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Some of these so called numbers aren't even rational!
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Dec 6, 2021 19:29
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you know what I just found out? they got imaginary numbers nowadays they're just making em up!
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Dec 6, 2021 19:31
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What the hell kind of number is π??????
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Dec 6, 2021 19:35
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Chucktesla posted:I think ADoT and CPOE are good advanced stats for quarterbacks. QB rating isn't good unless it's a score that dips below a 39 because it's funny. PFF is dumb I have some serious problems with aDOT because it doesn't differentiate between like 3-yard dink 3-yard dunk 15-yard incomplete pass and 7-yard pass (complete) 7-yard pass (incomplete) 7-yard pass (complete) Both have an aDOT of 7, both had a 66.6% completion rate, but one set of passes was much more useful. One thing I've liked to do is look at IAY/PA and CAY/Cmp. You can see the frauds much faster. People were talking a big game about Drew Lock's aDOT in 2020, for example, but the difference in air yards between his completions and overall pass attempts were out of control
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Dec 6, 2021 19:59
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How does Cousins compare to Keenum and Bradford's Vikings stints?
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Dec 7, 2021 00:07
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There's an easy way to check and see if various stats are good: regression analysis. If the statistic correlates strongly with winning, it's a good statistic. If it correlates more strongly than a different statistic, it's better than that other one. It's why everyone in baseball knows that ops is better than AVG. Re Vikings: they are very poorly coached, particularly on offense. Their coaching, and play calling 100% costs them more points, more yards, and more wins than their quarterback play does.
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Dec 7, 2021 03:36
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Mega64 posted:How does Cousins compare to Keenum and Bradford's Vikings stints? Bradford 2016: EPA/play .084; League Rank (EPA/CPOE composite) 17th Keenum 2017: .181, 8th Cousins 2018: .020, 26th Cousins 2019: .214, 5th Cousins 2020: .216, 9th
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Dec 7, 2021 03:54
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thank you bill belichick for ending advanced stats once and for all i dont wanna see any of that blasphemy posted about the run not mattering ever again
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Dec 7, 2021 05:13
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Magicpants posted:thank you bill belichick for ending advanced stats once and for all hm yes, a once-in-a-decade game with gale-force winds that make it nearly impossible to throw the ball means thousands of other data points are wrong now
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Dec 7, 2021 17:28
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oh word? so what your saying is sometimes it works to run the ball, and actually there may be conditions where YOU CAN WIN A loving GAME WITHOUT A FORWARD PASS
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Dec 7, 2021 17:33
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Actually I think the best thread ever created by one individual effort in TFF was a statistical rundown of running back performances.
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Dec 7, 2021 17:40
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Haha yes well if simply do the calculations, any right thinking person will find that it is mathematically impossible to win a game running instead of passing. Ah well, nevertheless,
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Dec 7, 2021 18:59
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Magicpants posted:oh word? so what your saying is sometimes it works to run the ball, and actually there may be conditions where YOU CAN WIN A loving GAME WITHOUT A FORWARD PASS WEll chrome ate my lenghty post, so I'll summarize: "Running backs don't matter" is intentional hyperbole, and actually stands for the proposition that, - passing the ball is more valuable than the run, in most every context - there is not enough of a difference between the 'best' running backs and rest of the running backs to justify big contracts and high picks spent on them - Run blocking and scheme have more to do with rushing success than running back talent - The pass sets up the run, and not the other way around
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Dec 7, 2021 20:32
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blarzgh posted:WEll chrome ate my lenghty post, so I'll summarize: Yeah, I think the issue is there are running backs who are clearly dominant and clearly worth a great contract... for a few years and those years almost always happen during their rookie deals. Which is the real problem with the big contracts.
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Dec 7, 2021 20:36
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Kalli posted:Yeah, I think the issue is there are running backs who are clearly dominant and clearly worth a great contract... for a few years and those years almost always happen during their rookie deals. Which is the real problem with the big contracts. even when they are "dominant", their value added to the team's performance is mostly attributable to offensive line play and scheme, and still fails to surpass even below-average quarterback contributions.
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Dec 7, 2021 20:39
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blarzgh posted:WEll chrome ate my lenghty post, so I'll summarize: quote:- Run blocking and scheme have more to do with rushing success than running back talent quote:-there is not enough of a difference between the 'best' running backs and rest of the running backs to justify big contracts and high picks spent on them e: Let me spell it out for you like I've been going off on for the last 24 hours. The Bills couldn't stop the run. Full stop. They lost the game right there. Or look, everything loving depends on context. Najee was a pretty good pick, probably better than going OL, but whether there was another player better is debatable. Etienne was also a 1st round RB, it was clear at the time he loving hideously atrocious pick, not just because he's a RB, but because the Jags picked him in the worst possible context. Magicpants fucked around with this message at 20:59 on Dec 7, 2021 |
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Dec 7, 2021 20:42
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Chucktesla posted:https://twitter.com/PFF_AndrewR/status/1467855154414342147?t=BrPAi9zqfv6kZcqO6XgTUg&s=19 I legit thought this was a joke post. Like not that the stats were a joke but that someone was saying this sarcastically but no, that guy apparently works at PFF lmao
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Dec 7, 2021 20:49
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For some context:blarzgh posted:For those interested, EPA doesn't, in and of itself, separate players into positions, or even types of plays.
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Dec 7, 2021 20:50
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Magicpants posted:so it only took the historically anomalous game ever to finally establish the value of the run is context dependent, now we're just quibbling about the degree. its not as simple as oh just pass the ball dum dums No one has ever argued that the run game has "no value", and in fact advanced study confirms that the run game is most valuable on 3rd and short, and short goal-to-go situations. The argument is about adjusting the run game usage from what it has traditionally been (early downs, "establishing the run") to where it has the most value, in context (short yardage situations, light boxes set up by the threat of the pass). Magicpants posted:thank you bill belichick Its true, though. The offensive line and the play scheme and calls have much more to do with how successful a play is, especially a running play, than the running back does. Magicpants posted:what does this have to do with anything, the people who really believe this stuff contintually talk about play action like a gimmick and runs as some unfortunate tradition used only at the end of games to drain the clock People who "really believe this stuff" believe that Play Action is Good! and have discovered that how successful play action passes are have nothing to do with the success of your running back. Player tracking data, and film study find that linebackers can't help but bite on the run fake and that NFL teams still have not hit the tipping point where play action becomes less successful. Until they do, its an incredibly valuable tool for offenses, that is underutilized. Magicpants posted:Let me spell it out for you like I've been going off on for the last 24 hours. The Bills couldn't stop the run. Full stop. They lost the game right there. Thats cool, but your manic point is made without levy for the other 2,719 games in the past decade, so congratulations for figuring that one out, but the information isn't particularly translatable to the rest of the season.
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Dec 7, 2021 21:02
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ok well try crunching the numbers with a different equation next week because bills are get hammered
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Dec 7, 2021 21:08
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And for more Context: Running the Ball to Protect the Lead is Good! In general, in late game situations, the value of win percentage added by running exceeds passing WPA. This is because, as we all intuitively understand, running, while having a lower success rate takes time off the clock. You give up points and yards for time. Analytics thinks Running the ball is Good! In the right situations! They also think the name of the person running the ball doesn't matter that much.
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Dec 7, 2021 21:11
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Magicpants posted:ok well try crunching the numbers with a different equation next week because bills are get hammered What are you asking?
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Dec 7, 2021 21:11
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for you to think for the first time in your life this is a bot right?
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Dec 7, 2021 21:14
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Magicpants posted:for you to think for the first time in your life Seems unreasonably aggressive, but OK I'll try: *takes a huge poo poo in own pants*
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Dec 7, 2021 21:15
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Not even trying to to be rude, just everyone around here keep proving they have never watched a football game before Oh gently caress, did you guys know Rhamondre Stevenson carried the ball 24 times for 78 yards, that’s only 3.2 YPC, hardly an efficient run game after all  Take away a couple busted runs by Damien, why according to science the Patriots lose the game  e: And you aren’t even doing stats right! You’re doing your weird little fetishization of stats. Whatever kind of analysis you think you are doing is so crude as to be basically meaningless. I mean you don’t have to care about BB like I do. I have nothing against ignorance, it’s the self-righteous ignorance though Magicpants fucked around with this message at 21:36 on Dec 7, 2021 |
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Dec 7, 2021 21:25
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Impossibly Perfect Sphere posted:Actually I think the best thread ever created by one individual effort in TFF was a statistical rundown of running back performances. Forever_Peace's Ground Control. I still think about it sometimes. Magicpants posted:Not even trying to to be rude, just everyone around here keep proving they have never watched a football game before Gonna be honest, you're making a huge rear end of yourself my guy
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Dec 7, 2021 21:53
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Spoeank posted:Forever_Peace's Ground Control. I still think about it sometimes. drat good memory. https://forums.somethingawful.com/showthread.php?threadid=3763012
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Dec 7, 2021 21:55
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Analytics are dumb. Sorry nerds
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Dec 7, 2021 21:57
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This was a bad week for analytics but a great week for eyes and guts. All in all I rank it 11/10
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Dec 7, 2021 22:44
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According to advanced analytics you don't need to throw the ball to win a game, therefore quarterbacks are useless and teams should prioritize their run game. The #1 seed Patriots did just this yesterday, and the #2 and #3 seeds in the AFC are also run-focused teams. Meanwhile, the Jags and Jets spent their top picks on quarterbacks and are still terrible because they refuse to establish the run. The advanced statistics don't lie. Think of it this way. Would you rather your team have Derrick Henry or Kirk Cousins?
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Dec 8, 2021 00:05
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Guards and centers should go top 5 every year. gently caress QB's 
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Dec 8, 2021 00:43
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put down the meth pipe drat you've had enough son
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Dec 8, 2021 00:48
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blarzgh posted:People who "really believe this stuff" believe that Play Action is Good! and have discovered that how successful play action passes are have nothing to do with the success of your running back. Player tracking data, and film study find that linebackers can't help but bite on the run fake and that NFL teams still have not hit the tipping point where play action becomes less successful. Until they do, its an incredibly valuable tool for offenses, that is underutilized. Blarzgh is completely wrong about Dak being good, but he's right about play action. All teams should be running play action about 70% of the time. Instead 30% is considered an extremely high amount.
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Dec 8, 2021 01:14
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Check out Andrew's Big Time Mad rate https://twitter.com/PFF_AndrewR/status/1468347844407013379?t=0jHfLWp5-g2I7O7B-UAohQ&s=19
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Dec 8, 2021 03:56
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Next week, after the Bills D sits in their heaviest run packages all game, allowing 700 passing yards but only 70 yds on the ground, the advanced stats people: “SEE!??! The Bills running defense is great, and passing is better than running after all  ”People are making good faith arguments that THE WIND was more responsible for this win than the run game. The only reason people are blaming the wind for that loss is because Belichick deliberately chose to run the ball 46 times and won the game, whereas the team that threw a typical 30 times, and you know didn’t have any balls fly away on the wind, their passing game got shut down by a vastly smarter tougher defense. This could have happened just as easily when its 70 and sunny. But people have been so stripped down that they have to resort to blaming THE WIND. move along folks, nothing to see here, no football was played, THE WIND was too strong THE WIND https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=sT5f1jBJHng TREMBLE IN FEAR YE MORTALS
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Dec 8, 2021 16:54
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Are you OK?
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Dec 8, 2021 16:57
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I've been reading Magicpants posts in Tony Montana's voice this whole time so it makes perfect sense. 
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Dec 8, 2021 17:00
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I don't know what happened to Magicpants but whatever it is, I am in favor of it.
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Dec 8, 2021 17:04
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I'm 50/50 on whether this is a bit, or he's actually unhinged.
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Dec 8, 2021 17:04
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He's dealing with the fact that he's seen peak football and everything after this is downhill.
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Dec 8, 2021 17:10
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