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Regarde Aduck
Oct 19, 2012

c l o u d k i t t e n
Grimey Drawer

JeremoudCorbynejad posted:

I guess this is as good a time as any to highlight the absolutely excellent Fall of Civilizations podcast, especially the episode on Roman Britain:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1whRd_c_irk

But also, I read this today, a fascinating little look at how the prophecy of the Limits to Growth have rather accurately predicted the course* of our own civilization's collapse and, if the chart is to be believed, we here in 2021 are experiencing the peak of society, it's all downhill from here: https://www.resilience.org/stories/2021-09-02/a-prayer-for-nonbelievers/




*assuming we weren't going to do anything about it to prepare (we didn't do anything about it to prepare)

i think we all knew things were only downhill from here

i don't know if it's a collapse though. I guess it depends on the ability to communicate. With the internet working and a continuity of knowledge and consensus reality i think most cultures will continue to exist. But a lot (billions) of vulnerable people are going to die. There is the wildcards of America and Russia who are both full of corruption and instability while possessing thousands of nukes. But, silver lining, maybe a few nukes can start a nuclear winter and solve the warming.

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Beefeater1980
Sep 12, 2008

My God, it's full of Horatios!






Gonzo McFee posted:

https://twitter.com/profdanhicks/status/1454779291850493955?s=19

It's good our PM has the historical understanding of a 14 year old on 4chan.

You’d be amazed / depressed how many people sincerely believe this to be true. I’ve had this “explained” to me by people from the US, China and the UAE. It’s a weirdly popular, weirdly global misunderstanding of history.

Antigravitas
Dec 8, 2019

Die Rettung fuer die Landwirte:
It's also, as far as I remember my history, literally the opposite of the truth. The empire grew and prospered as long as it could integrate its neighbours and started disintegrating when lost that ability. Basically, the empire consisted of many different peoples and fell (over a very long period of time) to petty squabbling.

radmonger
Jun 6, 2011

JeremoudCorbynejad posted:

:raise:

Limits to Growth was written in 1972 so I'm not sure what you mean by that. Anyway, it's not quite as simple as you make it out to be, wikipedia has a pretty good primer on the modelling behind it: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Limits_to_Growth

The predictions made in 1972 were not the ones shown in that graph. .

You can mathematically model a world in which depleting oil reserves lead to increasing energy prices which causes declining economic activity which causes increased mortality which causes population reductions. You can tweak the parameters on such a model so that it matches known history, in that all the negative effects are simply things that haven’t happened yet

But such a model will fail to predict the future the behavior of a world in which that is not a description of what is actually going to happen. For example, one in which global warming exists. After all, global warming was at most a speculative theory in the 70s, and was in any case not considered in the limits to growth model.

https://www.macrotrends.net/1369/crude-oil-price-history-chart

If the future turns out to be hosed up, that will be a political decision, not something logically derivable from math.

radmonger fucked around with this message at 00:32 on Nov 1, 2021

Mebh
May 10, 2010


Absolutely loving hilarious. The war against youths escalated tonight on the estate. After calling the police to their school twice and cackling about trying to get them ASBOs, the estate held a public vote on Halloween and agreed to leave candy out in bowls rather than knock on doors.

They then publicly coordinated that the bowls would be out at 5pm and announced it with a big banner. I'm sure you can guess what happened.

I was not there to watch it, recounting from the tails of gammon woe and gnashing of teeth, plus the literal bounties being placed on minors and threats to just "wait til bonfire night, we'll get them" I can only assume it went like this :

The clock struck 5:01 and Like an organised machine of track suited, highly trained terror machines a veritable army of youths poured from cars across the estate.

From door to door they ran, hooting and hollering with an ASDA bag in each hand. Upending plastic pumpkins full of chocolate, the residents could only watch in horror.

"They took my bowl!" yelled Susan!

"I didn't put sweets in mine, but bouncy balls and fake spiders. " Jane said sadly.

"so angry..." proclaimed Jennifer "they didn't even have costumes on."

Surveying the ruins and the weeping toddlers of his neighbours attempting to catch empty candy wrappers blowing in the wind, Paul quietly muttered under his breath "they probably aren't even from the estate"

As the youths fled the scene, ASDA bags full to the brim with candy, a lone watcher surveyed them. Leaning from their window they heard a youth say "let's head to Alfie's house"

Alfie, known about these parts as the candy King. "A clue!" Thought our industrious watcher. The PCSO was called and the name whispered in hushed tones.

Tomorrow a patrol would begin and plans were publicly made next year to do Halloween a day early...



They're all loving mad. This is going to end with them putting a poor teenager on a bonfire on the 5th isn't it?

endlessmonotony
Nov 4, 2009

by Fritz the Horse

Mebh posted:

They're all loving mad. This is going to end with them putting a poor teenager on a bonfire on the 5th isn't it?

It's for the greater good.

Clarence
May 3, 2012

The greater good.

RockyB
Mar 8, 2007


Dog Therapy: Shockingly Good

Cefte posted:

Clearly a second-rate amateur historian - he could have gone for the Bronze Age Collapse, with added headlines about SEA PEOPLES.

JeremoudCorbynejad posted:

I guess this is as good a time as any to highlight the absolutely excellent Fall of Civilizations podcast, especially the episode on Roman Britain:

Finally started listening to this the other day. Came across the whole 'Sea peoples were actually climate refugees' theory and drat that hit me surprisingly hard.

https://journals.indexcopernicus.com/api/file/viewByFileId/906340.pdf

E: As we're talking about this again, here's the 50 year update on Limits to Growth from KPMG saying 'Yeah that was pretty accurate': https://advisory.kpmg.us/articles/2021/limits-to-growth.html

RockyB fucked around with this message at 02:33 on Nov 1, 2021

OwlFancier
Aug 22, 2013

Found the Shaun video about the "immigration killed rome" crap.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WqCCx4wj79o

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Guavanaut
Nov 27, 2009

Looking At Them Tittys
1969 - 1998



Toilet Rascal
Oh hey it's November again

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