READ OP! War in Ukraine: a distressed blender making too many margaritas at once

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Sekenr: Dec 12, 2013

They coyld have voted for DLNR recognition at any moment, you don't need a troop buildup to do that. The problem of such recognition is it means that Russia officially invalidates Minsk agreements and trying to force Kiev to follow these agreements was their entire policy since 2014.

# ¿ Feb 15, 2022 13:17

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# ¿ May 10, 2024 07:10

Sekenr: Dec 12, 2013

Kavros posted:

...

I really do want to know at what point Russia figured it didn't even need to make much of an effort at this, or at least do enough to make it look like less of a bad comic book movie B-plot when they play at false flag

Well, it was kinda hilarious to Putin at least. "Haha, made you ... holds his stomach for laughter ... all go to my ridiculous table *wailing from laughter* while I was just joking!"

But honestly what did he gain from any of this other than a few laughs and make Russia hated even more

# ¿ Feb 15, 2022 21:01

Sekenr: Dec 12, 2013

Numlock posted:

Bullying Ukrane back into the fold is the best he can do.

Outside of that this just proves to everyone why you want to be in NATO and in the EU block which is extremely counter productive for them. Real "hurt myself to own the West" energy.

Yeah, it kind of wrecks Ukraine, which is all Putin wanted. Imo the best thing the US and EU can do now is keep remilitarising Ukraine and offer a beyter deal of some sort on something

# ¿ Feb 15, 2022 21:22

Sekenr: Dec 12, 2013

Cugel the Clever posted:

He inflicted a degree of economic harm on Ukraine as capital investments slowed (where it didn't flee outright) in anticipation of a major conflict. This will likely be short-term and Putin backing down may prove outright beneficial in the longer-term as it suggests he might lack the resolve and capacity to actually follow through with his threats.

Good thread:
https://twitter.com/BretDevereaux/status/1493612035963301897?t=AFMN0y32W109tYVVZVOabg&s=19
If the withdrawal actually happens, Western leaders absolutely should take an overt victory lap. The West held strong against an autocrat's belligerent threats and shored up a fledgling democracy on its periphery. And if the intent to invade was actually there, this wasn't just a matter of calling a bluff, but deterrence, showcasing just how far Putin has led Russia away from its former superpower status.

I agree. It should be proclaimed as victory and something should be done if symbolically to show that Ukraine is still welcome or some poo poo.

# ¿ Feb 15, 2022 21:42

Sekenr: Dec 12, 2013

Majorian posted:

Personally, he's going to make billions from the MIC, and the Russian media will spin it as a victory against NATO. The whole episode has successfully distracted his audience from his disastrous handling of COVID, and his approval among voters and oligarchs alike will increase. In the meantime, Ukraine will never be allowed to join NATO now (it wasn't going to be able to join anyway, but this further solidifies it), and I'd be shocked if France and Germany allowed any other country to join for the foreseeable future. He's also demonstrated to Ukraine that he can make their lives miserable without even invading. This was a big win for Putin.

Not seeing it as a "big win" for Putin, antagonized everyone even more, Russia's domestic market freaked out, foreign investors pulled out. The west managed a collective response against many doubts. Now its very clear that NATO should be an anti-Russian alliance again because this poo poo sucks.

As for Russian domestic situation this is going to be like mini Crimea. After all the emotions calm down everyone will realize that life is even worse now and nothing was gained.

Majorian posted:

That's realpolitik for you. Unless you can think of a way to keep them from asking for more concessions down the road?

Sure. Just don't give them any in the first place?

Sekenr fucked around with this message at 07:25 on Feb 16, 2022

# ¿ Feb 16, 2022 07:21

Sekenr: Dec 12, 2013

Majorian posted:

Putin's approval rating actually stayed high after Crimea for several years - they only began to collapse with pension reform and raising the retirement age in 2018. As of this month, they've bounced back thanks in part to the Ukraine situation., and they'll probably only improve over the coming months. It won't last forever, but political goodwill rarely does.

Okay, then get used to things like this continuing to happen, I guess?

Sure, but Crimea was a tangible win of sorts. Russia gained exactly that - Crimea. Right now they gained a whole lot of nothing, unless you count non-NATO Ukraine but they were never going to be admitted until Crimea and LDNR situations are resolved and these don't require any of this noise just keep the status quo. There is nothing about it for Russians to be happy about.

quote:

Okay, then get used to things like that continuing to happen, I guess?

Why would he stop doing things like that if they get him concessions? He'll only stop if these shenanigans gain him nothing

# ¿ Feb 16, 2022 08:32

Sekenr: Dec 12, 2013

Majorian posted:

This is one of those things where there doesn't necessarily have to be material gain for Russians to be happy about it. Revanchism is a helluva drug. Believing that they can once again stand toe-to-toe with the U.S. and NATO, who they (quite fairly) blame for humiliating and immiserating their country in the 90s, is a victory. You know how Trump hasn't brought his constituency very much in terms of actual material gains, and yet they love him because he owns/terrifies the libs? It's kind of like that, except Putin has also improved the overall Russian standard of living from when he took office (although that's obviously a low bar to clear).

That's not really the lesson of history, though. Russia largely played by the rules throughout the 90s and early 00s. They let 1/3 of their empire break away without much of a fuss, allowed the IMF and World Bank to restructure their economy, engaged in the arms control regime in good faith, and even tried to join NATO. What did they get out of it? Economic collapse, a plummeting life expectancy, military embarrassments left and right, and a sad alcoholic clown presiding over it all, with the U.S.' not-terribly-subtle backing. When Putin came to power, he tried to get arms control back on track, offered his full support for Bush's War on Terror, and generally tried to create an image of Russia as the eastern bookend of European civilization (insert famous Gandhi quote about European civilization here). What did Russia get for these efforts? Brushed aside, while Bush embarked on his insane wars of conquest with only the lightest chastisement from the international community.

So since then, Russia has engaged in a more assertive mode of geopolitics. So far it has worked out pretty well for them - much better than the previous strategy, at the very least. That doesn't mean that the rest of the world should roll over and show its belly whenever Putin threatens another country. What it does mean is that a strategy of containing a Russia that is an energy-exporting superpower is ultimately doomed to fail. We cannot engage them militarily, and we cannot contain them. So that leaves us with diplomacy, and that means trading concessions so that all sides can save face as best they can. It may or may not succeed at stopping episodes like this from popping up in the future - we can't know the outcome for certain. But we do know that it's really the only way forward that has any hope of succeeding. The "gently caress you, you're a defeated enemy, you get nothing" strategy is what got us here in the first place.

I am talking about public perception. What of any of this did Russia win or the West/Ukraine lose for revanchists to be happy about? Compared to the amount of noise this situation made you've got to have something to show to the public. My google news app shows me almost exclusively russian news and I am not seeing any elation over victory, mostly relief over no war, some - in fact annoyance at Putin, a number of people who thought themselves important feel fooled, one piece weirdly enough declared that Russia got screwed over by the west.

As for "successes" of Russia's recent politics, what are they? They gained a bunch of sanctions, dropped the rouble and made a bunch of enemies including among former friends and in return what? Crimea which is another burden on Russia's budget and a bunch of split away regions which while preclude their countries from joining nato, still don't stop them from direct treaties with USA or whoever feels like it. If the goal was control over former USSR republics they got the opposite.

# ¿ Feb 16, 2022 11:00

Sekenr: Dec 12, 2013

Generation Internet posted:

I don't know if the Daily Beast is a reputable source, but one of their correspondents is saying that Wagner mercenaries who have regularly been killing civilians in Central African Republic are being withdrawn from that country.

https://twitter.com/PhilipObaji/status/1493984585989902342

From what i heard Its the opposite. Veterans refuse to get involved with this poo poo

# ¿ Feb 16, 2022 20:39

Sekenr: Dec 12, 2013

DandyLion posted:

Putin knows he can just roll in and take Ukraine and except for the token opposition Ukraine can put up nobody else is going to do anything substantial enough to tax Putin/Russia more so than they already are doing.

Honeztly not sure where that comes from. Modern russia never done anything on that scale before and Ukraine has 250k army with combat experience.

# ¿ Feb 17, 2022 20:03

Sekenr: Dec 12, 2013

Tuna-Fish posted:

Russia has a huge air force and Ukraine has little capacity to do more than harass it after about a day of SEAD work.

The largest question about this whole thing is "just how good is the VVS at CAS"? If they are even halfway competent, this will go very bad very quickly for the Ukrainians. On one hand, they really haven't done particularly well in Syria. On the other, it didn't really look like they were trying that hard.

The one kind of military aid that would absolutely flip the strategic calculus is substantial quantity of effective AA. The sad part is that that's the one thing that the west doesn't really have to give. Most western armies have been built under the assumption that they will always hold air superiority (which was not a bad assumption for most of the cold war), and so investment into land-based AA outside of navies has been kind of an afterthought.

What I am saying its not a walk to Kiev like some think with very unclear goals too which is not a help to Russian military, who will also be blamed when corpses come back home. Under a KGB man starting the biggest war Russia has seen since Afghanistan.

Even bigger considering the forces involved

# ¿ Feb 17, 2022 21:20

Sekenr: Dec 12, 2013

Fabulous Knight posted:

My "favorite" part from Putin's essay from last summer was the one where he said that Ukraine becoming and being independent and being recognized as such was equivalent to using nuclear weapons against Russia, since separating Ukrainians from Russians as an ethnic entity dramatically reduces the number of Russians in the world.

If he only cared as much for actual russian russians. Russian Federation lost a fucken million people previous year. And thats deaths over births statistic.

# ¿ Feb 17, 2022 21:51

Sekenr: Dec 12, 2013

No, this int about more wealth. Its about cronies unable to access their castles due to sanctions. They paid millions and cant access the property. Second is Putin loves to be a chessmaster, its a meme how he hates to deal with Rusdian internal isdues such as rabid dogs attacking a child or even grown man (a real thing that ru internal news talk a lot about) but is giddy moving pieces around the map

# ¿ Feb 17, 2022 22:03

Sekenr: Dec 12, 2013

Majorian posted:

We've been trying that strategy towards Russia for the past thirty-odd years. Not only has it not worked; it has led us directly to where we find ourselves today. The reality is, the U.S. engaging in a neoconservative foreign policy, trying to expand NATO up to Russia's borders on multiple fronts, withdrawing from multiple arms control treaties, and placing ABMs in former Warsaw Pact states are what play into Putin's hands. He benefits politically (and financially) when we behave like the bogeyman that he paints us as.

And there isn't the political will among NATO member-states to make him pay dearly for his actions anyway. If we tell him to go pound sand, he'll come back and do this again next year, and the year after that. He can do this a lot longer than we can.

Lol what are you talking about? Here is bunch of statements that make no sense and are based on what? How does Putin benefit from any of this? Why can he do it a lot longer than you can? Because you are kinda tired or ..? What is this nonsense.

Of course he will try it again, military posturung is the only remaining move he's got exactly because the policy of containment was so effective. Its a desparate move and unpopular internally.

Aquiescing to Putin means he gets his concessions and will be back for more. Not aquiescing means he walks away without concessions. But he will be back to screw with the west and/or neighbours either way for as long as he is in power. Get used to it.

# ¿ Feb 18, 2022 07:18

Sekenr: Dec 12, 2013

Even the US official position is that Hawaii is out of NATO bounds but protected by some other treaties.

# ¿ Feb 18, 2022 09:46

Sekenr: Dec 12, 2013

Rad Russian posted:

I'll agree that's it's not enough to occupy long term. It's more than enough to invade with "modern" (sorta) hardware and force the gov't to fall. What are partisans going to do against tanks and jets? You blitz to Kiev and threaten its destruction, force gov't to surrender and go into exile, install a new puppet gov't. Can be done in 2-3 days when you have complete air superiority.

And than what? The puppet will be kicked out the second that Russians leave. So you either need occupation or you accomplished nothing.

# ¿ Feb 21, 2022 06:24

Sekenr: Dec 12, 2013

There was a funny joke in russian twitter a faw weeks ago when putins administration supported the paralympics team. A lot of people thanked Putin for for so many new members expected to join soon

# ¿ Feb 22, 2022 20:49

Sekenr: Dec 12, 2013

Other than looming threat of war, Zelensky already got everything he could hope for. Minsk 2 is cancelled, as well as NS2. As a bonus doesnt have to worry about how to reintegrate LDNR for the foreseeable future.

# ¿ Feb 23, 2022 19:11

Sekenr: Dec 12, 2013

My GFs brother was going to visit us from Kiev tonight. His flight was today, if he literally booked one day earlier he would be safe and sound. Thankfully he already is kinda experienced in escapes (pulled of super quick escape from Belarus earlier) and already on his way to Ternopyl.

# ¿ Feb 24, 2022 07:50

Sekenr: Dec 12, 2013

My personal opinion is that Putin's final slide into what he is now coincided with the last 2 covid years in the bunker. Either the relative isolation taken a toll on man's mind or Kremlin court intrigue used the opportunity to remove some of his more sane advisors.

Also I predicted a faw weeks ago how the olygarch tower of the kremlin will suddenly realize now that maybe a KGB man running the Russia sucks, and treating international relations as a clandestine games to stick it to the west might be disastrously counterproductive.

# ¿ Feb 24, 2022 20:58

Sekenr: Dec 12, 2013

Lmao while EU and US dares not disrupt oil trade with Russia, fucken China temporarily suspends buying

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-02-25/china-pausing-on-buying-russian-seaborne-crude-after-invasion

# ¿ Feb 25, 2022 11:46

Sekenr: Dec 12, 2013

Baronash posted:

In all seriousness though, do you really think that England, France, or the US would consider an invasion of Estonia an "existential threat" to themselves? That a US president and US citizens would weather nuclear bombings as the unavoidable cost of defending freedom in Latvia? Sure, the US is sending troops there now as a show of force, but do you truly feel we would do the same if the build-up we saw in advance of this war was occurring on the borders of a NATO country?

Bsically you screw over one member and the rest are gonna start to doubt if they are next and soon the alliance doesnt exist anymore.

# ¿ Feb 25, 2022 15:41

Sekenr: Dec 12, 2013

One Russian MP (KPRF) tweeted against the war
https://twitter.com/tweet_matveev/status/1497393053035810817?s=20&t=xLyOqFw32Rir377LSbHiPg

Doesnt seem like a super good guy, senses the winds changing?

# ¿ Feb 26, 2022 05:26

Sekenr: Dec 12, 2013

Russia banned from Eurovision. Volkswagen stopped supplying Russian dealers with cars. That includes audi, skoda, bentley, lamborghini and ducati.

# ¿ Feb 26, 2022 06:13

Sekenr: Dec 12, 2013

Majorian posted:

Derek Davison, on his "American Prestige" podcast, brought up the fact that Putin has heavily isolated himself during the pandemic, and suggested it's possible that this changed his personality for the worse.

This is exactly what I posted who knows how many pages back.

# ¿ Feb 26, 2022 06:27

Sekenr: Dec 12, 2013

KitConstantine posted:

Japanese news sources now reporting on the ship that was hit by a missile. Japan still hasn't committed to sanctions yet, I wonder if this will give them a push?

https://twitter.com/spectatorindex/status/1497449393850839042?t=-RDst4urwiRdS4AaRHkgoA&s=19

Articles in Japan Times and Kyodo News.

Japan sanctioned RU immediately after recognizing LDNR, but ueah, no specific anti war sanctions yet.

# ¿ Feb 26, 2022 07:08

Sekenr: Dec 12, 2013

Small White Dragon posted:

So what is Belarus's role, if any, in this?

I might be wrong, but I would guess the US response to an attack on Taiwan would be much more... active.

loving Lukashenko is providing airbases, railroads, ground support and access through the border also shortest trek to Kiev compared to other UA borders. The worst part for me is that the loving scum made us all accomplices to this crime, Ukranians wont't soon forgive us, if ever. If our involvement will be critical for the russia taking Kiev there will be no end to my grief.

# ¿ Feb 26, 2022 07:45

Sekenr: Dec 12, 2013

Roskomnadzor issued a warning to several independant ish Russian media demanding to take down "false info" they posted. Specifically

They used words "war" and "invasion" instead of Special operation or whatever Russians are calling it.

Posted pieces about killed civilians and civilian buildings shelled, which obviously cannot be true.

# ¿ Feb 26, 2022 10:51

Sekenr: Dec 12, 2013

I'm pretty sure Russians being chill with civilians is due to Russian own propaganda. Their public stance is that all the resistance they encounter are nazi batallions while everybody else are happy to see them and just waiting for a chance to surrender. So when someone approaches them without throwing zig heils and speaks russian, their brains probably seitch to "not an enemy" mode.

# ¿ Feb 26, 2022 13:08

Sekenr: Dec 12, 2013

I read up a bit on ban airplane exports part of EU sanctions and its a pretty big deal. 39 % of Russian civil airliners are Airbus. Sanction makes them unusable due to either canelled lease contracts or lack of spare parts which are also banned. If the US doesn't suck and supports this they will lose ANOTHER 36 % which are Boeing. In a month they will have almost no civil aviation.

# ¿ Feb 26, 2022 13:36

Sekenr: Dec 12, 2013

pippy posted:

https://twitter.com/KyivIndependent/status/1497553380616683527
Is this significant?

Probably want to cut foreign supplies to Ukraine by sea

# ¿ Feb 26, 2022 14:03

Sekenr: Dec 12, 2013

My GF's brother was able to reach Poland after a day at the border. Ukraine border guards were furious when they saw a Belarusian passport, threatened to shoot them, threatened to send them to Belarusian border to get killed by their own. Ultimately had to bribe them to be allowed into Poland in peace.

E: Kadyrov video is so unexpected I am suspecting neural net or such

# ¿ Feb 26, 2022 21:05

Sekenr: Dec 12, 2013

Apparently Macron called Lukashenko for some reason. At least BY news says so. Maybe trying to get him to reduce support for the war or something.

# ¿ Feb 26, 2022 21:52

Sekenr: Dec 12, 2013

Pook Good Mook posted:

Maybe to let him know that the West is talking about including Belarus in sanctions

Its already included. My BY mastercard cards stopped working today which is weird because Visa still works and bank canctions were american in origin.

# ¿ Feb 26, 2022 22:08

Sekenr: Dec 12, 2013

You are all making too much of nukes in Belarus angle. The new constitution among many other changes removes articles about non nuclear and internationally neutral status. Noone offerred us nukes and russia has no need to. Other than nuclear subs if they want to put them really close to EU they have Kaliningrad.

# ¿ Feb 27, 2022 12:03

Sekenr: Dec 12, 2013

For some reason Roman Abramovich takes part in peace negotiations https://news.sky.com/story/roman-abramovich-chelsea-owner-trying-to-find-peaceful-resolution-to-ukraine-invasion-spokesman-says-12553990

# ¿ Feb 28, 2022 13:48

Sekenr: Dec 12, 2013

nurmie posted:

it's a valiant deepl attempt at translating this passage: Поэтому некоторым перевозбужденным российским экспертам о своих шапкозакидательских фантазиях лучше всего забыть

i cant actually think of a good way to translate it, it's somewhere between "warmongering", "blissful" and "masturbatory"

No, it means easy win. Like the enemy is so weak we'll defeat them by throwing hats at them.

# ¿ Feb 28, 2022 16:27

Sekenr: Dec 12, 2013

BigRed0427 posted:

Wait, this is a thing that happens?

Zerkalo.by even made a tally of how many times it was promised, there was at least a dozen from various senior officials such as embassador to the UN and Lavrov himself, they never promised there won't be a special operation though!

E: oh I got it. Yes, at least in Belarus they were selling various crap to buy vodka

# ¿ Feb 28, 2022 20:56

Sekenr: Dec 12, 2013

Tiny Timbs posted:

It shouldn’t feel frustrating and gross that people are not eager to engage with anyone repeatedly attempting to bring up the suffering of the Russian people in the thread about Russia invading and slaughtering Ukrainians

Imagine a Hollywood billboard lit up with the words “read the loving room”

There is new problem here which isnt sanctions. Its the situation of Russian and Belarusian dissidents. They get double hosed, first by their state for protesting and than berated by everybody else for not protesting enough. I saw comments back in Belarus along the lines of "yeah, I'll go, get beaten and go to jail and than Ukranians will tell me to go gently caress myself because thats just isnt enough".

Sure I get where its coming from with Ukranians getting literally killed, but this attitude is utterly demoralizing and discouraging to protest.

# ¿ Mar 1, 2022 06:08

Sekenr: Dec 12, 2013

Sir John Falstaff posted:

I've seen this posted several times, but is that really a prevailing attitude anywhere? I'm not sure I've ever seen someone say "you personally are not protesting enough" to someone who is protesting.

I'm sure people who are protesting will get hosed by the sanctions like anyone else, but that's because sanctions are a blunt instrument that affect everyone.

Sadly it is true. A bunch of my Belarusian friends who are in contact with their Ukranian (former?) buddies, get a lot of "thats not enough"

# ¿ Mar 1, 2022 06:29

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# ¿ May 10, 2024 07:10

Sekenr: Dec 12, 2013

Zat posted:

https://twitter.com/Reuters/status/1498581374562877445
I want to believe.

I read the original statement and I think his wording was kinda aimed at Putin "this wasnt our deal" kind of thing.

# ¿ Mar 1, 2022 10:10

The Something Awful Forums > Archives > Comedy Goldmine > The Goodmine > READ OP! War in Ukraine: a distressed blender making too many margaritas at once

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