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gradenko_2000
Oct 5, 2010

HELL SERPENT
Lipstick Apathy

Corsec posted:

Is this saying that carbon emission intensity is inversely associated with economic equality? That is, in a more unequal society the increase in rich people's emissions is more than offset by the decline in poor and middle people's emissions? Because if so that is, uh, very challenging for ecosocialism. Pretty much any optimistic future scenario emphasizes the role of climate equity, especially internationally.

Not really sure how to integrate this with my pre-existing worldview. Like, from a purely carbon emissions perspective would the conclusion be that it is better to have massive inequality? If we equalized the economy would carbon emisssions per capita increase even though the rich lived less emissive lifestyles?

You just showed me that I still have cracks left to ping lol lmao.

no, the US exported all of its productive capacity elsewhere, which is why carbon emissions went down by some metrics

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Tungsten
Aug 10, 2004

Your Working Boy

Corsec posted:

Is this saying that carbon emission intensity is inversely associated with economic equality? That is, in a more unequal society the increase in rich people's emissions is more than offset by the decline in poor and middle people's emissions? Because if so that is, uh, very challenging for ecosocialism. Pretty much any optimistic future scenario emphasizes the role of climate equity, especially internationally.

Not really sure how to integrate this with my pre-existing worldview. Like, from a purely carbon emissions perspective would the conclusion be that it is better to have massive inequality? If we equalized the economy would carbon emisssions per capita increase even though the rich lived less emissive lifestyles?

You just showed me that I still have cracks left to ping lol lmao.

it is possible to have an economy in which every action does not create carbon emissions and degrade the environment. however, before anyone seriously considers that possibility, we’re going to have to burn the earth’s entire supply of fossil fuels and coat the entire surface in plastic shards and heavy metals

Wakko
Jun 9, 2002
Faboo!
don't worry, perfect climate equity is in our future. we can guarantee it at this point

RandomBlue
Dec 30, 2012

hay guys!


Biscuit Hider

hmm, how many capitas we got now compared to 1913?

oh word?

Colonel Cancer
Sep 26, 2015

Tune into the fireplace channel, you absolute buffoon
Nothing more equalizing than total extinction :skeltal:

Corsec
Apr 17, 2007

gradenko_2000 posted:

no, the US exported all of its productive capacity elsewhere, which is why carbon emissions went down by some metrics

The emissions peak and equality peak is about 1975-1980, which is before the current trend of post-industrialization and outsourcing. So you think that after we corrected for outsourcing the carbon per capita graph would actually show overall growth after 1980 with maybe dips at 2000, 2008 and 2020? Also the inequality graph doesn't include assets, which I would expect to show even higher inequality after 1980 due to all the financialization bullshit.

The correlation between the graphs looks a lot weaker before 1960 than afterwards. And after about 1980 both the actual inequality and actual emissions were higher than the graphs suggest. Presumably the 1960-1980 period can probably be dismissed as an aberration that won't be repeated? OK, that all makes sense, thanks. I can conclude that the correlation on that graph doesn't accurately represent the real world.


Tungsten posted:

it is possible to have an economy in which every action does not create carbon emissions and degrade the environment. however, before anyone seriously considers that possibility, we’re going to have to burn the earth’s entire supply of fossil fuels and coat the entire surface in plastic shards and heavy metals

Yeah, because the biggest fossil fuel users won't stop unless they are violently forced to, but you can't possess the industrialization necessary for that violent force unless you also use a comparable amount of fossil fuels.


Wakko posted:

don't worry, perfect climate equity is in our future. we can guarantee it at this point

Technically, it's not going to be *our* future. It's the future that belongs to whatever organisms remain to consume the plastic.

Harold Fjord
Jan 3, 2004
A lot of plastic shards are flammable

Perry Mason Jar
Feb 24, 2006

"Della? Take a lid"

Corsec posted:

The emissions peak and equality peak is about 1975-1980, which is before the current trend of post-industrialization and outsourcing. So you think that after we corrected for outsourcing the carbon per capita graph would actually show overall growth after 1980 with maybe dips at 2000, 2008 and 2020? Also the inequality graph doesn't include assets, which I would expect to show even higher inequality after 1980 due to all the financialization bullshit.

The correlation between the graphs looks a lot weaker before 1960 than afterwards. And after about 1980 both the actual inequality and actual emissions were higher than the graphs suggest. Presumably the 1960-1980 period can probably be dismissed as an aberration that won't be repeated? OK, that all makes sense, thanks. I can conclude that the correlation on that graph doesn't accurately represent the real world.

Yeah, because the biggest fossil fuel users won't stop unless they are violently forced to, but you can't possess the industrialization necessary for that violent force unless you also use a comparable amount of fossil fuels.

Technically, it's not going to be *our* future. It's the future that belongs to whatever organisms remain to consume the plastic.

There's no economic or political configuration that can save us now. Hope this helps

Colonel Cancer
Sep 26, 2015

Tune into the fireplace channel, you absolute buffoon
Hey now posadism is an economic or political configuration, vulcans should be here in a few!

Corsec
Apr 17, 2007

Harold Fjord posted:

A lot of plastic shards are flammable

If they are flammable then they are also exothermic which makes them easier to metabolise, I think. So those will be the plastics that future organisms prefer to eat.

It is our duty to the wellbeing of future generations to manufacture and release plastics that are more flammable.

Perry Mason Jar posted:

There's no economic or political configuration that can save us now. Hope this helps

What is the name for the economic and politcal configuration based on eating flammable plastics? If they are colony organisms, do they count as good socialists?

Slow News Day
Jul 4, 2007

Perry Mason Jar posted:

There's no economic or political configuration that can save us now. Hope this helps

Yeah. The whole "CO2 per capita" thing is nothing more than an exercise in moralism and playing favorites. The climate doesn't give a gently caress about declining US emissions per capita, or China having lower emissions per capita than the US, or anything like that. The thing that actually matters is total CO2 in the atmosphere. From that perspective, things are either going well or going badly. We all know the answer.

Hubbert
Mar 25, 2007

At a time of universal deceit, telling the truth is a revolutionary act.

Perry Mason Jar posted:

There's no economic or political configuration that can save us now. Hope this helps

Wow. Get this Malthusian ecofascist talk out of here!

Paradoxish
Dec 19, 2003

Will you stop going crazy in there?
The funny thing about focusing on per capita emissions for the US in particular is that it's extremely close to open climate change denialism.

You're essentially saying that we solved climate change decades ago, because any observed modern warming would be inconsistent with the idea that the situation has actually been improving since at least the late 70s.

err
Apr 11, 2005

I carry my own weight no matter how heavy this shit gets...

Slow News Day posted:

Yeah. The whole "CO2 per capita" thing is nothing more than an exercise in moralism and playing favorites. The climate doesn't give a gently caress about declining US emissions per capita, or China having lower emissions per capita than the US, or anything like that. The thing that actually matters is total CO2 in the atmosphere. From that perspective, things are either going well or going badly. We all know the answer.

American line go down. Nature is healing.

Corsec
Apr 17, 2007

Slow News Day posted:

Yeah. The whole "CO2 per capita" thing is nothing more than an exercise in moralism and playing favorites. The climate doesn't give a gently caress about declining US emissions per capita, or China having lower emissions per capita than the US, or anything like that. The thing that actually matters is total CO2 in the atmosphere. From that perspective, things are either going well or going badly. We all know the answer.

Excuse me, but growth-based society really, really cares about moralism and playing favourites because it justifies giving and/or withholding treats (for the people who still receive them anyway) to make people support more growth.

The last remaining humans will tell campfire stories about how those other people's ancestors hosed everything up and killed the world.

The Oldest Man
Jul 28, 2003

Corsec posted:

Excuse me, but growth-based society really, really cares about moralism and playing favourites because it justifies giving and/or withholding treats (for the people who still receive them anyway) to make people support more growth.

The last remaining humans will tell campfire stories about how those other people's ancestors hosed everything up and killed the world.

Greedy Developing Countries is going to be the narrative order of the day long before "last remaining humans"

bedpan
Apr 23, 2008

The Oldest Man posted:

Greedy Developing Countries is going to be the narrative order of the day long before "last remaining humans"

Corsec
Apr 17, 2007

The Oldest Man posted:

Greedy Developing Countries is going to be the narrative order of the day long before "last remaining humans"

Oh lol I didn't mean to imply that we weren't already doing that lmao. I mean that the last humans will *still* be doing that.

It looks like the narrative is 'overpopulated' rather than 'greedy'. 'Overpopulated' will also be a lot more applicable to the many, many refugees coming from developing countries.

SixteenShells
Sep 30, 2021

The Oldest Man posted:

Greedy Developing Countries is going to be the narrative order of the day long before "last remaining humans"
there was that article last week in the succ thread about Maasai being forced off their land because of pressure from international finance and ecotourism:

https://www.theatlantic.com/magazine/archive/2024/05/maasai-tribe-tanzania-forced-land-evictions-serengeti/677835/
https://archive.ph/edibJ

The Oldest Man
Jul 28, 2003

Corsec posted:

Oh lol I didn't mean to imply that we weren't already doing that lmao. I mean that the last humans will *still* be doing that.

It looks like the narrative is 'overpopulated' rather than 'greedy'. 'Overpopulated' will also be a lot more applicable to the many, many refugees coming from developing countries.

"Overpopulated" will be the narrative when developing countries don't invest in their own development enough to hang on when climate change begins to cause megadeaths and those refugees start flooding toward rich countries' borders.

"Greedy" will be the narrative when developing countries do invest in their own development enough to hang on when climate change begins to cause megadeaths and they're not a major source of refugees but they're not hitting punitive emissions reduction targets.

Corsec
Apr 17, 2007

The Oldest Man posted:

"Overpopulated" will be the narrative when developing countries don't invest in their own development enough to hang on when climate change begins to cause megadeaths and those refugees start flooding toward rich countries' borders.

"Greedy" will be the narrative when developing countries do invest in their own development enough to hang on when climate change begins to cause megadeaths and they're not a major source of refugees but they're not hitting punitive emissions reduction targets.

OK, got it. For example; China will be deemed "Greedy", Nigeria will be deemed "Overpopulated".

Scarabrae
Oct 7, 2002
Probation
Can't post for 3 days!
gently caress its hot already lol

The Oldest Man
Jul 28, 2003

adam driver 'more' gif https://www.commondreams.org/news/biden-offshore-oil-terminal

Kal
Jun 3, 2007


quote:

Allie Rosenbluth, U.S. manager at Oil Change International, noted that the project has been approved despite the International Energy Agency's clear assessment in 2021 that "all new investments in oil and gas projects must stop if the world is going to reach its climate goals," including limiting planetary heating to 1.5°C

lmao they're still going to talk about limiting warming to 1.5 even after we pass 2 aren't they

Perry Mason Jar
Feb 24, 2006

"Della? Take a lid"

Colonel Cancer posted:

Hey now posadism is an economic or political configuration, vulcans should be here in a few!

I retract my statement

spiritual bypass
Feb 19, 2008

Grimey Drawer

Scarabrae posted:

gently caress its hot already lol

feels good, got the windows open

Erghh
Sep 24, 2007

"Let him speak!"

Kal posted:

lmao they're still going to talk about limiting warming to 1.5 even after we pass 2 aren't they

they'll talk about limiting it to 3 and it will always have been the target, until we blow past it. all the other temps will get memory holed. the target temp will only move upward. number can only go up.

there's an obama quote around where he's doing that with 1.5 and 2.5 iirc.

Perry Mason Jar
Feb 24, 2006

"Della? Take a lid"
I love Endless Summer :cool:

Microplastics
Jul 6, 2007

:discourse:
It's what's for dinner.
Don't forget, we are "temporarily" above 1.5C. It'll come down any day now

quiggy
Aug 7, 2010

[in Russian] Oof.


Microplastics posted:

Don't forget, we are "temporarily" above 1.5C. It'll come down any day now

the universe will someday just be black holes spinning in infinity, this is all temporary, consume without fear my friend

RaisinPower
Jan 25, 2024

A bug bounced of my windshield yesterday. First time that's happened in years. I immediately felt bad about it. When I was a kid in the 80s it was just annoying. Now I go out of my way to take every bug I find out of the house and set it free. It's a weird cognitive dissonance. I know the chance of any species surviving more than another decade or two is near zero, but I still want to do whatever I can to help. Maybe my head is still infested with notions of hopeless battles against impossible odds, like I'm a peasant with a pitchfork in a last stand against a field of war elephants or something.

The Oldest Man
Jul 28, 2003

Kal posted:

lmao they're still going to talk about limiting warming to 1.5 even after we pass 2 aren't they

Microplastics posted:

Don't forget, we are "temporarily" above 1.5C. It'll come down any day now

They're going to be talking about limiting warming to 1.5c when the atmosphere boils off

kater
Nov 16, 2010


this reads exceptionally coming up with a statistic to tutt tutt about. like I don’t know poo poo about anything I don’t know what chinas doing I don’t know if it’s good or bad but I have seen pedantic shitposting before this is some crying to Paris accords qcs poo poo

gradenko_2000
Oct 5, 2010

HELL SERPENT
Lipstick Apathy

kater posted:

this reads exceptionally coming up with a statistic to tutt tutt about. like I don’t know poo poo about anything I don’t know what chinas doing I don’t know if it’s good or bad but I have seen pedantic shitposting before this is some crying to Paris accords qcs poo poo

A nice follow-up question would be "just how much coal power is being created everywhere else?"

The Oldest Man
Jul 28, 2003

kater posted:

this reads exceptionally coming up with a statistic to tutt tutt about. like I don’t know poo poo about anything I don’t know what chinas doing I don’t know if it’s good or bad but I have seen pedantic shitposting before this is some crying to Paris accords qcs poo poo

Whenever the western press talks about China, it's always in terms of total emissions or total capacity for the whole country compared to their historical trend

Whenever the western press talks about the west, it's always per capita and always compared to their own country's historical trend

For some reason

e: also, it is totally forbidden to ever talk about how emissions are attributed or how the US's emissions can be going down when its fossil fuel exports are going up

The Oldest Man has issued a correction as of 02:11 on Apr 16, 2024

Scarabrae
Oct 7, 2002
Probation
Can't post for 3 days!
I’m just glad to know its all gonna work itself out

starkebn
May 18, 2004

"Oooh, got a little too serious. You okay there, little buddy?"
Can't remember if it was from a report, or just some random person saying it, but someone said the last time there was this much carbon in the atmosphere the global temperature was +7°C . If that's true, and that means that's where we're headed now, we aren't going to be able to manage this even if we stopped all further emissions immediately.

All we can hope for is everyone to hold hands and help each other as best we can into an extreme future. Who thinks that's going to be the path we take?

Scarabrae
Oct 7, 2002
Probation
Can't post for 3 days!

starkebn posted:

Can't remember if it was from a report, or just some random person saying it, but someone said the last time there was this much carbon in the atmosphere the global temperature was +7°C . If that's true, and that means that's where we're headed now, we aren't going to be able to manage this even if we stopped all further emissions immediately.

All we can hope for is everyone to hold hands and help each other as best we can into an extreme future. Who thinks that's going to be the path we take?

it was Toby from the office

Paradoxish
Dec 19, 2003

Will you stop going crazy in there?
tbh the timescale for that is probably fine for humanity to adapt in the kind of limited sense of some humans living somewhere habitable and still engaging in, at a minimum, localized agricultural societies

the question is more whether something that happens along the way like ocean deoxygenation takes us out

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Nix Panicus
Feb 25, 2007

Some parts of the planet are going to remain habitable even in the +7 C scenario. Some humans will survive, although probably not at the current level of technology

This is why I'm advocating for a nuclear laser to destroy the moon and finish the job permanently

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