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lobster shirt
Jun 14, 2021

been posted in the other africa thread, so putting it here: mekelle (capital of tigray) appears to have fallen to the tplf.

here is reuters via msn: https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/mekelle-under-our-control-spokesperson-for-tigrays-former-rulers-says/ar-AALyeI6

here is the nyt if anyone has an account: https://www.nytimes.com/2021/06/28/world/asia/tigray-mekelle-ethiopia-retreat.html

the federal government has declared a unilateral casefire: https://apnews.com/article/ethiopia-tigray-cease-fire-2745f0941cafcfa8fbe4c9f945f0925d

i remember reading somewhere that election results were supposed to be released today, that is definitely not happening (it's after 10 pm local time).

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Bilirubin
Feb 16, 2014

The sanctioned action is to CHUG


Should we combine these threads?

lobster shirt
Jun 14, 2021

well the other africa thread is mideast + africa, this one could stand on its own maybe?

Yossarian-22
Oct 26, 2014

I feel like Africa gets swallowed up by ME talk in the other thread unless there's a war happening. I want this to stand on its own. Maybe the other thread could be MENA (Middle East+North Africa) and this thread could be for the rest of the continent

Bilirubin
Feb 16, 2014

The sanctioned action is to CHUG


fair enough! Mideast definitely has its content generation.

Perhaps Mideast-North Africa and Subsaharan Africa with Ethiopia/Sudan/Eritreat tossed in?

Whatevs, will keep posting here

Yossarian-22
Oct 26, 2014

Yeah tbh I think we can mostly just play it by ear. All I can say is that I probably won't be posting Egypt/Libya news here

Yossarian-22
Oct 26, 2014

Pro-democracy protests in Swaziland/eSwatini. Mostly in rural areas. Tear gas fired on crowds. https://allafrica.com/stories/202106280905.html

Interesting fact: Sobhuza II of Swaziland, the current monarch's father, reigned from 1899 to 1982. You have to go back millennia to find a monarch anywhere in the world who ruled for a longer period of time than that. Ten years longer than the Sun King himself!

The current dude's mom was painted by Andy Warhol.

Yossarian-22 has issued a correction as of 21:56 on Jun 28, 2021

Yossarian-22
Oct 26, 2014

I just learned that eSwatini is the only remaining absolute monarchy in Africa. A lot of civil servants went on strike in 2019 due to budget cuts and the monarch's comparatively luxurious lifestyle. The current protests are anti-monarchy. https://www.news24.com/news24/africa/news/eswatini-youth-stage-rare-rural-protest-against-monarchy-20210620

Protests this year have been happening since May when a student was reportedly killed by police.

Other eSwatini facts: entire economy basically depends on trade with South Africa. The king has accused protestors of being agents provocateur from SA because the country wants eSwatini to develop democracy and "fix its budget" in exchange for loans. Also, sugar, the main export, has dried up due to climate change. Interestingly enough, eSwatini is also the only African country that still recognizes Taiwan instead of China.

Yossarian-22 has issued a correction as of 21:57 on Jun 28, 2021

Atrocious Joe
Sep 2, 2011

https://twitter.com/daddyhope/status/1409617063660904455?s=20
https://twitter.com/SABCNews/status/1409632863687876609?s=20

i say swears online
Mar 4, 2005

the perfect thread to continue my deep dive into the nigerian comedy scene

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_18yVFekzw8

the NTA is the nigerian television authority, it's a free but lovely channel that mostly shows low-budget historical dramas

i say swears online
Mar 4, 2005


well that's eventful, wow

ded redd
Aug 1, 2010


mates if this ends in an actual instance of modern day regicide

thread's open for business :whatup:

Nonsense
Jan 26, 2007

That ending in regicide would be funny, so the reality is he probably escaped to South Africa and stole somebody's house.

shirts and skins
Jun 25, 2007

Good morning!
Came here to ask tf is going on in Tigray

I know the TPLF is made of fighters (and descendents thereof) from a tough as nails Maoist-style background, but I never would figure them to beat a coordinated Ethiopian/Eritrean attack. What gives? Did the TPLF legit win in those hills, or did Ahmed get cold feet due to looming famine?

i say swears online
Mar 4, 2005

shirts and skins posted:

Came here to ask tf is going on in Tigray

I know the TPLF is made of fighters (and descendents thereof) from a tough as nails Maoist-style background, but I never would figure them to beat a coordinated Ethiopian/Eritrean attack. What gives? Did the TPLF legit win in those hills, or did Ahmed get cold feet due to looming famine?

the tplf did the heavy lifting in the fight against the dictatorship that fell in '91, and a tigrayan was president/prime minister from that point until he died in 2012. tigray as a region has been out of power since 2018 and things are coming to a head. they know the area, have local popular support, have very experienced leadership, and i don't know for sure but i have a feeling they kept some primo military hardware from the 90s and 2000s

Atrocious Joe
Sep 2, 2011

https://twitter.com/SecBlinken/status/1409142392326963203?s=20
https://twitter.com/CohenOnAfrica/status/1409606219837366277?s=20

i say swears online
Mar 4, 2005

https://jamestown.org/program/tigray-defense-forces-resist-ethiopian-army-offensive-as-sudan-eritrea-and-ethnic-militias-enter-the-fray/

informative (and prescient!) article on battle strategy from a few weeks ago

shirts and skins
Jun 25, 2007

Good morning!

i say swears online posted:

the tplf did the heavy lifting in the fight against the dictatorship that fell in '91, and a tigrayan was president/prime minister from that point until he died in 2012. tigray as a region has been out of power since 2018 and things are coming to a head. they know the area, have local popular support, have very experienced leadership, and i don't know for sure but i have a feeling they kept some primo military hardware from the 90s and 2000s

It all makes sense, sure. Just shocking to see in practice when ENDF is bringing tanks and artillery and the Eritreans are reportedly deploying UAE-style drones. Amazing what good organization and leadership can do I guess. Maybe it was ominous when the TPLF melted away from Mekelle and basically said



I suppose we hear many more details in the days to come.

E.


This fills in some really interesting details, thanks!

shirts and skins has issued a correction as of 01:19 on Jun 29, 2021

lobster shirt
Jun 14, 2021

it's hard (for me, a goon sitting in the us) to say for sure what happened but insurgent groups can take and hold ground, especially in a situation like tigray where control of the hinterlands is in insurgent hands. in this case because the federal army (and eritrean allies, and i believe allied ethnic militias were in the mix too) were brutalizing civilians. but if you can cut off an isolated army, they don't have a ton of options.

or you can just straight up attack. in recent african history albeit far away from the current conflict, the al sunnah guys in mozambique did a similar thing in palma - take control of the surrounding area and then move into the town. they did that in mocimboa da praia as well but unlike in palma they still hold that town.

so it's very possible that ethiopian forces saw themselves in an untenable position and retreated. the unilateral ceasefire also indicates that to me, doesn't seem like something you would declare if you were winning.

Yossarian-22
Oct 26, 2014

Office Pig posted:

mates if this ends in an actual instance of modern day regicide

thread's open for business :whatup:

My posting powers are unrivaled

Yossarian-22
Oct 26, 2014

Shows you how much ideology can mean nothing when you have the U.S. more friendly to the lefties in TBLF than Ethiopia privatizer in chief Abiy Ahmed. I guess that's why the U.S. backs the YPG as well

Obvious to me that Sudan backs the TBLF because of the dam dispute

Yossarian-22 has issued a correction as of 02:19 on Jun 29, 2021

Atrocious Joe
Sep 2, 2011

Ethiopia under Meles Zenawi invaded Somalia to overthrow an Islamic movement that was consolidating control. This was partly to gain favor with the US which in 2006 was still in it's War on Terror fever.

The TPLF governed Ethiopia as a US ally, a role Abiy tried to continue.

Yossarian-22
Oct 26, 2014

Former president Laurent Gbagbo has returned to Ivory Coast after being acquitted of crimes in the ICC. Big crowds celebrated. https://www.africanews.com/2021/06/28/crowds-cheer-laurent-gbagbo-as-he-returns-to-home-village/

I will now do some basic research on Ivory Coast and post my findings.

mcclay
Jul 8, 2013

Oh dear oh gosh oh darn
Soiled Meat
What are the TPLF ideologically anyways? Someone mentioned that they were Maoists in the past, but are they still that?

Yossarian-22
Oct 26, 2014

First the good news about Gbagbo.

The good news is he has a background as a socialist and student union leader, and has long been an opponent of
Françafrique. What is Francafrique? This is the term for France's continued quasi-imperialist role in West Africa. The first president of Cote d'Ivoire/Ivory Coast was Félix Houphouët-Boigny, a dude who literally served in French parliament before he became the country's first president "post-independence." This dude loving sucked. He aided virtually every single spook mission in Africa from the overthrow of Kwame Nkrumah in Ghana, to the support of anti-communist forces in Angola, and the overthrow of Thomas Sankara in Burkina Faso. The country had the highest economic growth rate in West Africa, because the country allowed in tons of foreign capital, and thus other Africans flocked to the cocoa/coffee plantations and commodity prices were a bonanza (it's the biggest exporter of chocolate in the world and third for coffee). The country now has one of the highest immigrant populations in the world at 25% as a result of these boom times. (That's important to keep in mind for my next post.)

However, once commodity prices went down, so did the entire economy. The profits that foreign capitalists made were not reinvested. Absolute poverty rose from 11% in 1978 to 31% in 1993. Boigny turned out to own 11 billion dollars. Gbagbo, the leading the charge of the student union movement, ran unsuccessfully against Boigny in 1990. After Boigny stepped down in the 1990s, a right-wing xenophobe took over. In 2000, a military coup happens, and street movements force an election, and Gbagbo wins. He rules the country until 2010, when Boigny's former prime minister and IMF banker shithead Alassane Ouattara beats him in an internationally supervised election 54-46%. Gbagbo claims France/the UN rigged it for Ouattara, civil war, France blatantly forces Gbagbo out of the country as they mysteriously make a phone call to Ouattara within minutes of Gbagbo's arrest, Gbagbo tried by ICC for war crimes, acquitted, and here we are. Should also be noted that in the civil war, thousands died, 100,000s flee to Liberia (where some Gbagbo partisans launch attacks from).

It should be noted that France still owns the main water/electricity supplies, the main TV network, and the biggest phone company in Ivory Coast.

Yossarian-22 has issued a correction as of 06:06 on Jun 29, 2021

Yossarian-22
Oct 26, 2014

The bad news about Gbagbo.

He is not only anti-foreign vis-a-vis French influence but also with immigrants and migrants. He adopted his very right-wing predecessor's tendency of "Ivoirité" nationalism and proclaimed that true Ivorians should reclaim the rich land that was taken over by immigrants during the "miracle" times of high immigration/internal migration and foreign investment. Muslim northerners, Malians, Burkinabé, Liberians, and Guineans all suffered heavy persecution under his reign, and this only got worse when many backed Ouattara's (himself a Burkinabe barred from running in previous elections) failed coup/takeover of the Northern half of the country in 2002. Notably, Gbagbo attacked and killed French peacekeepers in the North of the country, and they likely never forgave him for that. He also ran a militia called Young Patriots that raped/murdered foreigners and confiscated their identity papers.

Anyway, our IMF banker friend Ouattara, on the opposite end of an election and two civil wars against Gbagbo, invited Gbagbo back to the country after his acquittal. Ouattara won 95% of the vote shortly thereafter and Gbagbo called it a "disaster" for the country. He was released with several stipulations though so who knows if he has plans to make a big splash or not. His supporters have already had tear gas fired on them by French forces.

Yossarian-22 has issued a correction as of 06:04 on Jun 29, 2021

i say swears online
Mar 4, 2005

mcclay posted:

What are the TPLF ideologically anyways? Someone mentioned that they were Maoists in the past, but are they still that?

they had the unfortunate circumstance of winning their revolution within months of the USSR crumbling, so when in power they scrubbed the extreme left stuff and committed to multiparty democracy with an emphasis on local control and mixed economy. their wiki today lists hoxhaism as a past ideology so lol that rules

Atrocious Joe
Sep 2, 2011

The TPLF denounced the USSR when they were rebels as well. Which makes sense considering the Ethiopian government was supplied by the USSR.

mila kunis
Jun 10, 2011
what was the deal with the derg anyway. was it one of those things that started ok but then went off the rails like romania

lobster shirt
Jun 14, 2021

Yossarian-22 posted:

Former president Laurent Gbagbo has returned to Ivory Coast after being acquitted of crimes in the ICC. Big crowds celebrated. https://www.africanews.com/2021/06/28/crowds-cheer-laurent-gbagbo-as-he-returns-to-home-village/

I will now do some basic research on Ivory Coast and post my findings.

his return was very fraught since the gbagbo-outtara rivalry is still very politically salient, especially since the election last year. outtara was supposed to step down and let his chosen successor run in his place, but, he died a few months before the election (not of covid, shockingly). then outtara felt like he had to run in order to remain in control, and justified it by arguing that because the constitution changed while he was president, it reset the term limit counter. gbagbo wanted to run as well but was legally barred. there were all kinds of protests and riots in the runup to and aftermath of the election. dozens of people were killed but thankfully it didn't turn into anything like a civil war. outtara won with some insane percentage of the vote because the opposition boycotted the election.

but tensions were still high when gbagbo returned. thankfully outtara welcomed gbagbo back, gave him a presidential pension and a security detail, let his plane use the presidential pavilion at the airport, basically rolled out the red carpet. definitely steps towards some kind of reconciliation, among the elites at least if not at the national level. there were also anti-gbagbo protests, so there are clearly still bitter feelings over the two civil wars, but at least for now gbagbo's return seems to have gone well.

shirts and skins
Jun 25, 2007

Good morning!

mila kunis posted:

what was the deal with the derg anyway. was it one of those things that started ok but then went off the rails like romania

It went off the rails pretty quickly. Derg and what became the TPLF both came out of the universities, it was a student-led uprising that threw Selassie out of power. As someone mentioned, the Derg were Marxist aligned while other groups were Maoist. Mengistu consolidated power through the Derg and ideological infighting broke out, so the sides declared open war just two years after the revolution. The Derg had the tanks and whatnot so they stomped the poo poo out of the urban maoists, but a failed assassination attempt on Mengistu led to a really bloody purge. End result was Derg control over the cities with Mengistu as dictator and a PLF rural insurgency that continued until the Derg fell in '91.

PawParole
Nov 16, 2019

Atrocious Joe posted:

Ethiopia under Meles Zenawi invaded Somalia to overthrow an Islamic movement that was consolidating control. This was partly to gain favor with the US which in 2006 was still in it's War on Terror fever.

The TPLF governed Ethiopia as a US ally, a role Abiy tried to continue.

mostly so they could use the arms America dumped on them to shoot the people who had just won Ethiopia's first democratic election.

merge the loving threads. this is a hassle

genericnick
Dec 26, 2012

PawParole posted:


merge the loving threads. this is a hassle

Kind of agree with this. If we can do with one Eurasia thread we can probably do with one Mideast + Africa.

PawParole
Nov 16, 2019

mila kunis posted:

what was the deal with the derg anyway. was it one of those things that started ok but then went off the rails like romania

one too many genocides.

mila kunis
Jun 10, 2011

PawParole posted:

mostly so they could use the arms America dumped on them to shoot the people who had just won Ethiopia's first democratic election.

merge the loving threads. this is a hassle

i like this thread being separate, african affairs will get drowned out by ME stuff in a combined thread. get the ppl posting about non-arab africa to come over here

Yossarian-22
Oct 26, 2014

I don't wanna rob ME/Africa thread of Ethiopia/Tigray coverage so maybe posters in here could try and post mostly about non-Ethiopia topics. There are over 50 other countries in Africa after all

Yossarian-22
Oct 26, 2014

Wowee. Jacob Zuma is going to prison. https://allafrica.com/stories/202106290714.html

Remembering when Trevor Noah justified him killing over 30 miners in South Africa. https://twitter.com/broseph_stalin/status/1295687228467875840

Edit: Unfair for me to say "him." The current president, Cyril Ramaphosa, was the non-executive director of the mining company in question despite having a background as a union leader. He himself said the strike was a "dastardly criminal" act that needed action to be taken against it. The whole ruling class is complicit and points fingers at each other.

I guess ANC is mostly trying to remove the taint of corruption from the country by throwing Zuma to the wolves.

Yossarian-22 has issued a correction as of 20:11 on Jun 29, 2021

Bilirubin
Feb 16, 2014

The sanctioned action is to CHUG


Yossarian-22 posted:

I don't wanna rob ME/Africa thread of Ethiopia/Tigray coverage so maybe posters in here could try and post mostly about non-Ethiopia topics. There are over 50 other countries in Africa after all

OTOH, here is a MSF observation of events related to health care in Tigray: https://www.doctorswithoutborders.ca/we-can-do-better-complete-impunity-tigrays-destroyed-health-system not sure what has been covered already in the other thread

frankenfreak
Feb 16, 2007

I SCORED 85% ON A QUIZ ABOUT MONDAY NIGHT RAW AND ALL I GOT WAS THIS LOUSY TEXT

#bastionboogerbrigade

Yossarian-22 posted:

I guess ANC is mostly trying to remove the taint of corruption from the country by throwing Zuma to the wolves.
Yeah, definitely looks like it.

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Yossarian-22
Oct 26, 2014

South Africa might legalize polyandry. https://www.hindustantimes.com/world-news/south-africa-considers-letting-women-have-multiple-husbands-uproar-follows-101624961675794.html

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