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Old Kentucky Shark posted:Even if you went to the hottest hot spot in the red forest, dug up a bunch of dirt, and ate it, you still wouldn't get acute radiation poisoning. You would, at worst, get statistically high levels of cancer in the next few years from soldiers stationed in and around the plant. I'm pretty confident this will be mass hysteria. They're in a stressed state in what is basically the world's biggest haunted house. Anything goes slightly wrong with your health in there, and you'd reasonably start making GBS threads yourself. So, basically Havana Syndrome on a mass scale.
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Mar 31, 2022 11:24
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Traditionally one of the major features of a successful feight is minimal losses, rather than the loss of 7 generals, your elite paratroopers, and a few thousand tanks. If that's what the Russians call a success, let them keep succeeding. Come to think of it, is this the record for highest loss of generals by an aggressor nation? Obviously a nation getting invaded can lose a huge number of generals, but for a invading army to lose this many when they should be out of combat seems like it might be unprecedented.
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Mar 31, 2022 22:51
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Mystic Mongol posted:If they stay neutral through the entirety of the hostilities, China winds up with the world's largest collection of natural resources as a client state entirely dependent on them for the basics of modern life. The whole situation is astoundingly beneficial to China. Along with the dirt cheap resources, they can sell manufactured good to Russia at an inflated price, and gets to watch Russia burn those goods sending them into a meat grinder which also eats European and American assets (although not as much). As long as they play "neutral", they won't suffer any particular blowback either while their most pressing geopolitical rivals are weakened. I can't imagine China will ever feel threatened by Russia again after this debacle. Bug Squash fucked around with this message at 17:59 on Apr 2, 2022 |
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Apr 2, 2022 17:56
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Tomn posted:Regarding Zelensky's "Absolutely liberal" comments, I'm surprised nobody quoted the rest of his comments from that article. Badly phrased for the West, but he's right that if Ukraine survives it's going to have to become a fortress until Russia recovers from imperialism. The humiliation around Kyiv is going to feed demands to punish Ukraine for at least a generation, and even outside of military action you're going to have countless spies and assassins crossing the border looking for revenge. Hopefully Ukraine can maintain it's democracy in those conditions, but those conditions breed authoritarian tendencies (as we see in Israel itself). Ukraine will need a lot of luck and goodwill.
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Apr 5, 2022 20:25
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CommieGIR posted:To that end, nearly every Soviet offensive plan assumed heavy use of nuclear weapons at the tactical level. BMPs and other vehicles were not meant to survive ambushes, they were meant to survive nuclear wastelands. Turns out, they do very poorly in the former rather than the latter. Ah, tactical Posadism. Hope no-one flogged your air filters for a new yacht. Iirc, they actually tested this out with a nuclear airburst test, commanded by Zhukov. Not sure what the results were, but probably not great since we're not yet a Russian speaking radioactive wasteland.
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Apr 8, 2022 17:11
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quote:Instead, and ‘faithfully’ along the principle, ‘let all the guys earn their medals’, Putin was issuing his ‘orders’ directly to commanders of field armies (note: Putin is never issuing clear and direct orders: that would make him directly responsible; instead, he’s commanding through ‘rough directives’, so that it’s always the recipient of these who is to blame if something goes wrong). Shoygu, MOD, West OSK and South OSK played no role in operations so far, except for monitoring the growing chaos around them… because, the result was that every commander of every single field army was running his own operation. There was no coordination between them.
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Apr 9, 2022 17:47
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Marshal Prolapse posted:It’s is extremely bad. Knowing they are doing this is important, but goddamn I never want to read something like that. Honestly I’m shocked Russia isn’t defending him and giving him a medal and saying the video is fake. The Russian army is a land of contrasts, basically. You still get people who genuinely believe in the mission and decency, and bitterly resent serving with rapists. There are plenty of stories of a scout trying to warn locals that a particularly notorious unit is moving in. If something is reported, it's going to come down to a crapshoot as to whether the local commander laughs and shoots you, or the rapist.
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Apr 9, 2022 22:10
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Nenonen posted:The Iraq war happened at a special time when USA was stoked at putting an end to terrorism forever by turning Middle East into a western democracy and was raising WMD hysteria to help selling the point. In the case of Iraq, it wasn't entirely crazy on the face of it. Iraq had a tradition of secular rationalism, had been a democracy, and was a relatively centralised state. You could almost imagine a competent rebuilding succeeding in the fashion of Germany or Japan. Of course, in practice the rebuilding was overseen by far right stooges hopped up on Randian ideology who proceeded to botch every aspect of the rebuilding and demolish as much of the state infrastructure as they could so the free market could flourish (tm).
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Apr 12, 2022 09:21
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The Question IRL posted:I think some of that is because the News of the World ran a story about him having "Nazi themed orgies" and lost a Defamation case over it. Which has meant there tends to be a lot of dancing around issues when it comes to him. They were also yelling at him in German, but the successful defence was that this is because the women themselves were German. If you think that legal defence is flimsy, you're objectively correct, but British libel law is extraordinary in how hard it is to defend yourself from a rich rear end in a top hat that feels like you slighted them. To make matters worse, you are open to British libel law if what you wrote or said could theoretically be heard or read within the borders of Britain, so you are in danger even if neither you or the person your criticising are British. It's an incredibly dumb system, but there is some effort at least to tone it down a little.
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Apr 12, 2022 12:03
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marshmonkey posted:https://twitter.com/KevinRothrock/status/1514694045167194121?s=20&t=ZsjSCkTYdNuSWbnsENfv6A I was just thinking to myself that indefinite dry dock might been the ideal outcome, since it drains further resources and a full sinking might prompt an escalation. Nevermind. I guess if Russia is insisting it was an accident then they don't have the capability to revenge strike anything. This has to be 1000x better than the Ukrainians expected right? Two Neptune's would maybe be expected to put it in dry dock for a few months, or just put the fear of God into them so they don't act with impunity. The failure to get that fire under control killed the ship, and the crew and fire control systems should have stopped it, but I guess they were another victim of corruption.
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Apr 14, 2022 21:36
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While Russia isn't going to be giving up Crimea in this war, I think the odds of them losing it in the next 5 to 20 years are pretty high. My gut instinct is that a post Putin successor will concede it as an "independent" state in order to normalise relations with the west again.
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Apr 16, 2022 10:59
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The Russian colonisation of Ukraine also mimics the tactics used in China to solidify their rule of Tibet and allegedly other regions with ethnicities they view as troublesome. It's a classic way to sidestep the usual morals of self determination by switching out the "selfs" doing the determination.
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Apr 16, 2022 13:56
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Nessus posted:Russia has really ignored the soft power thing, it seems like. I wonder if it's just because their system doesn't lend themselves to applying it or what. I would disagree. Russia has had incredible soft power, albeit a very weird kind, by pouring money into other countries making them afraid to act against them, creating friendly politicians by outright bribery and compromising photographs, and the usual useful idiots. It's just that they have failed to leverage that this time, and managed to pretty much destroy all that they've built in the last 20 years with the Ukraine invasion. The people left defending Russia are now the absolute bottom of the barrel and too deeply committed, like Oliver Stone.
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Apr 18, 2022 08:19
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Dick Ripple posted:Then again, is the Donbass (if they even manage to take it) and a land route to Crimea worth crippling the Russian economy and shattering any myth that the Russia army can do anything but bully small neigbours and bomb cities in Syria? I do not think Putin can walk away with just that, and if they intend to salvage anything from this disaster of theirs it will most likely require mobilization and getting serious about total war. I think we would be surprised how little would be needed for the propaganda machine to spin it as a "win". Putin still seems fairly invincible internally, and RT has near total control of the information the majority of Russians receive. If they called anything a victory and just arrest anyone who says otherwise as a traitor then who's going to contradict them?
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Apr 22, 2022 10:35
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raifield posted:If I had a decent topographical map of Ukraine I'd be tempted to fire up The Operational Art of War IV and try my hand at creating some scenarios. Folks are going to be wargaming this 'special operation' for years, wondering if they can find the one weird trick to achieve a Decisive Victory for the Russian side. Probably extremely easily, given the massive force differential at the outset. Heck, even the plan the Russians had would probably work if they were half way competent.
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Apr 26, 2022 13:22
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OddObserver posted:
I'm starting to suspect the Makarov has actually just caught fire by itself. Based on the state of the Moscow even an accidental fire could take the average Russian ship out of the war.
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May 7, 2022 13:52
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--- footage of Ukrainian strike on a Russian boat near Snake Island. This one is 3x the tonage of the two cutters (it's some sort of small landing craft), but it's no Frigate. This may be the official "+1 boat".
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His Divine Shadow posted:That's a funny thing. My fiancé came to finland from SE asia as a kid in the 80s and you'd think she'd be lactose intolerant, but nope. She did grow up here though, eating finnish food which is incredibly heavy on dairy. Also, even in regions where most people are intolerant, there's still small numbers capable of digesting it since failing to switch off lactase production is an easy mutation to have and relatively harmless. Most people just never discover they can digest it. Edit: regarding cultures, languages and song, that's a very silly controversy. Ask any classical musician about Italian and you can hear the benefits of a language with a lot of terminal vowels Bug Squash fucked around with this message at 11:25 on May 10, 2022 |
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May 10, 2022 11:20
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lilljonas posted:Erdogan hates Sweden because it has a history of being one of the main European defenders of the Kurd's right to exist. But I haven't heard much grumbling about it from them yet. NATO have been wanting Sweden to join for ages, so I'm convinced they'll strongarm any individual countries making a fuss. Turkey is currently sitting on an economic crisis that dwarfs Russia's (and one entirely caused by Edrogon being an idiot about interest rates). They are not in a position to play strong man if America starts to flex some economic clout on the issue.
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May 12, 2022 10:15
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Morrow posted:It's going to be debated for decades, and we're really only going to know in like thirty years or so once people's posthumous memoirs come out, but it's really It's worth bearing in mind that despite the quality issues of the Russian army, they have been able to leverage their numberical advantage against their neighbours successfully for many decades, including against Ukraine. For all we know the clown show we've seen has been entirely typical of Russian warfare. In that kind of environment sloppy thinking and bad tactics never get corrected because who cares since you're going to win anyway. This is just the first time they've encountered sufficient resistance to force a rethink but the nature of their autocracy means such a rethink is impossible.
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May 16, 2022 16:03
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Edit: I had this guy confused with Oliver Stone, never mind me!
Bug Squash fucked around with this message at 14:46 on May 18, 2022 |
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May 18, 2022 10:00
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Somaen posted:Argentina? They were mad about losing the Falkland war for a few years and then the dictatorship fell apart Sorry for the double post, but Argentina is still mad as hell about the Falklands, they just can't do poo poo about it. That probably the situation that Russia will need to be reduced to to be honest. They're never going to get over this, Ukraine will need to be permanently capable of militarily defeating any incursion.
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May 18, 2022 10:02
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Edgar Allen Ho posted:
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May 20, 2022 10:22
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This is the real life equivalent of taking cover behind the red barrel. If I remember my highschool chemistry, you'd have to mix in an energy source before you have a actual explosive mix, but even still I wouldn't trust fertiliser with my life.
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May 20, 2022 10:44
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Dwesa posted:Using them as a cover in a war zone might provide some needed energy. Energy source, not ignition source. The nitrates release oxygen, so for an explosion you need something for the oxygen to bind to. For the traditional fertiliser bomb this would be sugar. So in theory the bags could get shot up and you'd be fine, but if pretty much anything food related got mixed in there at the same time then your hiding being a bomb.
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May 20, 2022 15:00
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Saladman posted:Didn’t Lebanon’s government go full Dresden on their own capital city by just using fertilizer alone, mixed with fireworks? I didn’t follow up the inquiry into that, if The inquiry ended up ever happening, which iirc it got shut down due to the same corruption that led to Beirut getting destroyed in the first place. I double checked my Nitrate chemistry. Lebanon's explosion was the result of improper storage resulting in the fertiliser breaking down into a state that is less stable and susceptible to explosions, but a sufficiently energetic source can ignite even regulate ammonium nitrate. In conclusion, don't use it for sandbags.
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May 20, 2022 17:16
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I think there has been a touch of victory sickness from the incredible achievements by Ukraine in the first 80 days, which in no small part were due to Russian incompetence and overambition. Now that Russia is fighting more carefully and slowly we probably won't see many of the major Russian loses that defined the start of the war. Russia is now advancing on the areas where they have maximum advantage, so Ukraine's real play here is to delay and make it as costly as possible, rather than another miracle. What happens after these easy gains are realised is another matter. The smart play for Russia would be to declare mission accomplished and try to solidify those areas. I don't think we'll see any major deep incursions past these areas (but then again Russia has proven willing to be incredibly dumb time and time again). I have no idea how the long war that takes shape at this point will go, but at present time seems to be against Russia as they've burnt so many resources just to get this far.
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May 26, 2022 09:35
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What is really staggering is how total the opposition to Russia is at the citizen level, aside from Serbia and Hungary, and how strongly it's shifted from just a year before. Before this year Putin had essential bought into practically every avenue of the Right, from the NRA in America, to Le Pen in France and the property market in London. They could do anything and there would be plenty of tabloid reading Muppets defending them. Now their support base is down to depressed neets who have literally zero influence. Just twenty years of building a massive infrastructure of foreign influence flushed away for the benefit of what is absolutely trivial gains.
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May 26, 2022 16:37
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zone posted:Wasn't the war effort costing them like, 1 billion a day or some poo poo like that?
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May 28, 2022 14:49
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Regardless of the ethics of it, being an admistrator of one of the occupied cities seems like it'll be an exceptionally dangerous occupation once Switchblades start filtering into the cities. Those things seem tailor made for assassination. Keeping those cities occupied is going to be heinously expensive for Russia.
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Jun 14, 2022 10:51
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FishBulbia posted:https://twitter.com/nytimes/status/1537068671494938625 China is surely drawing the conclusion that anything resembling peer conflict is ruinously expensive and a terrible value proposition even if you nominally "win". Their rational move is to sabre rattle Taiwan to boost local jingoism, and continue to grow economically. They have a pretty good deal going, why rock the boat?
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Jun 15, 2022 16:33
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mobby_6kl posted:Although I'm sure that Putin also underestimated the scale of the sanctions and isolation (based on the weak-rear end poo poo in 2014) he also had to there would be significant consequences, and was fine with that. None of the damage russia is suffering now matters if he can secure at least what he's captured so far. He'll be the great savior and restorer of the empire and all the lost lives and opportunities would be seen as a minor, and worthwhile, sacrifice. I think we shouldn't dismiss the tremendous value in Russia being permanently beggarded to the extent that they are never again capable of waging an offensive war. The whole world is better off from that. Russia losing in the East would do that even better, and becomes more likely as sanctions continue, so going with both strategies is probably ideal.
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Jun 15, 2022 17:22
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Neurolimal posted:Ukraine is free to pursue a ceasefire when it is ready to do so. It should however be made aware that the war is not going in their favor and likely never will, and that the longer this goes on the worse the concessions will end up being. I doubt, for example, that Russia is as receptive towards the Kyiv deal now, after it was snubbed & the war dragged on. It's entirely understandable that Biden wants to nip any delusions in the bud before a Vietnam War-esque reactionary myth about being stabbed in the back forms. Russia has catastrophically failed on two major fronts. They are only "winning" in the sense that they have now restricted themselves to fighting in the small number of locations where they won't get hosed but their inept logistics. It's doubtful whether they can even maintain this. Time is very much on Ukraine's side now, and the Russians have entered slow motion. And frankly the Russians have never entertained any diplomatic end to the war beyond "give us everything we want". Any pretence otherwise was just a fig leaf to cover naked imperialism.
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Jun 17, 2022 16:10
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Ola posted:The big question from the modern world: WHY. Why does it matter? It's not a computer game where you have to grab all the tiles? Why does it matter so much, when you know the cost and the cruelty involved in annexation? The long term gain is also similar to simply co-existing with a neighbor, if you assume more or less unimpeded trade etc. Is it just the Pac-man chomp chomp short term gain of Roman-like conquest and looting? Conquering is immensely popular with the domestic population. A foreign war does wonders to shore up a flagging regime, and distract from domestic issues. And of course there are the emotional reasonings, the lingering resentment of having lost territory. People will kill their neighbours over a few square feet of yard. There's something primal about land that makes people lose their sanity.
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Jun 18, 2022 20:57
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Kchama posted:The House vote on Ukraine aid passed 368-57. There would have to be a LOT of Russia-loving chuds elected to stop future bills. I don't think we really appreciate how effectively the Biden administration has managed to undo nearly 20 years of Russian soft power in Washington. Just a few years ago congressmen were touring Moscow and they were getting intel straight from the President. Now it's a toxic liability.
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Jun 21, 2022 22:23
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Coldbird posted:Trump can withdraw from NATO day one, UK likely follows, and it’s all downhill from there. Or at least, downhill faster than now. Poland and friends would still likely drag it out for years, and it really could turn into WW3 then. I think the window of opportunity for us withdrawal has thoughally closed, but the idea that the UK would follow a US withdrawal is laughable. Our politicians make so much hay from looking tough, and it justifies continued building of silly ships in marginal seats to bribe voters. Just a mind boggling misunderstanding of UK political landscape.
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Jun 22, 2022 09:07
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Deltasquid posted:https://www.euronews.com/2022/06/22/ukraine-claims-significant-snake-island-victory-over-russian-forces It's been discussed at length. Basically Russia keeps trying to move troops and materiel onto the island, and it keeps getting blown up by Ukraine. I don't think there's any plan to try and recapture Snake Island, it just keeps presenting targets of opportunity.
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Jun 23, 2022 17:40
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There's only so far forward the front can move until Russia's inability to perform serious military logistics causes a breakdown like we saw around Kyiv. Russia is doing well only because they have retreated to the slim areas where they have a massive natural advantage. They are not going to be able to perform as well outside that area.
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Jun 25, 2022 10:41
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Trump posted:That's something we've been hearing in different iterations since the initial gently caress up was clear back in February. People said the pace of the opening of the war was unsustainable, and they were right. Russia has been been forced to withdraw from most fronts and slow down their operations. People are now also saying that this current very slow pace is also unsustainable, and there's very good reason to think they're right. Russia obviously isn't manufacturing shells at the same rate they are firing them.
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Jun 26, 2022 19:51
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Mr. Mercury posted:I mean we'll see. I know it's almost a cop-out statement to make but there is the possibility they shift focus or something changes. If this truly is for the long haul, we may see hot and cold periods as things go on. I don't think that's a cop out, that's just what will have to happen when Russia is eventually forced to settle into a pace that is sustainable. Once the war reaches that stage that's where the impact of Western supplies to Ukraine, and sanctions on Russia impeding their manufacturing will really tip the balance. How much damage Russia can do before then is the big question.
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Jun 26, 2022 20:09
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Rigel posted:Once their reserve runs out, they will have to scale back dramatically. They do not have the ability to make 60,000 shells a day. Then they will be firing at each other at about the same rate except Ukraine's artillery will hit what it is aimed at, from further away. Another point to bear in mind is that those reserves are never, ever, going to fill up again. Russia is burning through 60-80 years of military planning for these inches of land. Even if the war ends on bad terms, Russia has permanently depleted it's ability to defend the land it's taken, and entirely lost it's ability to seriously threaten nearby peers like Finland.
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Jun 27, 2022 08:33
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