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Offseason 2021-2022 Well, that was a thrilling but disappointing run! Now, to get down to GM business. The offseason and spring training consist of several different phases; I need marching orders to figure out where we're headed. First, we have to establish our Yearly Priorities. Then we have to make our arbitration decisions. Then we have to go through free agency and the Rule 5 draft. And that will bring us to spring training! First, our Yearly Priorities. From where I sit, we have a solid-looking playoff-caliber roster, but we have some significant holes. As always, we're going to be heavily resource-constrained. First, take a look at our contracts, finances, and prospect pool.    Yusei Kukuchi did us a HUGE favor opting out of his contract; between him and Seager's option that potentially cuts $32m from our payroll (to potentially add to the $12m of surplus we already have). We also have 3-4 young and good SP prospects potentially ready for the big leagues next season. We do, however, have some significant holes, mainly on the offensive side of the ball. Right now we have a good group of starting pitchers, an absolutely elite bullpen (soon to get better with the addition of Kenny Giles), a very, very talented but underachieving outfield, and a group of random trashmen around the infield. From where I sit, there are the options I see as possible priorities. 1) Invest our extra cash in extending young players. This gives us some financial stability and potentially saves us money down the line, but also carries some big risk in the case that these guys regress or don't pan out. Extension possibilities include Tyler Mahle, Kyle Lewis, Keibert Ruiz, Julio Rodriguez, Brett De Geus, JP Crawford, Jarred Kelenic, and Pavin Smith. All of these guys are still in either arbitration or pre-arb. We can go up to 10 years on a contract. 2) Remodel 3B. We don't HAVE to cut ties with Seager: he's still a solidly average/above average MLB 3B, and $15m for him is not jaw dropping. There are some solid options to replace him though: we could spend a fortune on an Arenado or Kris Bryant, trade for a talented youngster, or bring in some trashmen from rule 5 and later free agency to compete for the spot. If trade, it'd likely take one of our blue chip prospects or a couple of our elite pitchers to get a deal done for a ML-ready starter...but there are some very exciting young 3Bs out there to consider. 3) Spend big on a marquee free agent. We potentially have the juice to go after either Arenado or Lindor, either of which would fill an immediate need. They'd take virtually all of our money to make it happen, but they'd come on board for "free" in terms of player capital! 4) Trade away some of our excess pitching for prospects or promising youngsters. We have...a lot of good pitchers. A solid rotation already, with several youngsters who look ML-ready just sitting there. We could potentially trade away either a vet or two (Marco Gonzalez, Chris Flexen) or some youngsters (a huge list) to either pump up our farm system somewhere, or bring in some depth or talent for the big club. Here's the league's upcoming free agents:  Arbitration  From where I sit, Kikuchi is the only no-brainer withdraw. He's redundant, and WAY too expensive. We could also consider trading Tom Murphy, who has been great for us, but Keibert Ruiz looks ready to step into the full time role, and $4.6m is a lot for a team like us to pay a backup catcher. I'd also recommend cutting ties with both Middleton and Montero; we could shop them, but neither is likely to bring anything very exciting. If you strongly want to cut ties with any other players, speak up! VOTE Priorities (pick as many as you like, but consider that some are kind of mutually exclusive): 1) Invest our extra cash in extending young players (if this, note who) 2) Remodel 3B (note if you want FA, trashmen, or blue chippers) 3) Spend big on a marquee free agent (if this, note who) 4) Trade away some of our young pitching for prospects or promising youngsters Arbitration List who you want to cut ties with; otherwise, we sign them to a 1 year deal probably pretty close to our offer. If we decide to make some trades, Pete is standing by with the scouting reports.
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Apr 14, 2021 14:44
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Since Kikuchi is under Arb let's see what the market for trading him looks like first before just cutting him for nothing. Even a lotto ticket prospect or two is better than letting him walk. Maybe we can tie that into something to fill one of our holes.
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Apr 14, 2021 15:13
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I'd spend big on Arenado. As for Arbitration, I have no strong opinion, I'd take your suggestions.
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Apr 14, 2021 15:16
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Arb Cuts Murphy, Montero, Middleton. Can Kim play 2B? his primary is listed as SS. If so, shop, then cut Moore. 3B Cut Seager and try to find a Rule 5 guy or trashman / platoon. Singings Assuming Kim can play 2B, sign Lindor if there's a remotely decent deal to be had. SS is a position of need and scarcity and Lindor is extremely good. See if there are any value FAs in the infield and outfield, especially platoon bats for 3B. Trades Move pitching vets for infield prospects, ideally a 3B that's up to a year or two out.
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Apr 14, 2021 15:20
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IcePhoenix posted:Since Kikuchi is under Arb let's see what the market for trading him looks like first before just cutting him for nothing. Even a lotto ticket prospect or two is better than letting him walk. Maybe we can tie that into something to fill one of our holes. The rest of the league was -- shall we say -- uninterested. To the point of being offended that we even asked. KYOON GRIFFEY JR posted:Can Kim play 2B? Yes, he definitely can. In fact, that's far and away his best position (his arm is a bit on the weak side for an elite left-side IF). The only reason he was playing SS is because of JP Crawford's tattered PCL.
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Apr 14, 2021 15:22
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 Here's a few blue-chip/near blue-chip 3Bs for you to consider, kid. Bobby Witt Jr (2.5/4.5). Just finished a solid rookie year as a 20 year old (243/301/410, 2.0 WAR). Fits our ballpark and style of play perfectly, and a potential gold glove 3B or decent SS. He'd cost a fortune though: either Kelenic straight up, or J-Rod plus one of our A pitching prospects. He's likely to be one of the best 3Bs in baseball for the next decade but we're giving up...a lot. KeBryan Hayes (3.0/3.5). His first full season as a 24 year old was brilliant (271/346/438, 5.6 WAR). He's also a gold glove caliber 3B and fits our scheme perfectly. Older and more seasoned than Witt; lower top end, but better right now. Costs a bit less than Witt, but still a bundle. Lol that the Pirates are listening to offers on him. Issac Paredes (2.5/3.0). 22 year old who had a solid quarter season last year (300/358/440). He projects as about an average glove and probably about that slash line, maybe a bit more walks as he matures. A solid contact hitter. Costs one A pitching prospect. Abraham Toro (2.5/3.0) Also just finished a great quarter season (276/381/520). Is probably an average to minus glove, but looks like a plus bat and OBP guy. Costs a bit more than Paredes.
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Apr 14, 2021 15:40
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Some awards: Knebel finished 2nd in Reliever of the Year voting. 28 year old John Nogowski won "rookie" of the year. Marco Gonzalez finished 5th in CY, Tyler Mahle 7th. Dylan Moore won a gold glove in RF. Some early free agent estimates: Frankie Lindo wants 8/350, with an opt out after year 5, and the last 2 years player options. Arenado wants 8/360 with a PO in the last year. Now, if that is making your eyes water, remember, that's just where negotiations START. They'll end up taking less (probably) but the question is, how much less.... Also Arenado won the NL MVP. bewbies fucked around with this message at 15:54 on Apr 14, 2021 |
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Apr 14, 2021 15:51
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Man, the grand Shortstop market is pretty weak if it's just Baez and Lindor. Trade for Hayes because that guy rules and we are under a moral obligation to rescue good players from the Pirates. I'd also say put in a low offer on Baez and see how his market develops. Thordain fucked around with this message at 16:12 on Apr 14, 2021 |
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Apr 14, 2021 16:01
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Please note: I don't understand baseball or baseball stats or strategy. Just eyeballing the charts earlier, though, isn't our weakest position Left Field? I know it's not super important defensively, but surely there's got to be better hitting available from that spot. Or is that where we're eventually trying to move Kelenic? (Did he play all three outfield positions last season for us, or have I lost my mind?)
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Apr 14, 2021 16:50
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Veryslightlymad posted:Please note: I don't understand baseball or baseball stats or strategy. This is a good question, probably worth some discussion. We all know there are 3 OF positions in baseball. They're not entirely interchangeable, but they all require the same basic tools. In OOTP and real life, they're broken down as range (speed + reading the ball + getting to the ball), glove/error (catching and transitioning the ball to throw) and arm (power and accuracy of throws). Center field has long been the place for the best OF defenders, and a good defensive centerfielder is incredibly valuable. Elite defensive CFs who can hit at something like a ML level are incredibly rare, also. By my count, there's exactly four-ish in the world right now: Christian Pache, Byron Buxton, Harrison Bader, and Jackie Bradley Jr (note: this is according to Pete's scouting). Range is the number one quality you look for in a CF; arm is somewhat less important as they're a bit closer to the bases. Left field used to be where you put your worst defender, but in recent years, rangy LF defenders have shown some serious value. Oftentimes now you see a plus defender preferred over the old slow power bat in left. Right field values range a bit less, but a big arm is useful here to make the long throw to 3rd base on a 1st-to-3rd run. If you're going to have a minus range/glove guy, RF is probably the best place for them to be unless you have a weird ballpark like Fenway, where Mookie made big money as a great defensive RF. In addition to the tools, OOTP considers experience at the position. So, a player with very good tools needs to gain experience before reaching their full potential. Usually we manage this by assigning positions early in their minor league career, but you can do the same at the ML level...you'll just have to deal with weaker defense while they get better. So, for us right now, this is how our OF looks: Jarred Kelenic: plus range/glove for the corners, minus for CF. He'll be a great COF defender, minus in center. Long-term, looks like a best-fit for LF. Taylor Trammell: average glove/range and weak arm, probably a LF candidate, or a slight minus in right. Can play center, but will not be great there. Julio Rodriguez: average glove/range, but a plus arm. Ideal RF candidate, will be a slight plus there, but a liability in center. Kyle Lewis: plus range, good glove, above average arm. Could be an elite COF, or a very good CF. Dylan Moore: plus-plus range and a plus arm, mediocre glove though. Elite COF, or good CF. Better OF defender than IF defender. Jake Fraley: solid range and glove, noodle arm. Could be a plus LF, average elsewhere. Pavin Smith: minus everything; could be a passable RF, liability elsewhere. Michael Siani: Plus-plus range and good arm. Possibly excellent CF, elite elsewhere. So, when you see players move positions, oftentimes it is the manager doing it to fill in for injuries (like to Lewis last year). Most guys who can play the corners can do both. A good CF can play anywhere. The tricky thing for us right now is seeing how these youngsters play out...that was the biggest reason for the huge offensive black hole in our outfield last year. Kelenic and J-Rod are both absolute top-shelf prospects, but they both struggled at the ML level last year. Trammell also looks like a potential elite hitter, but hasn't found his ML stroke yet. We'll have to decide this spring what to do about this lot: we can always send one or more down for some more seasoning, let them try to work it out against ML pitching, or even trade them if we think they're looking like busts. bewbies fucked around with this message at 17:24 on Apr 14, 2021 |
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Apr 14, 2021 17:20
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the solution is obviously to trade for byron buxton and then sign him to a huge extension
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Apr 14, 2021 17:28
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Also part of the appeal of our outfield as is is the fact that everyone is under our control for a long time. Lewis is hitting arbitration next year I think but we have a ton of cheap controllable years left for Kelenic, Trammel, and Rodriquez. We could replace them with sure things but even doing that at one position would multiply costs out there. Being in a DH league we can even find ABs for guys who don't start. Better to have a bunch of players with decent odds of getting good spend some time figuring things out while we spend money on other areas.
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Apr 14, 2021 17:51
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bewbies posted:Effort post This is much appreciated. Thank you for the insight. So Kelenic was being felt out at different positions but I believe also covering CF for a while to cover an injury? His jump after his demotion and comeback seemed pretty big.
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Apr 14, 2021 17:58
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Alright, we've been negotiating hard with the Pirates for Ke'Bryan Hayes and this is the best deal we've found: SP George Kirby (2.0/3.0, #23 overall) SP/RP Garret Crochet (2.5/3.0) 1B Sam Travis (2.0/2.0) Kirby is probably ML-ready; he'll be a good control pitcher and inning eater who probably tops out as a 2-3 guy. Crochet seems over his injury from last year, but has been inconsistent so far on the MLB level so far. He's still ridiculously talented though. I have no idea what they want with Travis, he's a AAAA guy at best. Tough call, but it fills a huge position of need with the reigning rookie of the year. Hayes will struggle to reach 20 dingers a year in our spacious ballpark, but he'll put a ton of balls in play, hit a ton of doubles/triples, and get on base all while playing elite 3B defense. Thoughts? bewbies fucked around with this message at 19:27 on Apr 14, 2021 |
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Apr 14, 2021 19:25
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Go for the trade.
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Apr 14, 2021 20:44
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Go for it
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Apr 14, 2021 20:50
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Fix 3B by picking up Bobby Witt Jr. He's been a stud in every single OOTP game I've ever played or participated in. I don't care what he costs, even if it's Kelenic. Extend everyone left after the above in order from best to worst. Maybe not Smith. We have a glut of outfielders, and giving up one, even Kelenic, to shore up our tire-fire infield is perfectly acceptable. Especially if we're making the Hayes deal, too. Like I will be really happy with where we're sitting for like five years if we make these moves. That's a solid playoff team. And with Benny coming up in that time as well...
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Apr 14, 2021 21:35
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rickiep00h posted:Fix 3B by picking up Bobby Witt Jr. Alright. So, here's the deal with BWJ. After hard negotiations with the Royals, we've reached three mutually acceptable possibilities: 1) Kelenic straight up. 2) George Kirby, Emerson Hancock (2.0/3.0, #27 overall), Taylor Trammell (2.0/3.5), and Garrett Crochet 3) Julio Rodriguez (2.5/5.0) (#12 overall) and Kirby. Witt is still the #4 overall prospect despite almost a full year in the bigs. I'd predict his peak as 25-30 HRs, a ~380 OBP, and 15-20 steals, along with GG-caliber defense at 3rd. He's already a good MLB starter, but is probably 2 years away from producing at an elite level. So, a bit more power and more steals than Hayes, but otherwise pretty comparable. We're giving up a lot for him though. This needs a solid vote: Bobby Witt Jr or Ke'Bryan Hayes. Or, neither, we're giving up too much
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Apr 14, 2021 22:01
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Take trade package 2 for BWJ, that's not so much more compared to Hayes and the potential is so high here.
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Apr 14, 2021 22:08
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I'm okay with Kelenic straight up, but whichever leaves us the most flexible in the infield. I recognize that I wouldn't mind making that deal AND Hayes, but if it's either/or, then BWJ all the way.
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Apr 14, 2021 22:14
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bewbies posted:This needs a solid vote: That's weird it doesn't seem like this bewbies posted:Alright. So, here's the deal with BWJ. After hard negotiations with the Royals, we've reached three mutually acceptable possibilities: and this bewbies posted:
have anything to make them mutually exclusive. 
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Apr 14, 2021 22:58
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IcePhoenix posted:That's weird it doesn't seem like this This is what I'm saying.
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Apr 14, 2021 23:10
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yeah i can get down with both trades for Witt and Hayes, Witt can play SS right? Then no Lindor, obviously. a COF bat should be easier to find...
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Apr 15, 2021 00:09
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Witt, Hayes, Benny infield is seriously the sort of group I lust after. I'd feel like we'd be extremely solid with that core and a rotating cast of 1B/C dudes I think we can compete for a while before the budget gets too out of hand.
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Apr 15, 2021 00:26
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Well, from where I sit...if we're going for both these guys, we don't really need JP Crawford anymore. By eating his $3.1m salary (the Pirates "dont have the money" lol), we were able to pull off: Ke'Bryan Hayes and 1B Luken Baker (1.5/2.5), solid looking bat-only 1B/DH) for Garret Crochet, JP Crawford (100% retained), Sam Travis, and 0.5 star reliever Tim Elliot. We then sent Jarred Kelenic and SP Brandon Williamson (0.5/1.5) to the Royals for Bobby Witt Jr., RF Seuly Matias (1.0/2.5), SP Austin Cox (1.5/2.5), and CF Erick Pena (0.5/2.5) Matias is an intriguing guy: huge arm, potential big power. He struggled at AA, but is loaded with talent. Cox is a solid bet to mature into a 4/5 SP, and Pena is a very young but VERY talented prospect probably destined for LF in the majors.  Now, we need to decide who gets converted to SS. Witt has some experience there and has better hands, but Hayes has better range. Witt is probably the right choice: he won't be a gold glover, but he's got solid hands and a great arm and should be solidly above average. Bryant COULD be great there, but only if he gets a lucky bump to his ball handling. We also traded Tom Murphy for Dennis Santana (3.0/4.0), a young pre-arb SP/RP who will help fill in the hole left by Crochet's leaving and has an absolutely sick slider. We'll need to sign a backup catcher: we will prioritize catcher defense uber alles. bewbies fucked around with this message at 01:17 on Apr 15, 2021 |
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Apr 15, 2021 01:09
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I assume you mean Hayes when you say Bryant? Or I'm getting confused. I think Witt at SS seems like a good idea. Kim 2B, Hayes 3B. Nice infield. Still want a corner bat of some kind, any cheap FAs that can rake? What's the Joc/Pham/Schwarber end of the market look like?
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Apr 15, 2021 01:16
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KYOON GRIFFEY JR posted:I assume you mean Hayes when you say Bryant? Or I'm getting confused. No, no...I'm getting confused. Hayes to 3B, Witt to SS. But otherwise, yes. I feel like we should wait and see what Rule 5 and later free agency offers in terms of a cheap power bat at COF (we could really use a lefty, specifically). There's a good chance one or more of those guys sticks around until later in the process and signs at a discount.
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Apr 15, 2021 01:20
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Yeah, Witt to SS is the move I was assuming we'd make with the trades
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Apr 15, 2021 02:30
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Spring Training 2022 We put in offers on Kyle Schwarber and Joc Pederson. Kyle didn't like Ned Yost for some reason, and Joc signed a mildly absurd deal with the Orioles instead of us. Lindor went to the Angels, which is a tough break for us. He also signed a 4 year deal with an opt-out after year 2, which is bizarre. Arenado got 6/231 from the Cubs. The Tigers were in a huge hurry to drop Matthew Boyd (3.0/3.0) for some reason, and came at us with an offer to take him off their hands for next to nothing. So, we sent a .5/.5 prospect away and got a solid 2/3 starter in return. He's in the last year of an $8.3m deal and might be worth extending. We signed Buster Posey as our backup/platoon catcher to a nothing 1 year/1 option year deal. He's 34, still clubs lefties, and is still one of the best defensive catchers in the game. Plus, he's a well-regarded leader and a veteran presence. Players were excited by him coming on board. We got 2 of our star players extended: Tyler Mahle signed for 5/65, with a TO in the last year. Ke'Bryan Hayes signed for 8/120, with a TO in the last year. Both contracts carry through their age-32 seasons. We tried VERY hard to sign Nomar Mazara to be our lefty power bat, but Boston decided he was their guy and ended up doubling our offer. We were able to sign Hunter Renfroe to a minor league option contract, but it looks like left field will be manned by a platoon of Dylan Moore and Taylor Trammell...which, to be honest, has the potential to be pretty solid. If Trammell sucks again, we can always go after a big lefty bat there at the deadline. We did well on the Spring Training injury front: the only long-term injury to a major piece was our recent acquisition Dennis Santana, out until August with a shoulder issue. Good spring training news: Kenny Giles is back, and looks devastating. He reinforces an already-killer bullpen. Hayes, Ruiz, and BWJ all raked this spring. BWJ completed his transition to SS quite smoothly, and grades out as a plus there now. Posey and Dylan Moore had bad springs, as did Benny Rodriguez, though he's still a couple years out from being ML-ready. The one major decision we need to make this spring is on Jack Leiter. He added a tick to his fastball this winter and can now touch 100; he was outstanding in AA last year and lights out in ST this year (20 IP, 23 K, 6 BB, 1.80 ERA). He still has some growing to do -- he needs to work on his secondary stuff -- but he's probably an average-to-good ML pitcher right now. Our probable Opening Day lineup and rotation: Kim 2B Hayes 3B Witt Jr SS Rodriguez RF Smith 1B Nogowski DH Trammel LF Lewis CF Ruiz C Gonzalez Mahle Sheffield Kopech Flexen Giles (CL) De Geus Munoz Vest Knebel Delaplane Gilbert Boyd VOTE For Jack Leiter, do we: 1) Put him on the opening day roster (probably for Flexen) 2) Wait to see what he does in AAA/call him up after Super 2 day (contract fuckery!) 3) Plan on leaving him in him in the minors this season unless we seriously need an SP
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Apr 15, 2021 17:10
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Will keeping him down harm his development or make him resent us? Like, in game mechanically, and not just narratively? It seems like having some kind of "secret weapon" could be beneficial. Not just in the event of injury or someone underperforming. That gives us power if there's a missing piece we can acquire for a SP.
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Apr 15, 2021 17:54
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From what little I understand from this, it would cost us less in the future to keep him in the minor leagues, right? (i.e. he would keep longer his junior contract) If so, I would only bring him up in case we need him.
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Apr 15, 2021 17:59
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I am anti-contract fuckery. Bring him up. 
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Apr 15, 2021 18:00
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3. Our pitching is fine (great, even), and it's not like he's gonna mysteriously lose all his prowess if we stuff him at AAA this year to work on his secondary stuff some more. If we absolutely need him, fine, but he could be even more filthy next year and that can only be to our benefit.
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Apr 15, 2021 18:11
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I vote 3, We aren't going to contract gently caress, but we don't NEED him I feel, if it ends up being a NEED, then we yank, otherwise he looks like a good prospect for next year.
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Apr 15, 2021 18:14
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Keep Leiter in the minors for now. I'm generally opposed to contract fuckery but I don't see a need to immediately move him up with our pitching depth. If one of the latter starters is doing poorly to start the year maybe we move him up.
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Apr 15, 2021 18:16
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Veryslightlymad posted:Will keeping him down harm his development or make him resent us? Like, in game mechanically, and not just narratively? Like everything else with OOTP, "it depends." Usually you want to pair a guy with the highest level he can compete at, but sometimes giving someone time at a lower level can jumpstart their development by letting them work on stuff against lesser competition. OTOH, if you leave them too low for too long, they can start to stagnate. Pretty close to real life to be honest. Average Lettuce posted:From what little I understand from this, it would cost us less in the future to keep him in the minor leagues, right? (i.e. he would keep longer his junior contract) If so, I would only bring him up in case we need him. Right now he's on a minor league contract; once he's promoted, he starts his MLB service time. In GM terms, this starts the 6-year clock that dominates so much of baseball player development: once your clock starts, you have 3 years at league minimum, then 3 years of arbitration (usually, single-season contracts with gradually increasing salaries -- though nowhere near free market values). The "service time fuckery" thing relates mostly to the "Super 2" clause: if a player is among the earliest called up as his position (top 17% I think?) then they get to arbitration and eventually This was supposed to be a nice way to reward elite prospects, but it has become more of a way for teams to hold onto players and suppress their value a bit longer. Kris Bryant was one of the great early examples of this: by holding him in the minors until mid-May, the Cubs basically got an extra year of service time from him. Our own former super prospect Jarred Kelenic is a more recent example. Were this real life and I a fan, I'd think it reasonable/fair to keep Leiter down as we have legit developmental reasons to do so. We will, however, have pitching injuries this year, and if Leiter is destroying AAA as he likely will, we'll have some tough decisions to make about whether or not to start his clock early. bewbies fucked around with this message at 19:07 on Apr 15, 2021 |
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Apr 15, 2021 19:04
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I think we start Leiter in the minors because there's legitimate reasons to do so. But if he's dominating and an improvement (or someone gets hurt and he's the clear best option) then don't service time fuckery him.
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Apr 15, 2021 19:07
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Keep him down and call him up as necessary for injuries. From what I remember hot shot starters do best with a little ML experience covering for injuries for a year, and then bringing them up next year to tear poo poo up. I don't care about the Super 2 because if he is hot poo poo we should sign him up long term at a lower contract well before we get through arbitration, and if not trade him off anyway.
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Apr 15, 2021 19:45
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It sounds like we're heavily in favor of leaving Leiter down. Where do want to put Wacky Jack (that's his new nickname) on the callup priority list? We WILL suffer several catastrophic injuries to our staff this season; the main question is how quickly do we want to call him up when they happen? We have some serious other options available. Emerson Hancock (#21 overall) George Kirby (#36 overall) are both elite SP prospects who are more or less ML-ready; Wyatt Mills and Joey Gerber are both excellent RP callups. Do we only call up Wacky Jack after exhausting these options, or is he the first to go?
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Apr 15, 2021 20:50
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Also, we need nicknames for Bobby Witt Jr, Julio Rodriguez, Ha-Seong Kim, Keibert Ruiz, and Ke'Bryan Hayes. I've been using "BWJ" and "J-Rod" for the first two but those aren't very original.
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Apr 15, 2021 20:52
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