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A GIANT PARSNIP posted:This is really lovely wording but I believe they’re doing a NATO deployment to Ukraine’s neighbors. Yeah, this sounds like they're offering to help take over border control duties towards Romania, freeing up Ukrainian personnel to go somewhere else. I'm not sure if Ukraine has even maintained much of a presence at the Romanian border. I would imagine they're more worried about the Transdniestrian border.
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Feb 26, 2022 20:17
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Saladman posted:"we should post bad reviews for all Russian restaurants". I've seen some campaigns to get people to use Google Maps to give Russian restaurants 5 star reviews, while putting suppressed information about the invasion in the review text (in Russian). I am not sure that kind of information effort even works, but at least it would leave nice reviews ratings when all is said and done.
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Mar 3, 2022 12:01
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I'm pretty sure (well as much a random dumb nerd can be) that China has Putin on a clock. The longer this drags out - the more this becomes a war and not a liberation(nexation) of lost territory and ethnic brethren - the more unhappy China will be. They have him by the scrotum at this point - and I hardly think they'll accept having Europe militarized and increasingly angry, the world economy heading towards a massive crash even if they get Russian exports for cheap and a whacky new vassal. Russia under Putin is not a good buffer state, ally or vassal for China. They like stable and predictable. I also think Europe will not accept Kyiv turning into a new Grozny and Ukraine either getting conquered by Russia or turned into a 5 to 10 year protracted special military operation. Everyone talks about the US and NATO - and yes, the US can out-war anyone on Earth and has military power projection ability next to none. However, they're still playing global super-power politics, even if the sanctions are hardball to show Putin just how globalization has changed the game, and that cold war spheres of influence do not apply to Russia. But Europe has gotten the feels for Ukraine now. The plucky underdog that was once part of the scary neighborhood gang, but now wants to hang out with the Euro club, has been assaulted by a bully and is putting up one heck of a fight. If Ukraine had been run over in a weekend or had a sleazey pseudo-dictator running the show, things would be different. Europe is cheering now - volunteers are pouring in. Germany is militarizing. The French have an opportunity to act like a major power, engaging in grand diplomacy (I see Macron going through the motions possibly leading to a 'casus belli' for an intervention). Turkey has found a way to get back goodwill and influence in Europe. EU leaders are almost frothing with delight at being able to present a united front for once, aroused with jingoistic fervor to the point where some Eurocrat accidentally promised gifting fighter jets to Ukraine. If Putin starts winning - Europe might get the gang back together and intervene. I am guessing with France and Poland leading the charge, vengeful Dutch not far behind. Not to mention the secretly giddy Germans eyeing an opportunity to get that Russian gas after all. I'm not sure the US would join that war - and I think China wouldn't mind seeing Europe accidentally make NATO a relic of the past, and indirectly humiliating both Russia and the US. If Putin doesn't win, but stays in the game (and not razing Ukraine to the ground), extending the conflict by sending more troops and getting back on the infowar track and taking full advantage of US cynicism and GoP Putinfans - then I think China will stab him in the back. They don't want an unstable, warmongering, destitute Russia making the new Silk Road a muddy, bloody mess. Everyone is focusing on the old cold war rivalry - USA and Russia. But I think Europe and China will be the ones to step in if the Ukrainians don't just deliver the knock-out punch on their own by humiliating Putin so hard, that he gets replaced and the whole mess blamed on him and some conspiracy (time for the good old army purges of old!). There's more than NATO, nuclear deterrence and cold war electric bugaloo to this war and what it might lead to. PederP fucked around with this message at 22:21 on Mar 3, 2022 |
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Mar 3, 2022 22:19
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cinci zoo sniper posted:Nothing to do with ethnic conflict there, just ugly opportunism. Contrary to Kremlin’s propaganda, an assload of Ukrainians enjoy going about their days in Russian. Not the least their president himself, who comes from a Russian-speaking family, as I recall it. For the Kremlin elite this is sort of an ethnic conflict. They've been consistently describing Ukrainians as some kind of lesser Russians - lost and twisted by the wicked west. The point of this invasion was to get them back into a Russian empire to be cleansed of such vile influence. That's the truly disturbing part of the 'de-nazification' bullshit: It is more than just vile propaganda, but also a politically correct (in Kreml terms) way to describe 'de-Eurofication'. Putin and his movement see Moscow and Russia as a cultural urheimat for the Russo-Slavic people. This is not just opportunism and empire building. This is an echo of oldschool ethno-nationalism. If anything this is anti-opportunism, as the invasion came at a very stupid point in time and was poorly planned. The ethno-nationalist fervor of the inner circle (and probably Putin in particular) reaching critical mass and no longer being containable. In hindsight, recent Russian history has so many echoes of Germany in the 30s. We're just lucky that Ukraine turned out to be an extremely stubborn and loveable underdog to the expansionist beast in black. Incredibly luckily. If Ukraine had folded and been gobbled up - I'm pretty sure we'd be seeing a larger and much more horrific conflict. Russia with Ukraine integrated and weaponized? Then timing their expansion with China grabbing Taiwan? poo poo, I think Ukraine might have saved us from a very horrible timeline by being so very awesome at the right time in history. I hope they send the Russian army packing - if not, I think they will galvanize Europe into intervening as a non-NATO coalition. Ukraine has won over the hearts and minds of Europe. But getting back to my initial point - this is not just cold war power politics and cynical Realpolitik opportunism. We're seeing the emergence, and hopefully swift abortion, of an ethno-nationalist murderstate. Churchill did get it mostly right in his much maligned quote about fascism returning in the guise of anti-fascism - except it is nazism returning as 'de-nazification'.
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Mar 3, 2022 22:48
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Macron channeling the France of old:quote:“The war in Europe no longer belongs to our school books; it is there, before our eyes,” Macron added in his address. https://www.aa.com.tr/en/europe/macron-addresses-nation-on-ukraine-to-convene-leaders-in-eu-summit/2521843
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Mar 3, 2022 22:58
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cinci zoo sniper posted:Ehrm, you’re replying to a comment about a specific video on Twitter. Sorry, my bad. I still think it's important to underline that this is about ethno-nationalism as major media (at least from my perspective) keep trying to frame this in terms of a resurgent cold war. This is not about rebuilding USSR. Even if the cold war was mostly about power blocs and proxy wars, there was a communist vs capitalist conflict underpinning it all. This time around Kreml is something far more sinister.
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Mar 3, 2022 23:08
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MikeC posted:They do, which makes their failures so far so preplexing. Their initial moves were either the result of incompetent planning, or insufficient planning due to a last minute decision to invade, or a failure to understand that the Ukrainians would actually fight instead of simply watching uncoordinated Russian columns move in with their mouths open. The Ukrainian military is in a completely different league to what is was in 2014. Russia expected the military to remain mostly passive and/or simply give up. So I don't think it is perplexing at all - their failure to understand the Ukrainian will and ability to defend against invasion is a product of an increasingly extremist and detached Chekist apex. In a strong Chekist state realists make sure things like don't happen. I am absolutely sure that there are plenty of Russian top brass that understood things perfectly - or at least were capable of considering the risk of this scenario. With things already devolved into in yes-men focusing on internal power struggles (Putin isn't young and quite possibly ill) over the best interests of the state, that didn't really matter. The scary thing, as I see it, is that if history had happened slightly different - no covid to come in the way of whatever Russian expansion moves were planned during the Trump years, no illness (body and/or mind) causing Putin to advance the timetable at present, and/or no Zelensky to galvanize Ukraine - then Russia might have had time and opportunity to grow into a much more formidable fascist empire. We're certainly not in the clear yet, and the ongoing tragedy in Ukraine should not be considered the inevitable price of Putin's madness. I refuse to accept that there is nothing the world can do but watch and send aid. NATO might unable to act, but that just shows that Europe cannot rely solely on NATO for stability and safety. The interests of the US and Europe do not always align fully - and priorities certainly do not. But that's a thing few predicted: this invasion seems to have set Europe on a fast-track path to increased militarization and a more unified foreign and security policy. Depending on how the coming months play out, we could be looking at a world shedding even more cold war legacy, and moving towards new constellations and balances of power.
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Mar 4, 2022 20:32
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Shes Not Impressed posted:Given what we've experienced with our institutions and leaders completely failing during COVID, I'm also not sure why people have confidence in large, corrupt institutions being able to adapt. It's usually people who are themselves part of some large institution, either fully or partially on the way towards corruption and stagnation, that make these complains. Because in their world if they want and need to believe that all organizational rot can be fixed by 'adapting', 'getting smart' or 'learning the lesson'. They won't accept that organizational rot can't always be fixed, and when it can it isn't quick or easy. Another explanation is that respect for the enemy is a good thing to keep even when your enemy is making it difficult. We can see what it get Putin and cronies to severely underestimate Zelensky and the Ukrainian ability/will to defend. After more than half a century of cold war, I also think it's to consider they could have fallen this far. The Danish military analysts I've seen speak out in media seem to have weirdly high opinion of Russian capabilities and seeming almost unwilling to understand that Ukraine is actually able to fight back and hurt them. I guess it's the same in many other places. So a combination of projected delusion and echoes of the past is my guess. For some individuals, there may also be the kind of fetishization you mention, but I don't think it applies across the board. PederP fucked around with this message at 22:48 on Mar 4, 2022 |
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Mar 4, 2022 22:43
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Paladinus posted:Russia is kind of losing in the sense that it's very clear now that whatever unrealistic goals Putin had in mind, apart from NATO membership, they can't achieve using the military. The truth is Putin doesn't actually need a full victory to show at home. His core electorate are fairly uninformed and blindly support him, no matter what. If on Monday all propagandists start saying that the war was really only about NATO, that's what they're going to accept, mission accomplished. The majority of Russians who don't support Putin are simply disenfranchised and nihilistic, so nobody cares what they think. And the opposition media are crushed, and Putin's politically active detractors won't even be able to effectively utilise his apparent failure. Putin doesn't have a core 'electorate', Russia isn't a democracy.
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Mar 4, 2022 23:29
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Beefeater1980 posted:I’ll be interested to know what really happened with the negotiator guy in like 15 years when the real story comes out Apparently they had telephone conversations proving the treason. Pretty dumb to discuss such things on a regular phone connection considering the reach of the numerous intelligence agencies currently aligned with Ukraine.
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Mar 5, 2022 13:29
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Cheesus posted:Still, shooting Queef isn't a good look. He was shot during the arrest - it's quite possible he decided to go down 'fighting' rather find himself in an 'interrogation'. The Pravda article mentions they had telephone conversation recordings of his treason. Being able to interrogate and show off living proof that peace talks were not in good faith? Much preferable to a backroom execution. So yeah, shooting him doesn't look good - but mostly because it means they failed to take him alive.
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Mar 5, 2022 14:20
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Saladman posted:I suspect that the Russians assume that Brussels (both EU and NATO) are just doing what Washington tells them. It would be like to them if we sent a delegation to talk to Minsk - a waste of time because Luka doesn’t decide poo poo. Agreed. Putin seems completely unable to understand European politics and culture at the moment. Which is maybe not surprising considering what things were like when he was KGB in Germany, and how his dealings in recent years have been mostly with corrupt politicians. He considers Western Europe American vassals, and Eastern Europe Russian vassals stolen by the Americans. Interestingly, China seems to have a much better grasp on how to deal with the EU, and I expect Beijing is working overtime and how to adapt to the winds of change now blowing in Europe. If Russia wins in overtime and annexes part or all of Ukraine, NATO will be strengthened and Europe will be tied much more closely with the US. This would be a bad thing for China. If Ukraine repels the invasion without NATO involvement - Europe may distance itself from the US and NATO. Especially if Russia collapses as a regional power. Even more so if European boots end up on the ground (which I think could be the response to Russian going Grozny on Kyiv). This would be a good thing for China. I would not be surprised to see China start backing the EU as key to resolving this situation, while underlining that they consider the US an intruder in this conflict.
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Mar 5, 2022 15:48
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Despera posted:Europe has been for quite awhile drifting away from China. The authoritarianship, Uyghurs and the general lack of reciprocity have been sticking points. China is also a dictatorship looking to reclaim "lost" land. Even if Europe no longer needs NATO, I dont think it will be looking too much towards china economically or for its security concerns. I agree, but this likely a development China would like to reverse. This is harder if Europe ends up with a new iron curtain and a bigger US presence. A quick annexation by Putin would have weakened NATO and humiliated Europe and the US - that was the preferred outcome for China, I expect. however, a Russian pyrrhic victory is worse than a Russian defeat when it comes to Chinese interests, in my opinion.
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Mar 5, 2022 16:11
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Antigravitas posted:One does wonder if Russia's civil service is rotten through. Russia has more FSB headcount per capita than the USSR had for KGB. Sadly, I think Putin's Russia is very much a Chekist state, as shown by the ease and speed with which recent totalitarian measures were enacted. However, unlike the USSR, which had a parallel political hierarchy embedded in all companies and institutions, modern Chekist Russia seems to have been purely interested in controlling the capitalist structures underpinning the economy. As an aside, transitioning from the pre-sanction economy to a command economy is going to complete crush the economy of Russia far worse than most seem to realize. This isn't the 20th century where the economy was primarily agriculture and industry. The modern Russian economy is heavily integrated in the global economy, the service sector is much larger and the complexity in general is much higher. Putin doesn't have an ideology movement to accomplish this shift in the economy. Instead he talks about how Russia is a big, the world is more than Europe and the US, and he'll just do business with someone else. Essentially he wants to run a capitalist economy with a totalitarian regime at the top - that doesn't work - and works even worse when under heavy sanctions.
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Mar 5, 2022 16:32
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BIG FLUFFY DOG posted:Why does Russia like trains so much? Back when physical game distribution was thing, I was told that distributing games in the US took longer than in Russia, because the US had a dumb infrastructure for such a big country and it took forever to have teamsters and planes move everything. I don't know if that is still valid for physical distribution of stuff. Trains are awesome.
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Mar 5, 2022 18:46
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The crooks who've grown fat off Russia's feudalized crony capitalism are about to discover just how non-trivial running a command economy is. Planning and executing an invasion may be difficult, but transitioning overnight from laissez-faire capitalism to a command economy? That poo poo is much harder. Mess up the central planning of the economy and you don't just get a bogged down offensive and an embarrasing number of casualties. Bungle the central planning and you get famine, anarchy and/or complete breakdown of society. The regime can't just say "keep doing what you did before, substituting any closed-off markets with China and/or India". This isn't just going to look like a recession or even a bigger North Korea. This is going to be a complete meltdown of their economy. Kreml doesn't have a socialist economic system ready to pick up the slack when millions lose their income and supply chains break down. I am slightly baffled that so many analysts are down playing the effect of these sanctions, as just a period of economic hardship. Not trying to be a doomer, but I am somewhat worried at the potential resulting humanitarian disaster and the risk of economic meltdown not causing a clean regime change, but a splintering into a mess of warlords and break-away republics. That's another thing which baffles me: so many outsiders expect that economic breakdown will result in a bigger North Korea or a regime change. It can get a lot more messy than that and a lot more violent. I'm sure various intelligence agencies and foreign/state departments are perfectly aware of that risk, but I'm not confident they're all wise enough to consider it unequivocally a bad thing.
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Mar 5, 2022 21:38
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Nessus posted:"Now that we have set fire to any hope of being part of their world order Yeah, the Dugin rant comes off as an almost comically unaware text-based version of the bicycle self-wrecking meme.
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Mar 5, 2022 23:13
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MRLOLAST posted:I think there won't be any big problems accepting Ukrainian refugees in Europe. Same as what happened during the ex Yugoslavia war. Special provisions for immediate work permits to Ukrainian refugees have already been agreed on by parliament in Denmark. There is a massive labor shortage, and I'm pretty sure agriculture and business lobbyist are rubbing their hands right now. I also learned yesterday that several municipalities on the North Sea coast of Jutland have sizable Ukrainian minority communities. https://www.dr.dk/nyheder/indland/vestjylland-kan-forvente-mange-flygtninge-ukrainere-bor-taet-sammen-i-landsbyer
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Mar 6, 2022 12:43
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Cimber posted:5) Even if Putin is killed off, he's going to be replaced by someone from his inner circle who will just be like him. Russia is hosed for the next 50+ years with terrible leaders. I agree, but at least that someone can use the coup as an opportunity to withdraw and blame the failure and war crimes both on Putin and a secret nazi conspiracy which had infiltrated the military and Kreml. That's off-ramp for Russia as I see it - find scapegoats (and execute them asap) and claim they are 1) responsible for bungling the invasion, 2) responsible for any war crimes, 3) controlled by the tolerant liberal-fascist elites. This would be an absurd claim, but be a direct continuation of current propaganda. It gives the regime an excuse for all military failures (the invasion was sabotaged from the onset) to save face. They will then likely transition away from a kleptocratic free market economy towards a kleptocratic state capitalist economy, and perhaps even some kind of sham-socialism will be introduced. Best case, the new leader actually wants Russia to prosper and focuses on internal stability and rebuilding the economy. Worse case, a revanchist nutjob takes over, who in addition to rearming and militarizing in anticipation of round 2 vs Ukraine, introduces state-sponsored terrorism to replace or supplement the quite successful, but expensive and now rather exposed, destabilization efforts used by Putin. I really hope a softie takes over after Putin. Someone who is happy to live a life of luxury and would rather rebuild economic ties with the west than prepare for the second great patriotic war and revenge against Ukraine and friends. Shoigu's wikipedia page make him sound like a mellow guy: quote:Shoigu collects Indian, Chinese, and Japanese swords and daggers. He also enjoys bard songs and plays the guitar. He does water color paintings and graphics. He also enjoys collecting old pieces of wood, some of which he has shown to Putin. A weaboo bard/shaman who managed to show Putin some old wood? That's sounds like a much cooler Tzar.
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Mar 6, 2022 15:44
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mobby_6kl posted:My grandfather, the one stuck in Kyiv, is convinced Putin is a Marxist and is liberating the working classes in Donbas. Which is why he's not worried and convinced the Russians aren't shooting up his neighbors It's a good thing magic doesn't exist. Considering the impressive human capacity for magical thinking, we'd have torn reality to shreds well before inventing pants.
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Mar 6, 2022 19:29
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Trump posted:I Denmark's case the 7 billion grant is highly likely going to patch up all the holes the last 20 years of failed defense policy has caused; Actually buy and install the SM2 launchers and missiles on our frigates, as an example, instead of having them sail around with a hole in their deck. Pulling out some Leopard 2s from the mothballs and updating them, buying an ATGM system for the army and in the long term a big one will be more F-35 to supplement the 27 we already have ordered. Actually having surface-to-air capability and basic ammunition stores will also be a nice improvement over the current state of affairs.
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Mar 6, 2022 19:51
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Bremen posted:Those aren't guided, are they? That looked like a hell of a shot. They're also reloading pretty quickly. That's probably second nature to someone who drills with these constantly, but it still looks impressive. I do wonder why those Russian AFVs don't have any infantry support at all? It's probably entirely inconceivable those were abandoned or captured vehicles which were shot up on camera for some morale-boosting footage. It doesn't seem wise to just stand around in the open in broad daylight giving thumbs up to a camera after shooting up enemy vehicles that might have survivors or infantry support nearby. War is weird and I know that actual engagements have people doing many strange things, but these are supposedly special forces, and I would expect them to be slightly less cavalier about maintaining cover while in the possible vicinity of enemy combatants.
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Mar 6, 2022 21:10
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Ikasuhito posted:I just found this fascinating little history lesson by one of the Embassy accounts. Nazi collaborators during WW1 - really ahead of the times those guys.
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Mar 6, 2022 21:21
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TulliusCicero posted:When did Russia go from Godless Communists to borne again Christians so quickly? There is an old Soviet joke: A: "Are you an Orthodox Christian?" B: "I am believer, but I don't practice it openly." A: "But religion is opium for the people!?!?!?? What about our Socialist ideals?" B: "I practice them openly, but I am no believer." Orthodox Christianity was only briefly suppressed. It is now a key part of the power structure, as it always was. Look at Putin's presidential inauguration - it looked like a monarch being crowned by the church.
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Mar 7, 2022 14:40
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ronya posted:Drifting o/t, but I think about this headline sometimes: Absolutely, and it goes both ways. Conservatives and free market liberals regularly cheer when fascists invade or rise up inside socialist nations.
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Mar 7, 2022 15:35
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Dante posted:I'm always curious when people post stuff like this. What current countries do you consider to be a socialist nation right now? I was talking about the historical context. The post mentioned events of the second world war. What nations right are now socialist and/or to what extent those who claim to be, are so, is very much out of scope for this thread, I think. But another way to put it then without invoking the spectre of socialism: 'a lot of people are bad and will happily cheer their preferred enemy getting chewed up by someone they should, in principle, also oppose'. The perverted truth of what the old 'enemy of my enemy' thing can also represent. I just wanted to highlight it's a human thing, and not at all restricted to socialists. Trump posted:Stop with the bad takes and talking out your rear end. To be fair, the so called 'footnote' policy era was a thing, and Denmark was a weirdly bothersome member of NATO back then. But that is very much in the past. I agree with your points on the current state of Danish NATO membership.
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Mar 7, 2022 15:58
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Trump posted:And the danish society is still saddled by a weird anti-militaristic sentiment (1864 is 150 years ago, let it go people), but it's changing. Also an abysmal treatment of returning veterans, because of stereotyping them as violent sociopaths, when the majority are big, dumb kids who want to go on an adventure.
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Mar 7, 2022 16:11
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Postorder Trollet89 posted:The fact that Denmark can be in nato but not have any defense obligations to the union itself is a disgrace. We'll be voting about removing that exemption in a few months time.
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Mar 7, 2022 16:15
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Nenonen posted:Denmark is neutral in the Dungeons and Dragons alignment sense. I'm sorry but we're N (LE).
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Mar 7, 2022 17:38
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Rad Russian posted:He's probably getting updates from scared yes-men telling him that everything is going well and the Russian army is kicking rear end. Yes, this is terrible and almost comical reality of despotic rule. 'Middle management' need to translate reality into reports that will not get them executed or tempt the leader into doing something stupid - but they also need to translate orders going the chain into something that actually works in reality and results in something than can translated back into what the despot wants to happen. Russian middle management clearly failed at both. They managed to deliver reports to Putin that tempted him into making a dumb invasion - good middle managers would have steered him away from ever embarking on that plan. But when it did happen they also failed at replacing the plan with something better. Ideally, they'd have found some irrelevant detail for the despot to micromanage to keep him happy and off their backs. Power hierarchies cannot function without middle management doing these things at multiple levels. Crap, I've spent too much time in the corporate world.
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Mar 7, 2022 18:41
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fuctifino posted:Yeah, sorry, I wasn't aware the invasion was all known about back then. I only started following the events in Ukraine a week or two before they crossed the border. The tweet was just something I saw blowing up in my corner of twitter. It's kind of interesting that the UK has gone this route unlike Denmark. As most of you know we have an extremely harsh legislation considering immigration (and not just brown ones - being allowed to bring a non-EU partner/spouse is expensive and difficult, American students regularly get deported due to minor mistakes filling out paperwork, etc.) and asylum. Almost all of that was completely waived not just for Ukrainian immigrants, but also (mostly) for refugees previously staying in Ukraine, Part of this is due to populism and employers being exceptionally thirsty for labor, but from most of the political parties there did seem to be a genuine wish to actually take in refugees from Ukraine. The UK seems to be in this weird role where the government is extremely vocal in support of Ukraine, sanctions against Russia and helping refugees. But the actions of the government (at least seen from the outside - I know little about UK politics) are just so wildly incongruous with what is being said, that it is almost comical. I just don't understand why? My preconception is that every politician is a scumbag, so it's not that part I don't get. But isn't the public support for pro-Ukraine and taking refugees strong enough to make it an easy choice to have actions match words? The UK also needs labor, so I'd imagine employers are every bit as thirsty for immigrant labor as here in Denmark. Is it still Brexit politics at work or is Boris and his gang just plain malevolent? I guess I just answered my own long-winded question. But still, people like Duda and Orban are taking in refugees. The Danish social democrats are doing so, too - and they're even anti-labor import unlike the rest. UK politicians are an enigma.
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Mar 7, 2022 20:26
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bad_fmr posted:Mostly just the Germans. Well, and the swamp Germans in Belgium. And a very, very influential gas and wind industry lobby. It started out as the cold war anti-nuclear movement, then cognitive sunk cost kind of set in and the lobbyist took full advantage. Sweden is an example of a European country which has a more balanced and rational view of nuclear power. If it wasn't for the well-run Swedish nuclear power, Scandinavia would have sporadic black-outs already during any period with low wind and water energy output.
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Mar 8, 2022 08:40
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lilljonas posted:Yeah nuclear is not this amazingly cost efficient panacea for energy that some people would like to believe. Building new reactors is a pretty bad idea most of the time if you look at cost, it used to be cheap but that's because renewables used to be way more expensive per kWh just a few years ago. On the other hand, nuclear is amazingly cost-efficient if you look at the effect it has on reducing the collective cost per kWh during periods of low output from renewables. Power-to-X is so horrendously inefficient at this point in time, that a full transition to renewables would have a very different average cost per kWh. Even though nuclear output isn't as static as some claim, it still is quite inflexible, and getting the balance between renewables and nuclear right is not easy - so ideally Europe should coordinate reactor construction much more and sign binding agreements on shared responsibility. But from a holistic point of view, renewables + nuclear is far more cost effective than either in isolation. Until power-to-X becomes more efficient, building new reactors is the only alternative to a continued reliance on fossils, and by extension, oil and gas. It's somewhat frustrating to see a very simplistic (and this is not aimed at you, but at lobbyist and politicians) kWh price comparison being thrown around as if it was a static metric. The EU regulated power market has the effect of making energy prices seem more stable than they are, and also obfuscates the actual cost (grossly simplified the marginal kWh price is determined by the most expensive supplier rather than the cheapest).
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Mar 8, 2022 09:58
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Another aspect of the whole sieging and demolishing Ukraine, is that Belarus already has an army refusing to move against Ukraine. Assuming that the Belarus public has somewhat better access to information on what is going on inside Ukraine, I would think that there is a limit to how brutally Russia can conduct this war before the army of Belarus become too outraged and turn against Lukashenko and possibly even Russia. Especially if the Russians are suddenly not looking quite so fearsome after sending everything combat-viable and much that isn't into Ukraine - and failing to achieve objectives. Russia is de facto occupying Belarus and propping up the Lukashenko regime. That's another reason the Putin regime shouldn't walk away with a compromise or a victory - it will mean Belarus has a much harder time freeing itself from the Russian grasp. A Russian 'defeat' (ie being unable to force any kind of concessions from Ukraine and possibly suffering a coup/putsch) would increase the likelihood that Belarus can get back on track to a better future - it wasn't that long ago that Lukashenko lost the election and then just grabbed power anyway. There's still hope for Belarus too. And I hope they end up helping Ukraine either directly or by making the entire venture untenable for Russia due to being forced out of Belarus.
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Mar 8, 2022 13:22
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Blut posted:The Russians for all their issues have still occupied almost half of Ukraine east of the Dnepr, and have expanding bridgeheads to the west of it. Russia is absolutely not occupying all that territory. There is a difference between their lines of advance and what they control/occupy. Lines like that look good on media presentations but it's a poor representation of the actual conditions. Look at the urban centers and how few have been taken. That Kharkiv hasn't fallen is highly indicative of what the state of the offensive is. UAR is wisely not engaging Russian units in pitched battles outside of Urban centers, but that does not mean the Russians have occupied vast swathes of the country.
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Mar 8, 2022 13:28
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I'd just like to comment that the predictive value of war games is vastly overblown, and I'm very happy that they are only a small part of the information and advice provided to decision makers. I'm not targeting anyone in this thread, because I've only seen pretty reasonable references to war games, but elsewhere I've seen a lot of "war games predict that doing X has Y chance of leading to nuclear war therefore it is an unacceptable course of action" or even dumber appeals to war games as an authority on the future. If a room full of mastermind analysts and psychologists working from woefully incomplete information and an absurdly complex context were truly capable of these prodigious levels of prediction the world be a very different place. The world is unpredictable and humans are anything but rational actors. Trying to predict the irrational is itself irrational. Not that doesn't mean war games aren't useful as part of the greater body of advice for decision makers and the public. But it's not some kind of scientific method to predict the future. Now this isn't supposed to be clancychat, so I'm not arguing for or against any specific outcome or trying to steer this into a discussion of potential escalation scenarios. I am just voicing an opinion that just like economists should inform, but not dictate, fiscal and monetary policy - war games should not dictate security and military policy. And they certainly should not dictate foreign policy as in diplomacy, because that's an entirely different ballgame of crazy and unpredictable. So let's just remember all remember that military analysts have historically gotten quite a lot wrong. The number of military conflicts with an unexpected outcome or even some kind of paradigm shift is legion. I am much more interested in listening to those analysts who're commenting on and looking at events as they're unfolding than those who seem want to talk only about what they expected to happen and what they expect will happen next. And that's where a lot of the 'Russia will inevitably win' comes from. It's an invasion - of course Ukraine can't 'win'. Even if they sent the invaders packing tomorrow, the tragedy which has already occurred won't be erased. Digressing a bit, I also don't get the weird insistence many people (including analysts) have on trying to deflate any sense of optimism on behalf of Ukraine. Yeah, we know, social media is full of propaganda, partial truths and downright lies. Yeah, we know, there is a multitude of things which can go wrong for Ukraine. But, and I hope you will forgive the soccer analogy because this is war and not entertainment, it feels like people are telling the fans of the underdog team which is ahead 2-0 at 30 minutes that they're absolutely haven't won yet, and that they will likely lose, so don't get your hopes up. No thanks, I'd rather not give in to pessimism - even though Covid taught us well in that regard. I'll cherish every bit of hope that perhaps Ukraine has a chance at not being demolished and/or annexed by a vile, bloodthirsty and tyrannical regime. It's not going to be any less devastating to watch helplessly if Ukraine falls, if we let pessimism take hold already. At least not for me. Optimism is necessary to get through and to mobilize international support. I'd rather not think the world is throwing support at Ukraine simply to delay the inevitable. No, the future is yet to be written, and every dawn Kyiv is Ukrainian is a good dawn. As an observer, willfully blind optimism is better than sour pessimism in this case. The lovely timelines are going to carry plenty punishment on their own, no need to start living mentally in them yet. The people making decisions and fighting this war on the ground need to consider every possible outcome, including the awful ones, and I don't envy them. I'll enjoy the optimism I'm indirectly gifted by their sacrifice.
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Mar 8, 2022 15:31
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RBA-Wintrow posted:Surely NATO has been observing Russian military exercises all these years? I know the Russians observe ours. Have they only had heavily scripted exercises under ideal conditions or something? Some NATO countries have military exercises where they don't even use blanks as they're too expensive, so they say "bang" instead. I think the idea of conserving material and ammunition to keep down costs as much as possible is so widespread, that it probably seemed perfectly normal to have exercises being done with weird substitutions and omissions. Half of NATO can't field a functional army due to skimping on supplies and key parts of their military having useless equipment. The difference is that those countries don't line up for an invasion with junk armies, keep the invasion plans secret from most of the army while dealing with lies folowing up and down the chain of command about how perfect everything is. Well they do sort of, but not on this scale. The US is special because it can actually project power in an effective fashion - most militaries can't do this, but because they're all either being carried by the US or haven't fought anyone but insurgents or extremely poor and small nations, noone has noticed that most nations have dipped deep into the peace dividends and can't actually do what they claim on paper.
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Mar 8, 2022 15:39
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mightygerm posted:I can't speak for everyone, but for me its less pessimism and more "don't get complacent from early victories and positive twitter posts'. If the public sentiment is that Ukraine is successfully holding the Russians off, that leads one to conclude that stronger supportive actions may not be necessary. It might be just 'fine' to sanction and provide arms at the level we're at. I'd prefer if there was as much pressure as possible on the politicians. Fair point. But there's such a horrific humanitarian crisis going on that even if one is hyper-optimistic about the military aspects there's no lack of good reason to help on an individual level. But I certainly agree that decision makers need to take a cynical view of the possible outcomes and not get blinded by optimism.
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Mar 8, 2022 15:42
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Antillie posted:Am I the only one who gets the feeling this will end with Russia taking some territory from Ukraine in the east and south but being forced to recognize the sovereignty of the rest of Ukraine? (Which will then go on to join the EU and NATO) AKA: Winter War 2: Electric Boogaloo. For the sake of Belarus, I hope it ends with some kind of Russian military collapse (I don't wish for a dissolution of the Russian, just some kind of miracle coup) - otherwise they're going to be stuck as a vassal for who knows how long, and that is not what the people want. The elections showed pretty clearly they wanted a different kind of future.
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Mar 8, 2022 15:47
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the popes toes posted:Yeah, and to be honest, I believe that Putin views EU membership as equally alarming, and I do not believe Ze is going to promise to never join the EU. It may come down to a Russian face saving measure, not joining NATO, and I think will remain on the table for that reason. Indeed, it seems the weird new Russian worldview considers the EU 'The nation of Germany-France and its vassals', and they absolutely do not think Germany-France should have Slavic vassal states, and under no circumstances have a 'Russian' bufferstate. It's sad that a kleptocracy turned into a revanchist chekist state in the span of a decade. It's even more sad that very few picked up in time just how rotten the regime had become.
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Mar 8, 2022 16:32
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