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Why do pharmaceutics in space anyways? We have all these modules but it's interesting to think about just why they were put in the game. I'll start with the pharmaceutics one since it's so central to this mission. In-game, the pharmaceutics module shows up a lot because it has had a very high market return and has a uniquely useful connector layout. In the 1980s, medical research was (PDF warning) one of the major justifications for the ISS. The hope was that some special medications could only be produced in a zero-g environment. A crystallization experiment flew on Skylab and a few on the Shuttle and it was hoped that larger advances could be done with longer duration missions and more sophisticated support technology. There are several reasons for this, but the largest one is that crystal fractionation is much less prevalent in zero-g. When a liquid crystallizes on earth, the density changes (e.g. water ice) which then floats or sinks in the remaining liquid - changing the composition of the remaining liquid. It also results in a jumble of multiple crystals that aren't well-aligned, and can expose floating crystals to atmosphere which may degrade them. If you are looking to manufacture a special alloy with low-solubility mix-ins, or crystallize a drug candidate from a compound with high purity, gravity can be the enemy. So a space station was considered a better experimental environment. Some problems are still present or magnified, like skin effects, convective flows, or material handling, but the big ones are alleviated. So what happened? Ironically, technological progress. Genetic research techniques became astoundingly sophisticated through the development of the ISS. Between the announcement of the ISS to it's launch, the first generation of DNA sequencers was developed. By the time the first crew set foot in the station (the Shuttle still out-massed the ISS at this point) the Human Genome Project had achieved its goal. The ability to manipulate cells has grown to the point where it is far more cost effective to produce drug candidates on Earth than to try and isolate chemicals in space. Increased ability has also expanded the research space, and some modern medicines like monoclonal antibodies started therapeutic use during this interstitial period. The return on research effort for traditional drug candidate isolation waned in comparison to the new research frontier. Part of it is also the classic capitalist research Catch-22: the societies (especially on a global scale) rich enough to manufacture medicines in space also have enough wealth inequality that not enough sick people can afford to buy those medicines, which prevents people from trying, which would drive cost reduction. Today, the major space application for pharmaceutics research is still protein crystallization, which allows for very fine examination of some properties of proteins:  That image includes two crystallized viruses, which still blows my mind: this quasi-life form, crystallized. Anyways. Protein crystallization experiments are pretty drat small which makes them cheap enough to stick in orbit. The idea of the mega pharmaceutical research stations that we're launching in this game is laughable in comparison to the actual demand for these experiments. If space drug manufacturing was seriously worthwhile, then maybe we would have seen such stations. But not for the foreseeable future. It seems like stem cell research also benefits from a zero-g environment, maybe because there's no gravity or less mechanical strain triggering differentiation. But gene manipulation technology is still advancing on Earth, so who knows what will happen in the future? I don't know poo poo about pharmaceutical research beyond reading a bunch of pop science and biohacking stuff, so the next module I write up will probably be better!
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Jul 10, 2021 16:56
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berryjon posted:Waitaminute...   Decoy Badger's second station is updated without incident.  Unfortunately, he mismathed somewhere in constructing the third and has insufficient Power to activate the last Resource Platform. (The current design has a surplus of 9 GGym and 1 Life and a deficit of 5 Power.) How would you like to address this, Decoy Badger? You have 99.9 credits.
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Jul 10, 2021 19:06
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Ah, sorry, please correct it to this, which should be about 78 more credits: I'm going to blame the Decoy Badger fucked around with this message at 23:07 on Jul 10, 2021 |
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Jul 10, 2021 22:36
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 Decoy Badger's station is updated without further incident. And speaking of incidents, incidentally, I know it's a W, but I keep seeing an E when I look at the Weather Center, no matter how the module is actually oriented. And also speaking of incidents, for whatever reason I decided to save state before actually advancing the turn - and I'm glad I did, because as soon as I hit 'next turn', I remembered I hadn't used Decoy Badger's remaining funds to pay down his debt! Crisis averted there. Module cost changes for Spring 1997, new items italicized:
 The Pharmaceutic market continues to fall; thankfully, the Medical market continues to surge, keeping my Pharmaceutic Lab modules profitable. That said, I took a big hit here; the Agriculture market didn't rise nearly as much as I'd hoped it would, meaning I only got 86% usage on my Weather Center modules, and I got a mere 78% usage on my Pharmaceutic Lab modules. I need to be more pessimistic about that market. (At least I got the Building Platforms right, with 100% usage.) My Shuttle Port modules, meanwhile, managed a single breakthrough between them. I need to step up my game in Transport research.  I start by finishing that addon to my second station I mentioned last turn. It's a bit awkward, but it should get the job done. (My loan limit is up to 307.9, which helps.)  I also finish station number three...  And whip out station number four. (Which is... actually slightly less efficient than station two? But prettier.) This ought to get the ball rolling on Transport research. I'm pessimistic about the market for the Pharmaceutic Lab and more so about the Weather Center; despite playing with various parameters in my market prediction program, I didn't get results that really expressed how I felt. So I mathed up a way of describing my pessimism and giving me a number to multiply suggested charges by. Is it any good? I have no idea! But hopefully it'll be better than how I've been doing.  And after doing some more math, I realize I'm ready to start shifting more modules into research mode. I'm going to leave the Shuttle Port modules in breakthrough mode, but I'm going to put my researching Pharmaceutics Lab modules into enhancement mode; that station doesn't have Weather Center modules, but it does have an absurd number of Pharmaceutic Lab modules, and quantity is a quality all its own. As for the commerce modules, I'm planning to charge 47.1 for the Pharmaceutic Lab modules (a tiny increase, entirely on the strength of the Medical market), 42.5 for my Building Platform modules (I like the market's movement and reliability both), and 35.3 for my Weather Center modules (a huge slash; Agriculture market, I am disappoint).  Berryjon, you got 95% usage on your Solar Collector modules, 100% usage on your Chemical Lab modules, 76% usage on your Pharmaceutic Lab modules (slightly less than I got, which makes me wonder just how strong that 'improves commerce' effect actually is), and 100% usage on your Shuttle Port modules.  Decoy Badger, you are absurdly rich. I look forward to seeing what you do with your cash. You got 84% Weather Center module usage, 100% Communications module usage, 100% Resource Platform module usage, 88% Pharmaceutic Lab module usage, 100% Shuttle Port module usage, and 100% Building Platform module usage. ...Wait, how did you get higher Pharmaceutic Lab module usage than either berryjon or me? MY PROGRESS THUS FAR
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Jul 11, 2021 19:51
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Station A: Pharmacy, building platform, and shuttle port all switched to Breakthrough research. Station B: Pharmacy and building platform switched to Breakthrough research. Station C: Add the modules pictured below. Pharmacy and shuttle port switched to Breakthrough research.  Pay off the new loan, buy a new station license, and construct: Station D: All modules on Breakthrough research.  Charges: Weather centre (I always read it as an "E" as well, I internally refer to it as the Ether centre in my head): 35.3 to match Fred. Resource platform: 27 Communications: 32 Remaining money goes into the bank. Eloi Wusk: "Were I one of the Martian colonists I would simply choose to not become sick."
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Jul 11, 2021 23:53
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Canadian Space Arm-and-Leg Agency - "Where you don't pay what we have to!" Turn 5 - Spring 1997 The Nameless Intern struggled. How the the fictional Director make this look so easy? "I must act! I must! But how?!? Is the writing on the wall?!?"  Note to Self: Make Achievement for earning over 1K in a turn. "Make a Buck: Earn over 1000 credits in a single turn." You two have both earned it. * * * 482.6 Credits On Hand, 733.4 Credits in Bank. 0/96.5 Credits on Loan. New Station (250) Command, Logistics (40 Credits) 3 Solar Collector (180 Credits) (+0/+0 /+300) 7 Weather Modules (119 Credits) (-14/-14/-35) 15 Pharmacy Modules (32 Credits) (-45/-45/-150) 8 Life B (144 Credits) (+64/+0 /-80) 3 Galley Gym (75 Credits) (+0/+72 /-30) 840 Credits Spent Solar Collectors: Charge 21 (All 7) Chem Labs: Charge 20 (All 7) Pharm Labs: Charge 47 (All 4 on CSS 01) Pharm Labs: Breakthrough Research (All 15 on CSS 02) Weather Module: Charge 35 (All 7) Shuttle Ports: Breakthrough Research (All)
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Jul 12, 2021 02:47
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 Decoy Badger's first station's settings are updated...  ...as are his second station's.  His third station is completed...  ...as is his fourth. (Good job jamming five Shuttle Port modules into a single station!) When I saw the size of his bank balance at the start of this turn, I expected him to do at least one of two things: do a bunch of new building, or switch a bunch of modules over to research. He did both. We'll see how that works out for him.  As for berryjon, I was able to make the setting changes to his station and set up commerce and research.  Unfortunately, I wasn't able to construct his second station. Why? Because he forgot the purchase price of those Short Connector and Long Connector modules. Once he's submitted a redesign, I'll build it. (These financials take into account that I've already purchased the new station license, but done no building.)
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Jul 13, 2021 18:12
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FredMSloniker posted:Unfortunately, I wasn't able to construct his second station. Why? Because he forgot the purchase price of those Short Connector and Long Connector modules. Once he's submitted a redesign, I'll build it. (These financials take into account that I've already purchased the new station license, but done no building.) .... ........ godamn it Here's the updated financials: 482.6 Credits On Hand, 733.4 Credits in Bank. 0/96.5 Credits on Loan. New Station (250) Command, Logistics (40 Credits) 1 Short Connector (5 Credits) 7 Long Connectors (56 Credits) 3 Solar Collector (180 Credits) (+0/+0 /+300) 7 Weather Modules (119 Credits) (-14/-14/-35) 15 Pharmacy Modules (32 Credits) (-45/-45/-150) 8 Life B (144 Credits) (+64/+0 /-80) 3 Galley Gym (75 Credits) (+0/+72 /-30) 906 Credits Spent Solar Collectors: Charge 21 (All 7) Chem Labs: Charge 20 (All 7) Pharm Labs: Charge 47 (All 4 on CSS 01) Pharm Labs: Breakthrough Research (All 15 on CSS 02) Weather Module: Charge 35 (All 7) Shuttle Ports: Breakthrough Research (All)
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Jul 14, 2021 00:59
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I've completed my station design tool! Or at least given up on adding any other features. Check it out here: https://nanonuq.github.io/eos-designer/eos-designer.html It requires Javascript to be enabled. Try importing and messing around with some of the following stations: My five-shuttle-port station: code:code:
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Jul 14, 2021 04:37
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berryjon posted:.... See, the thing is, if I'd still been able to build your station, even if it cost more than you expected, I'd do it and tell you what the difference is. But I can't build your station as designed. And the reason is this math error here, bold mine: berryjon posted:15 Pharmacy Modules (32 Credits each, for a total of 480 Credits) (-45/-45/-150) Sorry I didn't catch that sooner.
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Jul 14, 2021 18:37
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FredMSloniker posted:See, the thing is, if I'd still been able to build your station, even if it cost more than you expected, I'd do it and tell you what the difference is. But I can't build your station as designed. And the reason is this math error here, bold mine: Just drop 2 Pharmacy Modules then. I'll have to dip into the Loans to cover the cost, and I'll see what I look like next turn. That'll be 13 Modules set to Breakthrough Research.
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Jul 14, 2021 19:45
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berryjon posted:Just drop 2 Pharmacy Modules then.  Done. It is now Summer 1997. In module news:
I changed the algorithm I used to predict the market, which is why I underestimated Agriculture despite it going from rising to falling. Since it didn't rise as much as I predicted last turn, this turn I also expected it to underperform a naive prediction. Communications basically stalled, and Pharmaceutics didn't fall quite as far as I expected it to.  Unfortunately, while I got 100% usage on my Building Platform and Pharmaceutic Lab modules, I only got 62% usage of my Weather Center modules. Why did they underperform, especially when I was, if anything, pessimistic about the Agriculture market? I don't know. Based on the market model I've been using, at an Agriculture market value of 1449.7 and a Physics market of 217.2, I should have been able to charge 41.7, provided everyone else cooperated, and I only charged 35.3. And yes, berryjon charged only 35.0, but it shouldn't have done so much damage. In fact, I double-checked his data, and he only got 54%! (Decoy Badger got the same 62% I did.) Something strange is going on here. I did a bit of investigating. My Weather Center modules are on stations two (Transport Base and Science Lab Station), three (Construction Base and Science Lab Station), and four (Transport Base and Science Lab Station). They are not on station one, which is my Life Sciences Station, which supposedly boosts usage percentages. Berryjon, meanwhile, does have his on a Life Sciences Station, and Decoy Badger, who put them pretty much everywhere he could fit them, only put six on those of his stations that qualify as Life Sciences Stations. So that's not the explanation. What about quantity? I have 21 Weather Center modules. Berryjon has 7, and Decoy Badger has 22. Are people ignoring berryjon's cheap and cheerful option in favor of our enormous output? I don't know. Maybe. As for the overall poor performance... up until now, I've been calculating the demand for a module as the arithmetic average of the demand for its activities. (1449.7 + 217.2) / 2 = 833.45; divide by 200 and multiply by the base charge of 10 as the manual suggests, and that's 41.7. But there are other ways to take averages. A geometric average, for instance, works with multiplication; instead of adding the numbers together and dividing by the number of numbers, you multiply them together, then raise them to the power of one over the number of numbers. For two numbers, that means multiplying them together, then taking the square root; if you start with 2 and 32, you get 8, because 2 * a = 8 and 8 * a = 32 (with a = 4). So let's try that. math.sqrt(1449.7 * 217.2) ≈ 561.1. Divide that by 200 and multiply by 10, and you get 28.0. Would that have been a better amount to charge? Well, I'll try using geometric averages this turn and see what happens.  Commerce is only half the picture, though. I knew from my earlier experimentation that an enhancement from the Pharmaceutic Lab module is worth two Pharmaceutics and three Medical. As I am now at A22 Pharmaceutics and A33 Medical, I know that breakthroughs are worth six Pharmaceutics and nine Medical. In addition, I'm now at A50 Transport, which means those breakthroughs were worth ten points a piece, as expected.  I already mentioned that berryjon got terrible usage on his Weather Center modules. All of his other modules got 100% use, however, and his thirteen researching Pharmaceutic Lab modules produced seven breakthroughs, putting him at a total of A47 Pharmaceutics and A70 Medical. In addition, his Shuttle Port modules produced a breakthrough and an enhancement, putting him at a total of A43 Transport.  Decoy Badger had 62% usage of his Weather Center modules, as mentioned, but he also got 78% usage of his Communications modules and 100% usage of his Resource Platform modules. His Pharmaceutic Lab modules produced three breakthroughs and four enhancements, while his Shuttle Port modules produced one breakthrough and two enhancements, and his Building Platform modules produced seven breakthroughs, leaving his tech totals at A27 Pharmaceutics, A40 Medical, A15 Transport, and A70 Construction, leaping nearly halfway to his Construction goal in a single bound. I'm going to need to take some time planning my next move...
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Jul 15, 2021 00:06
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I'm worried that there's some hidden 'cap' in terms of commerce that can be utilized by any given module type across all players. That is, if everyone buys into one type of module for money-making, then the game responds by lowering this cap and encouraging diversification. It's a theory thought, and without being able to look at the code, I couldn't say what is what.
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Jul 15, 2021 00:52
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Wow, the RNG was very kind to me after the previous round's shellacking. Stations A, B, C, D: No changes New station E:  An exact copy of station D. All applicable modules on this new station are set to breakthrough research. Charges: Weather centre: 32 Communications: 32 Resource platform: 33 Eloi Wusk: "Having market problems? The fix is easy: simply just [ARTICLE REDACTED DUE TO SEC SETTLEMENT VIOLATION]!" Decoy Badger fucked around with this message at 02:20 on Jul 15, 2021 |
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Jul 15, 2021 02:05
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Well, that was easy. As I was preparing the previous update, I decided to take stock of how close everyone was to the goal, focusing on research. I suspect berryjon is out of the race, sadly; he hasn't even made any Building Platform modules yet, and he only has three Shuttle Port modules, which means he's got to devote this turn to building. Decoy Badger, on the other hand, is getting uncomfortably close to completing his research goals, especially with his shiny new Transport Base. Which means I need to up my research game. If I didn't build anything else and could afford to put everything into research mode, I'd expect to need just one turn to complete my Medical research, but three turns to finish my Transport and Construction research - and that's assuming nothing goes wrong.  So let's, hopefully, get the Transport and Construction research down to two turns. (The Solar Collector module (a) will produce a little income and (b) fits where four Station Power modules wouldn't.)  Switch over to Construction research here...  ...but put a few Pharmaceutic Lab modules back into commerce mode. Because I wasn't able to bring Transport research speed up as much as I wanted... so more Shuttles are going up next turn. (Weather Center modules charge 23.8; Solar Collector module charges 21.4; Pharmaceutic Lab modules charge 47.0; all research modules on breakthrough.) MY PROGRESS THUS FAR
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Jul 15, 2021 03:19
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FredMSloniker posted:As I was preparing the previous update, I decided to take stock of how close everyone was to the goal, focusing on research. I suspect berryjon is out of the race, sadly; he hasn't even made any Building Platform modules yet, and he only has three Shuttle Port modules, which means he's got to devote this turn to building. I agree with your assessment. My decision to fork off the best-choice of building a Pharmacy Base and skip to Transport could have worked, save I got greedy in the wrong way. I should have set them to commerce right off the bat. Losing 600+ Credits over three turns did me in, in the long run as I wasn't able to snowball as well as you guys could. I bow out of this scenario. Just set my stuff to Commerce at values of your discretion, pay off my debts, and stuff the rest into the bank. Let's see how much I have there by the time one of you two end this. Somewhere in the CSALA HQ: "How?!" the nameless Intern sobbed. "How did it all go wrong? Oh, why was the Director a figment of my imagination and not a real person! He coudl have done so much better!"
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Jul 15, 2021 03:59
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The real underdog solution here is to hold our space profits hostage with relentless ad campaigns. You do have a fully armed and operational pharma lab.
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Jul 15, 2021 04:34
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Decoy Badger posted:The real underdog solution here is to hold our space profits hostage with relentless ad campaigns. You do have a fully armed and operational pharma lab. I do, but to what point? My victory is an extreme long-shot, and me trying that would only force the two of you into your own competition to either balance me out or overcome. I'm not going to be a spoiler or a Kingmaker here.
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Jul 15, 2021 04:56
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berryjon posted:I do, but to what point? My victory is an extreme long-shot, and me trying that would only force the two of you into your own competition to either balance me out or overcome. I'm not going to be a spoiler or a Kingmaker here. Put profits aside in the face of helping the Mars colonists: split your income equally between your competitors. Or bank it all until turn X as an emergency fund.
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Jul 15, 2021 06:36
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Before I forget: in the process of producing this update, I also updated the second post with links to module images and some updates on my thoughts about module utility.habituallyred posted:Put profits aside in the face of helping the Mars colonists: split your income equally between your competitors. Or bank it all until turn X as an emergency fund. Thing is, Decoy Badger and I are both rapidly approaching the point where more money won't actually help. Sure, if I had a couple thousand more, I could get to the finish line a little bit faster, but at this point it's no more than a single turn's difference. At any rate, I adjust berryjon's settings as requested, and then we're into turn 7! In module update news:
Pharmaceutics continues writhing about, making me glad I won't have to rely on Pharmaceutic Lab modules for commerce any longer. On the other hand, I totally called Agriculture's sudden but inevitable betrayal.  Berryjon's loan limit is now 234.6. Per instructions, I put money in the bank and adjusted commerce settings.  Decoy Badger took a bath this turn. The primary reason is twofold. One is direct: he only got 42% usage on his Weather Center modules. (He, uh, might not have noticed I was only charging 23.8.  ) Combine that with 89% usage on Communications modules (Resource Platform modules got 100% usage, however), and his financials took a hit.But that was only one punch of the one-two combo. His EOS Bank loan limit dropped to 55.6. Presumably investors got nervous about his substantially reduced income. As he currently has a loan balance of 104.3, he's going to need to start by paying that down. I didn't know loan limits could go down as well as up. Good to know. News on the research side was also a bit rough. He got seven breakthroughs from his Pharmaceutic Lab modules and seven more from his Shuttle Port modules, but a mere three from his Building Platform modules, putting him at Pharmaceutics A74, Medical B10, Transport A85, and Construction B00. He's now unlocked the Fabrication Lab module.  Not shown: my loan limit of 143.4. I only got 74% usage on my Weather Center modules, but I did get 94% usage on my Pharmaceutic Lab modules and 100% usage on my Solar Collector module. I don't know what's up with the Weather Center module at this point; once this mission is over, I think I'll run some simulations and see what's going on once and for all. In research news, I got four breakthroughs from the Pharmaceutic Lab modules, five breakthroughs and an enhancement from the Shuttle Port modules, and a whopping twelve breakthroughs and an enhancement from the Building Platform modules. My total research scores are now Pharmaceutics A49 (not that I care about that), Medical A73, Transport B03, and Construction B23. The Construction research means I've unlocked the Fabrication Lab and Life LH2 modules, but I'm particularly excited about the Transport research, because it unlocks this:  Space Tug: "A small tug used to move payloads around space stations and worksites." Costs 23.0 credits to build, two shuttle tons to launch, and 1.5 credits to operate. Occupies two station tiles. Requires 1.0 GGym, 1.0 Life, and 10.0 Power to operate. Provides the Transport activity with a base charge of 19.0. Requires Transport B00 to build. Unless something terrible happens to the Transport market, this is the best commerce producer in the game. More importantly, it is head and shoulders above the Shuttle Port in almost every way: lower purchase cost, lower operating cost, lower support requirements, much smaller, and seven times more efficient at generating Transport research, which is essential for several missions. The only down side is that the only way to get it is to first agonize through Shuttle Port modules in research mode. While I'm already 2/3 of the way to my goal in Transport research, this will allow me to reach the finish line much more economically, both in terms of money and in terms of space - it'll be much easier to build a station that'll definitely get me the Transport research I need this turn.  I call it "I Peench". Between it and my Shuttle Port modules, I'm relatively confident I could complete all necessary research this turn - though somewhat less so after seeing Decoy Badger's results. However. If I ran everything in full research mode except for the Weather Center and Solar Collector modules, I predict my operating costs would eat my income and savings both and leave me having to take out an emergency loan. I certainly wouldn't have the roughly 1600 credits I'll need for two new station licenses and the bits and bobs for the Dry Dock and Cargoliner stations. That's why I initially predicted I'd need to launch on turn ten. But can I somehow balance research and commerce to get a launch sooner? Maybe. If I put all of my Pharmaceutic Lab modules into breakthrough research, I have very good odds of unlocking the Space Hospital cargo module this turn, and running all the Shuttle Port and Space Tug modules in breakthrough mode should get me to the Propulsion Unit module this turn as well. I don't feel comfortable with any fewer, though. That leaves the Building Platform modules; I'm very close to completing that research. Close enough, in fact, that I feel comfortable putting five of them into commerce mode. Unfortunately, I only predict that leaving me with about 160 credits next turn. That's not enough, so a turn eight launch is out. What about turn nine? Well, let's try this:  I'm going to go all in on Medical research. I don't predict needing the extra income from the Space Hospital cargo modules, but I'd like to test it at the very least.  However, I'm going to put five Shuttle Port modules into commerce mode...  ...as well as thirteen Building Platform modules. (Not shown: setting changes on stations four and five.) This should strike the balance I want between commerce and research. I'm charging 14.6 for the Weather Center modules, 20.9 for the Solar Collector module, 91.3 for the Shuttle Port modules, and 49.9 for the commercial Building Platform modules. All research modules are in breakthroughs mode. Your move, Decoy Badger. I have spent over five hours on this update. Most of that has been comparing numbers to other numbers in hopes of optimizing my move. I can't imagine playing this at all well back in the day.
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Jul 15, 2021 22:22
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I noticed the weather centre undercutting, but it's not like we have a sealed bid process, and you took on the prime mover handicap most other turns. It would get kind of silly to get into some weird rock-paper-scissors done entirely through edits. Pay off the loan, other credits in the bank. Station settings: C, D, E: Set pharmacy modules to commerce mode. No other changes. Charges: Pharmaceutics: 35 Weather centre: 16 Communications: 33 Resource platform: 37 Eloi Wusk: "We had so many weather centres that they solved weather, rendering themselves obsolete!"
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Jul 16, 2021 00:47
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Decoy Badger posted:Station settings:  Done,  done,  and done. It is now turn 8. In module news:
Biology suddenly kinked downward, while Pharmaceutics didn't rise as much as I expected it to (if you can say 'expected' of the way it's been behaving this mission). The percentage is perhaps misleading, though, given that the value is pretty low. As for Agriculture, it continues to plunge, but I was expecting it to plunge even more. Look forward to a market graph when all is said and done.  I had 53% usage on my Weather Center modules (seriously, I need to figure out where I'm going wrong on their pricing!), but 100% usage on all other commerce modules. As for research, I got 25 breakthroughs from my Pharmaceutic Lab modules (I would have been happy with 15!), four breakthroughs from my Shuttle Port modules (I was expecting three), and six breakthroughs from my Space Tug modules (five would have been good). I seem to have forgotten to put any Building Platform modules in research mode, though! So that's unfortunate. Still. My astonishing luck with Pharmaceutic Lab module research means I'm now at Pharmaceutics C16 and Medical D23, well beyond what I need for the Space Hospital cargo module. I'm also at Transport C03, unlocking the Propulsion Unit module. I started last turn at B03 and got ten total breakthroughs from Transport modules, so the Space Tug module produces as much research as the Shuttle Port module does. And while I'm still at Construction B23, that's just 27 more research I need, a mere three breakthroughs.  My loan limit's at 196.9 this turn, but I don't intend to take out another loan. Instead, I drop 250 credits for a new station license and build my Cargoliner. I can't officially make it a Cargoliner without a Dry Dock, but all the pieces are in place. At this point, I learn something important. Despite the claims of the game, the Space Hospital cargo modules are not producing (or consuming) any resources and cannot be set in commerce or research modes! They're strictly cargo. I had wondered about that (which is why I stuck a Station Power module on the design before even building it), and will update the info in the second post some time before my next update. Does this mean I also don't have to pay the operating cost for those modules? I hope so, because I'm committed now. That's a total of six hundred credits I may or may not have to pay. That said, I'm confident I'll be able to launch next turn. I only need 474 credits, including the new station license, to complete construction. I can throw all of my Pharmaceutic Lab (66.3), Shuttle Port (95.2), and Space Tug (24.4) modules into commerce alongside my Weather Center (12.7) and Solar Collector (20.5) modules, leaving only my Building Platforms in research mode - and if I set all 19 to enhancement mode, I can't imagine less than nine of them will pay out.  Berryjon is monstrously profitable.  And Decoy Badger is somewhat less than. He saw 47% usage on his Weather Center modules, 97% usage on his Communications modules, 90% usage on his Resource Platform modules, and 100% usage on his commerce-set Pharmaceutic Lab modules. His research-set Pharmaceutic Lab modules produced five breakthroughs and an enhancement, while his 13 Shuttle Port modules somehow produced only three breakthroughs between them, and his 13 Building Platform modules only produced five breakthroughs. The good news is, he has Medical B63 (so he can build the Space Hospital cargo module) and Construction B50 (so he can just barely build the Dry Dock cargo module). The bad news is, he only has Transport B15, so he can't yet build the Propulsion Unit module... and while I haven't done the math on whether he can generate enough money by next turn to build both the Cargoliner and the Dry Dock and launch them while still generating the necessary research (he has the Space Tug module available now, for what that's worth), he certainly can't launch this turn. Which means, knock on particle board, that at worst I can tie at this point.
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Jul 16, 2021 06:29
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Why is my Loan Limit at nearly 300? Weird how that's calculated. You've both made more money than I have on a turn-by-turn basis, but I don't think either of you have the same limit I do at this point. Man, the math decisions in the game engine are weird.
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Jul 16, 2021 12:44
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berryjon posted:Why is my Loan Limit at nearly 300? Weird how that's calculated. You've both made more money than I have on a turn-by-turn basis, but I don't think either of you have the same limit I do at this point. I went over the data from the previous turns, and it turns out it's really simple: your loan limit is 20% of last turn's profit, with a minimum of 50.
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Jul 16, 2021 20:33
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Station settings: A: Set all pharmacy modules and building platforms to commerce mode. Shuttle port stays in breakthrough mode. B: Set all pharmacy modules and building platforms to commerce mode. C, D, E: No changes. New Station F:  Set all space tugs (what an evocative name) to researching enhancements. Code for station F: code:I don't really understand how the cargoliner works. I hope this is valid under the game rules, otherwise do I need to add the other support trusses and space hospital first? Charges: Pharmaceutics: 38 Weather centre: 8 Building platform: 36 Communications: 32 Resource platform: 34 Eloi Wusk: "This momentous mission will include the first ever Yesla Roadster launched to Mars in a tug bay! Oh, and there's a space hospital too!" It's all up to the RNG now. What a tense race! Decoy Badger fucked around with this message at 17:06 on Jul 17, 2021 |
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Jul 17, 2021 16:54
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  Decoy Badger changes station settings...  ...and builds anew. To answer your question about the Cargoliner, yes, that should work. It is now turn 9. In module news... there's no new module news! Here's the previous turns' module news for reference.
Once the game is over, I'm going to run a few tests on market demand; one of them will be to check if I can improve my market prediction function, and the other will be to get a better handle on what to charge for modules given specific demand. I really need to figure out what's behind Weather Center module underperformance.  Speaking of, Decoy Badger, don't think I didn't notice you severely undercutting my Weather Center modules! I only got 36% usage on mine, and only 31% on my Pharmaceutic Lab modules (whoops, didn't notice that). However, I got one breakthrough and fourteen enhancements from my Building Platform modules, putting me at Construction B68. And I only needed 474 credits to do this:  I'm kind of sad stars don't drift buy when you let it sit for a moment like they do for modular stations.  With that, I switch over to station seven and go to the Tools menu...  ...where I choose the option to view the station's class...  ...choose "New Class"...  ...move down, and choose Cargoliner. I see that I have 20 Fuel and 10 GWell. I assume that I need to expend GWell's worth of Fuel to get underway; we'll see if that's true.  Returning to the Tools menu, I see the menu options have changed. "Planet" is now available, so I choose it.  This gives me a menu of places I can go in Earth's sphere of influence. A single press of "New Planet" later...  ...and I'm at the Mars SoI. I go up and choose Mars itself.  The "Planet" option is now gone. So I choose the station info option again...  ...and see that the travel time to Mars is one year. That means that, if I hadn't launched by turn 10, I wouldn't have gotten there in time. Fortunately I'm three months ahead of the deadline. (Note to self: compile a list of travel times to various places.)  Berryjon keeps doing his thing.  Decoy Badger got 70% usage on his Weather Center modules, 100% usage on his Communications modules, 98% usage on his Resource Platform modules, 100% usage on his Pharmaceutic Lab modules, and 100% usage on his Building Platform modules. More importantly, he got four breakthroughs and an enhancement from his Shuttle Port modules, plus another four enhancements from his Space Tug modules... which puts him at Transport B68. He's still in the race.  I take the liberty of building him his own Dry Dock station. I assume he has his own ideas about Cargoliner design, though. He's got 837.9 cash on hand and a loan of 249.6 to work with.  You might think that, at this point, I could sit back and relax for four turns. But it turns out there's a secondary score. I may not be able to beat Decoy Badger to Mars, but I'm pretty confident I can beat him at earning tech points. However, I'm willing to call it a tie if he is; frankly, not miserably losing feels like a win at this point. So. Decoy Badger. Do you want me to just put everything into commerce with a common set of charges and (once you've built and launched your Cargoliner) just advance the turn four times? Or do you want to continue to play this out?
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Jul 17, 2021 19:56
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As I was typing the final words of that update, I was seized with a moment of dread about something Decoy Badger might try; I went back to my end-of-turn turn 8 save and tried bolting something on to my Cargoliner before sending it off. No, having two Propulsion Unit modules on your Cargoliner doesn't make you go any faster. Whew.
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Jul 17, 2021 20:18
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Travel times from Earth to other planets vary greatly in real life depending on when you go. I don't know if EOS models this. What I can tell you is that, with a Spring 1998 launch, travel time from Low Earth Orbit to various locations is:
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Jul 17, 2021 21:02
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Stations: Station F additions:  code:I'm fine with a tie, just set everything to commerce and click on ahead. Eloi Wusk: "Now we can finally rescue all those poor space kids trapped in the space cave, all thanks to my brilliant ideas!" Afterthoughts: I'm surprised that the Weather Center still was under capacity below even the base charge! I set everything as low as I can to reduce the variability of expected returns - as you can see I squeaked it in with respect to cash. Same thing with research, my shuttle ports averaged 3.32 research per port per turn in breakthrough mode which would have been okay if the weather market didn't collapse. Most of my time last turn was spent figuring out how many space tugs I could afford while still being able to afford everything else. The tech points thing is interesting, it looks like 7 points for reaching B, 6 for C, 4 for D? My strategy was pretty simple, after I got the lesson battered into my head last round: Grow large, then go all in on research. Then I learned that you can only build one new station a turn, and the strategy changed to: "Grow large enough that I can build a new station each turn, then go all in on research." Since shuttle ports are the least efficient (per unit area) research producers, I figured that upon ~800 profit each turn with all research running I could build a new shuttle research station each turn without running out of money. Then I could switch the luckiest research modules back to commerce to build the final cargoliner. The weather market collapse put me a turn behind plan, but frankly I had no idea what to expect research-wise. Decoy Badger fucked around with this message at 21:27 on Jul 17, 2021 |
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Jul 17, 2021 21:25
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Voyager 2 had just flown by Uranus in 1986, so a lot of the data wasn't fully analyzed yet, but Miranda photo data was reanalyzed in 2016 and determined to have the highest cliffs in the solar system - at 20 km tall, 12 times deeper than the Grand Canyon. Miranda is a pretty geologically crazy place in general, to the point that one (kind of outdated) hypothesis is that it was smashed apart by some monstrous collision, then haphazardly reassembled. The "river beds" are now considered to be coronae - same as found on Mercury, except made of ice.
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Jul 17, 2021 21:41
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Alright, so Achievement Time! We all earned this one this mission, but Fred got it last mission. Woo-hoo! Onward to 5K!  And this is for making the grade and saving those poor, sick, Martians.
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Jul 17, 2021 22:17
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 After putting everyone's modules into commerce mode, setting appropriate prices, completing Decoy Badger's Cargoliner, and launching it, I hit next turn. The first thing I see is a new news item! (The second news item says the same about my Dry Dock station.) I'm not going to report the market as I advance turns, but I am making note of its values for later analysis. With that in mind, I'm sharing this for later review:
 Also on turn 13, Decoy Badger and I reach Mars with our Cargoliners. (It looks like I was correct about fuel usage's relation to the gravity well.) I convert them back to modular stations, then go to deliver - and am told that the Cargoliner can't find the target station. Which is what I suspected would happen.  What I have to do is buy a new station license, change the new station's class to Space Hospital and its orbit to Mars, then go back to the Cargoliner and deliver the modules.  You deliver by selecting each module from the building screen and changing its usage from "cargo" to "deliver", much as you'd set modules to commerce or research. This detaches the cargo module from the Cargoliner.  And just like that, my Space Hospital is complete! I can convert the Cargoliner station back to a Cargoliner and send it somewhere else. For future reference, the travel times from Mars are:
1.2..3...4.5.6.7.8...9 So that's good to know.  I also learned something interesting here. Once the Space Hospital modules have reached their destination, they become active! In fact, they're active both in commerce and in research! So that puts them back on the menu for construction in other scenarios. Unfortunately, the research they generate is useless for anything but tech points, but as previously noted, tech points are a secondary score element. Curiously, the initial charge is set to 160, when manual and game both say 100 is the base charge. I'm gonna charge 259.7 and see what happens.  Here's the sprue of Decoy Badger's Cargoliner. In a longer mission, he could fly it back to earth, add more cargo modules, and send it out again.  Turn 14 does not put up the victory screen, to my surprise, and when I go to the "Who's Winning" menu option, it doesn't declare a winner. So I guess they give you the full 14 turns to... what, send multiple hospitals? Grind out one more turn of tech points? At any rate, I only bother to record market data and put money into savings; I can't be bothered to adjust module charges.  Though this is a very pretty picture.  This, however, is baffling. Do tech points not count in this mission, and it won't declare a winner if there's a draw? Was there some dumb hidden condition we missed? Whatever. I'm calling this a shared win with Decoy Badger.  My financials at the end.  Berryjon's.  And Decoy Badger's. This mission has been a lot of fun! And I'm not done posting about it. I'm going to go through my decision-making process throughout the mission in a later post, as well as offer up some graphs and try to figure out what the deal is with
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Jul 18, 2021 18:48
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So... I lost. Horribly. I figured this was the case once the end of Round one happened. The goal of the scenario is to get the Mars Space Hospital Built, and doing so requires large amounts of finances to build everything, and then research several things to build more things all on a time limit. Going into turn 1, Fred and I had the same idea, and that was that we both needed to start in on Pharmacy Stations. You see, we both recognized that with the way the market was going, the Pharmacy Module would produce good returns on our money, as well as being a good setup for later turns with research. Fred - correctly - went all in on this, while my first attempt had me look at a different path. Namely, that I would build a half-Pharmacy station, and a half-Transport Station to work in tandem in the early turns. Except, as it turns out, you can only have one station on your first turn, so instead of optimizing a Pharmacy Station, I looked at the numbers and decided on building a Transportation Station first, so that I could start research on the Propulsion Unit. That was my fatal mistake. The design of the station was good enough, but I should have set the Shuttle Ports to commerce. While not as good at financial income as the Pharmacy, doing this shorted myself 200+ Credits per turn, which prevented me from getting the second station up and running in time with the others, which I would have made into my Pharmacy station. After that, things just snowballed. I was behind on money, and that meant that Fred and then Decoy were both able to leap ahead of me in research. I saw the writing on the wall, and I knew exactly where and when I screwed up was. It happens. It's a lesson learned. Let's build a Moon Colony next! And this time, Fred, I'm back in the game. BWAHAHAHAHAHAH!
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Jul 18, 2021 21:13
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berryjon posted:Let's build a Moon Colony next! And this time, Fred, I'm back in the game. The game even takes place in the proper decade! 
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Jul 19, 2021 00:58
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Market History: Mars Rescue Here's the overview look at the markets, with a dotted line for the geometric mean (that multiplicative average I talked about a few updates back). As you can see, the market as a whole rose steadily for the first several turns, then fell into a slump it hadn't recovered from before the end of the mission. As you can also see, looking at the market as a whole hides a multitude of sins. Let's look at four markets in particular.  The Energy market was exceptionally stable. Sadly, that stability was largely downward, but it serves as a useful control. The blue line is a naive prediction (i.e., 'if it went up 10% this turn, it'll go up 10% next turn'). The red line is what I was using closer to the end of the mission; if I was predicting the market would go up 10% and it goes up 5%, this turn predict that it won't go up at all. Since the blue line doesn't need as much data, it starts at turn 2, while the red line only starts at turn 3. Both methods were caught equally off guard by the graph flattening on turn 3. The way the reacted, though, is quite different. Since the demand from turn 2 to turn 3 still went up a bit, the naive prediction was that it would go up a bit more. When it instead started to fall on turn 4, though, the naive prediction was that it would continue to fall, which it did on turn 5. Meanwhile, the two-turn prediction predicted that, if the market had started turning down on turn 3, it'd turn down even more on turn 4. It undershot on that turn, but since the line was still curving downward, it again underestimated on turn 5. By then the line had straightened out, and it got with the program.  Here's one of the harder markets to predict. It went up one turn, then immediately dropped. You can see that the naive prediction was expecting a second huge jump up and caught caught off guard, but quickly realigned to the market. The two-turn prediction saw 'went up a lot, went down a little' and assumed the next step would be 'went down a lot', undershooting, but it joined the yellow line as well. Then the market went higgledy-piggledy in the last few turns. Note that the two-turn prediction has higher highs and lower lows than the naive prediction as it tries to anticipate trends that don't happen.  On the other hand, when a trend does happen, two-turn prediction catches it. See how the Agriculture market's dramatic plunge is much more closely matched by the two-turn prediction than the naive prediction. It's not perfect, but except for turn eight, it's a hell of a lot closer.  And here's Medical demand. Compare and contrast how the two models react to the sudden fluctuation in the market. Does this explain what was happening with the module usages? I don't think so. It certainly didn't help, but I don't think it can explain (say) the Weather Center modules, which dramatically underperformed expectations for several turns near the end. To answer that question, I'm going to need to try to eliminate some variables and isolate the effects of various things on module usage. That's going to take a while, though. For now, let's talk strategy. For my first move, I posted this plan of action: FredMSloniker posted:
I used a combination of high- and low-tech to come up with these designs. I have several Lua modules I've written for the LP, one of which contains all pertinent information about the station modules; I have a program that looks over my current station builds and plans for future stations and tells me what I can expect to spend, what my current operating expenses are, and whether any of my stations will be short vital resources. Another program starts sticking a specific module onto a station design one at a time and adds support modules as necessary, letting me know how many of each support module I'll need for each step along the way. It's far from perfect - it only understands station tiles, not actual layouts - but by giving it additional information, I can help it focus on the physically possible. As for the low-tech, well... graph paper and pencil. I went through several iterations of the design for my second station, running into problems like 'not enough room for Weather Center modules' and 'not enough room for support modules' and 'accidentally made two half-stations that don't actually connect' before I finally settled on a design. I designed the skeleton of my third station, put the Weather Center modules on, then did the math to determine how many Building Platform modules I could support and still have room for the support modules, then drew in an aesthetically pleasing arrangement of the required modules. There were lots of scribbled notes and numbers mixed in with the programming. I didn't see the weakness in berryjon's position right away, and the chaotic build of Decoy Badger's first station, plus his poor performance in the "Dry Dock" mission, blinded me to his good decisions (which I'll let him talk about if he wants). In fact, it wasn't until turn 3 that I thought of the game as anything but simultaneously single-player. By the time I advanced to turn 2, I'd finished the design of what would become my first Transport research station. At the time, I was grossly overconfident about my ability to generate research; the design included only three Shuttle Port modules and reserved space and support for nine Space Tug modules. I'd also completed a design for the Cargoliner, which was easy enough, and for my Construction research station. At the time, though, I had the idea that I'd be building the Cargoliner as my third station to take advance of unlocking the Space Tug module - again, seriously overestimating my ability to create Transport research. Turn 3 is when I realized just how much money you two could cost me by undercutting my pricing. I got a little, shall we say, heated under the collar, but cooler heads prevailed. Not that it mattered much, as the Pharmaceutics market chose the very next turn to tank. Turn 4 is also when I realized that I was being, shall we say, optimistic about producing the Transport research in a timely manner. I hastily replaced the space I'd saved in my second station for Space Tug modules with a fourth Shuttle Port module and planned a second Transport research station. However, I came to this realization after starting construction on station three, the Building Platform station, so I had to settle for making the new station #4. I also pushed back Cargoliner construction - again - as I needed the income from the Pharmaceutic Lab modules to fund research and expansion. If I were doing it again, I might have started with the Building Platform modules so I could get the Pharmaceutic Lab modules into research right away - but it turns out that would have been a bad idea, since Space Hospital cargo modules, which I was hoping to get Big Bucks from, don't actually produce Big Bucks until delivered. So I dodged a bullet there. I started messing around with commerce and research settings in turn 5, but it wasn't until turn 6 that I sat down and worked out how much research I could expect to generate in a turn with both my current build and my planned build and confirmed just how much of a weakest link my Transport research was. After a lot of math (seriously, I spent hours calculating the effects of various settings and/or writing programs to calculate the effects of various settings), I realized I'd need a third Transport research station to meet my goals. I also worked out a plan to get the money and the research I'd need together by turn 9 - but only just, and dependent on at least average luck all around. Not wanting to succumb to hubris, I decided to play it safe and declare a launch on turn 10. Turn 7 was a lucky turn for me. My Shuttle Port modules produced above-average results, pushing my Transport research high enough that I could now build Space Tug modules, and my Building Platform modules produced amazing results, leaving me just three breakthroughs away from meeting my goal. I immediately ditched my design for the upcoming Transport research station and built one that I predicted would have a 99% chance of generating the necessary Transport research in two turns. (Admittedly, this was based on the highly scientific metric 'modules produce breakthroughs about half the time'.) I also flipped most of my modules into commerce mode to pay for my Pharmaceutic Lab modules to go flat out on research; I knew I could get the Construction research I needed in a single turn, but I wasn't totally confident I could get the Medical research in two. I also needed to lay away money for construction. A lot more math went into these plans; I wanted desperately to win, or at the very least not lose. On turn 8, I realized I'd accidentally set all of my Building Platform modules to commerce, so I hadn't actually completed the Construction research. However, 25 of my 29 Pharmaceutic Lab modules produced breakthroughs - 15 would be slightly above average by my rule of thumb - which meant I was suddenly done with the Medical research I needed. I also performed slightly above expectations on Transport research, but even if I hadn't, realizing I wouldn't need much more money to complete my objectives, I deliberately overinvested in Transport research. With two out of three key researches complete, I ran all of my Building Platform modules in enhancements mode, accepting a guaranteed smaller amount of research so as to not risk a possible tiny amount of research, and built the Cargoliner station and cargo. I also moved a bunch of modules to commerce now that I no longer needed their research. Turn 9 wound up being really simple. I got the research I needed and had a bunch of money. I bought a new station and made a Dry Dock, then converted the Cargoliner station into a Cargoliner and launched it to Mars. Per my agreement with Decoy Badger, I threw all my stuff into commerce mode and generated more data to analyze over the following turns as we delivered our respective space hospitals. So now those Martians can choose between Wusk's station, which is hopefully staffed with actually competent people, or mine, which is hopefully not staffed with the sort of people who would start Third Impact. So what did I learn from all this? Well, a number of things about the game, with more to come when I analyze the tapes, but more importantly, I learned:
Oh, and: Rappaport posted:The game even takes place in the proper decade! There's a potential achievement: complete a Fuel Depot or Ore/Mine on the Moon in Fall 1999.  Technically, Moonbase Alpha's construction was completed in 1997, but I don't think it's possible to do all the necessary research in time.
FredMSloniker fucked around with this message at 16:18 on Jul 19, 2021 |
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Jul 19, 2021 04:57
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If there's one thing this game reinforces, it's that short-term profit/exponential growth is everything. Base charges for modules give you 30%+ growth - enough to double your capital every three turns. With this round having a general bull market, that was cut down to doubling every two turns. Doing anything that slowed down growth - like research - was punished very heavily if it didn't offer a 40%+ rate of return, because in two turns someone else could complete that research in half the time with double the assets and 2/3rds the variance. This also means that the early game is easy to get started: just start by making stations that you think will make money, and worry about the research later. Anyways, let's do the lunar mission!
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Jul 20, 2021 04:25
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 Meet Commerce Station Alpha. You may recall I made a similar station after mission two to test the effectiveness of module research. This time, I flipped the equation; I had one of each type of activity module set to commerce, plus a bunch of support modules to meet their needs. (I didn't want to muddy the waters with more than one Solar Collector module, so this time around I used Station Power modules.) I recorded the market's behavior over the 14 turns of the scenario, the charges I set for modules, and the resulting usage percentages. My formula for charges was this: using the two-turn model for predicting the market, I charged 10% more of what my current module demand model would suggest. I deliberately overcharged because having a module get 100% usage doesn't tell me as much as one that gets less than that. I'm currently trying to fit a model to the data I collected, but I figured you'd want to know I was still doing stuff.
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Jul 20, 2021 06:27
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LP status update: analyzing the data I've collected has proved beyond my ability. I'm doing things: one, I'm posting a call for help in another thread, and two, I'm looking to collect a data set with even more constrained variables. I'm not doing this to get any sort of advantage; I'll be happy to share the data generated. I'm just less than pleased with the quality of the data I'm generating.
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Jul 20, 2021 22:59
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I think that this LP probably now qualifies as the single most informational thread in our history. We've spend more words and effort on cracking this game than in playing it!
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Jul 21, 2021 00:14
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I'll start with the easier one: Usage vs demand Cribbing from the dataset Fred posted in the stats thread. Relative charge = charge multiplier / (demand / 200) Usage = (-1.44 (relative charge) + 2.44)*100 (in the thread, this would be a * h / d + b = u) Plot relative charge against usage and you'll instantly see the relationship. It's not absolutely perfect but r^2 = 0.99 which is pretty drat close. Market prediction I found the best way to model it is as a time series. There are a few hidden factors: The 2nd derivative impulse b (0-1.5ish?), 2nd derivative decay factor x (>1, maybe 4-8?), and a binary trigger (0/1). In most turns, T(n) = T(n-1) * (1 + a), where a is the relative change (change/last turn's value). So if it went up 10% in turn 1, it will go up 10% in turn 2. If the binary trigger is activated (and there doesn't seem to be any pattern to why/how this happens, except that it can't be activated less than 4 turns apart): a is decreased or increased by b, where the sign of b is opposite to the last turn's change. Since a is relative change i.e. first derivative, b is the second derivative. On the next turn, a is decreased or increased by b/x, which is the new b. Since x>1 (and seems to be in the range of 4-8) this means that b is decaying exponentially. Within 2-4 turns b is effectively back to 0 so a is consistent between turns again, and the market continues steadily moving until the next trigger. So the actual formula is T(n) = T(n-1) * (1 + a + b(n)), where b(n) = b(n-1)/x. Oh, and if the trigger is activated twice then b(n) resets to b(0). This explains why: - Markets don't crash instantly, they hit a peak and float a bit in transition before descending - that's when a is roughly equal to b - A rising market and falling market is smooth in both directions - Rising and falling markets always have a positive second derivative, but transitional markets are negative - Some markets don't fall but instead rise more slowly - a>2b in this case - The relative increase isn't mirrored by the relative decrease after a transition. It's not perfect, it breaks down on very high runs, but it mostly works. I haven't figured out if the decay function is constant for all markets or varies randomly. Decoy Badger fucked around with this message at 03:19 on Jul 21, 2021 |
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Jul 21, 2021 03:15
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