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Which horse film is your favorite? This poll is closed. |
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|---|---|---|---|
| Black Beauty |
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2 | 1.06% |
| A Talking Pony!?! |
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4 | 2.13% |
| Mr. Hands 2x Apple Flavor |
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117 | 62.23% |
| War Horse |
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11 | 5.85% |
| Mr. Hands |
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54 | 28.72% |
| Total: | 188 votes | ||
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what's wrong with us neighsayers
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Sep 14, 2021 03:10
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Oracle posted:If he’s into all that bullshit point out that the original purveyors of the most natural medicine around (and who have every reason to distrust the US government) have some of the highest vaccinated rates in the country: native Americans on reservations. Might help. point to the Navajo (Dine) in particular because that's not true of all reservations and if he goes digging he can easily find evidence of reservations where vaxx rates are very low (mine is one)
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Sep 14, 2021 04:49
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Epic High Five posted:What I've been kind of curious of as someone dumber than poo poo is that we've got two vaccines approved and being administered into kids between 3-12, Sinovac which is inactivated virus, and Soberana-2 which is "conjugate" whatever that means. Is the problem that kids don't respond well specifically to mRNA type vaccines? If so, should our research be going into J&J or even importing/fast tracking one of these types? Unfortunately there doesn't seem to be any data on Sputnik-V on kids, which would be interesting because the first shot in that series is the same adenovirus vector as J&J uses IIRC I don't think there's any evidence that mRNA vaccines wouldn't work in children. I can't think of any reason why not. Sinovac and Soberana were developed outside the US so I assume there's more regulatory hurdles for the FDA to accept Russian and Cuban trial data. As has been mentioned by several posters, anything involving pediatrics involves extra extra layers of regulation and scrutiny.
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Sep 15, 2021 02:09
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I think in this conversation re: schoolkids we maybe should be careful not to overgeneralize. The needs, risks, and resources available to meet both of those vary tremendously between families, schools, communities, states etc. There's no one-size-fits-all solution. Young children especially need socialization and a solid grade-school education. As an educator myself, distance learning is garbage for young kids. Somewhat effective for high school and college students but terrible for grade schoolers. Parents have to weigh the benefits vs. risks and that is going to be very different in every instance. Are you a family in an area with pretty high vaccination rates and well-funded schools (i.e. Democratic-voting, probably mostly white area)? Congrats your school district has the resources in order to take reasonable precautions to protect students and the community. Are you a family in an area with lower vaccination rates and/or poorly funded schools? The calculus becomes much more difficult. Add to that if you're lower-income, parents probably need to be working in-person which makes it very difficult to provide day care or supervision to a child doing at-home distance education. edit: Oracle posted:So one of the reasons I’m hearing from teachers and care groups for public schools being so adamantly open’r up is apparently really bad levels of child abuse and neglect among lower income populations as parents are forced to go to work and leave kids at home unsupervised or with friends or relatives they normally probably wouldn’t out of desperation. I am kind of queasy about some of the stories I’ve heard regarding child sexual abuse numbers in particular. yup that too, very much so. The kids don't live and learn in a vacuum, how schools operate has tremendous effects on family and community dynamics as well.
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Sep 15, 2021 06:18
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The end goal of the vaccines was always to prevent disease, not transmission. It is unremarkable that vaccinated people can get mild and occasionally moderate symptoms and are still transmissible (severe disease very rarely). That was entirely expected. My personal take is that, yes, we eased restrictions earlier than we should have though I am not an epidemiologist. That doesn't really provide any bearing on where we go from here. I guess that sort of kicks it back to the thread OP/IK on whether this thread should be more retrospective "where we went wrong" (lol everywhere, constantly) vs. "what is the current situation, best practices, where to go from here?" edit: a fundamental part of science vs. pseudoscience or conspiracy theories is self-correction. Good science adapts and changes in reaction to new facts and knowledge. I see a lot of people (not here necessarily, in general) insisting "well Fauci and the government change their mind all the time and they've been wrong so why should I trust them??" Because good science reacts to our evolving understanding of the situation. This is a general statement, I'd need to go back and review the science at the time. Just because something was a wrong idea in retrospect doesn't mean it wasn't the appropriate course of action with the facts available at the time. Fritz the Horse fucked around with this message at 07:13 on Sep 15, 2021 |
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Sep 15, 2021 07:09
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mod sassinator posted:And folks, we're on track to lose more people to COVID-19 under Biden than we did under Trump. When Biden was inaugurated in mid January there were 400k COVID-19 deaths in the US. Right now there are ~670k deaths, an increase of 270k under Biden. At our current average death rate of 1800 deaths a day (as reported by the wapo tracker right now) if it holds up for 4 more months until mid January 2022 we will add another ~220k deaths. So Biden will end his first year with ~400-500k COVID-19 deaths vs. 400k under Trump's last year. This is with the incredible vaccine development and rollout, advances in treatment, boosters and such to come, etc. We have still somehow stayed on track to lose almost the same amount of Americans this year as we did in the first year of blindly fighting the virus. I personally think this is appalling and it demands the administration take much harsher measures to curtail the growth of the virus. Did you miss the vaccination mandates a few days ago? I would contend that a lot of the action that remains to be taken is at state/local level.
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Sep 15, 2021 07:16
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mod sassinator posted:And folks, hold on to your butts because there's nothing stopping an even worse variant emerging from our current tremendous levels of transmission. Every epidemiologist has warned that we cannot sustain high levels of transmission with hundreds of thousands of new cases a day without breeding more variants. We continue to play with fire and just want to shift blame instead of take action. If we breed a variant that escapes the vaccine antibodies then it is suddenly a pandemic for everyone again--never forget that. For my own mental health and well being I'm going to keep on living my life as normally as I can with every reasonable precaution. Me personally, I'm not going to obsess over the possibility of new, vaccine-evading variants emerging. That's not a healthy way to live your life. It might happen! But, in that worst-case scenario, we'll have months of warning to prepare. How long were we warned about delta before it started causing surges in the US? Same will be true of any new variant. There will be advance warning, and you or I can take appropriate measures. I'm not going to live my life in the wreckage of the future.
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Sep 15, 2021 07:34
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Epic High Five posted:fake edit - I think another big thing is that it's abundantly clear that most Americans have not actually ever had a "normal" flu and definitely have never had to deal with pneumonia in any capacity This is absolutely true. A ton of people get a bad cold or "stomach flu" and think they have influenza. Hell no, actual no-poo poo flu will knock you hard on your rear end for a week or more it's awful. "It's just the flu" is dumb both because it's wrong and also the flu is bad.
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Sep 15, 2021 17:46
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Mercury_Storm posted:*Oh yeah and then there's CDC guidance that the appropriate distancing for kids was 3 feet instead of 6 feet, thus allowing kids to be jam packed into current classroom sizes and still be within the guidelines, that they put in during the Trump era and never updated, which I'm just assuming is malfeasance at this point. I'm at work and don't have time to dig into it deeply but iirc the reduction from 6 to 3ft distancing was based on research such as https://academic.oup.com/cid/advance-article/doi/10.1093/cid/ciab230/6167856 which found that in school settings, going from 6 to 3ft (masks mandated in both) didn't impact transmission. And Platystemon posted:Nah that happened two months into Biden’s presidency. It's not necessarily malfeasance or politically-motivated decision making, the 3ft distancing is based on science to some degree.
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Sep 15, 2021 18:48
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Platystemon posted:The run on ivermectin was “based on science to some degree”. Thanks, that was a good twitter thread. My school is mandating vaccines + 3ft spacing which I'm reasonably comfortable with, personally. Mandating vaccines as in absolutely nobody (staff and students both) are allowed on campus without having fully completed a vaccine course and providing documentation. Several of our area schools shut down yesterday because they had huge spikes in cases, but vaccination rates are low here and lol Sturgis (I'm in South Dakota)
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Sep 15, 2021 19:17
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Nonsense posted:Was the Spanish Flu epidemic essentially COVID or really different? I wonder how horrific the death toll would have been if COVID was pre world wars, as the Spanish Flu period killed like 20 million people? I know there was even basic mitigation for it even back then, but more than a million people dying to this now in our own period is still very terrible. The virus and disease were very different; Spanish flu caused a cytokine storm which means young healthy people were hit the worst by it which is the opposite of COVID and most illnesses (older people more affected). The (lack of) societal response has a lot of parallels. We knew that masks worked in limiting spread of the Spanish Flu but there were anti-mask protests and riots in the US. Another major difference is the speed and frequency of international travel today.
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Sep 15, 2021 19:31
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Illuminti posted:Whilst trying not to anger anyone. Yes the flu is bad. But its become accepted fact that if you weren't fading in and out of consciousness for a week, sweating blood and talking to ghosts of dead relatives then you didn't have flu, you had a cold....you weak bastard, get back to work. Sounds like a better way to frame it is that plenty of people have (actual) mild flu symptoms then blow covid off as just the same mild flu. However, a significant proportion of people get really loving sick from the flu and COVID is actually much worse.
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Sep 16, 2021 01:58
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Fighting Trousers posted:Eh, this spring there were a heck of a lot more people wearing masks here in Oklahoma than there are now, even as our ICUs have been filled to capacity for weeks. Giving people permission to stop wearing masks absolutely had an impact. I have an exceptionally long face and agree it's hard finding masks that fit
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Sep 16, 2021 05:34
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HelloSailorSign posted:Zero COVID is not possible with how our Federal, states, and local governments work, and arguably with the infectious capability of current strains, and wishing it were so does not change that fact. The Federal government does not have that power. Also, even if you could somehow enforce a tight lockdown in the US, COVID is in wildlife now, there was that article from a short while ago how it was coming up in deer.
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Sep 17, 2021 00:18
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Tnega posted:If you missed it. I for one can't wait until I get to eat bacon from a pig that had the Coronavirus, packaged by an undocumented immigrant with Coronavirus, that I bought at the store filled with the unmaked who also have the coronavirus. Yeah I'm on a couple USDA mailing lists for work I'm pretty sure there have been announcements of it popping up in other animals. Mink definitely, that was last year. Let me go look in my email. edit: nah just deer recently and mink last year I believe. From USDA at least. But my point was that zero covid is a pipe dream in the US even if we could somehow enforce a strict national lockdown. You're still going to have potential for outbreaks from wildlife. Fritz the Horse fucked around with this message at 00:46 on Sep 17, 2021 |
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Sep 17, 2021 00:43
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The vaccines are still fine at preventing severe disease there's very little loss there, it's the efficacy in completely stopping symptomatic infection that's waning some. Also, note that it's the pharma companies that are pushing booster shots the hardest, experts are mixed on whether it's all that beneficial right now. From the very article you link: quote:"It will cause a minor delay to our rollout," Desi Kotis, UCSF's Chief Pharmacy Executive. Same thing with the Pfizer vaccine, it's Pfizer itself that is pushing strongest for third shots for the general population.
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Sep 17, 2021 04:04
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Vasukhani posted:They need to be forcing vaccination and removing anti-vax governments from power. If Al-Qaeda took over Florida and did daily 9/11s I think the US would probably nuke them. That's such a more important topic than boosters. It's like handing out one sandbag to each house in a town about to be flooded, and then telling them they can get more sand in the sandbag soon if it is approved, instead of organizing dam building. How do you suggest removing the government of Florida from power? Other than suggesting that if DeSantis was Al-Qaeda the state would get nuked or something.
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Sep 17, 2021 04:22
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Stickman posted:Besides the HCW studies that have already been discussed, there's this study showing declining antibody levels in HCWs. They seem to track with the similar antibody declines in the general population studies, suggesting that any HCW exposures aren't keeping antibodies up, at least. It does make sense because strict PPE use means they are likely aren't exposed more than say, your average service worker. My (educated layman's) understanding of vaccine immunity was that antibodies are expected to wane pretty quickly, but memory B and T-cell response lasts much longer. Which is why we're seeing drops in antibodies (expected) and decreased effectiveness versus breakthrough mild/moderate infection, but to my knowledge we don't have evidence that the vaccines are less effective against severe disease, hospitalization, and death. That's why a lot of experts are not convinced on authorizing boosters for the general population, because the vaccines are still just about as effective vs. serious disease. Plus I assume there are considerations of maintaining enough vaccine supply for boosters for people whose doctors recommend it (immunocompromised, very elderly etc) and the still unvaccinated. I mean, my doctor recommended I get a booster so I scheduled one for next week. Horses have a very long nasal cavity and are predisposed to respiratory illness. edit: in case someone gets mad at me making a bad dumb joke, I do actually have underlying conditions that warrant a booster. Horse jokes aside. Fritz the Horse fucked around with this message at 04:39 on Sep 17, 2021 |
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Sep 17, 2021 04:36
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Platystemon posted:Don’t make appeals based on the perceived sinister motivations of the parties. Leave that to the antivaxxers. Actually it is entirely appropriate to critically appraise the claims made by vaccine manufacturers when many experts are unconvinced the boosters are necessary for the general population. It is not medical experts writ large aggressively pushing for boosters for the general population, it is the pharma companies. That is certainly not reason to invalidate their claims, but it is worth noting. It's also irrelevant to bring up antivaxxers. We're talking about boosters for people who are already fully vaccinated. The actual cost-benefit analysis is along the lines of: Platystemon posted:If you want to argue that those doses are better given to the third world, I won’t disagree, but I don’t think that’s a credible alternative in America today. Do those third shots give enough of a boost to the US general population that it's worth devoting many tens of millions of doses to rollout at this time? Or would those doses be better used for the unvaxxed either here or in other nations? I mean, South Africa is having a hell of a time with the pandemic (among worst in Africa) and has high rates of HIV infection, for one example. If the boosters are authorized and pushed for general population, how will that impact availability for high-risk populations and unvaccinated in the US? Granted at this point I don't think you're reaching very many unvaxxed people in the US, but there will still be a trickle due to the recent mandates and worsening delta peak. edit: my personal stake in this is that I was on a ventilator for three days and almost died in January 2020 for reasons unrelated to COVID. Due to those issues, I'm in a high-risk group and recommended to get a booster ASAP. Because of that I'm a little concerned about the possibility of a rush on booster shots by the general population delaying boosters for the high-risk populations that definitely need them. Maybe that's unfounded and there's plenty of supply, but that's my own personal investment. I think it is the responsibility of the US to deploy more vaccines to other countries ASAP. We hosed up our own response to begin with and hoarded vaccine. It is incredibly selfish and inhumane to hoover up booster shots for marginal effect when they could instead be used outside the country to save vastly more human life. Like if the metric is "human lives saved" then ship them to Africa, holy poo poo are you kidding me? Fritz the Horse fucked around with this message at 05:18 on Sep 17, 2021 |
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Sep 17, 2021 05:07
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mod sassinator posted:If we want to help the third world then let's remove the patent on the vaccines and let India crank out mRNA doses by the billions, like they have requested multiple times and we have denied. This is a red herring. India does not currently have the infrastructure to produce mRNA vaccines which require highly highly specialized equipment and staff to do things like the lipid encapsulation. It would take many many months or years for mRNA production to come online with patents waived and the companies actively engaged in tech transfer. There was a goon in the previous iteration of this thread that was posting about the microfluidics chips needed to do the lipid encapsulation. Foxfire_ posted:I will attempt a mRNA microfluidics effortpost (viral vector ones are there own things, and also completely separate from traditional mass-produced egg-grown vaccines, but those are being made by dozens of companies worldwide already because tissue culturing is more developed than microfluidics) Send the doses abroad. "Just remove the patent" doesn't do poo poo in any meaningful timeframe. Fritz the Horse fucked around with this message at 05:24 on Sep 17, 2021 |
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Sep 17, 2021 05:22
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Professor Beetus posted:IMO though, I live in an area where free walk in covid shots are everywhere with like zero wait, and I don't even think we're at 70% vaccinated. In my area vaccine distribution is done through IHS (by appt) and they are quite swamped with actual COVID and other cases so the wait to get a vaccine dose is a week or more. It's not a lack of dose supply locally so much as it is a very limited distribution infrastructure in remote/rural areas. To circle back, what started this booster conversation was an article about the FDA pushing back its meeting to approve boosters by a couple weeks and the contention was that this is a massive failure of the administration and many HCW will die as a result. I'll certainly change my tune if there are good data showing reduced efficacy of vaccines against severe disease but I haven't seen that yet. That seems to be what's prompting the disagreement from many experts: there aren't much data showing reduced effectiveness of (non-boostered) vaccines against severe disease, hospitalization, and death, so they're hesitant to support approval for general population when two-shot regimens are still preventing ICU cases and deaths equally well.
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Sep 17, 2021 05:38
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mod sassinator posted:Ok fine then let's let China do it. They are already planning on billions of mRNA doses from their vaccine next year. I think we're going in circles. What is your argument? I don't want to mischaracterize it but it seems to be along the lines of: "everyone, especially HCW, should get boosters immediately and it is an immense failure of the US gov't that they have not already been authorized." edit: mod sassinator posted:So does Israel just have a policy of 'we'd like our citizens to live healthy covid-free lives'? The boosters are open to all citizens in Israel right now. They are saving lives. Is our policy process just not as good as Israel and we have to live with more deaths? this imo is the kicker. I have not seen good evidence that a two-shot vaccine regiment is less effective against severe illness, hospitalization, and death. You are saying that boosters will save lives and so everyone (not just high-risk groups) should get them. Yes, the vaccine efficacy against breakthrough mild to moderate disease is waning. That's not the same as deaths. Fritz the Horse fucked around with this message at 05:57 on Sep 17, 2021 |
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Sep 17, 2021 05:54
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jetz0r posted:And don't forget that this is America, where a week in a hospital will easily cost a quarter million dollars, or maybe only $50,000 if you have insurance. So in addition to suffering through the sickness and any potential long term effects, merely going to a hospital is financial ruination for the working class here. This is going to be extremely pedantic, but your insurer actually can't bill you for $50,000 for stuff they cover (refusing coverage is a separate issue I'm not familiar with). The ACA-mandated out of pocket maximum is $8,550 for 2021. Which is absolutely still ruinous and lovely for working and middle class people. The main reason I know this is I hit my out of pocket maximum last year with an 11-day hospital stay. The hospital billed my insurer $300k and change and my own cost was the out of pocket maximum. Which was still a huge chunk of change, just not $50k. I'm not defending the health insurance system and am very much pro universal healthcare, you just don't seem to be familiar with some of the (tedious, awful) details.
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Sep 17, 2021 06:23
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Stickman posted:That's only in-network, unfortunately, and if you have a family plan that doubles even if it's just one person using it. Employer plans also have some more wiggle room and loopholes for larger OOP maximums, even in-network. The HHS put out some out-of-network surprise billing rules in July, but I have no idea how closely they are being followed or enforced, or if there are remaining loopholes. Oh yeah, the amount of paperwork and rules lawyering with health insurance is just incredibly difficult and confusing to navigate on top of the $$$.
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Sep 17, 2021 06:37
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Epic High Five posted:I think what is weirdest about all this to me is what poll plane variant mentioned. Okay we the official plan is to vaccinate our way out of it. Huge supply of vaccines? Check. Rolling out wide ranging mandates at long last? Check. Dumping lots of cash into getting needles into arms? Check. But the thing is, boosters were always acknowledged to be a part of it barring immediate and massive uptake, so why so much confusion and departmental fights now that we've reached that critical moment? I don't know that there's confusion and fighting so much as the FDA is very diligent about assessing safety and efficacy before approval and is an independent agency. Being largely independent of pressure from the White House is a very good thing, actually! And yeah "talk to your own doctor about boosters" is definitely the right advice for now. You can chat with your doc about your own risk profile and underlying conditions and go from there.
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Sep 17, 2021 19:48
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poll plane variant posted:A perfect vaccine may be impossible, but a 90% ballpark reduction in infections as we saw with fresh second doses and are now seeing in Israel will massively reduce the burden of this disease in the US in terms of suffering, economic impacts, and frankly the corrosion of the social fabric in general. The fewer cases the better, especially to protect the elderly, immunocompromised, and children. Was the 90% drop in transmission after second shot from Israeli data during their first big vaccine drive a while back? I thought that was mostly pre-Delta. Two shots of vaccine is amazing at having non-Delta SARS-CoV-2 just bounce off you entirely. Delta is a gamechanger for breakthrough infections in vaccinated people. The vaccines are still good against hospitalization/death. Have you seen any data on transmission reduction (or protection against infections, period) post third shot? Seems like it's too early to have much of that.
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Sep 17, 2021 20:05
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What is supposed to be "garbage" about those stats? I'm missing something here. It's a 90-day risk which is left out of the tweet and might be misleading. I guess it could be misrepresented by anti-vaxxers to claim the risk of the vaccine is higher than COVID but anti-vaxxers misrepresenting data isn't new. edit:  that Dr. Eli David twitter account appears to be an anti-vaxxer or vaccine skeptic so be careful with your sources?
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Sep 17, 2021 20:13
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mod sassinator posted:Ummm that tweet has 1,800 likes already. People are reading the message and believing it at face value. This was a disaster of a policy decision to not make it more clear what was and wasn't public comment from lunatic anti-vaxxers (of which there were at least three mentions of Nicki Minaj and swollen testicles in this FDA sanctioned and controlled meeting!). that twitter account is a vaccine skeptic and deliberately misinforming with that tweet which leaves out critical context for those statistics Is the claim that a vaccine skeptic / antivaxxer is misrepresenting data from the FDA meeting and therefore the FDA is loving up somehow? edit: I'm at work and not watching the meeting so I genuinely am not sure what the issue being presented here is edit2: oh is it something about how the FDA allows public comments, including slideshows from the public, and so anti-vaxxers are allowed to show powerpoint slides at the FDA meeting? Fritz the Horse fucked around with this message at 20:29 on Sep 17, 2021 |
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Sep 17, 2021 20:22
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mod sassinator posted:It cannot be emphasized enough how much the FDA has failed the American people. Israel's warning is DIRE and that severe illness and death is coming for vaccinated people in a few months Being immunocompromised is not remotely the same thing as having waning vaccine immunity. This was discussed earlier in the thread with the difference between "additional" shots (which immuno-suppressed or immunocompromised people need) and "booster" shots for the general population. You're essentially suggesting posters lie to pharmacies and doctors to get boosters.
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Sep 17, 2021 20:37
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virtualboyCOLOR posted:Maybe not have the big “FDA” logo next to it at the very least. There are at least steps the FDA can take other than allowing full PowerPoint presentations from Anti-vaxxors and then go on to ignoring data from scientists. That’s just me though. "Did not reach the conclusion I think they should have" is not the same as "ignoring data" or "ignoring science." The evaluation of actual scientists and experts in the FDA does not match yours. They may certainly be wrong, but consider we're basically at https://twitter.com/dril/status/650184561045995520?lang=en edit: Stickman posted:Unfortunately, 90-day risk is useless without context in an epidemic that comes and goes in waves that infect double-digit proportions of the population. The important missing bit is which 90 days are being used as baseline risk of infection. Since pre-Delta hospitalization risk after infection for a healthy 30-year-old woman is ~1.6% (from multiple hospitalization risk models), I'm guessing that they're using pre-Delta conditional risk values and assuming 1% of healthy 30-yo women will be infected over 90 days. Given that we infected somewhere around 7% of the US population in the last two months and that Delta doubles hospitalization (and maybe death) rates, those assumptions seem pretty untenable. Yeah I wasn't watching the meeting so wasn't sure what the objection was when I posted what you quote. The antivaxxers were misrepresenting that 90-day statistic to claim vaccines are more dangerous than COVID or something, and because it's public comment they're allowed to display their own slides. The tweet omitted the 90-day bit entirely because the twitter account is an Israeli vaccine skeptic. Fritz the Horse fucked around with this message at 21:12 on Sep 17, 2021 |
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Sep 17, 2021 21:09
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Vasukhani posted:It seems like if the US is too weak/primitive/ delayed by religious fundamentalism to successfully take measures for public health, they should at least allow people to exercise their "choice" and get more vaccines. since they won't be used by the fundamentalist states anyway. Or give them to power countries. There basically is a moral imperative to force vaccines right now at gun point. what Also you keep continually bringing up "protestantism" and "religious fundamentalism" and I have no idea what that has to do with any of this except in a very very indirect way.
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Sep 17, 2021 22:02
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I don't wanna put words in UCS Hellmaker's mouth but it sounds like they absolutely dgaf about the booster conversation because they're extremely burnt out and frustrated and all the booster chat is navel-gazing from posters who have a very limited understanding of the actual disease, disease progression, situation in hospitals etc.Vasukhani posted:American ideology is based in anti-science beliefs about choice and free will. These are founded in early modern ideas. Americans see themselves as individual actors who must make the correct choice (an anti-political idea) as opposed to elements of the machine that is the community. This doesn't really make any sense except in somehow leading to the conclusion you've expressed several times that authoritarian regimes are handling COVID correctly while liberal democracies in the US and Europe are not.
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Sep 17, 2021 22:10
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Vasukhani posted:Why is getting the COVID vaccine a choice? Partly because you need an enforcement mechanism to mandate vaccines. China is severely restricting access to public services to try to get people vaccinated, for example. The US is trying to go through OSHA. I mean, you've expressed support for vaccination at gunpoint. I humbly submit that martial law and vaccination by threat of violence will not work very well except in the most totalitarian of states.
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Sep 17, 2021 22:23
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Could someone link me the publications/reports from Israel about boosters? Sincere question, I've seen them referenced a ton itt but haven't seen the actual data, methodology etc. I've been busy with work but have some time this evening and weekend and would like to dig into a little more detail than news reports and secondhand mentions in forums posts.
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Sep 18, 2021 00:00
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Nevermind I'm home and tracked down the Israeli booster study, here is the full publication I believe: https://www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/NEJMoa2114255 I'll give it a read this evening and might post some thoughts. I don't know that I particularly trust Bloomberg or Business Insider to do very thorough science reporting. Not disputing anything posted here regarding the study, I just prefer to have the actual document and discuss it with a few other people who've read it. edit: at a glance, one big thing here is this study is looking at boosters for people aged 60 and older which means you really can't extrapolate these results to the US general population. Unless there's another Israeli booster study that involves people under age 60 that I didn't find? edit2: there's also this slide deck from the Israeli Ministry of Health that was released by the FDA today: https://www.fda.gov/media/152205/download That might have information in addition to the above. I won't have a chance to look through it for a bit. Fritz the Horse fucked around with this message at 01:04 on Sep 18, 2021 |
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Sep 18, 2021 00:53
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I did some homework. Here's my summary of the Israeli booster data. Data are from: https://www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/NEJMoa2114255 Full peer-reviewed publication in booster shots for people ages >60, published 15 Sept https://www.fda.gov/media/152205/download Israeli Ministry of Health powerpoint slides released by FDA 17 Sept Timeline: March 2021 - Israel reaches high levels of full vaccination, ~3 months before other countries March 7th - Israel fully reopens June - Delta takes over as dominant variant July through early August - 10x increase in severe cases 60% of which are fully vaccinated, data show immunity waning July 30th - Booster shots start for >60. Younger age groups eligible in following weeks. The data here support: -Vaccine effectiveness vs. infection wanes for all ages  -Vaccine effectiveness vs. severe disease wanes for >60  -Booster shot is effective at decreasing infection for all age groups -Booster shot is effective at decreasing severe disease for >60 -Low rate of adverse events at this time  We don't know: -If effectiveness vs. severe disease wanes for people under 60  -If a booster shot improves effectiveness vs. severe disease for people under 60 -How long the booster helps (simply hasn't been enough time) My takeaways: -Boosters definitely should be rolled out for elderly and immunocompromised because their immunity to severe disease wanes and a booster is effective. It is predicted that Israel's hospital system would have been overwhelmed without boosters or if boosters for 60+ were rolled out weeks later. This emphasizes urgency of getting boosters out to high-risk populations in the US, we are a few months behind Israel.  -Vaccine protection vs. infection wanes for everyone and boosters improve that -There is not evidence to support waning immunity vs. severe disease for those under 60 or that a booster helps against severe disease in those groups -We won't have good data on how long the boosters are effective or on how well they work vs. severe disease in younger people just because it will take time to have enough cases of severe illness to be statistically meaningful edit: those are some big error bars on a lot of those plots. edit2: added info about Israeli hospital system predicted to be overwhelmed if no booster or boosters administered several weeks later. Yes, I know that these data do not break things down by immune status or underlying conditions but I'm lumping immunocompromised people in with the elderly because it seems entirely reasonable to do so and boosters are going to them in the US already  also also, this is all Pfizer vaccine. Moderna, J&J, and mixed regimens may be different especially I would think with regard to timeframes. Fritz the Horse fucked around with this message at 02:46 on Sep 18, 2021 |
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Sep 18, 2021 02:33
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Oh also, I'm not sure what Israel's lockdown and reopening were like. The study says they fully reopened on March 7th. Does that mean no mask mandates or anything? Did Israel remain fully open since? Someone else can look into those if it's of interest, I need to graze for a bit.
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Sep 18, 2021 03:00
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Charles 2 of Spain posted:Did they publish this table which was in the original preprint (maybe it's integrated into the figure somewhere)? The actual published document does not appear to contain any data for groups under age 60, including the supplement. That table is not in there. It does appear integrated into the slide stack https://www.fda.gov/media/152205/download, specifically in slides #13, 14, and 15 all of which I posted above. I'll repost them here: edit: it's formatted/standardized differently but appears to be the same stuff as in your table. Fritz the Horse fucked around with this message at 03:35 on Sep 18, 2021 |
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Sep 18, 2021 03:32
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Platystemon posted:Sturgis led to fewer documented cases than Lollapalooza. Err in what way? And what's the source for this? Serious question. This sounds like something Kristi Noem is spouting. I'm a South Dakota resident. The major healthcare provider in Rapid City (Monument Health) just announced this week they were doing emergency conversions of regular hospital beds to ICU because they are overflowing with COVID cases. This is literally the worst the pandemic has ever been in the Black Hills region. Notably, this is not the case east-river in Sioux Falls. (for those unfamiliar, Rapid City is the population and healthcare center in the Black Hills and western half of SD, Sioux Falls is the population and healthcare center in the eastern half) edit: I feel like "documented" is doing a lot of heavy lifting here Fritz the Horse fucked around with this message at 05:59 on Sep 18, 2021 |
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Sep 18, 2021 05:56
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Stickman posted:Thanks for posting your thoughts on the paper, Fritz! Sure! I'm by no means an epidemiologist but writing/reviewing scientific literature and grant proposals is a big part of my job and I do enjoy it. Like I mentioned earlier, it's helpful (and imo fun) to have a lively discussion on the actual scientific literature. Everyone brings a unique background and perspective and it's a good way to critically evaluate science. I'm certain I've missed some important bits or not analyzed some things correctly but that's okay. I'm perfectly fine with being wrong. I'm gonna take a minute as an educator and stand on my soapbox: those of you who are avid readers of COVID threads on SA would get a lot out of skimming through actual scientific literature. Spend a fraction of the time you devote to reading forums posts on evaluating the actual academic writing. It's good practice and our world needs more science- and media-literate people.
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Sep 18, 2021 06:07
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