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spankmeister
Jun 15, 2008






Just Another Lurker posted:

edit: He cred went down in my view when he tried to publish an Azov memoir (before 2022 conflict).

He did, but he was being naive about Azov and his biggest mistake was not researching the author (who was a flaming nazi already before they joined Azov). He got called out on this and he handled it as well as anyone could tbh, almost immediately owning up to his mistake and vowing to better research his authors and book topics before publishing.

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spankmeister
Jun 15, 2008






SlowBloke posted:

He did react only when patreon killed the fundraiser, not on his own and literally pouted on video(his first reaction video is now private). He went "I'm sorry for not researching" on his second video on that, after grabbing a shitload of flak on his first reaction vid.

Hmm I didn't see the first video, might reevaluate.

spankmeister
Jun 15, 2008






Young Freud posted:

In the responses in that thread, it seems they're vulnerable to MANPADS but their real killer is Patriot batteries, because they can coordinate air defenses to meet them whenever they pop up.

So stuff like a mobile SAM battery like the Gepard is probably needed.

Seems like an expensive proposition to shoot down a single, relatively cheap drone with a patriot missile, those are really expensive. Or am misunderstanding you?

BTW Gepard isn't SAM, but an AAG (anti-air gun) so if they can shoot them down effectively it's probably a lot cheaper.

spankmeister
Jun 15, 2008






SlowBloke posted:

It depends on the state of the equipment before and after shipping, chemical and precision machining kit doesn't like getting rattled by bombs and being disassembled by conscripts. It's not beyond impossible that working machines could end up irremediably damaged by this relocation so it hurts them both. Also given how Ukraine is quickly moving to western ammo due to gifted kit, a factory designed to make russian calibers might not be as strategic as it was before for Ukraine forces.

It's not the first time the Soviet Union Russia disassembled and stole whole factories.

spankmeister
Jun 15, 2008






lilljonas posted:

Not if you have district heating, like a lot of urban centres here in Sweden. I get my heating through hot water from a central furnace in the city, and the cost is a charge that everyone in our apartment building share. It's dirt cheap and very efficient compared to heating individual buildings. As long as we have trash to burn we're free from Putin's terror.

Maybe in a district-heated hovel, but in my district-heated apartment, each radiator has individual heat meters that wirelessly transmit your usage and you're billed accordingly.

So, in short:

Failed Imagineer posted:

Just goes to show how insane it is to say "I assume it's like this everywhere in Europe", to which the answer is always "no"

spankmeister
Jun 15, 2008






It'd be interesting to see how much of the pro-kremlin stuff remains on shows like his when the russian money spigot eventually dries up

spankmeister
Jun 15, 2008






I just realized something. A few years ago I bought a Russian army ration (and some other countries) off of ebay because I saw a few of those steve1989mreinfo videos and I got curious.

The ration was well within date of expiration, and the food, while very Russian, wasn't half bad.

Now, more than likely the one I bought should have gone into army stocks to replace expired rations, but some colonel or whatever probably made a quick buck off of selling them instead.

So in a small way I contributed to the Russian army's corruption and decline. 🫡

spankmeister
Jun 15, 2008






https://twitter.com/alexstubb/status/1572534911994679297


People keep saying this. Putin is unpredictable. He's been very predictable throughout, imo.

spankmeister
Jun 15, 2008






cinci zoo sniper posted:

Very interesting. What the gently caress is that? I did never succeed finding as much as a brochure that would answer those drone boat supplies.

:stonklol:

To explain the meme to non-speakers:

mobilizatsyya - mobilisation
mogila - grave
mogilizatsyya - self explanatory meteoric entry to the Russian political meme scene

Ah you didn't see the poster?

https://twitter.com/vesna_democrat/status/1572471468994482177

spankmeister
Jun 15, 2008






Atreiden posted:

hah that might explain the word mo-kill-ization I saw in a translation with no explanation earlier.

That's not a half bad translation imo

spankmeister
Jun 15, 2008







Blyaaaa that's a proper pizdets. gently caress

spankmeister
Jun 15, 2008






Putin is making bad decisions not because he is irrational, but because

1) he is absolutely getting bad information from his subordinates, who are getting bad information from their subordinates, and they from theirs, and so on. This must've changed a bit since the complete and utter pizdets keeps happening, but the corruption and lying is incredibly pervasive all up and down the Russian military and government apparatus. Putin himself made sure of it by cultivating it all these years by running his government like the mob. Russia is not a normal country and their power structures don't function in the same way ours do, and we cannot assume Putin is informed truthfully.

2) He seems absolutely convinced of his world view, that he is the only one fighting western degeneracy, which is threatening Russia's very existence, and he really seems to think that he needs to restore Russia's greatness to include all of Russkiy Mir (Russian World) to combat this. This includes the idea that the territories of Ukraine, the Baltic states, Moldova, Poland, the Caucasus, etc that were lost after the dissolution of the Soviet Union, and even the fall of the Russian Empire, need to be brought back into the fold. (And that the Russian-speakers living there actually want this)

Source: his rambling TV speeches

Some might call this insane, but it doesn't make him irrational. It just means that his decision making calculus is different than what western analysts might think it'd be.

And lastly, he is all the way in on this now, because his main goal seems to be self preservation, or at least preservation of his idea what Russia's future needs to be, and he's not willing to give up, because he knows that losing the war means losing Russia. He is way down in the sunk cost fallacy hole and he just keeps on digging, the referenda and mogilization being the latest example.

spankmeister fucked around with this message at 08:05 on Sep 22, 2022

spankmeister
Jun 15, 2008






steinrokkan posted:

YouTube just described a lot of textbook irrationality to explain why Putin is supposedly rational.

Explain the youtube dig please

spankmeister
Jun 15, 2008






Kchama posted:

"He's completely loving irrational, but he thinks he makes sense, so he's actually perfectly rational." is a very weird thing to argue. Like I don't get the whole point of this "He is an Inscrutable But Wise Foreigner, so how are Decadent Westerners suppose to understand his perfect rationality?!" dance that always comes up when someone calls him out as irrational. Just because something is logical to him doesn't make it actually logical to the world.

Or, in short:

Wait hang on. The last thing I'm trying to argue is that he's secretly some inscrutable wise man who is good save for these dastardly underlings who keep feeding him false information or something. Apologies if my post comes across like that.

No, he's all kinds of twisted in his thinking and he thinks the world is completely different than to how it really is. And he's a chauvinistic narcissistic rear end in a top hat who needs to be stopped at all costs holy poo poo.

All I was trying to argue is that a lot of western analysts have been wrong about him and his motives and that they should adjust to analyzing a weirdo imperialist mobster instead of some 5D geopolitical chess master he was often made out to be.

spankmeister
Jun 15, 2008






It's Russia, you need your (internal) passport to take a poo poo. People carry them.

spankmeister
Jun 15, 2008






TheRat posted:

Wasn't there a recruitment video from Wagner recently where they specifically said they didn't want drug users and alcoholics

Here's an interview with a PoW that was recruited by Wagner at a Russian penal camp:

https://youtu.be/hxsHFkxYOtY

His story isn't 100% consistent but he's definitely saying that most of the recruits of his group were drug addicts.

spankmeister
Jun 15, 2008






Mood:

https://youtu.be/DHCzaiJEoEY

spankmeister
Jun 15, 2008






It's a bit shocking that they got their hands on them, but not shocking that the US shares that kind of intelligence with Ukraine. That has been a public secret since tue beginning right?

spankmeister
Jun 15, 2008






You guuuuuys! This means that Russia is really fighting NATO and not some scruffy Ukrainian farmers! Our honor is saved!!!!

(USER WAS PUT ON PROBATION FOR THIS POST)

spankmeister
Jun 15, 2008






We should look at the USSR road atlas to figure out the borders they're gonna claim because that's what they seem to be using in battle also.

https://twitter.com/uarealitynow/status/1570754173117034497

spankmeister
Jun 15, 2008






https://twitter.com/bayraktar_1love/status/1573586461613588481

No, its equipment given to conscripts

spankmeister
Jun 15, 2008






Just Another Lurker posted:

Are those weapons just meant for their two week "training" or do they get deployed to their units with them, i could see training guns being that janky but taking that to the front is scary. :derp:

I don't know. You would think they're training weapons because storing small arms isn't nearly as hard as vehicles. Just dunk them in cosmoline and they're good for basically forever. But given Russia's track record so far, who knows?

spankmeister
Jun 15, 2008






Shoigu ain't gonna be president, the army doesn't like him because he never served.

spankmeister
Jun 15, 2008






Ynglaur posted:

More evidence they're struggling with basic tactical tasks. As much as I used to joke about "death before dismount", you actually dismount a lot as a tanker.

Also nice to get a full-length AKM as a tanker instead of say, an AKS-74U with a short barrel and folding stock, which I'm sure they have loads of somewhere.

spankmeister
Jun 15, 2008






Is the reason that Kadyrov says don all the time because he wants to be the new don of the mafia family running Russia? :2bong:

spankmeister
Jun 15, 2008






cinci zoo sniper posted:

Dons per minute off the charts

It was a joke but thanks for the explainer :)

spankmeister
Jun 15, 2008






Snowy posted:

So don = knowwhatI’msayin

Like Americans use like

spankmeister
Jun 15, 2008






I just think they're in such deep denial, it would be too uncomfortable to deal with the cognitive dissonance.

spankmeister
Jun 15, 2008






Tsyni posted:

That's a powerful coalition. What's the far left one?

Light blue, blue, red is the LNR flag.

E: white red gold is South Ossetia and green/white stripes with red hand thing is Abchazia.

It's the who's who of Russian occupied territories! All that's missing is Prisnistrovye (transnistria)

spankmeister fucked around with this message at 23:47 on Sep 25, 2022

spankmeister
Jun 15, 2008







That means he can be mobilized right? :getin:

spankmeister
Jun 15, 2008






TheRat posted:

Would it?

Very much so.

spankmeister
Jun 15, 2008






HonorableTB posted:

Oof, be careful scrolling Twitter and Telegram today. There's a war crimes post circulating and there's an uncensored photo of a dead Ukrainian soldier who :nms: had his eyes, tongue, vocal chords, and ears removed before death :nms:

Thanks for the heads up. I read the spoilered part and that was enough to make my stomach churn. :gonk:
Anyone capable of such horrific acts is simply not human.

spankmeister
Jun 15, 2008






Well, don't forget there's massive gas fields and coal in the Donbass and under the sea of Azov. Although gas and especially coal are on their way out, it could still be a major economic boon for Ukraine in the medium term. However, petroleum companies don't want to commit if there's Russians around loving poo poo up.

spankmeister
Jun 15, 2008






cinci zoo sniper posted:

They’re not massive, and their boons are out of practical reach even if Russia would capitulate and withdraw from Ukraine immediately. It would be some money for Ukraine, though, you’re right on that - I’m just disputing by proxy the occasionally popular idea that Russia did this because it’s about to economically profit from fossil fuels in the Ukrainian southeast.

Oh, I think for Russia any economic incentive wrt gas was more about stopping Ukraine from becoming a competitor to Russia rather than exploiting the gas reserves themselves.

spankmeister
Jun 15, 2008






This war sure isn't about gas, that's for sure.

spankmeister
Jun 15, 2008






Craig K posted:

I'm sorry, but all i can think about regarding those extremely legitimate numbers is:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PYA0jV3Illk&t=73s

Very interesting, here are my thoughts on the legitimacy of this "referendum"

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Y7pz7CqWTMs

(USER WAS PUT ON PROBATION FOR THIS POST)

spankmeister
Jun 15, 2008






OddObserver posted:

That's because they prefer implausible deniability: no matter how ridiculous your claim and no matter how many times you lie, the two-siders in Western media will faithfully broadcast your claims.

It's already happening. Clancychat and conspiracy theorycrafting is running wild wrt blaming the Americans for this.

spankmeister
Jun 15, 2008






lilljonas posted:

According to Swedish biologists, microorganisms might end up eating up a lot of the metane gas before it reaches the surface if the pipes are deep enough. The gas that do come up will add to global heating as it's a greenhouse gas.

Then it's a matter of how long the gas will keep on leaking. As long as it doesn't keep on leaking for years, the effects on the sea will probably be minor, even though some biologists think that it can have a negative effect on some of the fish that are already in a bad place in the Baltic Sea (an overall very sick sea), such as cod. But it's nowhere near the kind of environmental horror of an oil spill.

It's not going to keep leaking for years, unless Russia keeps the valves open on their end for years. Right now the gas that's leaking out should* be just the gas that was in the pipeline. And there's a lot of gas in there, because a gas pipeline is highly pressurized.

*I say should, because I wouldn't put it past Russia to just keep it flowing to hinder investigations, and yknow, just out of spite.

On a related note:
Does anyone know if the greenhouse effect of methane is worse than the CO2 that would have been produced by burning it? I know methane is a worse greenhouse gas than CO2, but would burning it generate an equivalent amount of CO2, or is not burning it worse?

spankmeister
Jun 15, 2008






Nenonen posted:

Many people also fled Russia right after the invasion started, but I think most returned within a month or two, because there is jackall a Russian can do in Europe without a job or other source of income, and tourist visa lasts only for 90 days anyway.

A lot of them already went to places like Georgia, Armenia and Turkey where Russians can live for extended times without a visa.

There's even a thing where the first wave of Russians who came in the first months of the war and have already settled a bit are annoyed by the new wave ruining things for them.

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spankmeister
Jun 15, 2008






https://twitter.com/waragainstputin/status/1575495378556059654

This dude is so high on speed it's no surprise he thinks NATO is already here

e: not supporting the use of the word "orc" here.

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