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Edward Mass
Sep 14, 2011

𝅘𝅥𝅮 I wanna go home with the armadillo
Good country music from Amarillo and Abilene
Friendliest people and the prettiest women you've ever seen
𝅘𝅥𝅮
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BAIlVCStp3c&t=4s

Horse racing is the sport of kings (as opposed to greyhound racing, the sport of dirtbags). With the Kentucky Derby being run tomorrow, I thought a split-off thread was warranted.

There are several kinds of ways to race horses, but flat track is without a doubt the one you think of when you first think of horse racing. I could explain all the basics right here, but I'd just be regurgitating Wikipedia.

The big story this year is Essential Quality, which is owned by Mohammad bin Rashid Al Maktoum, Prime Minister of the UAE. The horse is a 2-1 favorite to win, while the owner is accused of kidnapping his daughter. MbR also was suspended in 2013 for eight years from racing in the UK due to horse doping. So, you know, problems.

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Strong Sauce
Jul 2, 2003

You know I am not really your father.





About 13 years ago I thumbed through a copy of my coworkers, "Horse Betting for Dummies" or whatever it was called and there was a part where they talked about going to the racetrack and looking at the horses before the races start because you'd be able to figure out if any of them were sick or injured. I didn't get very far in that book but how does analytics play now in horse racing? Is there any skill to be had in horse racing or is it mostly buying a ticket and then ripping it up when you realize your horse didn't win?

Edward Mass
Sep 14, 2011

𝅘𝅥𝅮 I wanna go home with the armadillo
Good country music from Amarillo and Abilene
Friendliest people and the prettiest women you've ever seen
𝅘𝅥𝅮
Oddsmakers MAY use analytics, but there's no guarantee.

I always feel more comfortable betting on horses when I'm actually at a track as opposed to an OTB. I think you need to be able to look at the track and horse in person to make an educated bet. There's a quote I made hanging up in my parents' house - "Always bet on the horse that's smiling".

Virgil Thatcher
Mar 3, 2008
Hit the win and exacta at Churchill Race 5 today, couldn't get the rest to the wire for the life of me.

Tuned in to one race at Arlington, John Dooley doesn't sound excited at all, that poo poo is depressing and I'm going to miss the place once they bulldoze it for overpriced condos

Youth Decay
Aug 18, 2015

oh hey it's the thread I said I was going to make a while ago and then totally forgot about

Steeplechasing is the best racing but the worst betting. Harness racing is awesome and I wish it were more popular since it is more working-class and there aren't any Dubai sheikhs or old money families involved. Fewer injuries to the horses too, they can run more often and just seem happier in general than their neurotic Thoroughbred counterparts.

Am rooting for Brooklyn Strong because he is a gelding and will actually be running for more than a handful more races after this one. This feels like a year when a long shot is going to win though.

Strong Sauce posted:

About 13 years ago I thumbed through a copy of my coworkers, "Horse Betting for Dummies" or whatever it was called and there was a part where they talked about going to the racetrack and looking at the horses before the races start because you'd be able to figure out if any of them were sick or injured. I didn't get very far in that book but how does analytics play now in horse racing? Is there any skill to be had in horse racing or is it mostly buying a ticket and then ripping it up when you realize your horse didn't win?
Yeah there is a lot of skill involved in horse race handicapping. It's the oldest form of sports betting , there's a couple hundred years worth of literature on how to pick horses. A lot of it is analytics, some of it is getting to know the bias of different tracks, levels of competition, jockey and trainer combinations, changes like adding blinkers or lasix, etc. Going to the track early isn't going to help anything though since the horses stay in their stalls until it's time to saddle up, but I would recommend looking at them in the post parade before placing bets - this is more important with young horses making their first or second starts since some of them get really nervous on the track with all the people and horses around. That said you can just buy a copy of the DRF and make your bets off the past performances alone and you'd do fine. Just stay away from exotic (trifecta, pick six, daily double, etc) or futures bets and stick to betting one horse to win.

Youth Decay fucked around with this message at 05:46 on May 1, 2021

Mrenda
Mar 14, 2012
I'm a big fan of racing, but I could never get into the flat. There's just not enough happening for me. There's no real test of the jockey's riding skill or the horse's abillity, it's all about strategic stuff during the race, although there are definitely riders who can get more out of a horse through time and relationships than other jockeys.

Jumps racing for me has just the right amount of variables. The horses have to have a skill other than "going fast" and a horse that's faster might not beat out a horse that can put less strain on its stamina with sounder jumping (or even strain its own confidence by jumping poorly and running badly after that.)

There's two main types of jumping, hurdles and chases. Hurdles are over smaller jumps, that the horse can take at a faster pace. Chasing is over much larger jumps, sometimes five feet high and more, and there's often more chasing fences in a race than there would be hurdles. Jumps racing is generally run between a distance from two miles to three miles, so they're a lot more of both stamina and ability tests than flat racing. They're also run over softer ground, generally, to save to the horses from the impact on really hard ground. This all adds to up to even more testing races. Some races, especially the "Nationals" "(Grand National being the most famous, but there's Irish and Scottish nationals, and Welsh, and then there's regional nationals, etc.) can be run anywhere from three miles five furlongs up to almost four and a half miles. The final kind of jumps racing are what's known as National Hunt Flat Races (aka Bumpers in Ireland.) The National Hunt is the official name for jumps racing in Ireland and the UK, presumably because they came out of people going over farm land and the original steeplechases (from church steeple to church steeple of two different villages.) National Hunt Flat Races are without jumps but on the same course as the jumps races. So you'll have the same kind of ground, no starting gates, and they're to give young horses experience of racing without challenging them in the setting too much.

Jumps racing is traditionally a winter sport, with the UK season ending last week, and the Irish season literally ending today, May 1st. This goes back to the ground necessary for the horses to run on. Ireland will have some amount of jumps racing over a summer, as we get that little bit more rain for suitable ground, but the horses running will be the ones that found themselves more suited to drier, faster ground and aren't the ones that'll be making a big name for themselves at the end of the next season at the likes of Cheltenham. The "real" season has no official start date, because everything is based on a full year so from tomorrow everything counts for the full season's stats, but you'll see the best horses racing again come October.

There's also different categories you can get sorted into, to better place similar ability horses against each other. Handicaps are the most recognisable type of race, I guess. This is where an official will calculate the horse's theoretical ability based on past runs and give them a rating. Handicap races will be for horses between or just above certain ratings and the top rated horse will carry the most weight (weight of jockey, plus saddle, plus lead they carry in saddle bag type things) while the horse with the least rated ability will carry the lowest weight. In certain races mares carry less weight than male horses, this is both an ability thing to equalise the sexes and also to encourage mares to race rather than be put straight into breeding. In a straight race, with no allowances, the best mares can absolutely beat the best male horses. Maiden races are for horses that have never won a race "under rules." Novice races are for horses that had their first win in the previous season. Then you have races where everyone will carry the same weight, and there's no restrictions, which may be the most prestigious of races (and are often the highest tier of "graded races." But not always.)

Like I said, today is the last day of the "official" season in Ireland, so Champion Trainers/Jockeys, etc. will be decided based on today. And then it'll all be reset for the next championship from tomorrow (plus the jockeys will get a holiday with no jumps racing for a few weeks in June.)

I have a few bets on today, in day five of the Punchestown festival. I'm an overall loser when it comes to betting on jumps racing, but I really bet minimal amounts. I do it just as a test of my own ability and a way to put my money where my mouth is. The way the bookies are run in the UK and Ireland, you'll find if you make money from horse racing you'll lose the bonuses the bookies offer to you (money back on certain outcomes, and best odds guaranteed) and if you still win the bookies will just outright ban you and you won't be able to get a bet on anywhere. However, if you lose thousands and thousands, you'll find the bookies are flying you out to big festivals, giving you free meals and drinks in the marquee they've booked, and encouraging you to bet even more.

Anyway, my bets for today, at Punchestown, Ireland (all jumps racing.) I'm up overall for the festival so it's a good outcome for me regardless, and like I said I bet for fun and minimal amounts. If you can watch the races anywhere it might give you a horse to follow. You might be able to get a video of the race afterwards on the Racing Post (all the stats and form for UK and Irish horses and races coming up, along with results) and a lot of bookies let you watch a race live if you've a bet on it, some even do it with no bet to encourage people to watch.

Punchestown
2.15 Josies Orders 8/1 ew 4 places
2.50 Young Dev 9/1 ew 4 places
3.20 Minella Melody 16/1 ew 3 places
4.00 Jeff Kidder 20/1 ew 3 places
4.30 Fag An Bealach 7/1
5.05 Lady Breffni 10/1 ew 4 places
5.40 Rebel Early 18/1 ew 4 places

Edward Mass
Sep 14, 2011

𝅘𝅥𝅮 I wanna go home with the armadillo
Good country music from Amarillo and Abilene
Friendliest people and the prettiest women you've ever seen
𝅘𝅥𝅮
Essential Quality doesn't even Show. MAJOR upset.

Strong Sauce
Jul 2, 2003

You know I am not really your father.





i totally forgot i read about bill benter being a billionaire by beating the hong kong horse racing circuit. but also... how the gently caress do you extract a billion dollars out of HK horse racing and no one does anything???

also: https://twitter.com/SteveKornacki/status/1388630275165466625

Doccykins
Feb 21, 2006
As Mrenda said the racing season in UK/IRE has just about finished but if there are any good global meets going on I'm here for them. I bet for entertainment and am massively missing being able to go to the races with friends, wager about a hundred over the course of the day and if I come out ahead I'm a happy lad (happier if I also cover my bar tab with winnings!) Since the pandemic I'm only dropping a quid or two here or there to keep me interested in who's doing well from a jockey/trainer perspective. Had a good National though :)

shame on an IGA
Apr 8, 2005

https://wpde.com/news/nation-world/kentucky-derby-winner-faces-disqualification-track-bans-trainer-bob-baffert

Tetramin
Apr 1, 2006

I'ma buck you up.

Lol there was a clip of the guy who owns that horse on Fox News yesterday going around. He blames cancel culture

Baddog
May 12, 2001
So is everyone who bet on the runnerup gonna go dig their tickets out of the trash and sue?

Is there a period in the betting conditions after which the results are final? Or a clause that you are betting on the race as it is run, not any condition that might overturn results later?

shame on an IGA
Apr 8, 2005

Once they pay out the iron rule is FYGM

Edward Mass
Sep 14, 2011

𝅘𝅥𝅮 I wanna go home with the armadillo
Good country music from Amarillo and Abilene
Friendliest people and the prettiest women you've ever seen
𝅘𝅥𝅮

Baddog posted:

So is everyone who bet on the runnerup gonna go dig their tickets out of the trash and sue?

Is there a period in the betting conditions after which the results are final? Or a clause that you are betting on the race as it is run, not any condition that might overturn results later?

Once results are Official, they're official. There's a reason why racing of all sorts has "Unofficial Results" immediately following a race. Take a look at the 2019 Kentucky Derby - Maximum Security was the winner in the Unofficial Results, but got DQ'd at the track, so Country House won in the Official Results.

e: Medina Spirit has been cleared to run the Preakness, so that'll get people talking.

RoastBeef
Jul 11, 2008


And it's Rombauer, at a respectable 11-1. Churchill Downs just unchlenched.

e. also

Never post a barcode if you care about cashing the ticket.

Doccykins
Feb 21, 2006
Hollie Doyle saved me in the last at Ascot yesterday, much prefer hurdle racing to flat but nice to see punters in the stands again

Today's definitely not tips don't listen to me you will lose all your money

14.30 #21 White Jasmine @ 40/1 - Riding the Hollie Doyle hot hand, not expecting much but an EW return paying 7 places would do. #19 Twilight Gleaming is the bookies' fave
15.05 #12 Stowell @ 7/1 - Frankie Dettori riding and the horse has won here before, could beat out #3 Dancing King and #14 Wordsworth who have shorter odds atm
15.40 #2 Lady Bowthorpe @ 3/1 - Bookies' favourite here, no reason to shop around that I can see. If Hollie Doyle places on White Jasmine will have a flutter on her here as well riding #11 Parent's Prayer (currently 10/1)
16.20 #1 Armory @ 5/2 - #7 Love is the horse to beat but a pony at evens to win is boring - I'm only punting on Armory as I'm taking advantage of a money back promotion for placing 2/3
17.00 #16 Finest Sound @ 11/1 - Beaten by #19 Astro King by a shoulder at Nottingham in April but the latter has a different jockey and Andrea Atzeni is riding Finest Sound again. Could be in the mix, worth an E/W with 8 places paying
17.35 #28 Ruthin @ 2/1 - Heavily tipped Dettori ride again, if you want something more interesting Hollie Doyle's riding #6 Barging Thru who she's won on before at this distance, currently going for 33/1
18.10 #1 Lights On @ 15/2 - Won last 2, one at Ascot and one at this distance in Nottingham with Ryan Moore riding, bookies like a few ahead of him and if Frankie Dettori is on a winning day then #8 Mostly will be the favourite by post

Note yesterday I went 1 for 7 but ended up ahead because of the 7th :D

Doccykins fucked around with this message at 13:08 on Jun 16, 2021

Doccykins
Feb 21, 2006
Today's lesson appears to be only bet on horses Hollie Doyle rides in the last race of the day. Let's try again tomorrow!

Doccykins
Feb 21, 2006
You might as well throw darts at a board to pick horses as well as I do but here's where I'm throwing money away today

14.30 #14 Second Wind @ 11/1 - Not gonna lie this is literally only because he's won 2 races instead of 1 like most of the others (only other winner is #11 Navello with 3 wins but a Beaten Favourite in his last run), money back on a 2/3/4 placing
15.05 #3 Mohaafeth @ 7/4 - Just needs to beat #4 Movin Time but otherwise heavily tipped, won last 3. Nice Each Way opportunity on #8 Secret Protector at 20/1 for top 4
15.40 #7 Gloria Mundi @ 15/2 - Dettori ride, who he has won on before unlike the three more favoured
16.15 #5 Trueshan @ 9/2 - All the media and money is on #4 Stradivarius and Frankie Dettori but over the 2m4f distance I think the 50yo bloke on the 50yo equivalent horse may tire before the end. Would be nice to see a female winner of the Gold Cup to go along with the National
17.00 #10 Aerion Power @ 14/1 - Won last three, if you want to have a flutter on a long shot anywhere today make it this race as the bookies' profits are going to charity
17.35 #16 Sure Fire @ 5/1 - New jockey Hector Crouch taking a 6lb exception in a handicap race with a horse that won his last as Joint Favourite 10 days ago. The other lighter ride is #18 Soapy Stevens at 16/1 who could come top 6 over the 1m4f I am an idiot, read what is actually a penalty as an exception. E2 still won though :D
18.10 #18 Boardman @ 15/2 - Won his last three, one of which with David Allan aboard. Needs to beat out #16 Aldaary who has had a few wins but is wearing a tonguepiece for the first time today

Doccykins fucked around with this message at 17:42 on Jun 17, 2021

Doccykins
Feb 21, 2006
Two wins, a load of dross and a lucky place on the grey Princess Zoe at 33/1 after Trueshan withdrew. Still ahead thanks to Surefire

Doccykins
Feb 21, 2006
Loads of rain overnight so the going has changed from good-to-firm to soft (and could get worse) which means a lot of horses that were shorter odds yesterday could struggle and longer chances with wins on soft ground might be overpriced. Hopefully there won't be too much more rain

14.30 #5 Eve Lodge @ 7/1 - Won in soft conditions, needs to beat out #6 Flotus and Frankie Dettori, money back for 2/3/4
15.05 #2 Alenquer @ 2/1 - Overwhelmingly tipped, again has won in soft conditions before, bookies' favourite
15.40 #1 A Case of You @ 10/1 - Odds have been freefalling since the weather closed in, would be a great EW if he drifts again before the off
16.20 #2 Empress Josephine @ 11/2 - Won before on distance with Seamie Heffernan aboard, only non place was on Good ground, much better on Soft to Heavy turf
17.00 #16 Teodolena @ 14/1 - Won at Ascot at this distance with Sean Levey at 18/1 in May, could well do similar, EW placing top 6
17.35 #13 Quickthorn @ 9/2 - Really trying to find something I like further down the pack but the favourite's the favourite for a reason. Maybe Hollie Doyle on #8 Scarlett Dragon if he drifts but 10/1 and unproven since this race last year (at 33/1) doesn't fill me with confidence
18.10 #16 Dream Composer @ 8/1 - Won last two and has a few tips, come down from 12/1 since last night

As always I have no idea what I'm doing!

Doccykins
Feb 21, 2006
Two wins (both the favourites) and a place today but made a couple of silly gut flyers and am a little down on the day, still up on the week. Last one tomorrow, hopefully the turf will dry out a bit overnight

Doccykins
Feb 21, 2006
Last day of Ascot today, let's see what the :horse: gods have in store. Rain stopped overnight and going is reported as soft rather than heavy which will hopefully continue through the day

14.30 #2 Masekela @ 9/2 - Oisin Murphy is on a roll despite some controversy through the meet, think he'll push a horse that's won on soft to open the gap between him and Frankie Dettori (money back on 2/3)
15.05 #7 Khartoum @ 9/1 - Only back of field came on Good to Firm ground, has done nothing but win on soft turf
15.40 #6 Ilaraab @ 4/1 - Won last 5 (only raced 1 this year but with Tom Marquand aboard), favourite #2 Broome has been beaten before
16.20 #2 Dream of Dreams @ 11/4 - Heavily tipped, trained by Sir Michael Stoute, has won at the distance on soft ground. Keeping an eye on #5 Glen Shiel for an EW if he lengthens from 13/2
17.00 #14 Pendleton @ 17/2 - Needs to beat out the Queen's nag #15 King's Lynn who is favourite and #4 Rohaan who has won this race before but both other horses won in firmer conditions
17.25 #6 Alfaadhel @ 6/1 - Won last two, both with Jim Crowley riding, could look down the card for a flyer here
18.10 #4 Stag Horn @ 9/2 - Only beaten on firm ground in last 5, Hollie Doyle riding in the last race of the meet

Happy Weekend!

Mrenda
Mar 14, 2012
I was given a free bet for Ascot today, just the one, but it's more than I'd normally bet so woohoo if it wins, and who cares if I lose.

3.05 Fast Raaj 22/1 ew 4 places

It's drifted in a big ol' swoop over night, opened at 12/1, went to 20/1 this morning, sitting at 22/1 now. I normally wouldn't back horses that raced on all weather surfaces instead of turf, but he has had one second in a maiden for unraced horses on heavy ground and a first on good turf. I know France's prize money can be a bit deceiving, seeing as it's higher in general so the bigger prize wins shouldn't mean as much. Still, this is my "dark horse" from the four or five races I looked at, and that's what I feel I gotta go with when I have a free bet.

Mrenda
Mar 14, 2012
dead last

Doccykins
Feb 21, 2006
Haha having a mare so far here too, even the bloody Queen has at least had one placed

Doccykins
Feb 21, 2006
Single winner with Dream of Dreams, placed with Glen Shiel and a flyer on Above coming in 7th at 66/1 means I'm even on the day and up for the week (though should have quit whilst I was ahead after day 1!) Great to see people in the stands again, hope to be back at the races myself before too long :)

Head Bee Guy
Jun 12, 2011

Retarded for Busting
Grimey Drawer

Mrenda posted:

dead last

lol

Edward Mass
Sep 14, 2011

𝅘𝅥𝅮 I wanna go home with the armadillo
Good country music from Amarillo and Abilene
Friendliest people and the prettiest women you've ever seen
𝅘𝅥𝅮
https://mobile.twitter.com/AP/status/1415429340733526025

Apparently, they didn’t give Baffert a chance to state his case, flimsy as it might have been.

AHH F/UGH
May 25, 2002

I'm no expert but I've known some bookies in my time and I *adore* this YouTube profile about Bill Benter because I'm a big fan of statistical modeling being used in sports like Moneyball, etc.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=efBG1YfuNhg

Mrenda
Mar 14, 2012
I bet on some flat racing yesterday. Normally I hate the flat. It stinks of too much money, what with the Queen of England driving down, in a procession, the centre of Ascot before it all kicks off. And being expected to wear a fancy dress and fancy hat just to watch some horses run around. Even more, to me it feels like there's not enough at risk during the race. The draw in the stalls is a big confounding factor, but once the race goes, especially in sprints, it seems from an uneducated eye that there's no real tests of skill like in jumps racing.

That being said, I enjoyed the flat racing yesterday. That could be because I came out a winner at the end of the day. It finally felt like there was some sense to it ovMy minimum stake the bookie would take, €5 or so, along with my individual bets meant my account is looking a bit healthier. Even without the best-odds-guarantee I might have made something like 10c on the day, which is a "win" in my book. A day's excitement for no cost.

Today it's back to jumps racing. And after a good day yesterday I'm not sure what I can expect.

All in all, I just love horse racing (and gambling.) I'm not looking to be billy big balls gambling my paycheque for the chance of a free holiday all paid for. I just want a day of good fun. Horse racing is perfect for that.

Mrenda
Mar 14, 2012
I think I'm going to have to reconsider my views on flat racing. This is partly because I'm doing well with my flat betting, and absolutely useless with my jumps. Even if it is flat season, and the jumps season isn't really going yet, with mostly useless horses running, my edge this summer has all been with flat racing, and my opinion is coming around on it.

Previously I thought there was no real confounding factors with flat racing. Horses just go, and the best horse wins. This is still partly true but my opinion has changed because I'm noticing some of the nuances to it. Ground, as ever, is a big factor. A change in ground to suit a horse can absolutely bring it way, way up in the grading I give its chances in a race. I think most of money has come from this, horses being handicapped lower after running on ground that doesn't suit. This doesn't apply to the "best" horses, which can often run on most ground, but for a €15k race on a random Tuesday it can be a big factor. Other factors include the horse's experience, with young horses running it's entirely possible they're learning faster, spotting a horse on an upward trend is a big element of it, including with jockey bookings and who's likely to get the most out of it. Jockey books are another factor, their agents want them riding winners, so putting the best jockey on a horse, and them agreeing to sit on it is something to note. Similarly trainers' adherence to a particular type of race, horse, etc. is something to consider.

With jumps racing there's far more variables, for me at least. And at this time of the year, earlier in the season, inside knowledge plays a big factor. Being able to ring up a groom or a work rider and get the skinny. Flat, in the height of its season, the factors are all out in the open, or as open as they'll ever be, and there's a lot of possibilities to take the information and give yourself an edge if you're reading all the form correctly. I'm really enjoying combining them all together to piece together the puzzle, even if I don't have a bet on a race, even if it's only in my notes to watch and update my knowledge/understanding. Being positive on ROI is a nice element as well.

Doccykins
Feb 21, 2006
I've been getting great results betting EW on Hollie Doyle's rides when she's on an outsider

Doccykins
Feb 21, 2006

Doccykins posted:

I've been getting great results betting EW on Hollie Doyle's rides when she's on an outsider


Could be one here today, 18.30 at Kempton #7 Sherbobalob, up to 33/1 good for a quid E/W, last result 2nd of 4 with Hollie on board August 12th at 14/1 over same distance on good ground (poly track today)

Doccykins
Feb 21, 2006
Not this time but not often you get a faller on the flat!

Virgil Thatcher
Mar 3, 2008
Heading to Arlington for the last time and it feels like I'm on the way to a drat funeral

Doccykins
Feb 21, 2006
It's Cheltenham week! :horse: Let's see how much money I can lose on my ill informed betting

13.30 #4 Jonbon @ 9/2 - The favourite here has been alternating between #2 Constitution Hill and #3 Dysart Dynamo but I've gone for Jonbon on his wins being at slightly firmer good-to-soft tracks and getting a free bet for the first race of the day
14.10 #4 Edwardstone @ 11/4 - I've been stanning for Tom Cannon for ages but it finally looks like the market is with me. First Rachael Blackmore ride is here with #3 Coeur Sublime and could be good for an EW flutter @ 14/1
14.50 #11 Fantastikas @ 14/1 - There's a lot of mid market talent and any of the 12-14/1 set could get in on an Each Way; bookies like #6 Floueur as the newbie jockey Jordan Gainford has a 3lb claim in a handicap race - am not so sure
15.30 #10 Honeysuckle @ 8/11 - Rachael Blackmore as odds on favourite here, there might also be some value down the pack and I put a cheeky EW on #7 Tommy's Oscar when he was 33/1
16.10 #10 Stormy Ireland @ 5/1 - Another Blackmore ride #11 Tellmesomethinggirl leading the market @ 4/1 but the Willie Mullins trained Stormy Ireland has a better track record and there might be a large amount of punter money backing all the Blackmore rides
16.50 #19 Too Friendly @ 22/1 - More cheeky value here as an EW - Think Dan and Harry Skelton have something here and this could be a good one to watch from the stable that brought me a decent rake with Blaklion in last year's National as a long shot
17.30 #6 Stattler @ 11/4 - A rookie event so going with what I know in Patrick Mullins

Doccykins
Feb 21, 2006
3 wins, 2 placed, up 10u. Good start :)

13.30 #6 Sir Gerhard @ - 8/11 - Odds on favourite, may be some EW value in #7 Stage Star at 9/1
14.10 #3 Bravemansgame @ 11/4 - #9 L'Homme Presse is the closest on the market but Charlie Deutsch took a tumble yesterday and he's only won at shorter distance
14.50 #15 Unexpected Party @ 12/1 - Another Dan and Harry Skelton combo worthy of an EW, Too Friendly was a nice earner coming in at a long place yesterday - SkyBet paying 8 places here
15.30 #2 Energumene @ 10/3 - Last year this was a tight contest between Energumene and #7 Shishkin who won and is favourite today, personally already invested here in a double @ 20/1 with Edwardstone who came in yesterday
16.10 #12 Prengarde @ 15/2 - Despite a poor showing in his last race, it was only over 2 miles whereas this is the best part of 3 and a half. The favourite #15 Tiger Roll is getting on a bit at 12 years old imo so plenty of scope for an upset
16.50 #1 Sky Pirate @ 12/1 - Brought in an EW for me last year, going with him again today
17.30 #7 Facile Vega @ 7/4 - Same concept with the finale as yesterday, going with Team Mullins who are now favourite

Doccykins fucked around with this message at 10:28 on Mar 16, 2022

Doccykins
Feb 21, 2006
:toot:

Mrenda
Mar 14, 2012
Well done. After a disaster yesterday with only Zanahiyr placing for me (and that was a last minute bet) I might be doing well enough today to contemplate another day out in the pub.

Definitely a different vibe of Cheltenham to the past few years. After GS ground for years with nothing really changing during the week the dry ground yesterday to GS this morning to Soft, to heavy by now is really shaking things up. It'll bode well for future years with people thinking, "Anything can happen!" and maybe running more horses.

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Doccykins
Feb 21, 2006
Thanks! Up 18u yesterday, +28 for the week so playing with house money for these last two days

13.30 #1 Bob Olinger @ 6/5 - This is a two horse race between this Rachael Blackmore/Henry De Bromhead winner of last year's Grade 1 Ballymore Novices' Hurdle and the winner of last year's Class 2 Conditional Jockey's Handicap Hurdle #3 Galopin Des Champs. Think the Blackmore ride might have the legs here but it is close
14.10 #2 Ballyandy @ 14/1 - Going deep here as the favourite #1 Sire Du Berlais hasn't won on Heavy ground recently and from yesterday's mud bath the ground is gonna yield. Even deeper is a small flyer on #21 Kansas City Chief EW @33/1 - SkyBet paying up to 8 places for this one
14.50 #1 Allaho @ 4/6 - Odds on favourite here, won last year by 12 lengths, noone's been talking about anything else and his last two wins were on Soft to Yielding and Good/Yielding ground
15.30 #10 Royal Kahala @ 6/1 - There's a three way co-favourite at the moment, the only one who's won on yielding ground recently is #4 Klassical Dream who was beaten in his last race by... Royal Kahala by 11.5 lengths
16.10 #13 The Glancing Queen @ 4/1 - Another Tom Cannon/Alan King favourite, the tipsters are going for #4 Imperial Alcazar but might have got their money stuck on day 1 when the ground was firmer
16.50 #2 Love Envoi @ 10/1 - Won his last 3 all on Heavy ground, the favourite #11 Dinoblue is young and relatively untested at somewhere busy and noisy like Cheltenham so might get the yips
17.30 #3 Ain't that a Shame @ 8/1 - Rookie Jockey last run of the day, this looks like it could be anyone's so going with the horse who's won on Yielding a number of times from Henry De Bromhead's stable

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