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Kikas
Oct 30, 2012

ronya posted:

https://twitter.com/markito0171/status/1497625853160742914

Russia is not blockading the city so civilians can just... steadily leave for the relatively well-supplied western regions; this would be one reason to do so well before a single Russian flag is raised. This seems likely to occur as pedestrian retail supply issues hit the eastern regions. Those most pro-European by family, politics, and economics are most likely to move first, leading to a self-reinforcing political self-selection akin to the DPR/LPR.

This dynamic is a medium-term one and may be completely undone if e.g., the expected assault on the weekend collapses in chaos, or completely routs Kyiv (say). But it's something to consider in terms of the "what happens if this grinds on" forecast. Partition of some kind seems only too plausible.

Well the news in Poland today is that we have already took in 80k in civilians across the border.
We've also seen 20k Ukrainians go back home to fight, their workforce here is massive.

Those numbers will only grow, the goverment expect a milion of migrants, but that is underselling it i think. It's also something that we're be worrying a lot more in the coming weeks - for example, the construction of the Warsaw Metro is halted, as half the workforce left to fight for their homeland, and those that remained refuse to work with the Belarus workers.

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Kikas
Oct 30, 2012

Trump posted:

My theory is that NATO is sharing on a 1:1 ratio, with boots on the ground on a C&C level.

How much NATO are directly interfering is a complete unknown, a little jamming here and there wouldn't surprise me.

For the past 3 days, a RQ-4 Global Hawk has been flying in international airspace around the conflict zone - if that thing has the Gorgon Stare equipped, the Russians have no chance of sneezing without NATO knowing where and how hard.

Kikas
Oct 30, 2012

cinci zoo sniper posted:

I wouldn’t hold my breath about this one. I agree with concerns expressed previously by some posters, that backlash against Russian minorities in other countries may follow. For instance, in Latvia I worry that native Russia speakers will be even further ostracised from having a say in politics, on “national security concerns” grounds.

Oh yeah no those Russians in Latvia and Estonia are hosed. I live in Gdansk in northern Poland and we have regular visitors from Kaliningrad, they come here for shopping. I would hope that they don't come in the weeks to follow or there might be some incidents, we're not exaclty known for our hospitality towards Russians either...

Kikas
Oct 30, 2012

On behalf of the 40 milion of us here in Poland - gently caress him hard.

We equate the Soviet occupation to Nazi occupation because it is equal and maybe even worse in some places. Yes, our nations were close but all those ties were severed clean by the USSR which decided to puppeteer/conquer all of it's neighbours, praying on the fact that we were loving devastated by WWII.

rear end in a top hat.

Kikas
Oct 30, 2012

Hieronymous Alloy posted:

There are going to be two fundamental issues preventing Russia "returning to the fold" over the long term.


The first is that every other European (and by this I mean EU) state is now worrying about an Actual Russian Invasion. It isn't theoretical any more; if he's willing to invade Ukraine, Ukraine has land borders with Hungary and Poland, and we all knew who invaded Poland, right? Plus Hungary and Poland are in the EU and NATO.
So if dude is crazy enough to actually start a war and invade, you have to take that seriously if you live in Europe. Keep in mind that WW2 happened there, like right there, for these countries, it's recent history and not just an academic thing that happened overseas to other people.

The second is that by being this crazy Putin has absolutely torpedoed business investment. The problem there isn't just the sanctions, it's that he nationalized industries and assets in response to the sanctions. A lot of the businesses that have left Russia did so in advance of sanctions; they didn't have to leave, they just wanted to get out because Putin's actions have demonstrated Russia is not a reliable or safe business environment. poo poo, dude confiscated like all the commercial planes in Russia; Russia is never going to have an international airline business again while Putin's government lasts, period.

So on an emotional level the rest of Europe is going to be skittish around Russia for as long as Putin is in power and has a military, and on a practical level business is not going to go back to Russia while Putin is in power because the risk/benefit analysis just changed too much going forward. None of this is returning to normal for Russia any time soon.

Bolded is the important part that still keeps the invasion theorethical. Hell, Russia has a land border with Poland and Lithuania, and they are storing weapons, including possibly nuclear ones, there. They don't need to conquer Ukraine to have direct access to these countries.

And I dunno, while we do see an unprecedented level of solidarity when it comes to sanctions, I do believe that with time, they will also hit people living in EU, putting pressure on companies and governments to do something about it - which might lead to lifting of sanctions. I think that it would be horrible and basically a political suicide for whoever is ruling at the moment, but our govenment has shown tendecies that can be described as such, so I wouldn't be surprised anymore.
However, on the other hand, this is the only government that I view as having the capacity to :sever: connections to Russia precisely out of spite. So it's really a coin toss at this point.

alex314 posted:

I wouldn't count on that. First Polish army would have to either conquer or disable Kaliningrad, while Suwałki are not bombed to ash or conquered by thurst from Belarus..

We could revenge-annex the Kaliningrad Oblast, just gotta give Lithuania a call :v: I'd say it would be only just for 1772

Kikas
Oct 30, 2012

TulliusCicero posted:

Yeah why do people keep trying to re-write recent events to make the Russian military seem way less staggeringly incompetent than they really were/ are?

They tried to "decapitate" Kyiv on the first day and failed miserably. Their stated goal since the beginning was deposing Ukraine's government. Putin said Ukraine was a "Leninist plot" to the whole loving world.

They are just stupid, huffing their own farts, and grossly incompetent. Why is this so hard for some people to grasp? :psyduck:

Because how do you keep controls over such a large country if you're this dumb? :v: Simple as that, I also don't believe that they are stupid or crazy. Just underestimated the enemy and overestimated the morale of their own troops.

Kikas
Oct 30, 2012

Saoshyant posted:

https://twitter.com/MrKovalenko/status/1506468626483879938

How legit this is is anyone's guess, but as Lukashenko seems to have no intention of moving in with Belarus troops while continuing to promise it, it appears the Russian government is looking to replace him.

This is the gut feeling of everyone around - Łukaszenko is too afraid of ordering an invasion of his own. Mostly because the public doesn't want it, he really doesn't want it, and the army really really doesn't want it. The possibility of a coup is high if he decides to push the order, as despite the ties that bind him personally to Putin, the idea of attacking Ukraine is not something that would go down easily in Belarus.
So the feeling is that his head will roll first, then Belarus joins the war. If that happens, I cannot predict the consequences for Europe.

Kikas
Oct 30, 2012

alex314 posted:

If I were someone decently important in Polish government I'd prepare a plan to strap loudspeakers to drones and blast in Russian and Belarussian:
"Belarussian soldiers, that fight is pointless. If you head to Polish border we'll give each of you 5000 EUR, and provide you with EU Visas. We will pay extra for every piece of equipment you take with you. No questions asked, no prison time, you're free to stay in Poland or go to other EU countries. Head to the border, we'll even provide free train ticket and civillian clothes".

They might be skeptical given how we treated the last batch of people trying to cross that particular border :v:

Kikas
Oct 30, 2012

Saoshyant posted:

Reports that white phosphorus has allegedly been used in Hostomel and Irpin (no images/video):

https://twitter.com/KyivIndependent/status/1506618035729276941

If true that is a serious escalation.

No loving way

Kikas
Oct 30, 2012

ShadowHawk posted:

What happens to the body when Ukraine captures a Russian corpse? Are there third-party channels to send the bodies home?

The Geneva conventions require this sort of thing to happen, but is it actually happening in the current war? We've yet to see a report along the lines of "Ukraine has x thousand bodies to send home and needs to know how to deliver them" or similar

"Toss 'em on the pile" I'd wager at this moment. Or just leave them where they are.

Kikas
Oct 30, 2012
https://twitter.com/wolski_jaros/status/1506890559184592897?s=21

Ship identified as a Tapir class, one wrecked, the other one damaged. This guy is a reliable Polish analyst providing a lot of good intel on the war situation, so I trust him on this.
A good hit.

Kikas
Oct 30, 2012

Barrel Cactaur posted:



That is definitely Arma 3, but with some really decent mods. The dead giveaway is the smoke ring at impact and the prefab build tower in the background.

Wow, the clouds, and the fact the smoke from the first impact is moved by the next helicopter passing through it are some seriously impressive work. I remember cloud tech was a selling point for Arma 3, but the dynamic smoke blows me away.

But yeah other than anything, the way the camera moves and zooms is a dead givaway - I can practially hear the scroll wheel in those zooms.

Kikas
Oct 30, 2012

Lock the thread, frame this post, we have found it, the golden core, the alchemist stone, the culmination of all things Something Awful.

The best post on the internet.

Kikas
Oct 30, 2012

Electric Wrigglies posted:

Hind... FOUR O'CLOCK at..... five hundred

BMP.......is......FINISHED

SPETZNATS!

I am still amazed at one point Arma 3 automatic voice callout gave me

UKNNOWN UKNOWN ... AT... UNKNOWN, BEARING... UNKNOWN

Kikas
Oct 30, 2012
I assume they will start training conscripts at the start of April, paralel to gathering supplies and then launch them into battle in May. It is entirely possible they will dig in as hard as they can and wager that Ukrainians will be tired of fighting by May and fresh bodies led by somewhat experienced mercenaries help them win the war.

Kikas
Oct 30, 2012

PC LOAD LETTER posted:

Tanks have a whole lot of mass (40-ish tons for a 'light' tank like what the Russians build, 60-70-ish tons for a Abrams) and heating it up enough to be an issue with a soda bottle sized molotov or 3 isn't happening.

I'm not a expert on molotovs' effectiveness on modern tanks but from what I understand its very difficult to knock out a post WWII tank with them. The tank designers are well aware of what a molotov is and how to engineer things such they're less susceptible to them for a long time now.

More specifically they build them to be water tight (so burning fuel won't leak into the crew area when its closed up), rubber isn't a integral part of the tracks anymore like on those real old tanks (its there but for ride comfort and so you don't trash the roads, burning it off won't throw the track of the tank anymore), and they designed the exhaust ports such that burning fluids won't pour into them anymore.

There is other stuff of course but that is the major stuff to make them highly resistant to molotovs.

I'm not saying you can't possibly ever do it....just that its going to be very difficult and you'll probably die just trying to get close enough to pull it off.

Most of the successful molotov attacks you hear about now are when someone threw the molotov into a open hatch or something. THAT will absolutely work...but its hard to pull off. I know in some circumstances people were able essentially 'blind' the tank by throwing a bunch of molotovs at it (set the whole outside of it on fire so the tankers inside couldn't see) and then had someone toss a IED at it to destroy the tank.

So again, they're not totally useless, but they're nowhere near as effective as they used to be and are highly risky to use too.

This.

Especially if you can get the US to give you them for free.

An engine still needs air. If you provide it with hot air, or fire in that place, it will not be able to work as well and you can stall out the engine. It's not easy and you need to know where to aim, but it's doable.
Once it's stalled, apply rocket liberally.


Deteriorata posted:

Another dawn is breaking in Kyiv, and it's still Ukrainian. :unsmith:

:ukraine:

Every drat morning I look forward to seeing this posted more and more. Slava Ukraini!

Kikas
Oct 30, 2012

Somaen posted:

A lot of these soldiers are coming from shithole villages in Siberia and the Urals. Someone living in Buryatiya or Kuzbass without gas, water from a well and a toilet being a hole in the ground, will have a much worse quality of life than a burgher from a Ukrainian city

Yeah the Russian Federation pretty much stops at Moscow. Once you go further East, there is only Russia. The country is very unevenly deployed. The claim about asphalt is far fetched, but street lights is a very real possibility.
I mean some of those things would be true with parts of Poland :v:

Kikas
Oct 30, 2012
Edit: I'm a dumbass please ignore.

Kikas
Oct 30, 2012
Or they did, but didn't realize that the forest is also contaminated. Or how bad is it in the woods.
I didn't.

Kikas
Oct 30, 2012

Alchenar posted:

Oof, there's going to be some hard economic choices about what gets rebuilt. Also if you are rebuilding the factories and tooling from scratch then there is the option to dump legacy platforms and fully modernise. Guilt the Germans into giving you the right to set up a Leopard 2 factory and build as many Ukr variants as you want etc etc.

Bro given that basic car mechanics are now making ballistic shields and improvised tanks from scrap, I think the industry will recover very fast.

Kikas
Oct 30, 2012

gay picnic defence posted:

Flying a bomber like that into contested airspace and over potentially MANPADS infested territory sounds like an extremely dumb idea. Dumber considering the accuracy with that thing is probably pretty poo poo so you might not even hit anything of military value.

That bomb looks old enough that it's debatable whether the explosive in it still works too.

If it does, that thing would do serious damage tho, no need for precision. That poo poo is an old blast bomb, no fancy tricks, just 1200kg of TNT on board. It's gonna do serious infrastructure damage if they manage to hit anything. I'd wager that at 3 tons you can chuck that thing pretty accurately too, although I wouldn't want to zoom and boom with one of those things attached.

Kikas
Oct 30, 2012

organburner posted:

I can't quite see that symbol by 552 properly, what does it mean?

Total votes cast from adding it all up.

Kikas
Oct 30, 2012

Honj Steak posted:

I just saw some planes flying in tight circles over a nearby military base in Southern Germany, however, Flightradar didn’t show anything. Are military planes allowed to hide their position and is it unusual if they do it?

Around 70% are hidden at all times, be it training or actual deployment. So don't worry too much.
Flightradar only uses a public transponder btw, the actual transponders that allow towers and flight radars to track their planes are a different device, in case of the military, an encrypted one.

Kikas
Oct 30, 2012

mmkay posted:

I don't know about the Baltics constitutions, but the Polish president has basically no power, most of the executive powers are in the PM, who already visited with Czech and Slovene PMs (and the actual real guy with power in Poland - Kaczynski) back when things were more dicey.

The President is still the Overseer of the Armed Forces, meaning he can command the army directly.

Orthanc6 posted:

Geolocated this vid to this spot, based on the distinct signal house by the tracks:

https://www.google.ca/maps/place/Gn...7.5826575?hl=en

Following that rail line it looks like these can only be going north, towards the Baltics. So guessing it's for a US unit headed to reinforce them.

Eh, not quite, there are a lot of switches and crossings that the simplified rail map won't show you. It is entirely possible that this could go through the cargo tracks around Warsaw and once you're there, you can deliver stuff anywhere in Poland. The eastern side of our country is very spotty when it comes to railways (thanks, Russian Annexation) but even then we have 2 railway crossings on the border with Ukraine, one line directly to Kiev and the other one to Lviv.
It just might take some time to go around :v:

Also jeez, stop taking pictures of supplies you dipshits :argh:

Kikas
Oct 30, 2012
I mean this was a valid state when half of West Europe was so tightly in the USSR sphere of influence that "pissing off Russia" was an existential threat to them. Some people who grew to adulthood in those times would be in their 50s, a prime age to become a politician with massive brainworms :v:

Kikas
Oct 30, 2012

fatherboxx posted:

https://twitter.com/hergravce/status/1514886706058641413?t=zfXOi_hCfnFMI0Dtz-EWGQ&s=19

Arranging for a small fleet of construction vehicles to do "would be a shame if something happened to it" to a memorial, very normal behaviour

loving DO IT YOU COWARDS

Go on, piss on the one thing commemorating the atrocities you fuckers tried to sweep under the rug, the effects of which we still feel in the polish politics today. Also the visit there was the reason for the Smolensk flight, come on, piss off the Polish people more.

Oh and while you're there, please document the whole thing and broadcast it to the whole world. Amazing.

Kikas
Oct 30, 2012

fatherboxx posted:

https://twitter.com/hergravce/status/1514886706058641413?t=zfXOi_hCfnFMI0Dtz-EWGQ&s=19

Arranging for a small fleet of construction vehicles to do "would be a shame if something happened to it" to a memorial, very normal behaviour

alex314 posted:

It's not that dumb of an idea from Kremlin side: there's a ton of Red Army memorials in Poland, so they count on some retaliatory action that would feed into internal propaganda. "We had 600.000 of our brave troops die liberating them, and now they desecrate their memory!"
I've lost some sanity checking loving tvp.info site, but it doesn't look like those fuckwits picked it up.

After some further digging, this apprently is in response to "demolishing of soviet monuments in Poland":

https://twitter.com/TadeuszGiczan/status/1514894841309708295?t=P5S55FX0Svd5nu80GocNhQ&s=19

"Resolve the Katyn issue once and for all." ah so we're back to "final solution" I see.

Kikas
Oct 30, 2012

Kith posted:

i've been playing catchup since i've been incapacitated for the past few days and

did the ukrainian forces seriously jebait an entire loving warship

No no no.
It's been promoted to a submarine.
A leaky one :v:

Kikas
Oct 30, 2012

Owling Howl posted:

Certainly it's understandable if Poland is a bit ambivalent. Nazi Germany no doubt killed many more Poles than the USSR but the USSR collaborating with the nazis to carve up Poland makes them al least complicit. Nazi Germany was there for 4 years 80 years ago while the USSR oppressed them for almost half a century up until 30 years ago.

Nah, the Soviets were as bad during WW2 as the Nazis, this is a well known fact. In fact they were about as bad as they are now in Ukraine, especially for the smaller villages (and especially the pretty village girls).
The bodycount is also debatable, given relocations and removals of anti-state voices during the USSR days. The Katyn memorial is a memorial to a exectuion of over 21000 Polish citizens, half of which were military officers, by NKWD. In 1940.

That was literally just the beginning. Hell, they tried to pin it on the Nazis and Germany did play a big role in uncovering the truth (not all of which is uncovered still).

So them threatening to destroy it is just another part of mudding the waters around the brain drain of our military and political elite, which they've been doing for the last 3080 years.

Kikas
Oct 30, 2012

Postorder Trollet89 posted:

3 million poles were murdered by the nazis in a 5 year period alongside 20 million russians in about 3 years. There is no comparison. I know it's in style to bash Russia in this thread but let's not relativize the holocaust please.

Yeah okay I flew off the handle a bit. Like alex said above, the impact of that specific genocide is bigger than it's numbers.

Kikas
Oct 30, 2012

BUT I AM ALREADY SAVED, FOR THE MACHINE IS ETERNAL

Kikas
Oct 30, 2012

Hack around and find out, :drat:

Kikas
Oct 30, 2012

Rust Martialis posted:

How long will it take to capture Warsaw? 2 days
Will Duda be killed? Yes
Total Polish civillian casualties: 500 dead
Total military casualties Poland: 3000 dead
Total military casualties Russia: 15 dead
Will the Polish army regulars hold the lines? No
Will the Winged Hussars fight to the end? No
Will chem/bio weapons be used on invading troops?: Yes
Will Duda launch attacks on Belorussia? Yes
Will Duda launch attacks on Chechnya? No
-If yes; will Kadryov retaliate harshly? Lol
Will Duda sacrifice Lviv (gas/nuke it)? No
Will the Belorussians make a grab for eastern Poland? Yes
Will Putin slap Luka silly for trying for land? Yes
Will Duda burn the sunflower fields? Yes
How long will Russia be occupying Poland? Forever, blin. Fourth Rome!
Will the war catalyze increased terrorism in Chechnya? No
In the long run, will this war be good or bad for the world? Blyat

Oh my God I am howling *chef's kiss*

Poland is more interested in scaring the refugees shitless by sounding our air raid sirens in remembrance of the Warsaw Ghetto uprising (and the Smolensk crash) than attacking Belarus tho.

Kikas
Oct 30, 2012

Phlegmish posted:

Wait, what the hell? Is this real? I totally missed the build-up to these statements. Is there any reason for Belarus to expect an attack from these three countries?

I can tell you that this is absolute bullshit from the side of Poland, we never talked about attacking anyone aside from clamoring on Article 5 of NATO, which still wouldn't be a threat to Belarus.


Ukrainian artillery explosion as seen by the camera of a Russian soldier next to Izyum. One of the last things the camera and the guy ever saw.
code:
https://twitter.com/AS7404542949/status/1516131840788398081
Huh, :nms: doesn't remove embed links for me, weird.

Kikas
Oct 30, 2012

mmkay posted:

Different graphic, but similar idea:

it isn't the same without my main man in the red

Kikas
Oct 30, 2012

cinci zoo sniper posted:

:nws: Protest against sexual violence in the war, in front of Embassy of Russia in Riga – similar to Estonian and Lithuanian protests earlier.

https://www.lsm.lv/raksts/zinas/lat...kraina.a453029/

Huh, apparently there was one in front of the Russian Embasy in Gdańsk as well. How nice to see solidarity.

Kikas
Oct 30, 2012

KitConstantine posted:

This is interesting - thread that goes into detail on how Russia is getting hacked left and right at the moment. It's way more than has even been reported
https://twitter.com/micahflee/status/1516521193808875527?s=20&t=ixnN_diICiuUcU8sNEE7Hg
Threadreader bc it's long and full of links: https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1516521193808875527.html

And the site the thread is discussing https://ddosecrets.com/wiki/Distributed_Denial_of_Secrets

One of the most recent leaks is from the General Dept. of Troops and Civil Construction, which I find intruging for some reason. Probably due to my newly discovered fascination with logistics.

If anyone speaks Russian have a peek.

Yeah I've talked to a few buddies in cybersec and they said that whille Russia has the capabilities and a silent (or loud) government approval for hacking, they don't have any infrastructure for defense. It was just that noone cared enough to hack them before. Now with the war in full swing there is a lot you can cause with hacking, taking TV offline, changing offcial messages, maybe leak as much data as possible and see if anything is of any use etc.

A textbook definition of "glass cannon".

Kikas
Oct 30, 2012

Somaen posted:

https://twitter.com/CurrentTimeTv/status/1517043131983835137

Putin declares the storming of Azovstal pointless and orders a siege instead

This is remarkable because he is definitely the one looking at maps and giving orders on what to attack

Ties in nicely with people saying for years he doesn't give a poo poo about boring stuff like infrastructure, bad roads and logistics. He wants to point at a map and get victories and pretty border and to go down in history

We are in 2022. All of Mariopol is occupied by the Russians. All? No! Because a steel mill populated by irreducable Ukrainians still resists the invaders!


...and life will not be easy for Russian garrisons stationed around Azovstal, I bet. I hope they manage to evacuate as many people as possible.

Kikas
Oct 30, 2012

cinci zoo sniper posted:

Daily war goals update: “they never liked Russia” :qq:
https://twitter.com/samramani2/status/1517433460125749250


The gall to say any of that, I spit on that guy

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Kikas
Oct 30, 2012

Honj Steak posted:

Bundestag just approved delivery of heavy weapons with an overwhelming majority, only Linkspartei and AfD voted against.

Will they this time ship more ammo than 20 minutes of sustained fire? :v:

Kidding, that's great!

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