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Zugzwang
Jan 2, 2005

You have a kind of sick desperation in your laugh.


Ramrod XTreme
B.1.617 (the "Indian variant") has been detected in my area, and indoor activities are in full swing again. Restaurants are practically overflowing with people.

There's a high rate of vaccination and mask usage otherwise, but still...this will be interesting.

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Zugzwang
Jan 2, 2005

You have a kind of sick desperation in your laugh.


Ramrod XTreme

Deep Glove Bruno posted:

I've read that variant isn't as contagious as Kent, is this one a particular worry for some reason?

wilderthanmild posted:

There isn't a lot of hard evidence about the Indian variant right now. Essentially the worry is that the set of mutations it has may confer increased transmission, vaccine evasion, or more severe symptoms. However unlike P.1 or B.1.1.7 there isn't much real world evidence about B.1.617 yet, mostly just guesses based on the mutations it has.
Yeah, I keep seeing concerns about possible immune evasion from variants like B.1.617, but we don't really know yet.

Kent is dominant at the moment in many places due to its infectiousness, but at least the major vaccines seem to work very well against it. Dunno about B.1.617.

Do we know how P.1/B.1.351 do against the vaccines? I've seen mixed evidence about the latter, mostly lab studies that only look at antibodies and not T-cells, so I don't know how that translates to the real world.

Zugzwang
Jan 2, 2005

You have a kind of sick desperation in your laugh.


Ramrod XTreme
I like that he's been released, because clearly he's mentally stable and won't do something like this ever again, much less within the next few days.

Zugzwang
Jan 2, 2005

You have a kind of sick desperation in your laugh.


Ramrod XTreme
https://twitter.com/EricTopol/status/1414947666723676160?s=20
Holy fuckballs, look at that Netherlands curve.

A bunch of my coworkers (not in the Netherlands) are talking about how they're looking forward to the "post-Covid" summer. Yeahhhhh, about that.

Zugzwang
Jan 2, 2005

You have a kind of sick desperation in your laugh.


Ramrod XTreme
https://twitter.com/DataDrivenMD/status/1415490036401770496?s=20
Cool and good.

Zugzwang
Jan 2, 2005

You have a kind of sick desperation in your laugh.


Ramrod XTreme
People, by and large, seem to think that covid is over. This includes people who took it seriously at the start, not just the deniers.

Zugzwang
Jan 2, 2005

You have a kind of sick desperation in your laugh.


Ramrod XTreme

nexous posted:

I, for one, am looking forward to being smarter than everyone because I didn’t get long covid brain damage, only alcohol induced brain damage
Same but sleep deprivation-induced brain damage in my case

Seriously though, I live near a major city and a bunch of my 20something coworkers are talking about moving there from the 'burbs for "the big post-covid party." There will no doubt be parties, but not post-covid ones.

Zugzwang
Jan 2, 2005

You have a kind of sick desperation in your laugh.


Ramrod XTreme

Snowglobe of Doom posted:

E: I googled and they've been fully reopened since June 14 with all schools and businesses open, no physical distancing requirements for most settings, no capacity limits for businesses, eased masking requirements and no mask requirements for vaccinated people in most settings, etc etc..
https://cmo.smcgov.org/press-release/june-14-2021-california-and-san-mateo-county-reopen-vaccinations-remain-key-ending

66% fully vaxxed and next-to-no NPIs means cases go up!
Yeah, CA has been "open 'er up!" Not many people wear masks anymore, even though of course nobody's verifying who's vaxxed and who isn't.

Dren posted:

wtf is that cdc case rate data? doesn’t match up with other sources
Ok, that is odd.

Platystemon posted:

I don’t know about this Dr Caballero, but Bedford’s work has been good.

https://twitter.com/trvrb/status/1410376344735678468

Now that’s a big wave.

Via this Caballero thread:

https://twitter.com/DataDrivenMD/status/1412201867862450176
Yikes. That's even more people than have been officially infected so far, although that number is surely undercounted.

Zugzwang
Jan 2, 2005

You have a kind of sick desperation in your laugh.


Ramrod XTreme
So with all the talk about boosters and mixing vaccines from different manufacturers, are people in the US able to just show up and get a 3rd shot if they want?

Zugzwang
Jan 2, 2005

You have a kind of sick desperation in your laugh.


Ramrod XTreme
Please cum inside your heart

Zugzwang
Jan 2, 2005

You have a kind of sick desperation in your laugh.


Ramrod XTreme

Blitter posted:

There are a lot of unanswered questions about transmission in vaccinated people, but also, the CDC is explicitly not tracking or even counting positive cases in the vaccinated, unless they are hospitalised.

There is however solid evidence of transmissiblity and even the 1/10 superspreaders within the asymptomatic, pre symptomatic and mildly asymptomatic population of the infected. There is no reason to think this is any different within those who are vaccinated and in those same categories.

All the vaccines do provide protection against infection but none are as effective at preventing infection as they are at preventing severe disease and all have somewhat lessened performance against current variants.

So sure, it's your risk profile and decision to make, but the narrative that vaccines work in the manner you describe is specifically not being validated in the US.
Aren't there also a lot of problems with tracking breakthrough asymptomatic/mild cases? As in, it's being done very little or not at all, especially with asymptomatic ones? Seems like that would impair our understanding of how the virus can spread amongst the vaccinated.

Anyway, my county's positivity rate has gone from around 1% to over 3% in the past two weeks, so I'm going to be That Guy with the respirator again.

Zugzwang
Jan 2, 2005

You have a kind of sick desperation in your laugh.


Ramrod XTreme

Snowglobe of Doom posted:

....... but they're also asking for an extra 4 to 6 months of safety follow-up data before they approve the vaccines for kids under 12, which pushes that date back to at least mid-winter
https://www.nbcnews.com/health/health-news/vaccines-kids-under-age-12-expected-mid-winter-fda-official-n1274057
A lot of officials seem awfully optimistic that full authorization of the vaccines will mitigate vaccine hesitancy vs. emergency use authorization.

Zugzwang
Jan 2, 2005

You have a kind of sick desperation in your laugh.


Ramrod XTreme

Snowglobe of Doom posted:

The UK has a higher percentage of delta than India, the (apparent) country of origin. They can't get enough of it

https://ourworldindata.org/explorer...try=USA~GBR~IND
Makes total sense considering that Delta is so infectious on its own, plus the vaccines work really well against Alpha but less so (nobody's quite sure how much less yet) against Delta.

When vaccine companies roll out variant-specific boosters, are we gonna have to wait the same amount of time that we did for the original vaccines for approval of the boosters?

Zugzwang
Jan 2, 2005

You have a kind of sick desperation in your laugh.


Ramrod XTreme

Platystemon posted:

The FDA has suggested they’ll treat it like the flu vaccine’s yearly updates. Specifically,

https://www.fda.gov/news-events/pre...ddressing-virus
What does all their "encouraged" language entail? Anyway, seems like a good thing.

Also, is there a good reason why the FDA is going to take several more months to EUA the vaccine for kids? Seems like sending a ton of unvaccinated kids back to school to hotbox with Delta is...bad?

Zugzwang
Jan 2, 2005

You have a kind of sick desperation in your laugh.


Ramrod XTreme

Platystemon posted:

I cannot imagine that the risk is greater than that of attending classes without a vaccine, but that seems to be where things are headed.
Yeah, that's gotta be a poo poo decision to make. And the media will hype up the side effects that do show up, while all the extra associated cases will just be statistics.

SamBishop posted:

Also, we're all in agreement that the Olympics are gonna be a goddamn covid bloodbath, right?
:thumbsup:

Zugzwang
Jan 2, 2005

You have a kind of sick desperation in your laugh.


Ramrod XTreme

Fur20 posted:

look, at least (last i heard) the government isn't permitting ANY spectators, improved from their "50% occupancy, no tourists" stated policy from two months ago
It's better for sure, but tons of athletes are unvaccinated. So yeah uh this might be some people's last Olympics, and not because they get too old for their sport.

Zugzwang
Jan 2, 2005

You have a kind of sick desperation in your laugh.


Ramrod XTreme
My parents are going to a big dinner event next Friday. Ugh. They are both mRNA fully vaxxed, but my mom is immunosuppressed and still hasn't gotten the antibody test that I keep asking her to get. They said they'll "be careful" because they're getting individual dinners and aren't doing a buffet, as if that matters; being indoors with a bunch of maskless people is the very definition of "not being careful," even if a high percentage of them are vaxxed. :negative: drat this six feet apart droplet nonsense.

If I didn't live on the other side of the country from them, I'd remove their car batteries on Friday morning or something. I'm gonna have to be extra annoying this week to try and get them to not go.

Kirk Vikernes posted:

Probably for the same reason goons are still getting vaccinated in July. Not all olympians are American.
Yeah, it's a mix of people straight-up not having access to them and people from countries like the US that aren't vaccinated because of freedumb.

Zugzwang
Jan 2, 2005

You have a kind of sick desperation in your laugh.


Ramrod XTreme

Nitr0 posted:

You should leave your vaxxed parents alone and let them live their lives.
Seems like a good plan vis-a-vis the most infectious (and likely somewhat vaccine-resistant) variant we've ever seen being dominant, one of them probably having a crap immune response due to immunosuppressants, and both of them having lots of comorbidities :thumbsup:

Zugzwang
Jan 2, 2005

You have a kind of sick desperation in your laugh.


Ramrod XTreme

Nitr0 posted:

Gonna assume your parents are 50+ yrs old right? They can't be trusted to manage their own health and determine and make decisions on their own? I just don't understand having a pestering child
If they actually think that they are in any way "being careful" by hotboxing for hours in a room full of maskless people, they are making decisions based on extremely bad information, hth

Zugzwang
Jan 2, 2005

You have a kind of sick desperation in your laugh.


Ramrod XTreme

Anne Whateley posted:

If they can say "I truly don't care if I die in a month or if I spend the rest of my life on oxygen," then their decisions would at least be consistent with their beliefs, but somehow I don't think that's the case.
Yeah, they had just gotten done telling my wife & I about people they know who aren't getting vaccinated and how they're trying to convince them to do so. The problem is that they seem to think that vaccinated == Hakuna Matata, which would be lovely but isn't at all true.

The situation now seems both better and worse than before. Better in that we have vaccines and have shown how effective mRNA technology is. But worse in that before we had the vaccines, there was at least the hope of rapid rollout/adoption and subsequent herd immunity. Welp ¯\_(ツ)_/¯

Zugzwang
Jan 2, 2005

You have a kind of sick desperation in your laugh.


Ramrod XTreme
I wonder if there's a single living person who's done more harm to humanity as whole than Andrew Wakefield. I guess maybe Charles Koch for funding climate denial so heavily? They'd both be on the All-Star Team in any case.

Zugzwang fucked around with this message at 06:13 on Jul 19, 2021

Zugzwang
Jan 2, 2005

You have a kind of sick desperation in your laugh.


Ramrod XTreme

CaptainSarcastic posted:

Rupert Murdoch outclasses them in terms of evil.
Ok, I feel bad for forgetting him. :eng99:

Zugzwang
Jan 2, 2005

You have a kind of sick desperation in your laugh.


Ramrod XTreme

goddamnedtwisto posted:

I mean quite apart from like Genghis Khan, Adolf Hitler, and half a dozen others who have been personally responsible for the deaths of an actual appreciable percentage of the population of the world, you've also got Thomas Midgley who is responsible for both leaded petrol and CFCs.

Wakefield is a prick, sure, but in terms of direct deaths caused he's not even in the same class as Coltan mining, let alone Fritz Haber.
I did say "living" :buddy:

Anyway, I admit that Wakefield is real bad but probably not the worst, so nevermind.

Zugzwang
Jan 2, 2005

You have a kind of sick desperation in your laugh.


Ramrod XTreme
Test positivity rates in my county and the surrounding counties are now above or very close to breaking 5% again, meaning we'll be undersampling. Test positivity was 1% a few weeks ago. Cool and good.

My new half-face respirator with a speaking valve can't come soon enough.

Seems like the UK is going to give us a lot of information on how much the vaccines actually protect against Delta :stare:

Zugzwang
Jan 2, 2005

You have a kind of sick desperation in your laugh.


Ramrod XTreme
I wonder where that 60% figure is from or what it refers to. The whole of the UK? (Thus the problem with quoting a random investment account.)

I realize that in a highly vaccinated population, a high proportion of people hospitalized will be vaccinated just because most people are vaccinated. So I'm wondering how that number shakes out in terms of what the background vaccination rate was etc. Some places are much more vaccinated than others in the UK.

Zugzwang
Jan 2, 2005

You have a kind of sick desperation in your laugh.


Ramrod XTreme

Snowglobe of Doom posted:

There was a very very similar story coming out of Israel earlier in the week where 60% of extreme hospitalized cases were fully vaxxed ........ but they have an even higher vaxx rate than the UK and they also have maybe less than 20 covid patients a day in ICU.
Yeah, evidently Israel is releasing more information later this week. Too bad their sample is so small.

I still hate that the media is presenting these "so many fully vaccinated people in the hospital!" numbers as if that wasn't expected given an imperfect vaccine and a highly vaccinated population. If news reporting legally required not using misleading/garbage statistics then the media would implode on itself like a dying star.

Zugzwang
Jan 2, 2005

You have a kind of sick desperation in your laugh.


Ramrod XTreme

ArbitraryC posted:

I feel like it’s actually very necessary to be alarmist because even many goons posting itt are too stupid to keep wearing masks without mandates to the point they were encouraging other people to drop masks so there probably does need to be some wild scale “the vaccine helps but we still need to be cautious” messaging complete with sobering stats.

The reality is if it turns out that delta gets around the vaccines but is still blunted in damage that’s incredibly good news but we just got incredibly lucky, if we have the same reaction to one that both gets around the present vaccines and is much more dangerous to vaccinated people we’re going to be in deep poo poo.
:agreed:

The thing we have no data on right now and won't for a while is what long covid with delta in the vaccinated looks like. It's frustrating as hell that denialists and the ill-informed keep trotting out the supposed low death rate as no cause for alarm, though of course 9/11 truthers kept bringing up the "jet fuel can't melt steel" thing for a zillion years, so.

Zugzwang
Jan 2, 2005

You have a kind of sick desperation in your laugh.


Ramrod XTreme
Reporting bias is a hell of a thing. "Vaccinated person didn't die of covid!" isn't interesting or newsworthy; "vaccinated person got really sick with covid" is. Just like "these 300 million people lost the lottery" vs. "this one guy managed to hit 1 in 300 million odds and win the lottery." Guess which you'll hear about?

The vaccines still offer great protection against severe illness, hospitalization, and death. Nothing is 100%, but your fully-vaccinated odds are way better than your non-vaccinated odds. The vaccines are NOT a free license to party party party hardy in huge indoor maskless crowds if you live in an area with high caseloads/low vaccination rates, so keep on masking up and being careful. But don't freak out either about individual reports in the news.

That said,

Rolo posted:

So is it basically fact now that the vax makes the infection more mild?

I’m having kind of a holy poo poo moment because if yesterday was any worse I would have gone to the ER.
Hope you feel better soon! Obviously it's impossible to say what would've happened to you if you caught it without the vaccine, but generally people with the vaccine who catch it do a lot better than unvaccinated people. I'm glad you had that level of preexisting protection.

Zugzwang
Jan 2, 2005

You have a kind of sick desperation in your laugh.


Ramrod XTreme

Ugly In The Morning posted:

I mean, look at the data from VA a goon posted a bit up page, the vaccines offer great protection even from just getting it- if you set the date range for the last month, 95 percent of all cases are in the unvaccinated.
Yeah, even if I set my brain to full doomer, I can't come up with a negative interpretation of that data.

Also aren't most breakthrough deaths in the elderly or infirm, i.e., the people at most risk anyway? I don't mean that in a callous way unlike the "they were gonna die anyway, just let them" jerks; just pointing out that if you aren't elderly/etc., maybe reports of breakthrough deaths in those groups don't apply to you so much.

Zugzwang
Jan 2, 2005

You have a kind of sick desperation in your laugh.


Ramrod XTreme

Ugly In The Morning posted:

That’s part of the Lancet article, they used absurd virus samples in the early studies and counted fragmented RNA/noninfectious viral fragments
Yeah, 10^7 infectious viral particles (used in one of those studies) is a ton. For reference, that's a reasonable amount of virus in a whole milliliter of nasal fluid of an infected patient. I'm still hand sanitizing after grocery shopping/touching gas pumps/etc. because why not, but it's clear that surfaces are not the main source of infection.

Zugzwang
Jan 2, 2005

You have a kind of sick desperation in your laugh.


Ramrod XTreme

A Fancy Hat posted:

Don't worry, I'm sure everyone who decided this was the summer to visit a massive theme park is vaccinated and has been taking covid seriously.
I can't help but notice that in a population that's 60-70% vaccinated, nearly 100% of people were maskless as soon as the mandates were lifted. Guess the 30-40% of unvaccinated people are all staying at home??

Zugzwang
Jan 2, 2005

You have a kind of sick desperation in your laugh.


Ramrod XTreme

Fur20 posted:

the negative interpretation is that all these assholes hospitalized with covid, which could be avoided almost completely with vaccination + masking + distancing + building capacity regulations, are monopolizing hospital bed space.

twenty car pileup on the i-95, two dozen people in critical condition? get in line!!
Yeah, there is that. :o: I mostly meant no negative interpretation wrt ":derp: the vaccines aren't working :derp:" doomerism.

JammyB posted:

Agree with what you're saying, but wearing a mask does very little to protect yourself, right?
Properly-fitted masks offer nonzero protection to you, and filtration masks (N95, KN95, KF94) protect the wearer AND others. For extra points, respirators with P100 cartridges are boss.

Zugzwang
Jan 2, 2005

You have a kind of sick desperation in your laugh.


Ramrod XTreme

dwarf74 posted:

Way to go.... NFL?

Huh.
They're good at doing the right thing when the right thing is financially prudent.

Zugzwang
Jan 2, 2005

You have a kind of sick desperation in your laugh.


Ramrod XTreme

sharknado slashfic posted:

Yes. There's also some legit star players reacting poorly so we'll see how long it lasts.
I'm worried about what the vaccine may do to my body, says man who's paid to get hit over and over and over by human tanks.

Zugzwang
Jan 2, 2005

You have a kind of sick desperation in your laugh.


Ramrod XTreme

Fallom posted:

Looks like he tweeted through the whole thing too

Doubt he thought it was worth dodging a sore arm or a slight fever at the end

Died days after mocking Biden’s vaccine push, too
Who could have predicted this?

Rolo posted:

Me: Alright! I wore a mask for over a year, stayed away from people and got vaccinated. Time to go enjoy a drink outside, my brain needs this.

Everyone here: We didn’t do anything.

Me: *cough*
I know it's frustrating as hell, but if you were going to get covid, now's the time. Your vaccination probably made your illness a lot less severe than it otherwise would have been, and we now know how to treat it a lot better than we did earlier in the pandemic.

Zugzwang
Jan 2, 2005

You have a kind of sick desperation in your laugh.


Ramrod XTreme

sharknado slashfic posted:

Well, they know a lot of stuff that DOESN'T work i.e. HCQ, probably Ivermectin, and in Remdesivir's case appears to actually make it worse. So that's something I guess.
Dexamethasone has a lot of utility when given at the right time, plus proning patients, ventilating appropriately, etc.

Zugzwang
Jan 2, 2005

You have a kind of sick desperation in your laugh.


Ramrod XTreme
Where did this ivermectin bullshit come from? Bret Weinstein was the first grifter I encountered pushing it, but I'm not sure if he got it from someplace else.

Zugzwang
Jan 2, 2005

You have a kind of sick desperation in your laugh.


Ramrod XTreme

pacerhimself posted:

There was probably a minor amount of therapeutic usefulness to it in certain cases, so naturally they latch onto it being THE CURE. They don't understand medicinal efficacy.
It was found to be useful against the virus in cell culture. The problem is that the amount required to work is way more than you can safely and reasonably get into your body. The same can be said for bleach :buddy:

Fluffy Bunnies posted:

E: don't take loving ivermectin
Unless you have some worms you gotta get rid of.

Zugzwang
Jan 2, 2005

You have a kind of sick desperation in your laugh.


Ramrod XTreme

Snowglobe of Doom posted:

There was a flurry of pre-print studies in April 2020 which reported in vitro success in treating SARS-CoV-2 with ivermectin ..... which of course doesn't mean a loving thing in the real world (you could dump a bucket of bleach on a petri dish of covid particles and show in vitro success in eliminating the virus, and people noted very quickly that the dosage required to have the same effects with ivermectin in vivo would be highly toxic) but scientists the world over kept publishing lovely pre-prints and then social media caught hold of it and then the alt-right media got hold of it and uncritically lauded it just the same as they'd done with hydroxychloroquine.
Nice link! I'm not surprised somebody studied this phenomenon.

Comfy Fleece Sweater posted:

P sure it was one of the first options considered when the panic made everyone go "GIVE US SOMETHING NOW, DOES THIS WORK? NO? MAYBE THIS? WHAT ABOUT CHLORINE IN OUR BLOODGHAAAAHH"
Substantial amounts of chlorine in your blood will definitely keep you from dying of COVID-19.

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Zugzwang
Jan 2, 2005

You have a kind of sick desperation in your laugh.


Ramrod XTreme
The thread said that the degree of deficit did indeed correlate with the severity of the covid case, which isn't too surprising. This tweet in particular is both correct and alarming:
https://twitter.com/chrischirp/status/1418696510712254469?s=20

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