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Cavauro
Jan 9, 2008

if you stop bringing up "fanty" every time anyone talks about qbs i will talk to my friend about moving your qb up a couple of spots. no promises

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Bismack Billabongo
Oct 9, 2012

Wet

Cavauro posted:

Commenting on the rankings. NOT an argument. Simple comments.

Agree.

Agree.

Agree.

Agree.

Agree.

Agree.

Would say 9

Agree.

Would say 7

Agree.

Agree.

Agree.

Agree.

Agree.

Agree.

Agree.

Agree.

Agree.

Agree.

Agree.

Agree.

Agree.

Agree.

Agree.

Agree.

Agree.

Agree.

Agree.

Agree.

Agree.

Agree.

Agree.

Yeah, agreed.

MrLogan
Feb 4, 2004

Ask me about Derek Carr's stolen MVP awards, those dastardly refs, and, oh yeah, having the absolute worst fucking gimmick in The Football Funhouse.
Dak is just Blake Bortles with weapons.

blarzgh
Apr 14, 2009

SNITCHIN' RANDY
Grimey Drawer

MrLogan posted:

I'd like to remind people that both Dak and Stafford suck. Garbage time stats that make you good in fanty don't make you a good NFL QB.

Dak is just Blake Bortles with weapons.

I know its bad-faith, "I don't have any idea what I'm talking about, but I'm going to say it anyway." hot take nonsense, but its a useful place to point out that the 'Garbage Time' narrative is stupid, and particularly false in Dak Prescott's case.

First, the idea that "garbage time" exists because defenses stop trying to play defense at some point in the game is ridiculous. In fact, when teams are down by a significant margin, Defenses shift to much heavier pass defense sets - its More difficult to pass the ball in "garbage time."

Regardless, Dak's performance has been essentially the same at any quarter, with any point margin. See, 2020:

QB Rate by Quarter
1st - 98.3
2nd - 111.5
3rd - 101.9
4th - 91.6

QB Rate by Lead/Deficit:
Ahead - 78
down by one score - 96.4
down by two scores or more - 105.6

dak had 222 attempts for 1,800 yards in the 5 games he played - only 34 of those passes came in the last 2 minutes of any half - even less so during True "Garbage Time"

Its just flat stupid to claim Dak's stats are from 'garbage time'.

No Offense.

GOOD TIMES ON METH
Mar 17, 2006

Fun Shoe
Based on those numbers Dak really seems to underperform in the 4th quarter aka 'money time'.

a patagonian cavy
Jan 12, 2009

UUA CVG 230000 KZID /RM TODAY IS THE FIRST DAY OF THE BENGALS DYNASTY
Dak Prescott lost his starting job last year to Andy Dalton so honestly he should be ranked much lower

Metapod
Mar 18, 2012

a neat cape posted:

It would depend on how he played all season. The playoffs are a very limited sample size. If he plays well all season then he can probably approach the top 10.

I also put a lot of stock into 2030, which is why Dak is rather low.

What do you think would have to happen for Herbert to be moved outside top 10

Dubious
Mar 7, 2006

The Heroes the Vikings Deserve
Lipstick Apathy
availability is a skill and Dak didn't have it in 2020 ergo vis a vis he sucks rear end

blarzgh
Apr 14, 2009

SNITCHIN' RANDY
Grimey Drawer
Another reason Dak is a Top 5 QB: If 'Clutch' Exists, he's Clutch.

Through the first four years of his career, Dak Prescott had The Most Game Winning Drives in the NFL - 15. In his career, with the game on the line in the 4th quarter (within 1 score either way) Dak has a QB Rate of Nearly 110

blarzgh
Apr 14, 2009

SNITCHIN' RANDY
Grimey Drawer

GOOD TIMES ON METH posted:

Based on those numbers Dak really seems to underperform in the 4th quarter aka 'money time'.

Also wrong, see above

a patagonian cavy
Jan 12, 2009

UUA CVG 230000 KZID /RM TODAY IS THE FIRST DAY OF THE BENGALS DYNASTY
Wow dak is great, he’s won so many playoffs game and multiple supers bowl in his time in the league

a neat cape
Feb 22, 2007

Aw hunny, these came out GREAT!

Metapod posted:

What do you think would have to happen for Herbert to be moved outside top 10

Show more of what his Oregon tape showed. More picks, bad decision making, etc.

sweet thursday
Sep 16, 2012

Anyone who says garbage time doesn't exist is a nerd who should be shunned

Metapod
Mar 18, 2012

a neat cape posted:

Show more of what his Oregon tape showed. More picks, bad decision making, etc.

I find it tough to believe he will start making worse decisions but interception rng is always there

GNU Order
Feb 28, 2011

That's a paddlin'

blarzgh posted:

Another reason Dak is a Top 5 QB: If 'Clutch' Exists, he's Clutch.

Through the first four years of his career, Dak Prescott had The Most Game Winning Drives in the NFL - 15. In his career, with the game on the line in the 4th quarter (within 1 score either way) Dak has a QB Rate of Nearly 110

The fact that he's in so many game-winning drives, and your above stats where he's terrible with a lead and good with a big defecit, imply to me that he's actually anti-clutch and thrives the most when he's losing, a situation he's very used to. It's the same argument that's been made for Stafford his whole career, another middling career QB

e- also this is an almost textbook definition of survivorship bias. He's completed 15 game winning drives, but how many times has he failed in a potentially game-winning drive?

GNU Order fucked around with this message at 21:11 on Aug 9, 2021

a patagonian cavy
Jan 12, 2009

UUA CVG 230000 KZID /RM TODAY IS THE FIRST DAY OF THE BENGALS DYNASTY

sweet thursday posted:

Anyone who says garbage time doesn't exist is a nerd who should be shunned

it’s definable whenever dak Prescott is on the field because he is a garbage qb

a neat cape
Feb 22, 2007

Aw hunny, these came out GREAT!

a patagonian cavy posted:

it’s definable whenever dak Prescott is on the field because he is a garbage qb

I think he's #10.

Quiet Feet
Dec 14, 2009

THE HELL IS WITH THIS ASS!?





Dak sucks so bad even his foot tried to run away from him.

Bismack Billabongo
Oct 9, 2012

Wet
I think tannehill is better than Dak for sure but it’s a minor quibble.

MrLogan
Feb 4, 2004

Ask me about Derek Carr's stolen MVP awards, those dastardly refs, and, oh yeah, having the absolute worst fucking gimmick in The Football Funhouse.

blarzgh posted:

I know its bad-faith, "I don't have any idea what I'm talking about, but I'm going to say it anyway." hot take nonsense, but its a useful place to point out that the 'Garbage Time' narrative is stupid, and particularly false in Dak Prescott's case.

First, the idea that "garbage time" exists because defenses stop trying to play defense at some point in the game is ridiculous. In fact, when teams are down by a significant margin, Defenses shift to much heavier pass defense sets - its More difficult to pass the ball in "garbage time."

Regardless, Dak's performance has been essentially the same at any quarter, with any point margin. See, 2020:

QB Rate by Quarter
1st - 98.3
2nd - 111.5
3rd - 101.9
4th - 91.6

QB Rate by Lead/Deficit:
Ahead - 78
down by one score - 96.4
down by two scores or more - 105.6

dak had 222 attempts for 1,800 yards in the 5 games he played - only 34 of those passes came in the last 2 minutes of any half - even less so during True "Garbage Time"

Its just flat stupid to claim Dak's stats are from 'garbage time'.

No Offense.

QBR is a garbage stat.

Athanatos
Jun 7, 2006

Est. 1967
I was going to say Dalton is too high, but then I looked at the names under him...and I guess not.

kiimo
Jul 24, 2003

I really didn't see this thread going to the direction of the Dak Stan Fan

Chucktesla
Jul 13, 2014

Dak should be ranked lower due to all the advanced stats needed to show that he's good, actually

blarzgh
Apr 14, 2009

SNITCHIN' RANDY
Grimey Drawer

kiimo posted:

I really didn't see this thread going to the direction of the Dak Stan Fan

Well Mr. Nice told me about it, so it's his fault

blarzgh
Apr 14, 2009

SNITCHIN' RANDY
Grimey Drawer

GNU Order posted:

The fact that he's in so many game-winning drives, and your above stats where he's terrible with a lead and good with a big defecit, imply to me that he's actually anti-clutch and thrives the most when he's losing, a situation he's very used to. It's the same argument that's been made for Stafford his whole career, another middling career QB

e- also this is an almost textbook definition of survivorship bias. He's completed 15 game winning drives, but how many times has he failed in a potentially game-winning drive?

"Bill Barnwell laid this out for ESPN in June, framing it as a comparison between Prescott, Carson Wentz, and Jared Goff:

In the fourth quarter and overtime, when the game has been within eight points, Prescott has been excellent; he has the league’s ninth-best passer rating (104.8) and third-best QBR (79.2) when the game is late and within one score.
...

Prescott also has the best winning percentage in games decided by eight points or fewer at 19-13, "

https://www.espn.com/nfl/story/_/id/29247938/debunking-dak-prescott-contract-debate-facts-fiction-why-cowboys-pay-him

kiimo
Jul 24, 2003

I actually like Dak but I'm still laughing at someone being mad that JOSH ALLEN was ranked higher than him.

Sour Diesel
Jan 30, 2010

Chucktesla posted:

Dak should be ranked lower due to all the advanced stats needed to show that he's good, actually

blarzgh
Apr 14, 2009

SNITCHIN' RANDY
Grimey Drawer
You can blame Dak's close games on him not playing well, which doesn't stand up to scrutiny, because, as shown above, he's performed excellently in the first second and third quarters.

Or, you could blame the games always being close on the fact that most games in the NFL are closed games.

Or, you could blame it on the fact that Dallas has generally had a garbage defense for the last 5 years, how many times you score on the other team comes back and scores again.

Or on the fact that until last season he played under the one of the most conservative head coaches in football, and Jason Garrett, who routinely ran the ball over and over and over again with a lead, no matter how small it was, to slow down the game and drive up time of position

Chucktesla
Jul 13, 2014

blarzgh posted:

"Bill Barnwell laid this out for ESPN in June, framing it as a comparison between Prescott, Carson Wentz, and Jared Goff:

In the fourth quarter and overtime, when the game has been within eight points, Prescott has been excellent; he has the league’s ninth-best passer rating (104.8) and third-best QBR (79.2) when the game is late and within one score.
...

Prescott also has the best winning percentage in games decided by eight points or fewer at 19-13, "

https://www.espn.com/nfl/story/_/id/29247938/debunking-dak-prescott-contract-debate-facts-fiction-why-cowboys-pay-him

Sounds like the tenth best quarterback in the league to me

blarzgh
Apr 14, 2009

SNITCHIN' RANDY
Grimey Drawer

kiimo posted:

I actually like Dak but I'm still laughing at someone being mad that JOSH ALLEN was ranked higher than him.

I AM mad, and also a bit incredulous, but I get that it's mostly general anti-dallas bias and recency bias of Josh Allen's first year more than hyper objective review of Dak Prescott's career thus far

Metapod
Mar 18, 2012

Chucktesla posted:

Dak should be ranked lower due to all the advanced stats needed to show that he's good, actually

blarzgh
Apr 14, 2009

SNITCHIN' RANDY
Grimey Drawer
I was far more committed to spreading the gospel before he got his contract, but now that he got paid it's a less compelling endeavor

a neat cape
Feb 22, 2007

Aw hunny, these came out GREAT!
I think Dak at #10 is fair

Phobeste
Apr 9, 2006

never, like, count out Touchdown Tom, man
I agree.

blarzgh
Apr 14, 2009

SNITCHIN' RANDY
Grimey Drawer

Chucktesla posted:

Dak should be ranked lower due to all the advanced stats needed to show that he's good, actually

Would you prefer more traditional metrics, like how his 40 wins through his first four seasons are the 5th most by any QB in history?

Metapod
Mar 18, 2012
I can't loving believe this motherfucker used last season to make his rankings

GOOD TIMES ON METH
Mar 17, 2006

Fun Shoe
I encourage you to keep arguing for Dak and wish you luck but please stop hollerin about recency bias in a sport where almost retires of brain injuries by age 24. What a player has done before like two years ago doesn't matter at all given the constant churn of players and staff in the league

BrownThunder
Oct 26, 2005

EXTEND BEN!
Forever and ever and ever

Garbage time is real and it starts right after #9 on that list

Phobeste
Apr 9, 2006

never, like, count out Touchdown Tom, man
Football is a what-have-you-done-for-me lately sport and when I watched a lot of Cowboys games last year, let me tell you I didn't exactly see Dak Prescott leading his team to victory by hook or by crook and establishing himself as a starter in the National Football League. Quite honestly, he didn't even show up - and I think that's a problem.

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fartknocker
Oct 28, 2012


Damn it, this always happens. I think I'm gonna score, and then I never score. It's not fair.



Wedge Regret
Jared Lorenzen should be #1 on every list.

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