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Phlegmish
Jul 2, 2011



Think the plan is to set up some sort of East Ukraine puppet state, as per usual? Russia just keeps doing the same thing to its neighbors over and over again

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Phlegmish
Jul 2, 2011



Dapper_Swindler posted:

i dont think it will work

I could see them attempt to conquer a bunch of territory on behalf of Donetsk and Luhansk

Phlegmish
Jul 2, 2011



TulliusCicero posted:

This^

Russian morale seems very low. Ukraine has grandmothers telling Russian soldiers to their face that they will die on their soil.

That poo poo has to get to you if you were told the people would greet you as liberators.

It is looking somewhat like Russia is biting off more than it can chew, although it's still early days. Difficult to say how Ukrainian resistance will continue to evolve

Phlegmish
Jul 2, 2011



Flesnolk posted:

I'm confused at what seems to be a lot of signs of Russian logistical collapse. Their troops really shouldn't be running out of fuel or food two days into a war - I know stuff happens fast in modern wars, but come on.

Keep in mind that we're mostly getting Ukrainian info about the situation, for whatever reason Russia's propaganda game really is not on point this time around - although that itself is possibly arguably a bad sign for the Russians.

e: regardless, one aspect I'm not impressed with are these random-rear end air drops

Phlegmish fucked around with this message at 10:57 on Feb 26, 2022

Phlegmish
Jul 2, 2011



Play posted:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=quipA4hHCV4

Bit of an interesting video about the current situation in Georgia, and their (ten year long now) effort to join NATO and get some protection from the Russian blister of 'South Ossetia'

The minimum goal of this invasion seems to be to similarly turn Ukraine into damaged goods, but that was basically already the case with Crimea and the two 'people's republics'. It's kind of shocking just how brazen and unnecessary this attack is, and I'm hoping it ends poorly for Putin (with minimal loss of life otherwise)

Phlegmish
Jul 2, 2011



Poland refusing to play WC play-off against Russia, according to the BBC live feed:

https://www.bbc.com/news/live/world-europe-60517447

e: first Eurovision and now football, they've really done it now

Phlegmish
Jul 2, 2011



These random air drops are still weird as hell to me, even without any enemy units you would still struggle to occupy an entire city with just a few dozen soldiers

Phlegmish
Jul 2, 2011



Libluini posted:

Almost certainly not. It would be suicidal. Just sacrificing large chunks of your army only works in video games, were you don't have to content with things like mutinies or cratering morale.

It would be a very stereotypically WW2-Russian thing to do, which means I'm sceptical as well. I think they're just loving up a lot of their attacks rather than purposely sacrificing troops

Phlegmish
Jul 2, 2011



Seems like the Bitcoin drive is actually legit and they've raised the equivalent of more than nine million dollars so far:

https://www.bbc.com/news/live/world-europe-60517447

Phlegmish
Jul 2, 2011



Drone_Fragger posted:

Russia had no plan, it was literally "march towards Kiev with our big numbers and zelensky will surrender and all the Ukraine army will surrender and then all the ukranians will wave Russia flags and hoot And holler to celebrate their liberation from the yoke of ukranian fascism"

What's actually happened is decades of command incompetence, corruption, poor morale and motivation has resulted in the army being totally incapable of doing combined operations, troops surrendering due to lack of supplies and baffling decisions such as sending unsupported tank advances into obvious ambushes, while Putin's rhetoric has turned the entire ukrainian populace against him and mobilised everyone who can wield a gun against the invasion.

While I'm tempted to agree, I remember people earlier in the thread were pointing out that the Battle of Baghdad took several weeks...so I suppose that if Russia achieves its objectives within the following days, that's still arguably a success. Problem is that it's not very clear what those objectives even are.

Phlegmish
Jul 2, 2011



nurmie posted:

I'm kind of sensing that Russian forces are not particularly interested in anything west of the Dnieper, tbh. All pushes towards Lvov/Odessa thus far seemed to be feints.

I get the sense that Russia's main objective might be to secure the Crimea-Donbas land bridge after all, with regime change/getting Kiev being secondary to that.

You think it will end with Russia attempting to set up an integrated puppet state across Eastern Ukraine? It's possible, they would struggle to hold the West (particularly Lviv) long-term.

Phlegmish
Jul 2, 2011



cinci zoo sniper posted:

There’s a “referendum” in Belarus today, on allowing Russian nukes to be deployed in Belarus.

I've got a feeling I somehow know the result already

Phlegmish
Jul 2, 2011



Does the Ukrainian government still have donation links up? I know they were asking for Bitcoins (lol) yesterday. Wouldn't mind supporting them in some capacity.

Phlegmish
Jul 2, 2011



steinrokkan posted:

there was a legit link, but probably also a bunch of opportunist fakes

Yeah, the main link being legit was what I'd gathered as well.

I see the argument for prioritizing proper charity, but this is a situation where one side is so obviously in the right that I wouldn't mind supporting them directly.

Phlegmish
Jul 2, 2011



Charliegrs posted:

I've seen a few videos like this where regular citizens are stepping in front of tanks. I'm surprised as hell that the Russians haven't been shooting at them when they do that. I wonder if that speaks to the level of morale that the average Russian soldier has right now in Ukraine. Like I'm sure many of them don't really believe the bullshit they've been hearing from Russian media about Ukrainians all being Nazis and whatnot. And Ukrainians arent super foreign to Russians like they share very similar cultures and of course most Ukrainians speak Russian. It probably must feel like if American soldiers were sent to invade Canada.

The one thing with this sort of propaganda is that it kind of cuts both ways, presupposing a measure of restraint or humanity on the part of the aggressor. I'm reminded of how the Chinese government frames the famous Tank Man picture from the Tiananmen Square protests, when forced to comment on it.

Phlegmish
Jul 2, 2011



ummel posted:

https://twitter.com/Ukraine/status/1497594592438497282

This link has been up for a day from the official account and has been corroborated as official (you can check the comments).

Thanks for the repost!

Phlegmish
Jul 2, 2011



I've been out of the loop - does Russia now have full control over Mariupol? Kharkiv fortunately still seems to be holding out, though in the south Russia's been advancing more than I would have liked.

Phlegmish
Jul 2, 2011



WAR CRIME GIGOLO posted:

Mariupol holds strong.

It is being starved out though.

That's good, but it's worrying just how many Ukrainian cities are under Russian siege at the moment.

Phlegmish
Jul 2, 2011



Might have been posted already, but Unilever and L'Oreal now also pulling back from Russia:

https://www.bbc.com/news/live/world-europe-60657155

All of these withdrawals have to be severely impacting the average Russian at this point.

Phlegmish
Jul 2, 2011



How are u posted:

I genuinely find them to be beautiful

Same, honestly. They're sleek and elegant in a minimalistic way.

Phlegmish
Jul 2, 2011



Sinteres posted:

Yeah we've been pretty successful at establishing a collective punishment regime against the average Russian. Even worse, as energy and grain prices continue to rise, that punishment seems likely to extend to much of the rest of the world too.

It's unfortunate that regular citizens are suffering, but if they even theoretically affect Russia's ability to wage war, the sanctions are worth it.

Putin getting removed from power is too much to hope for, unfortunately

Phlegmish
Jul 2, 2011



PerilPastry posted:

Globally just about everyone's long since switched to just in time delivery rather than warehousing like in the old days, right? So it's not like stores are going to be sitting on a massive stockpile of conditioner or Adidas to cover shortfalls in stock.

That's a good point, we should be seeing the effects fairly quickly. Like Snowy I'd also like to get some sort of glance at how life has changed for Russians already

Phlegmish
Jul 2, 2011



Sinteres posted:

I don't think causing people in poor countries to starve to "even theoretically" help people in Europe is a good trade, but it's completely unsurprising that elites in the global North feel that way.

Russia is at least partly in Europe, and all these divestments can only occur because it was closely economically interconnected with the 'global North' to begin with.

Phlegmish
Jul 2, 2011



After McDonald's, now Starbucks is pausing operations:

https://www.bbc.com/news/live/world-europe-60657155

Phlegmish
Jul 2, 2011



Ukraine has weapons, of mass destruction, and needs to be stopped!

Dick Ripple posted:

Anyone know the current situation in and around Kyiv? Last I heard the Russians were ready to assault it, but they just seem to still be hanging out in that convoy. Is Kyiv surrounded? Or are weapons and supplies still being delivered? Also, what are the odds Zelensky films himself in urban combat?

According to the BBC, the Ukrainians are still dug in near Kyiv, and the city has not been fully surrounded (yet).

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-60671329

Phlegmish
Jul 2, 2011



the popes toes posted:

Earlier mentioned but appears now they'll go through with it. No reason to have a cold grill at McD's just sitting there.

https://twitter.com/AlexKhrebet/status/1501573193412366339

Once again

Phlegmish
Jul 2, 2011



Nieuw Amsterdam posted:

People always flee from the winning country in a war, right?

I'd be so angry if I were Russian. Just trying to live your life and then the boss man decides to start an unwinnable war, thereby also completely destroying the economy in the process

Phlegmish
Jul 2, 2011



I've been using this site to keep track of developments:

https://liveuamap.com/

I like that it marks everything on the map

Phlegmish
Jul 2, 2011



KitConstantine posted:

Apparently Russian forces pulled out of Skadovsk - there were two helicopters shot down in that area earlier today.

The now-completely yellow chunk under Kherson is approximately where Skadovsk is located.

Could be the Russians realized that a counterattack was unlikely from that area and pulled the troops up to Melitopol/Kherson/Mykolaiv where they're more needed. Still, doesn't seem like a great sign when you have to pull back from already occupied areas...

I just found out Kherson Oblast is run by a governor from the We Have To Live Here party

I love that sassy party name

Phlegmish
Jul 2, 2011



Sucrose posted:

So this upcoming Russian push on Kyiv is pretty much going to be the thing that decides the war, right? If the Russians fail and take huge losses trying to storm Kyiv, it pretty much means that they're never going to take it and are going to just keep taking losses until they totally collapse.

On the other hand, if they somehow do manage to conquer Kyiv in this upcoming assault (tho it seems really really unlikely) it would show that the Russians can indeed take Ukrainian cities if they surround them and blast them to bits for a while first. Luckily from what I've heard Kyiv has been turned into a fortress and it's really, really unlikely that the Russians will be able to successfully seize it. And if they take a lot of losses trying I think that's going to be pretty much the end for them.

Though Putin is apparently still convinced of his ability to dismember Ukraine, since I've read that the Russian military is going ahead and planning a fake referendum in the city of Kherson, in which the citizens of Kherson will mysteriously all decide to vote to secede from Ukraine. But it sounds like they're having trouble getting anyone at all there to participate in the farce.

There's no way they can take Kyiv without incurring heavy losses, but unfortunately I wouldn't say that means they're completely unable to take it if they commit. If they do manage it, yeah, wait for the oblast to be turned into another fail Democratic People's Republic

Phlegmish
Jul 2, 2011



Reading on https://liveuamap.com/ that 2,187 civilians have been killed by shelling in Mariupol alone, which seems insane and a war crime

Phlegmish fucked around with this message at 16:30 on Mar 13, 2022

Phlegmish
Jul 2, 2011



cinci zoo sniper posted:

I’m not sure if that figure is accurate, as local authorities reported “just” 1600 a day or two ago. Either way, it’s an undeniable atrocity, and anyone having the gall to clamour about Russian liberators should be sent photos of Mariupol mass graves, which officials were forced to resort to a few days ago already.

I've read that Mariupol strongly backed Yanukovych back in the day, but with these atrocities that are being committed by the Russians I highly doubt that will translate into support for the occupying forces, or interest in setting up another garbage people's republic.

e: my mistake, they'd be part of Donetsk

Phlegmish fucked around with this message at 16:39 on Mar 13, 2022

Phlegmish
Jul 2, 2011



OddObserver posted:

Mariupol is Akhmetov's town. Akhemtov has previously aligned himself with Yanukovich, yes, but he is loyal to himself first.

Right, but do they have any desire to become a part of the DPR, let alone Russia?

Russia's biggest mistake, it seems, has been the equation of Russian speakers and Russians, and of Russians and collaborators.

Phlegmish
Jul 2, 2011



cinci zoo sniper posted:

No one has any desire to be a part of DNR, it’s a hellhole according to literally everyone - Ukrainians within and without, and Russians.

Do you have a source?

I totally believe it though, if I lived in Kherson or any other occupied city I would also be trying my absolute hardest to halt the creation of yet another tiny, partially recognized 'people's republic' forever doomed to remain within Russia's orbit.

Phlegmish
Jul 2, 2011



Is there some sort of list of Russian brands/companies we could or should be boycotting? My dad's already stopped pumping gas at filling stations owned by Lukoil.

Alchenar posted:

Yeah as Kofman has tweeted, it looks like the Russian military is very deliberately now going down a target list of industry in the country and blowing it up.

God Russia is almost cartoonishly evil

Phlegmish
Jul 2, 2011



Majorian posted:

Again, you need a strong economy to fund a war machine big enough to invade, occupy, and/or annex fairly large countries like Ukraine. Russia did have a big economy going into this war; it's not going to have as big of one coming out of it. It won't be able to fund the scale of military operations that it has over the past couple decades. It's going to look a lot more like Russia in the 90s.

"The sinews of war are infinite money."

Did Russia really have such a big economy to begin with, though? The comparison I've heard a few times now is that their economy is (was?) the size of that of the Benelux. Agreed that they're going to struggle to fund more military adventures, regardless.

Phlegmish
Jul 2, 2011



Majorian posted:

Yeah, their GDP in 2021 was basically the same as those three countries combined. In fairness, though, Netherlands and Belgium have moderately large economies of their own, and growth has been sluggish at best for Russia over the past few years. Obviously that's only going to get worse going forward.

Yeah. It's GDP in nominal terms, not PPP (purchasing power parity), but that factoid still struck me when I heard it. They just don't have a lot of economic margin.

Phlegmish
Jul 2, 2011



Deteriorata posted:

Another small success on a slow news day:


Trostyanets is south of Sumy.

Very small city, but still nice to see. Really close to the Russian border, too. I wonder if they've made other gains near Kyiv or Kharkiv since then.

Phlegmish
Jul 2, 2011




This seems like a nonsensical thing to do even ignoring Putin's statements about not wanting conscripts

"Surely it will do wonders for our army's morale if we specifically conscript anti-war protesters"

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Phlegmish
Jul 2, 2011



OddObserver posted:

Seems like evidence of forced deportations is mounting:
https://twitter.com/ScottMStedman/status/1507947330992963586

I doubt it's tens of thousands, but the fact that it's happening at all is really hosed up.

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