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Has DND ever tried to forecast global events a la Tetlock's superforecasting book? Seems like there are plenty of people here who get passionate about their views. Wonder if we can use that sort of thing for good by aggregating it and seeing if we can get a wisdom of the crowds effect going. What kinds of predictions would you be interested in knowing the odds of? oliveoil fucked around with this message at 05:33 on Oct 3, 2021 |
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Oct 3, 2021 05:24
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Silver2195 posted:That's a bit overstated, but in general, yeah, the records of the people here who go around making predictions most prominently are not very good. Worse, some of them will twist their own words afterward to argue that the events that proved them wrong actually proved them right, so they avoid having to reevaluate the assumptions behind their predictions. We could do something unambiguous. E.g., everyone give a probability that the US gets into a hot war with China or Russia within the next two years. Or infrastructure deal that is currently going on:l. We could all assign probabilities to these outcomes: 1. No infrastructure bill 2. Infrastructure bill worth less than $1T 3. Infrastructure bill $1-2T 4. Etc If someone says there's a 100% probability that the infrastructure bill will pass with $3T in spending then they can't turn around and claim to be right when it passes with $4T in spending. Plus I think if this less as competition and more collaborative. Rather than trying to convince each other to change our minds, I'd like to see what average and median probabilities D&D comes up with. Is D&D smarter as a group than anyone individually?
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Oct 6, 2021 00:13
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SMEGMA_MAIL posted:“Superforcasting” is just having people who get really good at fermi problems aggregate their guesses about stuff. That's why I think we can do it better. Since none of us are trying to please members of the public and we're all anonymous so there's no ego.
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Oct 14, 2021 22:11
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