out of it before it was announced that Aerion died. Ooops. This is what I get for forgetting to check up on something. At least it wasn’t a lot.
|
|
#
?
Jun 14, 2021 22:19
|
|
|
Joiny posted:Svok, womp womp to that 6 cent spike off of DA. Good valuation, I honestly expected more price movement. I bought in at 9.80 so it's disappointing but no big deal. GSAH was far more annoying to me today. FistEnergy fucked around with this message at 23:24 on Jun 14, 2021 |
|
#
?
Jun 14, 2021 23:21
|
|
|
Anyone else still holding ALUS? Merger vote is coming up next week. I kind of like Freyr, but given the low trading volume AND that it's trading under redemption value... seems like maybe not a good idea to hold.
|
|
#
?
Jun 18, 2021 14:21
|
|
|
wow, this thread sure has been exciting heh real talk though: now that we know SPACs are dead, what's next?
|
|
#
?
Jun 22, 2021 08:14
|
|
|
Thorn Wishes Talon posted:wow, this thread sure has been exciting cryp- oh wait
|
|
#
?
Jun 22, 2021 09:35
|
|
|
$BCYP didn't even move on DA. Exit ramp, made $2!
|
|
#
?
Jun 23, 2021 19:05
|
|
|
The game has changed. It's a lot more involved now and it's playing these things as they exit spactown and move to despactown. Like slinging stocks Gross. (Get into warrants below a buck).
|
|
#
?
Jun 23, 2021 19:38
|
|
|
Lol, I was holding onto my swbk until a da was announced, but apparently that happened a month ago it was just such a wet fart that it didn't even blip the price. Oh well, that was my last spac. 
|
|
#
?
Jun 25, 2021 09:28
|
|
|
BTAQ, SVOK, ACEV and TINV are my leftover turds -- still kinda hoping BTAQ does something but I'll just be happy to get out break-even at this point.
|
|
#
?
Jun 28, 2021 18:35
|
|
|
I'm loading the gently caress up on hcic warrants.
|
|
#
?
Jun 28, 2021 18:42
|
|
|
GrandmaParty posted:I'm loving furious at the turd that is ASTS. She is no longer a turd.
|
|
#
?
Jun 30, 2021 19:43
|
|
|
Anybody else on the MUDS/TOPP train? 
|
|
#
?
Jun 30, 2021 21:49
|
|
|
Fingers crossed that Polestar is gonna go CCIV style nuts.
|
|
#
?
Jul 11, 2021 16:20
|
|
|
RIP $ACEV/$ACEVW
|
|
#
?
Jul 12, 2021 15:34
|
|
|
Let's talk about how the game is played now. 1. Institutions buy spac units for $10.00 and split them into commons and warrants. 2. They sell the warrants for a (small but guaranteed) profit and hold the commons. 3. They'll still sell off commons until the price goes below ten because it's still profit for them. 4. If the price is under $10.00 on redemption time, they'll redeem because it's guaranteed profit. This makes the stock take a deuce. 5. In bringing a company public, a lot of times the spac company employs a pipe, who buys a massive amount of shares at $10.00. 6. After merger, they want to protect their investment, so they'll hedge by shorting shares. If the stock goes up, great, their stock goes up. If it doesn't, they still made the profit from the short. Buy cheap warrants and post-merger commons. I like ORGN at these levels a lot. G-Mawwwwwww fucked around with this message at 17:56 on Jul 21, 2021 |
|
#
?
Jul 21, 2021 17:54
|
|
|
One of my last handful of holdings announced yesterday. SPAQ is merging with Allego, a Dutch EV charging company with pretty sketchy revenue projections. My DA "pop" was from 9.70 to 9.88. Shame for me, really, since I played it well according to the older rules of the road. Got units under $10.50. Team with a track record. An EV company! If this had been November 2020 I'd have almost doubled my money. Oh well, trying to decide whether to just liquidate commons now or wait and get my  . Has anyone ever actually tried to redeem shares for cash at the vote? I'm imagining they make it a pain in the rear end.
|
|
#
?
Jul 29, 2021 13:28
|
|
|
Took a tiny loss on the GRSV before the vote tomorrow. Oh well. Couldve been worse
|
|
#
?
Aug 2, 2021 19:23
|
|
|
Don't hold anything through merger, much less PIPE unlock. PIPE exists only to gently caress you and steal your loving money.
|
|
#
?
Aug 2, 2021 20:42
|
|
|
Now that SPACs have run out of steam, what's the next "thing" that guarantees vast levels of wealth?
|
|
#
?
Aug 7, 2021 19:22
|
|
|
Crypto, obviously! (kidding)
|
|
#
?
Aug 7, 2021 22:15
|
|
|
|
| # ? May 3, 2024 16:58 |
|
|
Thorn Wishes Talon posted:Now that SPACs have run out of steam, what's the next "thing" that guarantees vast levels of wealth? Despacs
|
|
#
?
Aug 7, 2021 22:38
|
|