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Which horse film is your favorite?
This poll is closed.
Black Beauty 2 1.06%
A Talking Pony!?! 4 2.13%
Mr. Hands 2x Apple Flavor 117 62.23%
War Horse 11 5.85%
Mr. Hands 54 28.72%
Total: 188 votes
[Edit Poll (moderators only)]

 
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Zudgemud
Mar 1, 2009
Grimey Drawer

Stickman posted:

There's no reason to suspect that SA is the origin, but the theory that it has been circulating undetected in it's current form is extremely shaky given how quickly it's now taking off in places with good surveillance and ongoing very high Delta epidemics. It had no doubt made it's way to other countries shortly before detection in SA, but I don't see any way Jorge Cabellero's speculation that it circulated in September and was squashed by Delta could be correct unless it was some ancestral form.

What's annoying is seeing people pretend that "well no one has died" is evidence that omicron is less deadly, or not worrying. It's not any such thing and it's the same old grasping at straws poo poo people in this thread have been doing for the last year.

One can find a nice overview of omicron mutation accumulations on the site below. Variants with various combinations of the mutations have been circulating in the population for a year. It is only now that some lucky virus managed to collect them all, probably via recombination with co-infecting variants in some poor schmucks.

https://galaxyproject.eu/posts/2021/11/29/omicron-and-galaxy/

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Zudgemud
Mar 1, 2009
Grimey Drawer

fnox posted:

So what are we looking at, like, 2-3 more years of this poo poo every other season?

The virologists at work who have worked for decades with the other coronaviruses have talked about how it will probably become like the other ones. Which is to say that it would be something you catch as a young kid and the subsequent reinfections during youth and adulthood will make the symptoms milder over time.

Fun fact, the best negative controls for common coronavirus serology is the blood of infants! Because everyone else appears to have been exposed to them all and only babies of a certain age are likely to fill both the criteria of "have no maternal antibodies against coronaviruses left" and "likely not infected by the virus yet".

Zudgemud
Mar 1, 2009
Grimey Drawer

Owlofcreamcheese posted:

The real answer (maybe):

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1889%E2%80%931890_pandemic


Where common cold virus OC43 seems to have diverged from cow virus at the exact same time a deadly pandemic was happening in 1889 that was called flu at the time but had few flu like symptoms and had exactly like coronavirus symptoms (loss of taste and smell).

Yeah, and this also doesn't tell anything about how fast or if a new circulating coronavirus will mutate into a milder variant. OC43 is not necessarily that much milder than than it was before either, just that nowadays almost everyone has already had OC43 when they were young and more prone to have a mild infection (and the general health of the global population is probably better nowadays too, making it appear milder). Then as people have gotten older they have been reinfected every now and then and their aquired immunity from younger days helps them to cope with each new circulating OC43 strains, which have settled into a somewhat stable antigen profile.

Zudgemud
Mar 1, 2009
Grimey Drawer
Just posting some nice images of SARS CoV 2 evolution that I'm using for some course material.

To the left is an image from early 2020 where researchers analyzed the glycosylation (a common post translational protein modification) of the spike protein and modeled the glycosylations (the puffy balls) onto the existing spike protein 3D structure (the red and white basal structure) to determine epitope accessibility (Illustrated by how red the underlying structure is).

The protein is shown from the side and from the top down.

To the right is the same spike protein 3D structure sans the glycosylations, but updated with more data to get a higher resolution. The orange dots represent the location of point mutations in the omicron BA.2 lineage compared to the original Wuhan strain.

What is obvious is that it is primarily the exposed non glycosylated areas, specifically around the Ace2 binding site (light blue areas in the lower right pictures) that have accumulated mutations. This is because 1 these sites are the most accessible epitopes for the immune system (no heterogeneous fluffy glycosylation that shields the protein surface), 2 targeting the Ace2 binding site is also an effective way of inactivating the virion and 3 there have been some host binding optimization that will also primarily affect the area around the receptor binding site. All in all this is making these epitopes under the highest evolutionary pressure.

Zudgemud
Mar 1, 2009
Grimey Drawer
I'll just post this here as I apparently had the GBS thread bookmarked instead of this one.

Has this been shared here yet?

Dumb people slow with getting vaxed.

The Article posted:

Cognitive ability, health policy, and the dynamics of COVID-19 vaccination

We examine the relationship between cognitive ability and prompt COVID-19 vaccination using individual-level data on more than 700,000 individuals in Sweden. We find a strong positive association between cognitive ability and swift vaccination, which remains even after controlling for confounding variables with a twin-design. The results suggest that the complexity of the vaccination decision may make it difficult for individuals with lower cognitive abilities to understand the benefits of vaccination. Consistent with this, we show that simplifying the vaccination decision through pre-booked vaccination appointments alleviates almost all of the inequality in vaccination behavior.

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Zudgemud
Mar 1, 2009
Grimey Drawer

I AM GRANDO posted:

How do you measure cognitive ability? The paper probably says whether it’s correlated with annual income or education level, but I’m pretty suspicious of any argument that presents a definition of intelligence as a measurable trait.

Electric Wrigglies posted:

Yeah, strikes me as wooo statistics trying to goad people into getting the vaccine (only dummies don't get the vaccine!). Admirable goal, dumb way to do it.

It's a mandatory aptitude test for conscripts which helps to decide if you get to be the most simple cannon fodder or if you are useful for more demanding tasks such as radar, air force or things like that. It is a more general competence test with language understanding sections, general knowledge and some mix of IQ test-like questions with figures and reasoning etc. Basically, if you were a smart kid at school with good grades you tend to get higher scores. It's not a pure IQ test because it's just one part of the aptitude sorting system.

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