Virginia is for Voters: Virginia State Elections thread

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Heck Yes! Loam!: Nov 15, 2004; a rich, friable soil containing a relatively equal mixture of sand and silt and a somewhat smaller proportion of clay.

NYT is doing live results without the needle

https://twitter.com/Nate_Cohn/status/1455664595390058500

20 minutes until polls begin to close.

# ? Nov 2, 2021 23:39

Adbot: ADBOT LOVES YOU

# ? May 4, 2024 06:52

FLIPADELPHIA: Apr 27, 2007; Heavy Shit; Grimey Drawer

Youth Decay posted:

https://twitter.com/USA_Polling/status/1455645290648719361
This is a very scary poll but I assume it's not counting early voters? I hope?

JFC this is how 2024 is going to go isn't it. Americans are the dumbest people on Earth.

# ? Nov 2, 2021 23:39

Thom12255: Feb 23, 2013; WHERE THE FUCK IS MY MONEY

FLIPADELPHIA posted:

JFC this is how 2024 is going to go isn't it. Americans are the dumbest people on Earth.

2024 is going to be the biggest dog whistle election in history if Youngkin's strategy works tonight.

# ? Nov 2, 2021 23:42

Zore: Sep 21, 2010; willfully illiterate, aggressively miserable sourpuss whose sole raison d�etre is to put other people down for liking the wrong things

FLIPADELPHIA posted:

JFC this is how 2024 is going to go isn't it. Americans are the dumbest people on Earth.

I mean exit polls were also showing Hillary winning Florida in a landslide in 2016 and Gavin Newsom going down in California a few months ago so maybe take it with a grain of salt or 6.

# ? Nov 2, 2021 23:44

Sax Mortar: Aug 24, 2004

Apparently we should be expecting a blue-red-blue wave in the results today:

https://twitter.com/lennybronner/status/1455649333018349571

Early voting should favor blue, in person will initially favor red, and then larger counties that report later will likely favor blue.

(this guy works for the Washington Post and does elections and stats stuff, so not a random person)

# ? Nov 2, 2021 23:48

camoseven: Dec 30, 2005; RODOLPHONE RINGIN'

Thom12255 posted:

Hurst is an idiot who got pulled over by the cops last night for driving around pulling up Youngkin yard signs outside polling stations WHILE HAVING A SUSPENDED LICENSE. Which still isn't as bad as getting pulled over for DUI's multiple times the past few years.

I've been giggling about this all day. Two incredibly stupid crimes in one!! Someone tell him yard signs don't vote

# ? Nov 2, 2021 23:50

Shammypants: May 25, 2004; Let me tell you about true luxury.

Getting flashbacks of the �good people� on this forum that harassed me about signage in 2020. Signage doesn�t mean a loving thing.

# ? Nov 2, 2021 23:54

Sanguinia: Jan 1, 2012; ~Everybody wants to be a cat~
~Because a cat's the only cat~
~Who knows where its at~

7 oclock, polls closed. Now the angst.

# ? Nov 3, 2021 00:03

Thom12255: Feb 23, 2013; WHERE THE FUCK IS MY MONEY

At least I no longer have to see Youngkin's dumb face every 5 minutes on youtube.

# ? Nov 3, 2021 00:04

Willa Rogers: Mar 11, 2005

CNN's exit polling said that white, non-college-educated voters, which comprise 36 percent of the state, are voting youngkin 3-1.

McAuliffe has a much smaller edge among white college-educated voters.

# ? Nov 3, 2021 00:06

Sanguinia: Jan 1, 2012; ~Everybody wants to be a cat~
~Because a cat's the only cat~
~Who knows where its at~

Willa Rogers posted:

CNN's exit polling said that white, non-college-educated voters, which comprise 36 percent of the state, are voting youngkin 3-1.

McAuliffe has a much smaller edge among white college-educated voters.

Sounds like a standard election to me.

# ? Nov 3, 2021 00:08

Shammypants: May 25, 2004; Let me tell you about true luxury.

Willa Rogers posted:

CNN's exit polling said that white, non-college-educated voters, which comprise 36 percent of the state, are voting youngkin 3-1.

McAuliffe has a much smaller edge among white college-educated voters.

How often has exit polling let us down or failed to give us the correct insights? It�s failed both ways frankly on too many occasions. Polling is one thing and various adjustments give you valuable insights but exit polling is trash.

# ? Nov 3, 2021 00:09

RBA Starblade: Apr 28, 2008; Going Home.

Games Idiot Court Jester

So how's Princess doing :v:

# ? Nov 3, 2021 00:09

Parakeet vs. Phone: Nov 6, 2009

RBA Starblade posted:

So how's Princess doing

Neck and neck with TMac at the moment.

# ? Nov 3, 2021 00:10

Willa Rogers: Mar 11, 2005

Another data point from CNN's exit polling: Among voters ages 18-29, McAuliffe's winning 53-46.

65+ = almost exactly flipped, 47-53.

# ? Nov 3, 2021 00:11

Mellow Seas: Oct 9, 2012; Can't post for 10 years!

Shammypants posted:

How often has exit polling let us down or failed to give us the correct insights? It�s failed both ways frankly on too many occasions. Polling is one thing and various adjustments give you valuable insights but exit polling is trash.

Yeah but that said these exit polls look terrible. Pretty unconfident right now.

# ? Nov 3, 2021 00:13

BIG FLUFFY DOG: Feb 16, 2011; On the internet, nobody knows you're a dog.

Usually when a candidate dominates media coverage they end up winning because voters don�t think more than Name-a-lot==good

# ? Nov 3, 2021 00:16

RBA Starblade: Apr 28, 2008; Going Home.

Games Idiot Court Jester

Mellow Seas posted:

Yeah but that said these exit polls look terrible. Pretty unconfident right now.

I said it in USNews but I've just been assuming McAuliffe's hosed since getting back from Florida where nobody shut up about statues, CRT, or banning "those" books. The chuds are horny for this one

Hopefully I'll be surprised but I doubt it

# ? Nov 3, 2021 00:17

Mellow Seas: Oct 9, 2012; Can't post for 10 years!

RBA Starblade posted:

I said it in USNews but I've just been assuming McAuliffe's hosed since getting back from Florida where nobody shut up about statues, CRT, or banning "those" books. The chuds are horny for this one

Hopefully I'll be surprised but I doubt it

I get that they're horny about it but the fact that there are D-leaning voters who see an election where Republicans are foaming at the mouth for racist-rear end reasons and go "meh, I don't really like voting, McAuliffe bores me" is loving infuriating.

# ? Nov 3, 2021 00:19

camoseven: Dec 30, 2005; RODOLPHONE RINGIN'

I hope Youngkin wins

# ? Nov 3, 2021 00:21

VitalSigns: Sep 3, 2011

Looks like it's gonna be a long night
https://mobile.twitter.com/Nate_Cohn/status/1455675732349292548

# ? Nov 3, 2021 00:22

RBA Starblade: Apr 28, 2008; Going Home.

Games Idiot Court Jester

camoseven posted:

I hope Youngkin wins

We figured

# ? Nov 3, 2021 00:23

Mellow Seas: Oct 9, 2012; Can't post for 10 years!

camoseven posted:

I hope Youngkin wins

Cool

# ? Nov 3, 2021 00:23

Willa Rogers: Mar 11, 2005

caps from Kornecki:

# ? Nov 3, 2021 00:24

camoseven: Dec 30, 2005; RODOLPHONE RINGIN'

Mellow Seas posted:

Cool

Agreed

# ? Nov 3, 2021 00:24

Mellow Seas: Oct 9, 2012; Can't post for 10 years!

Willa Rogers posted:

caps from Kornecki:

As Kornecki pointed out those Wise County numbers look messed up (turnout probably didn't fall from 16,500 to 450 - although it would be pretty good for Dems if it did!)

e: everything is pointing to a very tight race so far (surprise, surprise)

# ? Nov 3, 2021 00:26

Leon Trotsky 2012: Aug 27, 2009; YOU CAN TRUST ME!*

_{*Israeli Government-affiliated poster}

Initial Exit Polls from CBS:

(Prerequisite grains of salt regarding early exit polls)

quote:

Was Biden a factor in your vote?

No: 54%
Yes; Support: 21%
Yes; Oppose: 25%

Most Important Issues:

#1 Economy
#2 Education
#3 Taxes
#4 Coronavirus
#5 Immigration

Have you gotten the Coronavirus Vaccine?

McAuliffe Voters:

Yes: 96%
No: 4%

Youngkin Voters:

Yes: 71%
No: 29%

Party ID:

Democrat: 35%
Republican: 35%
Independent: 27%
Other: 3%

Gender:

Men:

McAuliffe: 45%
Youngkin: 54%

Women:

McAuliffe: 53%
Youngkin: 46%

McAuliffe has a lead of 21-24% in early vote.

Youngkin has a lead of 8-12% in election day vote.

~37% of the vote was early vote.

Edit: Additional Exit Poll Questions:

62% of voters say the VA economy is "Good" or "Excellent"
68% of voters were over age 45.

Black Voters:

McAuliffe: 88%
Youngkin: 11%

White Women:

McAuliffe: 42%
Youngkin: 56%

Suburban voters are 62% of the electorate.

Youngkin winning suburban men.
McAuliffe winning suburban women.

# ? Nov 3, 2021 00:27

Glumwheels: Jan 25, 2003; https://twitter.com/BidenHQ

Youngkin is trump in a sweater vest, not openly racist like trump just throwing out dog whistles to fire up the confederate fans. He will definitely outperform Trump�s numbers because he was a more palatable racist.

# ? Nov 3, 2021 00:27

camoseven: Dec 30, 2005; RODOLPHONE RINGIN'

Glumwheels posted:

Youngkin is trump in a sweater vest, not openly racist like trump just throwing out dog whistles to fire up the confederate fans. He will definitely outperform Trump�s numbers because he was a more palatable racist.

He's not nearly as funny or as charismatic as Trump

He does love that vest, though

# ? Nov 3, 2021 00:28

Willa Rogers: Mar 11, 2005

Mellow Seas posted:

As Kornecki pointed out those Wise County numbers look messed up (turnout probably didn't fall from 16,500 to 450 - although it would be pretty good for Dems if it did!)

e: everything is pointing to a very tight race so far (surprise, surprise)

Yeah, maybe that was early vote only or something.

# ? Nov 3, 2021 00:29

Kirios: Jan 26, 2010

This, uh, looks really bad for McAuliffe and for Democrats in 2022.

# ? Nov 3, 2021 00:29

BIG FLUFFY DOG: Feb 16, 2011; On the internet, nobody knows you're a dog.

Kirios posted:

This, uh, looks really bad for McAuliffe and for Democrats in 2022.

Literally everything has looked bad for Democrats in 2022.

# ? Nov 3, 2021 00:29

Mellow Seas: Oct 9, 2012; Can't post for 10 years!

BIG FLUFFY DOG posted:

Literally everything has looked bad for Democrats in 2022.

Yeah, ever since November 7, 2020 at about... 11:30 AM, the Democrats have been fighting a serious uphill battle.

# ? Nov 3, 2021 00:31

Bread Set Jettison: Jan 8, 2009

https://twitter.com/redistrict/status/1455678492675293192?s=21

# ? Nov 3, 2021 00:32

HisMajestyBOB: Oct 21, 2010; College Slice

That's just one voter though.

# ? Nov 3, 2021 00:33

camoseven: Dec 30, 2005; RODOLPHONE RINGIN'

Bread Set Jettison posted:

https://twitter.com/redistrict/status/1455678492675293192?s=21

That's where you can see the elk!!! So cool. Here's the ELK CAM, though it appears to be offline right now: https://dwr.virginia.gov/elk-cam/

# ? Nov 3, 2021 00:34

Mellow Seas: Oct 9, 2012; Can't post for 10 years!

Leon Trotsky 2012 posted:

McAuliffe has a lead of 21-24% in early vote.

Youngkin has a lead of 8-12% in election day vote.

~37% of the vote was early vote.

For what it's worth if these numbers were perfectly accurate (gigantic "if", obviously) that would suggest a final vote total for McAuliffe of between 50.1% and 52%.

# ? Nov 3, 2021 00:35