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Charlz Guybon
Nov 16, 2010

Sinteres posted:

Gotta say if this is true I'm not expecting the invasion phase to last very long.

https://twitter.com/AlSuraEnglish/status/1496690015946297346

Even in a crushing overall Russian victory over just a few weeks, that kind of seizure is really hard to sustain given the distance behind the front line.

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Charlz Guybon
Nov 16, 2010

WAR CRIME GIGOLO posted:

Vasylkiv airbase has been targeted in missile strike



I honestly don't have words for this. Russia has ended the long peace.

Seems improbably risky when you can just drive on the city from Belarus.
https://twitter.com/marcorubio/status/1496689463761817600?s=21

Charlz Guybon
Nov 16, 2010
Anyone seen anything else about the Belorussians getting involved? https://twitter.com/NatashaBertrand/status/1496717859107618820

Charlz Guybon
Nov 16, 2010
Holy poo poo.

https://mobile.twitter.com/Billbrowder/status/1496585861110059009

Also, the time delay here is ridiculous. Five minutes would be much better

Charlz Guybon
Nov 16, 2010

punk rebel ecks posted:

Unless Russia invades a major NATO country like Poland, I can't imagine any world power intervening.
If Russia attacked Estonia the other Baltic states and Poland would defend it and that would be enough to suck in Germans and the rest.

Charlz Guybon
Nov 16, 2010

Majorian posted:

Yeah, this is pretty much where I'm at. I'm hoping that the objective here is to force Ukraine to accept the independence of the breakaway regions and permanently dissuade any further attempts to drift into the Western orbit - that would be the sanest goal. But that second point in particular concerns me, too.

I think he's going to try and take all the south and east. Basically everything that he called "Lenin's gift"

Charlz Guybon
Nov 16, 2010

Nenonen posted:

Wellllll it's not that straightforward. Finland was also neutral in 1956, 1968, 1979, 2008, 2014... can you say that Finland is under more threat now than previously?

Also bear in mind that Finland has no territorial disputes with Russia, no breakaway provinces like Ossetia, and there is no significant Russian minority either. Unlike Georgia and Ukraine, there just isn't anything to fight over.

Russia has also previously warned that joining Nato would worsen relations between the two countries, and while Nato would protect Finland from being invaded it wouldn't do much against all other sorts of malicious behaviour, such as cyber attacks or bringing refugees to the border. Nato membership would also oblige Finland to join in the defense of other members in case there is war, which I find just as unlikely - but if that did happen then strict military neutrality would be better.

But on the other hand, Russia once again displays itself as an unpredictable brute of a neighbour, and these kinds of preparations have to be made during fair weather, as the WW2 showed that finding help once the war has started is difficult and can make unfortunate bed fellows. I'm in favour of membership personally, but I still don't think it's a no-brainer.

Putin said Russia should not let the republics go in 1917. One of those countries was Finland.

Charlz Guybon
Nov 16, 2010
https://twitter.com/Liveuamap/status/1496812308277964801

Charlz Guybon
Nov 16, 2010
Violation of the rules of war right off the bat

https://www.thedailybeast.com/putin-sent-in-troops-disguised-with-ocse-white-peace-monitor-symbols-and-ukrainian-uniforms-says-kyiv

Charlz Guybon
Nov 16, 2010

Alchenar posted:

On the one hand, parading POW's is a bit of a war crime, not good.

On the other hand, militaries that are getting their poo poo kicked in all along the front do not really have opportunities to take prisoners, so I don't really begrudge Ukraine taking an information warfare win.

Sure, but it's not nearly as bad as launching rockets into cities or dressing up your soldiers as the enemy. The later can get you summarily executed.

Charlz Guybon
Nov 16, 2010
https://twitter.com/juliaioffe/status/1496822443947839495

Charlz Guybon
Nov 16, 2010
Seems like the only place that Ukraine is doing well is near Kharkov, which I guess is to be expected since most of their military was bordering the separatist areas.

T-80 with it's turret blown off
https://twitter.com/GirkinGirkin/status/1496808569890508802

Charlz Guybon
Nov 16, 2010
Russians are getting bloodied near Kharkov.

NSFW - DEAD BODY

https://twitter.com/veyselmidilli3/status/1496817380424617986

Charlz Guybon
Nov 16, 2010

Ola posted:

loving lol if the Russians fail.

Eh...the Russians aren't going to be as cautious and methodical as an American army. They want to blast through as fast as possible, and if that means losing a hundred men where we would lose ten, they'll do that.

Charlz Guybon
Nov 16, 2010
https://twitter.com/theragex/status/1496836155429556235

https://twitter.com/ThomasVLinge/status/1496830739035439109

Charlz Guybon
Nov 16, 2010

ZombieLenin posted:

I like Corbyn, I really do; however, right this very second—off the cuff commentary by Marcon aside—there is no risk of NATO involving itself in a shooting war with Russia.

On top of that, right this second, this feels to me like it’s August of 1939 and he’s wanting to hold a “NO WAR OVER POLAND!” rally.

I feel this is more of a 1938 Germany invades the rest of Czechoslovakia after Munich moment.

The 1939 moment will be next year when he invades the Baltics.

Charlz Guybon
Nov 16, 2010
Interesting

https://twitter.com/maxseddon/status/1496830841946837004

Charlz Guybon
Nov 16, 2010

fnox posted:

How can there be anything more Nazi than invading loving Europe? I don't understand, how the gently caress can those two ideas coexist in someone's brain?

Ukraine has a Jewish president who won 73% of the vote. Facts don't matter to these people

Charlz Guybon
Nov 16, 2010
:thunk:

https://twitter.com/dandrezner/status/1496844833314553856

Charlz Guybon
Nov 16, 2010

Dapper_Swindler posted:

https://twitter.com/ELINTNews/status/1496987322553876480

more info about the airport fight. VDV got wrecked.
Sounds too good.
I need to see photos or video before I believe it.

CNN was there. What do they say?

Charlz Guybon
Nov 16, 2010

BIG FLUFFY DOG posted:

so is trying to capture kyiv now a risky gamble or was the thread's assessment that russia wasn't doing as well as it thought it would on day 1 wrong

Kiev is not far at all from the Belorussian border. Even if they aren't doing as well as they hope, I would be extremely surprised if the Russians don't at least encircle the city within the week. Falling within 2-3 days still remains very plausible.

Charlz Guybon
Nov 16, 2010
https://twitter.com/EuromaidanPress/status/1497135949180026881

Charlz Guybon
Nov 16, 2010

Dog Friday posted:

If things are looking grim on the conventional war front, will Ukraine at some point start pulling men/resources out of the battles to save for insurgency stuff later?

If they're calling for civilians to prepare Molotov cocktails and recruiting child soldiers, they're already well on their way to preparing for insurgency.

These things will not stop the Russian army, but they will provide lots of martyr's for the cause that will harden the feelings of the people to resist occupation.

Charlz Guybon
Nov 16, 2010

Fame Douglas posted:

That's pretty easy to say when you're in a country that doesn't depend on Russian energy.

Only because they foolishly shut down their nuclear power plants

Charlz Guybon
Nov 16, 2010

KitConstantine posted:

Ukrainian defense twitter corroborating

https://twitter.com/DefenceU/status/1497182117259739141?t=ewfg5HGnykseHVyTMn0DMA&s=19

Russia needs to get their targeting poo poo together

In 1904 the Russian navy on it's way to the Pacific sank a British fishing fleet in the channel because they were convinced they were Japanese torpedo boats.

This is nothing new.

Charlz Guybon
Nov 16, 2010

EvilHawk posted:

https://twitter.com/LindseyMastis/status/1497189682878291981

Guess that answers the quesiton of what they've been doing all morning.

Two hundred!?

Charlz Guybon
Nov 16, 2010
https://twitter.com/maxwelltani/status/1497299896398974984

Charlz Guybon
Nov 16, 2010

khwarezm posted:

What would he even do with him? Killing him would just make him a martyr. Sticking him in a cell seems particularly gauche in this day and age but then I suppose I shouldn't put that past Putin considering... everything.

I think Putin's best option is to hope he flees the country.

https://twitter.com/briantylercohen/status/1497079265434685470

Charlz Guybon
Nov 16, 2010
https://twitter.com/RALee85/status/1497414994455056387

Charlz Guybon
Nov 16, 2010
What is this even supposed to mean?

https://twitter.com/AFP/status/1497322555895656453

Charlz Guybon
Nov 16, 2010

OctaMurk posted:

This is the largest ever war between two countries that contain McDonalds, incidentally

What about Burger King?

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zlaK98w9jJE

Charlz Guybon
Nov 16, 2010
https://twitter.com/DavidBegnaud/status/1497377174789103619

Charlz Guybon
Nov 16, 2010
These tik tokkers are insane.

We definitely haven't been visited by aliens, because folks would be live streaming their abduction

Charlz Guybon
Nov 16, 2010

Randarkman posted:

I think they genuinely weren't ready for the attack from Belarus, yes. Russia does have an advantage in terms of equipment, especially aircraft, but haven't really been able to push it decisively yet as quickly as they seem to have been hoping.

It's literally a hundred kilometers from Chernobyl to Kiev.

Not much they can do when they're that close.

Charlz Guybon
Nov 16, 2010
Holy poo poo, I didn't believe it. That's like 200-300 dead Russian paratroopers

https://twitter.com/ELINTNews/status/1497431853531381762

Charlz Guybon
Nov 16, 2010

wins32767 posted:

So here's something I don't get. The mechanized attack on Kiev came down from Belorussia down the closest road, the one that took it past Chernobyl. That road goes along the Tetereiv river and the first bridge is at Ivankiv. From there, looking at google maps, you can tell by the road closures that the Russians took basically a straight shot to Kiev from there. The total distance is ~180km, which they've managed in 2 days. That says that the bridge wasn't blown and that no meaningful forces were put in front of them to slow them down. I don't get that decision. I guess the Ukrainians want to fight in Kiev? It's a really long single road logistical tether for the Russians to be pushing supplies and reinforcements down, so maybe that's it?

Kiev is a really big city. WIkipedia says 839 km2 (324 sq mi) with 3.4 million in the metro.

Unless they're outnumbered 10 to 1, defenders who know a city like that well can run rings around invaders.

Charlz Guybon
Nov 16, 2010

Captain Stalin posted:

Man, this war is doing to paratroopers what world war 1 did to cavalry.

I mean, this has always been the truth with paratroopers.

They're huge risk, huge reward.

Charlz Guybon
Nov 16, 2010

Delthalaz posted:

I'm rooting for Ukraine as hard as most but I'm trying to temper my expectations here. From what I understand Ukraine holding out a week, or two weeks, would be pretty remarkable considering Russian strength. (let alone 'winning' whatever that would mean. If Ukraine won the war it would be such a mind boggling humiliation Putin would be deposed and dead). It's been two days

Ukraine is almost certainly still going to lose, but it seems like the KIA the Russians will take will be a lot higher than expected.

Charlz Guybon
Nov 16, 2010

Nazzadan posted:

Independent of the actual conflict, these past 2 days have been home to some of the loving stone cold hardest statements known to man.

The Ukranian ambassador saying to the Russian ambassador "there is no purgatory for war criminals, you're going straight to Hell."
The 25 year old girl responding to "what are you doing after this" with "making molotovs."
The whole Ghost of Kyiv thing.
"Ukranians, surrender." "Russian warship, go gently caress yourselves."
"How long can you hold out?" "Forever."
And now the reoccuring "welcome to Hell, Russians." Just absolute galvanizing poo poo, beyond inspirational. Good luck to Kyiv tonight.

Missed that one. Link?

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Charlz Guybon
Nov 16, 2010

A big flaming stink posted:

Tweet has been deleted, I guess the evidence didn't hold up?

https://twitter.com/ELINTNews/status/1497440267829399553

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