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Hellblazer187 posted:https://www.bls.gov/charts/employment-situation/civilian-labor-force-participation-rate.htm How much room is still open for debate, just because a lot of that drop was pandemic-triggered retirement. Not just "early retirement" they might have second thoughts about either: pre-pandemic a lot of people had been sticking in jobs past retirement age for various reasons. A lot of people were on their way out of the workforce anyway and the pandemic just changed the timetable. There are similar issues with those who have left the workforce to focus on child care, and they might not all be gettable in the near future, especially if a longer-term CTC/pre-K/etc passes.
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Nov 11, 2021 17:00
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It's been darkly funny to watch increasingly unhinged rhetoric around all this because anybody given a platform to opine about it is by definition ideologically incapable of understanding that these people just got new jobs that possibly pay better but definitely do not involve being paid poorly to be the smiling face on the other side of America's oppositional defiance disorder
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Nov 11, 2021 17:00
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Owlofcreamcheese posted:The most recent US unemployment rate was 4.6 percent. Lowest it's been in ages. Lower than pre-pandemic in a lot of places. Yep work force shrank by a large amount. Like 5 million.
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Nov 11, 2021 17:16
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All this could be solved in a month by easing immigration. I wonder how much push big corps like Amazon are putting on the administration to do just that. Meanwhile the xenophobia of the majority of the country would make that a death sentence at the polls.
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Nov 11, 2021 17:58
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Bar Ran Dun posted:Yep work force shrank by a large amount. Like 5 million. That would explain a lot. The whole idea of thousands of lazy entitled millennials who'll come crawling back when they run out of Bidenbux to live it up on was always a fantasy. Oracle posted:All this could be solved in a month by easing immigration. I wonder how much push big corps like Amazon are putting on the administration to do just that. Meanwhile the xenophobia of the majority of the country would make that a death sentence at the polls. Wasn't there already a slow of immigration and even a lot of people going back to Mexico, due to a mix of conditions in the US getting just that bad and possibly improving in Mexico?
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Nov 12, 2021 11:04
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I'm legit surprised this thread has so little activity. Maybe people are a bit in denial, maybe they think things will just magically Nintendo dissolve into everything going back to normal. Maybe the price hikes haven't really affected the forum's bottom line yet. Hard to tell. I guess Christmas will either kill the thread forever or explode it to the top of the forum depending on what ends up happening.
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Nov 12, 2021 16:11
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Cpt_Obvious posted:I'm legit surprised this thread has so little activity. Maybe people are a bit in denial, maybe they think things will just magically Nintendo dissolve into everything going back to normal. Maybe the price hikes haven't really affected the forum's bottom line yet. Hard to tell.
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Nov 12, 2021 16:36
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its really not a crisis for a lot of people. its annoying to have higher prices but a general increase in grocery costs is not the same as a pending famine. high inflation sucks but not everything that sucks is a sign of the imminent collapse of civilization imo, if we made it through a generational-scale pandemic then i think we can bear a 10% increase in the cost of milk and bacon
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Nov 12, 2021 19:03
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Mr. Fall Down Terror posted:its really not a crisis for a lot of people. its annoying to have higher prices but a general increase in grocery costs is not the same as a pending famine. high inflation sucks but not everything that sucks is a sign of the imminent collapse of civilization imo, if we made it through a generational-scale pandemic then i think we can bear a 10% increase in the cost of milk and bacon You're just an agent for SLEEPY JOE.
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Nov 12, 2021 19:08
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Now that I think of it, that name wouldn't sound too out of place in a Metal Gear game
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Nov 12, 2021 19:14
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 i've been eating less meat and walking more places so people complaining about higher gas and steak prices just seems to me like the same stuff the RWM has been whining about for fifteen years i guesseconomic turbulence is a pain in the rear end but i dunno what getting obsessive is going to accomplish, the only thing i can control is what i consume (and how much of it)
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Nov 12, 2021 19:14
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I'm just used to thing I order taking two to three times longer to arrive and stores regularly being sold out of certain things at this point. Also I'm not expecting capitalism to fix the failed system anytime soon without some major government intervention.
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Nov 12, 2021 19:34
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Inflation in food and consumer goods is something we haven't seen much of in a while but there's been rampant inflation in housing/education/healthcare etc for several decades. Inflation in stuff people have to buy is really nothing new. Pretty bummed I still can't get a video card though
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Nov 12, 2021 19:40
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Cpt_Obvious posted:I'm legit surprised this thread has so little activity. Maybe people are a bit in denial, maybe they think things will just magically Nintendo dissolve into everything going back to normal. Maybe the price hikes haven't really affected the forum's bottom line yet. Hard to tell. What would happen?
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Nov 12, 2021 19:55
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I'm guessing the most that happen is a lot of people go HOME FOR THE HOLIDAYS during a pandemic, again, and then die to a preventable disease because they refused JOE BIDEN'S TOXIC JAB more than there being any sort of flashpoint with the supply chain issues.
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Nov 12, 2021 20:18
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Sorry, just heard back and most of the posts are stuck in a container outside the port of LA, should be an ample supply in time for Christmas I'm told
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Nov 12, 2021 20:23
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joe football posted:Inflation in food and consumer goods is something we haven't seen much of in a while but there's been rampant inflation in housing/education/healthcare etc for several decades. Inflation in stuff people have to buy is really nothing new. Pretty bummed I still can't get a video card though Feel free to dump on me if I'm wrong, but I think the big distinction I see between food/consumer good inflation and inflation in housing/education/healthcare is how often people have to confront the cost and/or other expectations. You buy food and gas almost every day. You very concretely see it chip away at your account balance and you can't avoid paying for it. Housing and education, on the other hand, are purchases where you're almost expected to go into debt because it is usually expensive anyway and it is (supposedly) an investment in yourself that will pay off later. Because most people could never afford to pay it without borrowing anyway, I think it led to a very perverse market dynamic where you don't get house purchasers or students pushing back the way they would if you were dealing with the sale of, say, a jacket. The ultimate cost is more easily punted out of sight and out of mind. And healthcare involves expenses that many people don't even want to think about having to pay because of our attitudes to being sick and, if you're lucky, you have insurance. I think the whole mechanism behind setting prices for healthcare is completely opaque for almost everyone outside the pharmaceutical and insurance sectors. Again, the inflation doesn't rouse the same passions and the whole argument about controlling healthcare costs has been swallowed up by America's lovely version of the "socialism versus capitalism" argument.
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Nov 12, 2021 20:33
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Eric Cantonese posted:Housing and education, on the other hand, are purchases where you're almost expected to go into debt because it is usually expensive anyway and it is (supposedly) an investment in yourself that will pay off later. Because most people could never afford to pay it without borrowing anyway, I think it led to a very perverse market dynamic where you don't get house purchasers or students pushing back the way they would if you were dealing with the sale of, say, a jacket. The ultimate cost is more easily punted out of sight and out of mind. Housing is even trickier because for a lot of people paying a higher sticker price is still less per month than it was just a few years ago due to how low interest rates have been. That's partly why prices kept pushing up. The buyers that were entering the market were way more qualified than they usually are and they could qualify for more.
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Nov 12, 2021 20:54
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Cpt_Obvious posted:I'm legit surprised this thread has so little activity. Maybe people are a bit in denial, maybe they think things will just magically Nintendo dissolve into everything going back to normal. Maybe the price hikes haven't really affected the forum's bottom line yet. Hard to tell. Well, since you are surprised by the lack of discussion, I feel like you must have something really interesting to say about it besides "it's weird that people aren't saying anything interesting about it."  I also enjoy the posts from people with logistics expertise, but I think there's room for people to mention the individual impacts on themselves, too, to give a wider picture. But the effets are not evenly distributed, and the kind of people who post on the SA forums (early middle aged introvert computer touchers, many working from home, many childless) are probably among the least effected. Which is, of course, a problem in and of itself, and says a lot about how our society is organized. I'm sure all of us will feel some serious effects before (if) things straighten out - but so far I'm still just dealing with slightly elevated grocery bills and those deeply traumatizing times I couldn't find a PS4 controller or white dress shirt. Hard to see how Christmas will go - it's probably good that people had their expectations preemptively lowered, even though that's not going to keep them from being mad. Mellow Seas fucked around with this message at 21:01 on Nov 12, 2021 |
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Nov 12, 2021 20:55
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Mr. Fall Down Terror posted:its really not a crisis for a lot of people. its annoying to have higher prices but a general increase in grocery costs is not the same as a pending famine. high inflation sucks but not everything that sucks is a sign of the imminent collapse of civilization imo, if we made it through a generational-scale pandemic then i think we can bear a 10% increase in the cost of milk and bacon If one is a well over professional it’s not that big of a deal. Specific things will be unavailable intermittently. Where it will be a big deal: If you have a necessary durable good or vehicle purchase and can’t eat the price spike. If you work in manufacturing and the company you work for isn’t figuring it out as far as securing alternative inputs goes or just gets randomly hosed by bad luck and they stop production. So... Most people will be mildly irritated occasionally with higher expenses . Some people will have a crisis because a big item they need like a fridge or car is now out of reach entirely. Other people will lose jobs and work.
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Nov 12, 2021 21:37
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I work in mental health and with the homeless. In the mental health side there have been some impacts, like the labtechs having issues with getting new supplies for doing their work. But personally we are so backstockpiled with things from the heavy days of the pandemic that things being late are not impacting us currently, I am sure it will catch up. For the homeless side its dialed down the rate of donations, but frankly the little old church ladies who bring stuff are still coming fairly regularly.
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Nov 12, 2021 21:45
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I'm lucky. In NYC, I have seen some prices gradually and continuously increasing since the pandemic started, but I've never been full-on unable to buy something I've needed. Delivery times are still pretty good. My in-laws in the Westchester suburbs have had to wait forever to get their broken washing machine replaced. My mother also had a similar appliance issue. A friend of mine who does IT for a crypto startup says almost all the equipment he needs for his job is hard to get so he has had to go to eBay like it's 1999 all over again. That sounds horrible.
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Nov 12, 2021 21:45
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One of the BBQ/Smoking youtubers I follow actually put out a video discussing alternatives to brisket, because the price has gotten so high. Which is ironic, as brisket is supposed to be a "cheap cut". He came up with chuck roast, and was happy with the results.
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Nov 12, 2021 21:46
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Eric Cantonese posted:
Maybe he should stop punching himself in the dick?
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Nov 12, 2021 21:47
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I should say there was a personal issue with my spouses car engine replacement, but the engines finally arrived and we should have the car back by thanskgiving.
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Nov 12, 2021 21:49
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Solkanar512 posted:One of the BBQ/Smoking youtubers I follow actually put out a video discussing alternatives to brisket, because the price has gotten so high. Which is ironic, as brisket is supposed to be a "cheap cut". I'm sure the pandemic made this much worse, but I feel like this has been happening ever since food shows became popular on Food Network and Youtube. Everybody wants to slow cook "cheap" cuts of meat to show off their pot roast or ragu skills so those off cuts are not so cheap anymore. Oxtail. It's so hot right now. Oxtail.
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Nov 12, 2021 21:49
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Eric Cantonese posted:I'm lucky. In NYC, I have seen some prices gradually and continuously increasing since the pandemic started, but I've never been full-on unable to buy something I've needed. Delivery times are still pretty good.
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Nov 12, 2021 21:52
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Mellow Seas posted:I think there's a big disconnect between major metros and everywhere else (and maybe even more specific than that, if the city is okay and Westchester isn't) - I am worried that a long term situation could arise where basically everywhere that isn't a center city or adjacent gentrified area will start to see the kind of lack of support and steady economic decline that we have associated with small industrial cities over the last 50 years. To be fair, I think I'd run into an issue with a laundry or washing machine too even though I'm in NYC. (I had to replace a toaster oven (the horror!) and it took a lot of work to track down the one I wanted.) Certain goods have been impacted more than others. I'm hoping that in the medium term this all works out as either the pandemic dies down and/or supply networks adapt and prices get high enough for the private sector to get off its rear end. I agree though that it's creepy how uneven the impact has been and it's affected my thoughts on where and how I want to live in the future. Bottom Liner posted:Maybe he should stop punching himself in the dick? It's a good gig for his needs. I can't judge.
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Nov 12, 2021 21:55
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It's me, the guy who doesn't have to worry about Christmas or gift giving season. Look at me lord over everyone, laughing as they cry cause Santa turned the other way in 2021. But is dealing with a constant firehose of poo poo at work trying to get chemicals and prevent lines down.
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Nov 12, 2021 22:12
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Eric Cantonese posted:I'm sure the pandemic made this much worse, but I feel like this has been happening ever since food shows became popular on Food Network and Youtube. Everybody wants to slow cook "cheap" cuts of meat to show off their pot roast or ragu skills so those off cuts are not so cheap anymore. This is a great point, and Food Network/HGTV are absolute blights on our civilization.
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Nov 12, 2021 22:19
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Solkanar512 posted:This is a great point, and Food Network/HGTV are absolute blights on our civilization. People need to eat their assigned foods only
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Nov 12, 2021 23:52
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A lot of people don't connect systems with their personal life. Supply chain drama is incredibly esoteric to people just wanting to live their lives and seeing higher prices at the pump or their food prices go up. Like I've had so many conversations with people who's job was directly hosed by Trump tariffs who were big supporters of Trump tariffs.
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Nov 12, 2021 23:57
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Owlofcreamcheese posted:People need to eat their assigned foods only As a stoner and somebody who generally speaking eats too much it's weird to me that people would ever want to look at food that they aren't eating. But to each his own. Considering most of the stuff people watch on TV is people screaming at each other or shooting each other, it's probably a nice thing that a lot of people like to watch somebody cook.
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Nov 13, 2021 00:08
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Mellow Seas posted:I think there's a big disconnect between major metros and everywhere else (and maybe even more specific than that, if the city is okay and Westchester isn't, since Westchester is not exactly on the periphery of the NYC metro area). I am worried that a long term situation could arise where basically everywhere that isn't a center city or adjacent gentrified area will start to see the kind of lack of support and steady economic decline that we have associated with small industrial cities over the last 50 years.
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Nov 13, 2021 00:11
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Jaxyon posted:A lot of people don't connect systems with their personal life. I think most people's personal life has NOT been strongly effected. I think the spotty and random nature of shortages makes this more annoying than scary so far. If specific things seem to start being totally inaccessible I think people will start worrying more. Now most stuff is out then comes back then something else is out, and prices are rising but still to prices that are prices people have seen before on things.
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Nov 13, 2021 00:21
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I know you said constrained/under competition and not scarce, but I want to stress that point more. We could absolutely house and feed everyone on this planet. The corporate overlords and politicians protecting them just choose not to for profit. There is no shortage of resources, only manufactured scarcity for capitalism.
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Nov 13, 2021 00:22
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I think it's because this topic requires more specialized knowledge than the typical goon has. For climate change, national politics, tech companies, housing issues, and other common D&D topics, many goons have just enough of an understanding to shitpost on topic. But the typical goon doesn't know a drat thing about logistics, so they can't even stay on topic when trying to shitpost here. That said, the trucker issues have been a long time coming. It's normal for truckers to long for the good old days, because when adjusted for inflation, the median US wage for long haul truckers has not reached their 1980 levels. And long haul truckers still have it better than the short haul truckers that take things from the ports (like LA port) to the local (LA) warehouse. Those people were under even more abusive contracts than the long haul truckers. http://websites.uwlax.edu/tbrooks/prof/published/Ch03.pdf https://www.businessinsider.com/truck-driver-salary-decrease-pay-cut-2018-9 https://time.com/6116853/truck-driver-shortage-supply-chain/
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Nov 13, 2021 02:52
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Owlofcreamcheese posted:. If specific things seem to start being totally inaccessible I think people will start worrying more. Specific things are basically inaccessible. They just aren’t things you are interacting with. You aren’t trying to repair a marina or get a boat part. You aren’t trying to get a roof contractor. You aren’t working at a factory that is laying you off. You probably aren’t in need of a car. You aren’t trying to arrange for the transportation of anything.
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Nov 13, 2021 03:03
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Bottom Liner posted:I know you said constrained/under competition and not scarce, but I want to stress that point more. We could absolutely house and feed everyone on this planet. The corporate overlords and politicians protecting them just choose not to for profit. There is no shortage of resources, only manufactured scarcity for capitalism. Actually, I want to emphasize the thing about trying to equalize an unequal system. I feel like a lot of time, people assume equalizing would mean lifting everyone up to their level, rather than the likely reality of them having to do with less too. Like, the average American has an ecological footprint five times greater than the biocapacity of the Earth can handle (Vietnam's position is about the level a truly equal world would settle at). Obviously you can increase efficiency to not have the drop be as precipitous, but then you get back to having to redesign the very fabric of society to support this - hence the death of exurbs and the like.
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Nov 13, 2021 08:18
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The idea of 'the Western lifestyle' seems funny to me given as mentioned so many young people in the West already aren't being given the capacity to maintain that lifestyle, but also not given any alternatives. They're still building endless suburban sprawl but no affordable high-density housing, and there's no real shift of cultural acceptance of multi-generational homes.
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Nov 13, 2021 08:21
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