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(Thread IKs: ZShakespeare)
 
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Typo
Aug 19, 2009

Chernigov Military Aviation Lyceum
The Fighting Slowpokes
So I'm hearing if there's a federal election this summer/fall barring something like a 4th wave the Liberals are probably gonna gain seats just cuz everyone is getting their doses and re-opening is happening. It's just a matter of if they get a majority or not.

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Typo
Aug 19, 2009

Chernigov Military Aviation Lyceum
The Fighting Slowpokes

boo boo bear posted:

I think black culture, if that's the appropriate term, transcends petty bullshit like nationality.

:stare:

Typo
Aug 19, 2009

Chernigov Military Aviation Lyceum
The Fighting Slowpokes

eXXon posted:

The FIRE sector (Finance, Insurance and Real Estate) is an absurdly large fraction of the economy in basically every province (and I'm going to assume territory too).

Imagine if housing prices started declining - what would happen to all the Realtors (TM), contractors/hardware stores, the ~70k new condo units being designed and built every year in the GTA (I think it's up to 20k+ per quarter), the banks lending money to finance all of this poo poo, etc. etc.

Canada is truly innovative in that Canadians discovered how to have an economy by selling houses to each other

Fed gov should promise to invest in bitcoin mines to make canada #1 producer in world: ensuring prosperity for our children and grandchildren

Canadian economy can just become all about money laundering and money laundering associated activites

Typo
Aug 19, 2009

Chernigov Military Aviation Lyceum
The Fighting Slowpokes
We need to get the U of T campus to be like the Japanese imperial palace.

In the sense that the palace was once valued to be worth more than the state of California. Once we get there we can just sell it and buy a real economy from another country.

Typo
Aug 19, 2009

Chernigov Military Aviation Lyceum
The Fighting Slowpokes

The best part is the Tories are getting the exact same 34% they had in 2019

Typo
Aug 19, 2009

Chernigov Military Aviation Lyceum
The Fighting Slowpokes
Debate atm

moderator: waht do you think of afghanistan mr o'toole

OTool: THE ELECTION TRUDEAU ELECTION NOBODY WANTS ELECTION

Typo
Aug 19, 2009

Chernigov Military Aviation Lyceum
The Fighting Slowpokes
THE MICAHELS

Typo
Aug 19, 2009

Chernigov Military Aviation Lyceum
The Fighting Slowpokes
moderator: anything

OTOOL: TRUDEAU ELECTION MAN BAD BAD

Typo
Aug 19, 2009

Chernigov Military Aviation Lyceum
The Fighting Slowpokes
the "18 year old" looks 35

Typo
Aug 19, 2009

Chernigov Military Aviation Lyceum
The Fighting Slowpokes
I just realized the BQ really really loving wants to get rid of the monarchy LOL

Typo
Aug 19, 2009

Chernigov Military Aviation Lyceum
The Fighting Slowpokes

Bleusilences posted:

Everyone should be uncomfortable with the PPC numbers IMO.

I get the impression that the PPC numbers this time is due to vaxx bringing out single issue voters

very few people care about being anti-gender pronouns or whatever american-style cultural war issue they are trying to import

covid will not be a major issue in another 2 years, interest in them will drop accordingly

I could just be wrong though lol, maybe in another 2 years Leader Bernier will be marching on Ottowa or wahtever

Typo fucked around with this message at 15:59 on Sep 17, 2021

Typo
Aug 19, 2009

Chernigov Military Aviation Lyceum
The Fighting Slowpokes


If you do the math, the majority of the PPC gains in this election are from 2019 non-voters and a tiny fraction of Green party voters rather than defections from the tories.

This suggests very strongly to me the PPC gains are from single issue anti-vaxxer voters, rather than affinity for more general right-wing ideology

Typo
Aug 19, 2009

Chernigov Military Aviation Lyceum
The Fighting Slowpokes

Calumanjaro posted:

Unless I'm misreading the graph, 3% of conservatives would be larger than 4% of greens. I'm also sceptical al any of those nonvoters will vote this time.
yes, I said the 2019 non-voters+defection from greens. Not the green defections by themselves.

if you think the 2019 non-voters aren't gonna vote this time either sure, but we'll see

My personal observation (admitly limited sample size cuz irl+fb) on the PPC support this time is a lot of people who didn't give a poo poo about politics before vaccines and now all of a sudden do is because of vaccines

Typo fucked around with this message at 19:53 on Sep 19, 2021

Typo
Aug 19, 2009

Chernigov Military Aviation Lyceum
The Fighting Slowpokes
Canadian electoral system, greatest in world!

BC:

quote:

Liberals: 26.8% - 15 seats
New Democrats: 29.0% - 13 seats
Conservatives: 33.4% - 13 seats
Greens: 5.3% - 1 seat
People's: 5.1% - 0 seats


Ontario:

quote:

Liberals: 38.9% - 78 seats
Conservatives: 35.1% - 37 seats
New Democrats: 17.8% - 5 seats
People's: 5.6% - 0 seats
Greens: 2.2% - 1 seat

much democracy very popular!

Typo fucked around with this message at 15:00 on Sep 21, 2021

Typo
Aug 19, 2009

Chernigov Military Aviation Lyceum
The Fighting Slowpokes
based on personal observation (from listening to campaign ads on radio) Tories focused way way too much on Trudeau bad man. While that did work for like a couple of weeks the voters seem to be apathetic after that

Typo
Aug 19, 2009

Chernigov Military Aviation Lyceum
The Fighting Slowpokes

ZeeBoi posted:

So in the end O’Toole actually won a few less than Scheer lol

there's still some seats where vote counting isn't done

he might end up with the exact same number

Typo
Aug 19, 2009

Chernigov Military Aviation Lyceum
The Fighting Slowpokes
home owners are on avg much older and much more likely to vote than a renter

Typo
Aug 19, 2009

Chernigov Military Aviation Lyceum
The Fighting Slowpokes

smallpox party but with covid

Typo
Aug 19, 2009

Chernigov Military Aviation Lyceum
The Fighting Slowpokes
Seems like the Tories will end up with...the exact number of seats they had

it will be interesting to see what happens internally. O-2 ran as true blue conservative in the primaries leadership races and then stuck very hard to the center in the GE. And the result could be interpreted either way as a win or a loss.

Will be interesting to see if the Tories start shifting back towards the right or decide "if we just do the same thing against in 2023 but slightly better we'll win"

Also lol@Libs losing votes while gaining seats



Canada doesn't even have gerrymandering, but the Libs have like 40 more seats than their % of popular vote would indicate. The discrepancy might legit be worse than the gerrymandered US house map.

Typo fucked around with this message at 21:25 on Sep 24, 2021

Typo
Aug 19, 2009

Chernigov Military Aviation Lyceum
The Fighting Slowpokes

Ron Paul Atreides posted:

I know it was short notice but was there even all that much variance on policy this election?

Only policy difference was the PPC anti-vaxx thing. The vote split from what I heard might legit have costed the tories a dozen seat or something in close races.

But the election was mostly fought over Trudeau bad man yes/no

Typo
Aug 19, 2009

Chernigov Military Aviation Lyceum
The Fighting Slowpokes
Maigou

Typo
Aug 19, 2009

Chernigov Military Aviation Lyceum
The Fighting Slowpokes

Ron Paul Atreides posted:

Trying desperately to get Canadians to have modicum of self awareness as we trundle along into the next phase of confrontation, as the aggressor.

North Americans in general are all totally deluded about the actual nature of the empire we sit at the center of. We are the fascist super state. We are the ones whose agents pillage the world for our oligarchy. But without pausing for a moment progressives will declare China or Russia Authoritarian hell holes, never once investigating the actual facts, context or history of either side.

What are you doing here? Here to jack off to the glorious history of the 'true north strong and free?' A lot of otherwise 'progressive' folk seem okay with discussing the skeletons of our history and imperial nature, but as soon as that fact is presented as a reason maybe we shouldn't attempt to police the world or casts stones, now thats unacceptable, how will we malign the perfidious celestials? Otherwise we'd have to focus on fixing ourselves, wouldn't we?

The endless refrain of 'you can do two things' will come and, respectfully, you can't. Your focus is limited, as is the nation's at large. Rhetorical focus on the imagined monstrosities of the east serve directly to weaken any focus or criticism of our system, because then we don't seem so bad, so really why worry about it.

The coddled privilege of the bourgeois to displace the problem to a nebulous generality, so nothing we do ever has to actually be challenged.

I fully agree with poster, talking about Xinjiang concentration camps (which we aren't even really sure is bad literally fuckig John Bolton the war criminal says it's bad so we should be skeptical about it being bad) would only encourage the bourgeoise and white privilege. And is frankly racist since it does not take into account China's unique culture and historical context. We should instead refocus on "hardline" critic of Fascist-Super state of Canada since every minute where you are writing a post about China is a minute you aren't spending attacking Canadian super fascism.

Typo
Aug 19, 2009

Chernigov Military Aviation Lyceum
The Fighting Slowpokes
81%+ of Ontarians 12+ are fully vaxxed

86%+ has at least 1 dose

That's encouraging at least, we aren't stuck in the high 50s/low 60s like the US appear to be

Typo
Aug 19, 2009

Chernigov Military Aviation Lyceum
The Fighting Slowpokes

Starks posted:

Nonresident ownership in Toronto is 3.4% from all countries including the US lol, China is not the reason our real estate is expensive. Vancouver is 4.8%. That idea was always at least partially rooted in xenophobia but it’s interesting how it’s changed from Hong Kong specifically to China in general.

Edit: that’s not to say that we shouldn’t ban nonresident ownership, but limiting investment from China just won’t do much on its own. There are lots of other good ideas like 60% minimum down payment on second homes and even restrictions on inter-city buying.

foreign buyers prob did play a significant part in the initial bubble phase back in 2013 or so

since then it's mainly a narrative that justifies domestic speculation based on expectation of ever higher prices

Typo
Aug 19, 2009

Chernigov Military Aviation Lyceum
The Fighting Slowpokes
The Libs are up to 160 seats now, I guess they can call it a win

still clearly short of a majority, but again lol@actually gaining seats while losing votes and the PV

Typo
Aug 19, 2009

Chernigov Military Aviation Lyceum
The Fighting Slowpokes

InfiniteZero posted:

Please be respectful of our Canadian Heritage.



an oldie

Typo
Aug 19, 2009

Chernigov Military Aviation Lyceum
The Fighting Slowpokes
I actually do kinda wonder: would ranked choice or PR just split the current parties entirely

Typo
Aug 19, 2009

Chernigov Military Aviation Lyceum
The Fighting Slowpokes

Fidelitious posted:

Seems like a problem that takes care of itself.

Numerous easy access trails at Lynn Headwaters/Canyon have had beautiful views ruined by huge chainlink fences because people kept doing stupid poo poo and dying.
Put a little shin-height 'fence' and a very obvious danger sign and then let people off themselves if they really want to be dumbasses. Because people just climb over the fence to cliff-dive anyway.

To what extent are the parks services or governments responsible to completely block off any dangerous area is the question.

putting up a huge DANGER!!!! sign does seem like a good idea

Typo
Aug 19, 2009

Chernigov Military Aviation Lyceum
The Fighting Slowpokes

Stanley Pain posted:

Why are TERFs and Transphobes so loving fixated on bathrooms? Like Yorkdale mall has had gender neutral bathrooms for years now. Are there conga lines of trans rapists just lurking in the shadows waiting for their chance to strike?

Let's not even get started on the fact that trans folks are actually the ones more likely to be sexually assaulted in the first place...

it's the most visible symbol of something they hate

the moral panic on the right over transgenderism has reached hysterical proportions, both the language and the core ideas/emotion behind it is almost a copy/paste of 1980s era homophobia

Typo
Aug 19, 2009

Chernigov Military Aviation Lyceum
The Fighting Slowpokes

PT6A posted:

I have a feeling the Liberals will lose because of the housing crisis. It’s gotten way out of hand, and they show no willingness to do anything about it. The NDP’s solutions are asinine and most people already don’t trust them on economic issues. The Conservatives could walk away with a landslide if they’d nominated a rancid ham sandwich, so I suspect they’ll eke out a small victory with Polliver.

How and why the Liberals and NDP have let it go so long without doing anything (or at least talking a big game about how the Feds will make lower levels of government do something) is political malpractice. I think the Conservatives will win at this point, and I’ll be happy for it if it means the further-left parties have to remove their heads from their asses, because I can’t see what apart from the loss of power will motivate them to do that.

it really really look like the LIbs are going to lose whenever the next federal election is called

but at the same time the Canadian Tories are kinda pros at losing elections so we'll have to see

Typo
Aug 19, 2009

Chernigov Military Aviation Lyceum
The Fighting Slowpokes

DynamicSloth posted:

PP, Erin O'Toole and Andrew Scheer are all basically the same person. All of them would set their hypothetical government agenda on whatever is popular with ALEC that they can get away with passing in Canada. The next election will be a rerun of the last two because the Liberals are comfortable with that. Unfortunately the Liberals have eroded support every cycle and their electoral math has always depended on winning the same GTA suburbs that love Doug Ford.

Libs are polling like 10 points behind the PC atm (they ran around evenly in 2021) and it's really really hard to win 4 elections in a row

I mean it takes a lot of incompetency on the part of the opposition for the governing party to win even 3 elections but here we are

Typo
Aug 19, 2009

Chernigov Military Aviation Lyceum
The Fighting Slowpokes

DynamicSloth posted:

Yeah it's not good.

Now the Liberal HQ isn't too worried about national polls, they have by far the most efficient vote share of any party and are locked in on their target ridings and have pretty good data on which specific households they need to get out and vote. That said they're already running very, very thin with their micro targeting and when PP starts getting a bandwagon effect off of people assuming he's going to win it could very easily turn into a rout.

having the most efficient voter distribution is worth a couple of points in popular vote share but it's prob not gonna save them if the final result is 37-29-19 (Con/Lib/NDP)

on the same note, the Ontario Tories are fked in 2026 as well. 2022-202X is when we are reaping all the accumulated problems a 10-15 year boom business cycle caused. Things are almost certainly going to be worse in another 3 years than today before a market crash does a partial reset.

Typo fucked around with this message at 20:54 on Aug 14, 2023

Typo
Aug 19, 2009

Chernigov Military Aviation Lyceum
The Fighting Slowpokes

Fidelitious posted:

I'd like that to be the case but they rode to a massive majority last time around and they had already done plenty of horrible poo poo at that point.
I don't think their voters are going to care that they destroyed health care, the greenbelt, and pretty much everything else.

In a just world the entire government would have fallen already because of the blatant corruption but it's only a "kind of big" story it seems, not a "bring down the government" story.

it takes a while for voters to notice what's going on

and usually voters don't care about what the party in power -actually- did, it's more like "the economy is bad incumbent must be bad"

and things are probably gonna get a lot worse in the next 3 yrs

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Typo
Aug 19, 2009

Chernigov Military Aviation Lyceum
The Fighting Slowpokes
my right-wing boss told me he's voting Trudeau despite hating him specifically because he thinks Poilievre's bitcoin obsession is the stupidest thing to ever exist

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