READ OP! War in Ukraine: a distressed blender making too many margaritas at once

The Something Awful Forums > Archives > Comedy Goldmine > The Goodmine > READ OP! War in Ukraine: a distressed blender making too many margaritas at once

QuoProQuid: Jan 12, 2012; Tr*ckin' and F*ckin' all the way to tha
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https://twitter.com/mrsorokaa/status/1493279960424980481

this is in response to about a dozen MPs (out of 424) who have reportedly left the country. most of these MPs are from the pro-Russian Opposition Platform � For Life.

# ¿ Feb 14, 2022 19:56

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# ¿ May 10, 2024 16:22

QuoProQuid: Jan 12, 2012; Tr*ckin' and F*ckin' all the way to tha
T O P

edit: nm. badly conceived post.

QuoProQuid fucked around with this message at 20:43 on Feb 14, 2022

# ¿ Feb 14, 2022 20:41

QuoProQuid: Jan 12, 2012; Tr*ckin' and F*ckin' all the way to tha
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your "extensive history of invading and attacking russia" is an invasion that happened more than a century ago under a completely different set of circumstances, unless i am misunderstanding? what bearing does this have on the current crisis?

# ¿ Feb 14, 2022 21:21

QuoProQuid: Jan 12, 2012; Tr*ckin' and F*ckin' all the way to tha
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TipTow posted:

If this was true, what was the point of expanding NATO? What did the U.S., France, the U.K., and Turkey gain from adding Latvia, Lithuania, and Estonia? Surely they wouldn't need the extra help in fighting off Russia if that was was never going to happen anyway.

it's actually an interesting question. War on the Rocks has a good retrospective on the Baltics and their path to NATO membership that makes the case that their entry was not something done casually or thoughtlessly. instead, the enlargement was something that was only agreed to after much internal debate and after the baltic states aggressively worked to demonstrate that they could "share the burden" and their democratic reforms wouldn't immediately collapse.

quote:

A recurrent criticism leveled against NATO�s decision to take on the Baltics is that it was done somewhat �casually� or even �emotionally� without judicious processes in place. Others have maintained that it was a feeling of collective historical guilt that drove the West to �rewrite the geopolitical landscape in favor of the Central and Eastern European countries.� While one can indeed find language of moral obligation steeped into speeches of U.S. officials, past tragedies were not the reason why these countries were let into NATO. Above all, they were judged by their ability to implement sound policy reforms and shoulder international military burdens. In short, this was a performance-based process. According to a senior Estonian diplomat, the Baltics quickly realized that the argument �you owe this to us� did not take them far. They learned that the West was �not Catholic but Lutheran. God helps those who help themselves and confession does not really make things better, but behaving differently does.�

The Baltics needed to reinvent themselves, and fast. The state of their armed forces was grim. A retired U.S. military officer noted that at first these nations were at �1 on a 1�10 scale of military capabilities.� Initially, the West had even refused to sell them arms; the United States only lifted the ban in 1994. In order to inject Western-style thinking and doctrine into their military forces, Estonia and Lithuania deliberately appointed retired U.S. Army colonels of Baltic descent to serve as commanders of their defense forces. The Baltics were also eager to send their troops on U.N. missions as well as contribute to costly NATO operations in Iraq and Afghanistan. Estonia, for instance, participated in the Afghanistan mission without any national caveats, suffering one of the highest ratios of deaths-per-capita of any of the allied countries. Involvement in American-led interventions was seen as an effective way to edge closer to NATO membership.

Throughout the membership process, U.S. officials continuously monitored and assessed candidate states� internal governance: health of democratic institutions, transition to market economies, treatment of minorities, and corruption laws. Heather Conley, who served as Deputy Assistant Secretary in the Bureau of European and Eurasian Affairs, recalls visiting the region countless times in one year. She describes the process as highly intrusive, with U.S. officials trying to determine if these democracies are �worth a U.S. soldier�s life.� Defying the odds, the Baltics nurtured their democracies from the ashes in an impressively short time. A former U.S. ambassador to NATO, Kurt Volker, admits that these nations turned out to be �the best democratic and economic reformers, the ones most committed to build fresh new militaries, and the ones willing to support the U.S. in other fora.�

the piece also makes the point that, though russia lobbied hard against entry, its posture was nowhere near aggressive at the time as it is today:

quote:

Today, Russia assertively claims that NATO�s second wave enlargement violated its red lines. It is important to recall, however, that at the time Moscow reacted in a measured way, tempering its criticism vis-�-vis NATO enlargement. In 2001, during a radio interview with National Public Radio, when asked if he opposed the admission of the three Baltic Republics into NATO Russian President Vladimir Putin responded that the issue could not be summed up in �a yes or a no.� He later added that �we cannot forbid people to make certain choices if they want to increase the security of their nations in a particular way.� In another appearance, Putin declared that Baltic membership was �no tragedy� for Russia. These statements clearly were not a ringing endorsement. However, by historical standards, this was the least public resistance put up by the head of the Russian state. Alexander Vershbow, U.S. Ambassador to Moscow at a time of NATO enlargement, insists that he heard few complaints from the Russian side when the Baltics formally joined the alliance.

# ¿ Feb 14, 2022 21:35

QuoProQuid: Jan 12, 2012; Tr*ckin' and F*ckin' all the way to tha
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im not sure i understand the invocations of us military intervention when it's been made abundantly clear that the us and other members of NATO have zero interest in involving themselves in a war with russia over ukraine.

that the arms (and threats of sanctions) have been framed solely as a deterrent, to make a possible invasion appear so costly that russia will delay or step back from an invasion

# ¿ Feb 14, 2022 22:08

QuoProQuid: Jan 12, 2012; Tr*ckin' and F*ckin' all the way to tha
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Conspiratiorist posted:

And the media is ghoulish because that's just what the media does.

You can, however, absolutely criticize government spokesmen for sowing panic by declaring the imminence of a worst case scenario (since even taking for granted Russia will take hostile action there are degrees of magnitude possible), and getting confrontational with the odd media voices that press them to offer more than their word as backing.

my understanding of the US posture here is that it's intended to fit into its larger deterrence campaign and to undercut domestic propaganda if/when it does invade. from the new york times: https://www.nytimes.com/2022/02/12/us/politics/russia-information-putin-biden.html

quote:

In recent weeks, the Biden administration has detailed the movement of Russian special operation forces to Ukraine�s borders, exposed a Russian plan to create a video of a faked atrocity as a pretext for an invasion, outlined Moscow�s war plans, warned that an invasion would result in possibly thousands of deaths and hinted that Russian officers had doubts about Mr. Putin.

Then, on Friday, Jake Sullivan, President Biden�s national security adviser, told reporters at the White House that the United States was seeing signs of Russian escalation and that there was a �credible prospect� of immediate military action. Other officials said the announcement was prompted by new intelligence that signaled an invasion could begin as soon as Wednesday.

All told, the extraordinary series of disclosures � unfolding almost as quickly as information is collected and assessed � has amounted to one of the most aggressive releases of intelligence by the United States since the Cuban missile crisis, current and former officials say.

It is an unusual gambit, in part because Mr. Biden has repeatedly made clear he has no intention of sending U.S. troops to defend Ukraine. In effect, the administration is warning the world of an urgent threat, not to make the case for a war but to try to prevent one.

The hope is that disclosing Mr. Putin�s plans will disrupt them, perhaps delaying an invasion and buying more time for diplomacy, or even giving Mr. Putin a chance to reconsider the political, economic and human costs of an invasion.

At the same time, Biden administration officials said they had a narrower and more realistic goal: They want to make it more difficult for Mr. Putin to justify an invasion with lies, undercutting his standing on the global stage and building support for a tougher response.

Intelligence agencies, prodded by the White House, have declassified information, which in turn has been briefed to Congress, shared with reporters and discussed by Pentagon and State Department spokesmen.

But the disclosures are complicated by history. Before the United States� invasion of Iraq in 2003, the Bush administration released intelligence that officials said justified pre-emptive action, including purported intercepts of Iraqi military conversations, photos of mobile biological weapons labs and statements accusing Baghdad of building a fleet of drones to launch a chemical attack on the United States. The material was all wrong, reliant on sources who lied, incorrect interpretations of Iraq�s actions and senior officials who looked at raw intelligence and saw what they wanted to see.

But this situation, American officials say, is very different. Washington�s claims about Russia�s troop buildup have been confirmed by commercial satellite imagery of a quality previously unavailable. The details of Moscow�s secret disinformation plots are in line with the Kremlin�s propaganda campaigns that play out on social media platforms and have been tracked by independent researchers.

Most important, the officials said, there is a fundamental distinction between Iraq in 2003 and Ukraine in 2022. �In Iraq, intelligence was used and deployed from this very podium to start a war,� Mr. Sullivan said on Friday. �We are trying to stop a war.�

The last time Russia moved against Ukraine, in 2014, intelligence officials blocked the Obama administration from sharing what they knew. But the Biden administration has studied those mistakes. The new disclosures reflect the influence of Avril D. Haines, the director of national intelligence, and William J. Burns, the C.I.A. director, who have shown a willingness to declassify information in an effort to disrupt Russian planning, administration officials said.

�We have learned a lot, especially since 2014, about how Russia uses the information space as part of its overall security and military apparatus,� said Emily J. Horne, the spokeswoman for the National Security Council. �And we have learned a lot about how to deny them some impact in that space."

some skepticism is fair after the events of 2003 (which the article raises) but this is the justification that white house officials are providing and, apparently behind the scenes, substantiating to allies

QuoProQuid fucked around with this message at 22:20 on Feb 14, 2022

# ¿ Feb 14, 2022 22:18

QuoProQuid: Jan 12, 2012; Tr*ckin' and F*ckin' all the way to tha
T O P

Conspiratiorist posted:

Again, there's a difference in trying to provide deterrence through being clear you believe in the possibility of hostile action as well as offering likely timetables for such, and another is consistently sending messaging implying the most likely course of action for Russia is a complete invasion with tens of thousands of casualties and destruction of Ukraine's major urban centers.

That's just loving irresponsible, and without getting into how the messaging is undermined by being sent over the wishes of Ukraine's actual government.

what should the US messaging be if all accounts heavily suggest (and its allies confirm) that the most likely course of action for Russia is, in fact, a full-scale invasion that will kill tens of thousands?

it's definitely a weird case (i can't think of any similar incident where there was this much public forewarning) but im not sure what a better tact would be

QuoProQuid fucked around with this message at 22:35 on Feb 14, 2022

# ¿ Feb 14, 2022 22:33

QuoProQuid: Jan 12, 2012; Tr*ckin' and F*ckin' all the way to tha
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after Ukraine gained independence in 1991, the Associated Press officially dropped the use of �the� to indicate it was a country. for over three decades, the government has had an official policy of requesting that English speakers not use the �the� because it considers the term to imply that ukraine is a territory of a larger power

i would not use it unless your aim is to piss people off

# ¿ Feb 16, 2022 23:23

QuoProQuid: Jan 12, 2012; Tr*ckin' and F*ckin' all the way to tha
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Gumball Gumption posted:

This entire argument is really just an example of how goons are old and are remembering what they learned as a young kid/grade school if English is their first language.

im p sure it's just one guy using it intentionally to stir poo poo and a bunch of people jumping in with variations of the same explanation

but, yeah, goons old

# ¿ Feb 16, 2022 23:37

QuoProQuid: Jan 12, 2012; Tr*ckin' and F*ckin' all the way to tha
T O P

how fortunate that ukrainian soldiers recorded themselves committing an overt act of aggression and they magically dropped the helmet camera with the incriminating footage for enemy forces to find

they've been so desperate to avoid giving russia any reason to invade and now russia has a reason to invade

# ¿ Feb 18, 2022 16:16

QuoProQuid: Jan 12, 2012; Tr*ckin' and F*ckin' all the way to tha
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Biden is taking now after being delayed almost an hour

# ¿ Feb 18, 2022 22:56

QuoProQuid: Jan 12, 2012; Tr*ckin' and F*ckin' all the way to tha
T O P

GaussianCopula posted:

https://twitter.com/YanniKouts/status/1494793779437522949

Yeah, this was pretty remarkable to hear during the statement and caused the press to go into a frenzy.

The press corp pushed for clarification and he reiterated, "As of this moment, I'm convinced he has made the decision."

QuoProQuid fucked around with this message at 23:10 on Feb 18, 2022

# ¿ Feb 18, 2022 23:05

QuoProQuid: Jan 12, 2012; Tr*ckin' and F*ckin' all the way to tha
T O P

there seemed to be audio cuts too, like they were splicing together different takes lmao

# ¿ Feb 21, 2022 15:58

QuoProQuid: Jan 12, 2012; Tr*ckin' and F*ckin' all the way to tha
T O P

have european union leaders expressed their "grave concern" and noted that they are "carefully watching these developments" yet

# ¿ Feb 21, 2022 19:20

QuoProQuid: Jan 12, 2012; Tr*ckin' and F*ckin' all the way to tha
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cinci zoo sniper posted:

Scholz is dismayed.

with any luck, his dismay will be upgraded to urging for caution by all parties and hoping for a diplomatic resolution to the current crisis

# ¿ Feb 21, 2022 19:24

QuoProQuid: Jan 12, 2012; Tr*ckin' and F*ckin' all the way to tha
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listening to putin argue that ukraine is a construct created by lenin and growing increasingly alarmed

# ¿ Feb 21, 2022 19:53

QuoProQuid: Jan 12, 2012; Tr*ckin' and F*ckin' all the way to tha
T O P

i cannot believe that ukraine is both sponsoring radical islam and is on the verge of acquiring weapons of mass destruction

real 2003 iraq vibes

# ¿ Feb 21, 2022 20:14

QuoProQuid: Jan 12, 2012; Tr*ckin' and F*ckin' all the way to tha
T O P

finally got to NATO, which is on the verge of overthrowing russia

# ¿ Feb 21, 2022 20:16

QuoProQuid: Jan 12, 2012; Tr*ckin' and F*ckin' all the way to tha
T O P

now he's complaining about germany being in NATO after reunification

# ¿ Feb 21, 2022 20:22

QuoProQuid: Jan 12, 2012; Tr*ckin' and F*ckin' all the way to tha
T O P

Putin relating a conversation with Bill Clinton ("which I've never discussed before") where he allegedly asked, "Why do you want to make an enemy about us?" and was told "It's not about our political regime. It's that they don't need a big and independent country like Russia."

# ¿ Feb 21, 2022 20:24

QuoProQuid: Jan 12, 2012; Tr*ckin' and F*ckin' all the way to tha
T O P

UKRAINE WILL IMPLEMENT THE BLITZKRIEG

# ¿ Feb 21, 2022 20:33

QuoProQuid: Jan 12, 2012; Tr*ckin' and F*ckin' all the way to tha
T O P

fatherboxx posted:

Stonks looking very good mr President!!!

link for thhis?

# ¿ Feb 21, 2022 20:45

QuoProQuid: Jan 12, 2012; Tr*ckin' and F*ckin' all the way to tha
T O P

i think it's fairly safe to assume the summit with macron and biden is off the table because i have no idea how you negotiate with the man that everyone just saw on screen

# ¿ Feb 21, 2022 21:13

QuoProQuid: Jan 12, 2012; Tr*ckin' and F*ckin' all the way to tha
T O P

at what point do the "russia will/won't invade ukraine" toxxes get triggered?

# ¿ Feb 21, 2022 21:59

QuoProQuid: Jan 12, 2012; Tr*ckin' and F*ckin' all the way to tha
T O P

Vindman has been arguing this for a while and is virtually the only one. Whenever I hear him on a panel, all the other speakers are quick to distance themselves from his desire for extreme aggression and his claims of a new "hot war."

# ¿ Feb 22, 2022 01:01

QuoProQuid: Jan 12, 2012; Tr*ckin' and F*ckin' all the way to tha
T O P

every african nation speaking has come out strongly in support of ukraine and condemned russia's actions

# ¿ Feb 22, 2022 04:09

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# ¿ May 10, 2024 16:22

QuoProQuid: Jan 12, 2012; Tr*ckin' and F*ckin' all the way to tha
T O P

Russia, who is serving as president, saying "I, as the president of the Council, I am obliged to say this: I thank the representative of Ukraine for his statement" got a dark laugh out of me.

# ¿ Feb 22, 2022 04:30

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