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sweet thursday
Sep 16, 2012

Let's talk Advanced Stats and eventually make our own so we can sell it to Disney and make a lot of money.

Examples of our competition:
DVOA
DVOA is a method of evaluating teams, units, or players. It takes every single play during the NFL season and compares each one to a league-average baseline based on situation. DVOA measures not just yardage, but yardage towards a first down: Five yards on third-and-4 are worth more than five yards on first-and-10 and much more than five yards on third-and-12. Red zone plays are worth more than other plays. Performance is also adjusted for the quality of the opponent. DVOA is a percentage, so a team with a DVOA of 10.0% is 10 percent better than the average team, and a quarterback with a DVOA of -20.0% is 20 percent worse than the average quarterback. Because DVOA measures scoring, defenses are better when they are negative

PRO FOOTBALL FOCUS:
I have no idea what their secret sauce is but the good news is after reading this, neither do they
https://www.pff.com/grades
PFF employs over 600 full or part-time analysts, but less than 10% of analysts are trained to the level that they can grade plays. Only the top two to three percent of analysts are on the team of “senior analysts” in charge of finalizing each grade after review. Our graders have been training for months, and sometimes years, in order to learn, understand and show mastery of our process that includes our 300-page training manual and video playbook. We have analysts from all walks of life, including former players, coaches and scouts. We don’t care if you played.

ESPN QBR WTFBBQ
ESPN’s Total Quarterback Rating (Total QBR), which was released in 2011, has never claimed to be perfect, but unlike other measures of quarterback performance, it incorporates all of a quarterback’s contributions to winning, including how he impacts the game on passes, rushes, turnovers and penalties. Also, since QBR is built from the play level, it accounts for a team’s level of success or failure on every play to provide the proper context and then allocates credit to the quarterback and his teammate to produce a clearer measure of quarterback efficiency.
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There's some others too but the main point is the market is ready for a Grand Unified Theory of Football: a way to rank QBs based on Defenses, Defenses based on Special Teams, and Special Teams based on the sales of alcohol in the third quarter. We can do this.

To do list:
- Quantify the Eye Test
- Qualify the Gut Check
- Put the Science back in Who's Hot and Who's Not
- invent the Kirk Cousins Modifier that explains the inverse relationship between Skill and When The Lights Getting Too Bright on a Monday Night

sweet thursday fucked around with this message at 16:54 on Nov 30, 2021

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sweet thursday
Sep 16, 2012

Impossibly Perfect Sphere posted:

It's called Clutch OP.

And there's only one stat that matters: Just Wins Games

Meaningless words and phrases. Where is the numbers, the hard data, the /'s and ='s and %'s?
You are now in charge of our Clutch Division. I want some fluff on my desk by Friday.

sweet thursday
Sep 16, 2012

That's a good point.

- Petition the NFL to add more games to the season so we have a bigger sample size.

sweet thursday
Sep 16, 2012

Advanced Stats finally died today
[

sweet thursday
Sep 16, 2012

A.o.D. posted:

I thought advanced stats had been saying that the Lions aren't as bad as their record all season long.
Interesting point. We need an advanced stat to take into account the competing advanced stats to see which one wins out

sweet thursday
Sep 16, 2012

The advanced metrics love intentional grounding on a 4th and long. If those computers could pop boners they would

sweet thursday
Sep 16, 2012

Chucktesla posted:

https://twitter.com/PFF_AndrewR/status/1467855154414342147?t=BrPAi9zqfv6kZcqO6XgTUg&s=19

Love to say words like Big Time Throw when talking about our serious advanced statistical analysis
Lol I know we like to joke around here but jfc these advanced stats are garbage

sweet thursday
Sep 16, 2012

sweet thursday
Sep 16, 2012

"People lie, but numbers don't lie" I explain to my Tinder date as to why Thanos actually had the right idea in the Infinity Saga

sweet thursday
Sep 16, 2012

I can't really trust something there's infinity of

sweet thursday
Sep 16, 2012

This was a bad week for analytics but a great week for eyes and guts. All in all I rank it 11/10

sweet thursday
Sep 16, 2012

I don't know who Andrew Russell is but I want him to know that his life is a lie and his existence is a joke to me

sweet thursday
Sep 16, 2012

Congrats to the Chargers who analysised themselves into a loss

sweet thursday
Sep 16, 2012

blarzgh posted:

Analytics says the average pass is better than the average run; analytics also says that if your runs will get more yards, on average, in a game than your passes will, then you should continue to run.
So do what your guts and your eyes tell you to do after all?

Your move, analytics :smug:

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sweet thursday
Sep 16, 2012

Proof of gently caress picks

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