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Last month, Paul Noonan posted a series of articles arguing that a great number of NFL teams have broken through barriers previously constraining QB development. Because of this breakthrough, QB stability is now the norm for the majority of the league. The following linked articles examine this hypothesis and the changes in how coaches and GMs approach player development. I will post excerpts from each article, but I strongly recommend you read the series in full -- it should take only 10-15 minutes. Disclaimer: as Noonan is a Packers writer writing on a Packers fan site, the articles will be oriented towards a Packers perspective. Part 1. Scheme is Everything -- how coaching schemes put Patrick Mahomes, Lamar Jackson, Aaron Rodgers, and Ryan Tannehill in the best possible situations to succeed. One of the things creating quarterback scarcity is teams and coaches being unwilling to refit their systems to their players, instead hunting perpetually for the perfect player fit for their system. quote:Instead, Jackson landed in the perfect spot. The Ravens are among the most progressive organizations in the NFL, and rather than hold out for an old-school “big statue” at quarterback, they instead found an exceptional college player and tailored their offense to his talents. The Ravens run a run-based modern throwback offense, which creates easy passing opportunities for Jackson by making defenses respect his, and his teammates’ legs. Such an offense would have been unthinkable even 10 years ago, but more and more frequently, NFL coaches are looking at the college game and asking why they can’t do that. quote:While the Ravens, Packers, and 49ers excel at this, the league as a whole is catching up. Andy Reid is basically a pioneer in scheming success for quarterbacks, and it’s no surprise that Mahomes has succeeded as much as he has. Veterans on the move have also taken notice of the importance of scheme, as Philip Rivers decided to spend his final, successful season with Frank Reich in Indianapolis and Tom Brady moved to Bruce Arians’ talented and quarterback friendly Bucs. Reich is worth focusing on as he managed to coax a Super Bowl out of Carson Wentz and Nick Foles in Philadelphia before resurrecting Rivers for one more run. Reich was never considered the true guru of the offense in Philly until he left, but it’s clear now that Reich made everything work. Part 2. Tape Analysis, Focused Practice, and Coaching -- the transformation of Josh Allen. One of the things creating quarterback scarcity is players being unable to get proper coaching and targeted development to overcome their deficiencies. Allen benefited from not only having a team that believed in him, but getting specialized training that used video data to analyze his deficiencies and personal coaching focused specifically on fixing his movement and throwing mechanics. quote:Allen, who was drafted 7th overall as the third quarterback taken in the 2018 draft, is in many ways the prototypical bust. He’s a physical specimen, extremely fast, with the strongest arm the NFL has seen in years. Quarterbacks like Allen are often drafted too high based on the idea that NFL coaching can harness that raw physical ability and fix whatever mechanical and accuracy issues may exist. quote:The NFL is a pioneer in the use of video, and any scout, coach, or even fanboy wannabe looking to prove his mettle need only cite the hours of tape they grind and the use of “All-22” to put their credibility out there. NFL coaches have used tape sessions for almost as long as they’ve had film, and generally speaking, they’re quite good at it. They have also enjoyed a virtual monopoly on tape availability until recently, but that’s changing fast. The NFL is letting more out the door than ever before including their precious All-22 via the NFL Gamepass, and through the gradual publication of tape-based statistics via Next Gen Stats. We also have outside organizations like Pro Football Focus and Sports Info Solutions selling in-depth tape quantification to any fan or analyst who wants it. The Exception. A (slightly outdated, with the recent draft trades from NYJ and SF) review of the QB situation for each franchise. Noonan asserts there are 17 teams that are "set" / stable at QB, 7 teams that are actively evaluating their QBs and are likely to draft a QB this Thursday, and 8 teams that don't have any stability or future potential with their current QBs. quote:https://twitter.com/YahooSchwab/status/1371937801474740224 Part 3 & Conclusion. Drafting the Future -- how analytics and scouting missed badly on prospects from previous decades -- featuring Brian Brohm -- and how the Chargers hit on Justin Herbert despite his college performance. One of the things creating quarterback scarcity is teams drafting the wrong players because they're looking at the wrong traits and attributes. Herbert was terrible under pressure in college: quote:“Though if the clean pocket collapses, Herbert becomes increasingly volatile. Among 129 qualifying quarterbacks this season, Herbert ranked 124th in negatively graded play rate under pressure. You can see his panic in a collapsing pocket, an area where a first-round quarterback really shouldn’t be losing his poise. He’ll try to create outside of the structure but will toss up some desperation heaves and, in turn, produced the 47th best accurate-pass rate among 66 qualifying quarterbacks.” quote:“We’ve never seen a better performance from a rookie under pressure and, honestly, it’s not even close. His 75.4 passing grade under pressure was not only the highest we’ve ever seen from a rookie, it was also the highest in the entire NFL this season. Of the 30 seasons we’ve seen where a quarterback earned a 70.0-plus passing grade under pressure, only five of them came from players you wouldn’t immediately recognize as sure-fire, stud, franchise quarterbacks: Jeff Garcia (2007), Robert Griffin III (2012), Carson Palmer (2015), Jay Cutler (2015) and Marcus Mariota (2017).” Conclusion: quote:With all of that said, I wonder how wrong the analysts actually were on Justin Herbert and Josh Allen. You can measure so many traits and slice and dice so many metrics for each player, that it’s virtually impossible to have a poor scouting report on anything other than makeup. Analysts can point, over and over, to how often certain player types have failed, but teams aren’t static. Most teams, at least the sophisticated ones, likely have a good idea of exactly what they can and cannot develop. The recent focus on mobile quarterbacks reflects a larger trend in the NFL that shows more faith in a team’s ability to develop a prospect. College football has featured great athletes forever, even (especially) back into the triple option days, with the only difference that a college team never required as much development.
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Apr 26, 2021 16:49
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My first thought is that Rodgers was on the of the greatest QBs ever and the scheme never matured past "Go make a huge play Aaron." Obviously Lafleur has helped bring him back to MVP level, but let's not pretend McCarthy was an innovator when Rodgers was blowing up records for efficiency.
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Apr 26, 2021 16:57
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Paint Crop Pro posted:My first thought is that Rodgers was one the of the greatest QBs ever and the scheme never matured past "Go make a huge play Aaron." Part 1 argues exactly this -- while McCarthy may have helped fix Rodgers's throwing mechanics, he didn't do Rodgers any favors with the offensive scheme. Rodgers's best seasons under McCarthy came when he had quality WRs like in 2011 and during Nelson's prime.
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Apr 26, 2021 17:00
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I don't buy it. There have always been one or two coaches at any time in the league who can create innovative offenses with unique players. That doesn't mean that it's an approach that will be easily copied.
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Apr 26, 2021 17:20
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I honestly think its more that offenses have evolved a bunch over the past few years with presnap motions and getting more involved with how to attack the coverages that are shown. I'm guessing the defenses adjust in the next year or two and then we will have to see how new QBs react. Also Arians is not QB friendly. He gets results but his playbook is famously a pain in the rear end to learn and adopt. Its pedantic but I will die that hill. Paint Crop Pro fucked around with this message at 17:35 on Apr 26, 2021 |
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Apr 26, 2021 17:27
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Impossibly Perfect Sphere posted:I don't buy it. Yeah, actually great coaching is even rarer historically than traditional good QB prospects.
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Apr 26, 2021 17:32
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Herbie
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Apr 26, 2021 17:32
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Impossibly Perfect Sphere posted:I don't buy it. See, this is actually the opposite of what this series is arguing. What happened with Josh Allen and Justin Herbert wasn't hyperinnovative coaching and scheming, it's just teams going "OK, we know what's wrong and how to fix this, now run these plays and you'll be good enough to be our franchise QB." Sean McDermott is a solid coach but he's not Andy Reid, and Herbert's coach... was fired.
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Apr 26, 2021 17:39
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SKULL.GIF posted:See, this is actually the opposite of what this series is arguing. What happened with Josh Allen and Justin Herbert wasn't hyperinnovative coaching and scheming, it's just teams going "OK, we know what's wrong and how to fix this, now run these plays and you'll be good enough to be our franchise QB." Sean McDermott is a solid coach but he's not Andy Reid, and Herbert's coach... was fired. Herbert's coach hated him and wanted to start Tyrod the entire year
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Apr 26, 2021 18:05
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kirk cousins
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Apr 26, 2021 18:42
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a neat cape posted:Herbie That's right
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Apr 26, 2021 18:58
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Bears fan involuntarily convulsing at seeing the thread title
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Apr 26, 2021 19:01
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Chucktesla posted:That's right  The hair is back boys
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Apr 26, 2021 20:43
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a neat cape posted:
Your AV is still probably top 5 ever on SA.
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Apr 26, 2021 21:00
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quarterback scarcity is still a big deal and justin herbert is a top 5 qb and he's going to be #1 and joe burrow will be a little bit good as well
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Apr 26, 2021 21:18
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a neat cape posted:Herbert's coach hated him and wanted to start Tyrod the entire year The curse of being Tyrod. Coach hates the rookie and plays Tyrod till he dies then rookie goes off
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Apr 26, 2021 21:41
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Regarding Justin Herbert, I don't know how a prospect goes from having all these red flags like how bad he was in the short game and under pressure, issues seeing the whole field, inconsistency with accuracy, all that poo poo to having none of those be big issues in his first start and effectively gone from his game by the end of the season. Scheme can only do so much there.
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Apr 27, 2021 00:03
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Chucktesla posted:Regarding Justin Herbert, I don't know how a prospect goes from having all these red flags like how bad he was in the short game and under pressure, issues seeing the whole field, inconsistency with accuracy, all that poo poo to having none of those be big issues in his first start and effectively gone from his game by the end of the season. Scheme can only do so much there. Cristobal sucks big rear end
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Apr 27, 2021 00:28
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If quarterbacks aren't so scarce then how come I have never seen team have a good one in my lifetime.
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Apr 27, 2021 00:30
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R.D. Mangles posted:If quarterbacks aren't so scarce then how come I have never seen team have a good one in my lifetime. NFC
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Apr 27, 2021 00:34
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R.D. Mangles posted:If quarterbacks aren't so scarce then how come I have never seen team have a good one in my lifetime. Actually, you've had perfectly fine QBs this whole time but Bears fans are so PRIVILEGED that your wants greatly exceed your needs, therefore..
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Apr 27, 2021 00:36
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Here's the best Herbert thing https://theathletic.com/2314895/2021/01/13/justin-herbert-chargers-nfl-records?source=user-shared-article quote:After a particularly impressive throw, Beck said he and Dedeaux would put it into proper context. he didn't know he was that good throwing the football
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Apr 27, 2021 00:53
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a neat cape posted:Cristobal sucks big rear end Tyler Shough is going to have a ten year NFL career
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Apr 27, 2021 00:55
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R.D. Mangles posted:If quarterbacks aren't so scarce then how come I have never seen team have a good one in my lifetime. The title is "Quarterback scarcity is over", not "Quarterbacks have never been scarce". Unfortunately for Bears fans, the Bears organization spent the last 4 seasons deliberately and stubbornly tethered to a QB they drafted highly because he looked like a QB instead of drafting a QB because he played like a QB. That sort of outdated organizational outlook does not lend itself to the holistic approach that's becoming the norm across the league. Perhaps Trubisky could be fixed -- but then again, a team capable of fixing Trubisky in the way described in the articles would be the type of team to draft Mahomes or W*tson over Trubisky.
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Apr 27, 2021 01:02
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imagining a future where there are 32-35 brady-caliber QBs in the NFL and none are on the bears
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Apr 27, 2021 01:43
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I kind of take issue with the premise that Quarterback Scarcity is Over when he admits that barely more than half the teams are "set" at QB
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Apr 27, 2021 01:51
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R.D. Mangles posted:If quarterbacks aren't so scarce then how come I have never seen team have a good one in my lifetime. The Sex Cannon brought you to the Super Bowl.
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Apr 27, 2021 02:09
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If they managed to learn how to teach people how to play qb(a premise I basically agree with) then the scarcity will just go to finding the most ridiculously toolsy guys and people in the future will complain there aren't enough guys out there who are 6'5 260, run a 4.4 and throw through a brick wall, which you now need to compete for a title
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Apr 27, 2021 03:07
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Impossibly Perfect Sphere posted:I don't buy it. Yeah, basically good coaching can ameliorate some of the scarcity issues at QB... but then that kind of coaching is scarce in itself. I think you're going to see that very shortly with the McVay/Shanahan stuff, they've both seen the writing on their wall in re: to their ability to sustainably compete with middling talent at QB, and all these teams who are trying to jump on that bandwagon are to get diminishing returns with worse coaching, defensive adjustment, and more teams in the market for some of those relatively scarce resources to make the whole deal work.
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Apr 27, 2021 04:08
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indigi posted:I kind of take issue with the premise that Quarterback Scarcity is Over when he admits that barely more than half the teams are "set" at QB Let's see... this is my own sorting, not Noonan's. Stable: BUF, PIT/BAL/CLE/CIN, TEN, KC/LV/LAC, NYG/DAL, GB/MIN, TB/ATL, SEA/LAR/ARZ (18) Drafting highly: NYJ, JAX, SF, DEN (4) Transitional or evaluating: MIA, IND, PHI, DET (4) Unstable: NE, HOU, WAS, CHI, NO, CAR (6) Of the "Stable" group Pittsburgh, Tampa, and Atlanta are the most likely to go unstable soon (due to QB age/retirement) but everyone else has at least a few more seasons remaining. I'd say at least half of the high-drafters are going to be stable once their rookies are settled, and probably about the same proportion for Group 3. Of the final group, their biggest issue is that they have no real plan for what comes next, but about half of these teams are run by competent coaches who will be able to develop whatever they get their hands onto. Carolina and New England are also in a position to grab anyone who might fall out of the top 4 in the draft. So we're looking at about 18 to 24 teams, conservatively, who will be in a stable position with their quarterbacks over the next 12 months.
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Apr 27, 2021 14:56
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lol if u think all of those "stable" teams are happy with who they have under center
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Apr 27, 2021 15:05
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Pittsburgh - Ben will probably die mid season Cleveland - Is Baker good enough to warrant another contract? Cincinnati - Burrow hasn't proved squat LV - One day Gruden is in love with Carr and the next it sounds like he'd trade him for a ham sandwich NYG - In serious denial about their QB situation Min - Kirk Cousins is good until he has to be TB - Their QB is a million years old ATL - They need to trade Ryan, clean house and rebuild but can't afford to Also about midway thru every season it always becomes obvious to everyone that a significant portion of the teams we thought were "set" at QB are very much not!
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Apr 27, 2021 15:56
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Impossibly Perfect Sphere posted:Cleveland - Is Baker good enough to warrant another contract? It'll be really funny if the browns draft the best quarterback the franchise has had since it restarted and then do the Kirk Cousins dance because he didn't want to sign with them for $20 million a year
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Apr 27, 2021 17:22
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Chucktesla posted:Regarding Justin Herbert, I don't know how a prospect goes from having all these red flags like how bad he was in the short game and under pressure, issues seeing the whole field, inconsistency with accuracy, all that poo poo to having none of those be big issues in his first start and effectively gone from his game by the end of the season. Scheme can only do so much there. Having Keenan Allen helps a lot.
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Apr 27, 2021 18:14
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Chucktesla posted:It'll be really funny if the browns draft the best quarterback the franchise has had since it restarted and then do the Kirk Cousins dance because he didn't want to sign with them for $20 million a year Cousins might be better than Baker
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Apr 27, 2021 19:23
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Impossibly Perfect Sphere posted:Cincinnati - Burrow hasn't proved squat The rest are good, but these 3 I dunno. I'd call them "set." Burrow and Jones are going to be run out there a few more years at very least and Brady is going to play for 5 more seasons or so. I think in the NFL if you get a guy you can start for at least 3 years, that's pretty stable right?
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Apr 28, 2021 15:07
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Impossibly Perfect Sphere posted:Pittsburgh - Ben will probably die mid season Everyone in the NFC West thread was very sure Jared Goff and Jimmy G were going to be around for a long time at the start of this season and the Rams paid Goff 25 million to leave and Shanahan is going to murder Jimmy G by Thursday.
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Apr 28, 2021 15:36
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Athanatos posted:The rest are good, but these 3 I dunno. I'd call them "set." Burrow and Jones are going to be run out there a few more years at very least and Brady is going to play for 5 more seasons or so. I wouldn't bet on Jones getting another season as unquestioned starter.
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Apr 28, 2021 15:44
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Athanatos posted:I think in the NFL if you get a guy you can start for at least 3 years, that's pretty stable right? Worked for the Giants and Baltimore even though there were probably a dozen QBs better than Flacco and Eli. Clearly they would've liked to upgrade if they were able, but if you get someone above the Dalton line locked down it's probably better to focus on the rest of the team instead of continuing to reroll at QB. Especially nowadays with targeted training and analysis being so much better.
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Apr 28, 2021 15:55
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Athanatos posted:The rest are good, but these 3 I dunno. I'd call them "set." Burrow and Jones are going to be run out there a few more years at very least and Brady is going to play for 5 more seasons or so. Burrow's grade last season is INC. He certainly hasn't proven that he's an NFL franchise QB and that the Bengals are set for the future and now he's a year older and coming off a serious injury. Jones is a joke. The Giants are the only team in the NFL that would still be running him out there again because they're too stubborn/proud, or whatever you want to call it, to admit he's a failure. And yet, I think most observers would agree if Jones puts up another one of his typical seasons even the Giants FO will be forced to recognize that drafting him was a mistake and move on. Hardly set at that position. They're basically waiting for him to fail so they can move on. Brady is one unlucky sprain away from being done forever. That's how all these old QB's go out; they get a nagging lower body or shoulder injury and that's the end. When you're as old as he is - regardless of your health regime - you do not recover fast enough to maintain your football shape.
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Apr 28, 2021 18:44
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