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Flavahbeast
Jul 21, 2001


Both countries have a big problem with fascist ideology but neither one is really dominated by it. I don't think Zelensky is a Nazi



I can tell you what would make things worse for them, though: a bloody war. Iran didn't go full psycho mode and start mass executions of communists until the Iran-Iraq war. A Russian invasion could make for extremely bad times in both Russia and Ukraine

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Flavahbeast
Jul 21, 2001


orcane posted:

Russian military directly invaded and stopped the Ukrainian advance that was about to significantly pushing back the Russian-backed mobsters in the summer of 2014. There's nothing home grown about the "separatists" in Donbas.

Igor Girkin married into a Ukrainian family so he's basically a native

Flavahbeast
Jul 21, 2001


Dante80 posted:

It is not really complicated guys..everyone is loving bad, and innocent people always suffer due to them. T_T

but that means the innocent people are also bad

Flavahbeast
Jul 21, 2001


Red and Black posted:

Can someone give me a run down on what evidence there is that Russia even invaded the Donbass?

This guy's the one who dragged Russia into the Donbass war, if you believe him: https://www.themoscowtimes.com/2014/11/21/russias-igor-strelkov-i-am-responsible-for-war-in-eastern-ukraine-a41598

He's also been responsible for taking a lot of russian+belarusian citizens videos of armour movements from tiktok and posting them on twitter

https://twitter.com/GirkinGirkin/status/1491120509299347461
edit: almost definitely not actually him

Flavahbeast fucked around with this message at 23:17 on Feb 14, 2022

Flavahbeast
Jul 21, 2001


cinci zoo sniper posted:

That’s not his account, as far as I know. Last I checked him, he was only active on his VK page.

Well gently caress, that makes a lot more sense then. Some of the older text posts on that account read as explicitly pro-invasion so I assumed it was him

Flavahbeast
Jul 21, 2001


If he quietly winds down the mobilization I don't think he'll suffer too many external consequences from this other than every Ukrainian soldier in Donbass dual wielding javelins. He can even quip a few zingers at all the international hysteria triggered by a few ~exercises~

Flavahbeast
Jul 21, 2001



I can see why Trump never got his tank parade, those things look like a huge pain to deal with

Flavahbeast
Jul 21, 2001


BoldFace posted:

Some minor (?) power outages happening in Kharkiv.

https://youtu.be/H7ZbVufqW3s

https://twitter.com/MarQs__/status/1493728930406092800

Flavahbeast
Jul 21, 2001


Conspiratiorist posted:

BREAKING NEWS: Someone got close enough for the Reuters stream to pick up and started playing the Soviet Anthem. Now they're playing Komm Susser Tod.

I think it's whoever's manning the PC Reuters is streaming from, I hear them moving in their chair and putting down a coffee cup sometimes

edit: they just said "gently caress jannies" with an american accent, did Reuters contract a 4chan guy for this :pwn:

looks like it's streaming from one of the upper floors of Hotel Ukraine

Flavahbeast fucked around with this message at 00:45 on Feb 16, 2022

Flavahbeast
Jul 21, 2001


Bathtub Cheese posted:

Why should we care about Putin or Russia if the US has no legitimate role or interest in the region other than Ukraine being a lucrative market for arms sales and international development loans?

That's a good question, why even discuss this? Very few people here will be personally affected if Putin invades Ukraine, maybe it's weird to be concerned about the welfare of people thousands of miles away

Flavahbeast
Jul 21, 2001


GreyjoyBastard posted:

2) lol sputnik isn't a reliable source for anything except "here's a slightly more unhinged version of what the russian state would like to promulgate"

Still, it's interesting to know what that is

Flavahbeast
Jul 21, 2001


Bathtub Cheese posted:

https://twitter.com/DougHenwood/status/1494740272227536896

Good point raised by an emeritus member of the Washington blob

Hopefully he's right and Biden just looks like a real dummy for predicting an invasion that never happens

Flavahbeast
Jul 21, 2001


Rodiel posted:

Biden is being pushed by a faction of the US elite that wants a new cold war. They don't care about Ukraine or even the US. They just want to keep the cash flowing.

What do you make of what's going on in Ukraine, then? Surely things are happening that Biden had no power to set in motion himself

https://twitter.com/nevedimka123/status/1494727967116873740

Flavahbeast
Jul 21, 2001


Wang Yi also said during that speech that Russia's concerns wrt Ukraine should be respected, but it still throws a wrench into the 'China has signed off on Putin seizing the Ukrainian clay' hypothesis

Flavahbeast
Jul 21, 2001


Rodiel posted:

Sorry for double posting again but I wanted to address this.

Ukraine has been at war with Russia for 8 years, why did they chose to leave now if not for western saber rattling? Russia has had 100k troops on the border for almost a year.

the footprint of Russian armed forces has increased bigly in the last couple months, and whereas most of the year's buildup was materiel in storage without crews a lot of manned armour has appeared in the last two weeks

https://mobile.twitter.com/MarQs__/status/1494295353897754625

Flavahbeast
Jul 21, 2001


Rodiel posted:

Yeah thats bad. I'm not on the side of the Russians, but I cant countenance this western propaganda sorry.

Typical american, dismissing anything that doesn't align with your worldview as state propaganda smh

Flavahbeast
Jul 21, 2001


cinci zoo sniper posted:

Has anyone seen any pictures of the building allegedly damaged by Ukrainian grad fire in Rostov oblast’?

https://t.me/sputnikossetia/13514

Flavahbeast
Jul 21, 2001


Rodiel posted:

I admit i hosed up. I shouldn't have met his racism with more racism.

Let's say that, somehow, Biden is right and Putin does invade Ukraine - obviously impossible, but just as a thought experiment - would such an invasion by Putin be justified, in your opinion?

Flavahbeast
Jul 21, 2001


https://t.me/rian_ru/146427

is this significant or have they proposed this before?

(auto-translated from Russian)

quote:

The CSTO Secretary General said that with the consent of the Ukrainian authorities and with the sanction of the UN Security Council , peacekeepers of the organization could be brought into the Donbass

Flavahbeast
Jul 21, 2001


Terminal autist posted:

Why is the US in a position to accuse or even have intelligence on the ceasefire?

afaik none of the OSCE monitors in Ukraine right now are americans

https://twitter.com/NRC_Egeland/status/1492575522630557704

Flavahbeast
Jul 21, 2001


OddObserver posted:

It's also posted by an organization that doesn't know WTF Wagner is, and thus clearly fails the test of being posted by someone with half a clue.

To their credit, they did acknowledge their mistake

https://twitter.com/GravelInstitute/status/1494832226638483456

Flavahbeast
Jul 21, 2001


MSB3000 posted:

Ban me if human civilization dies in nuclear hellfire. If not, make me a mod.

thats a bad deal, modding is a drag

Flavahbeast
Jul 21, 2001


CommieGIR posted:

Maybe, but Putin is also the sort of KGB Troll that would release attack orders and then retract them once the US reported on them just to fluster people in the intel community.

I still think this is pretty likely, the pre-recorded evacuation crisis video was stored in a folder called 'mongoose throw' (I've seen some translate it as 'mongoose strike' instead)



Mongooses (mongeese?) are animals that hunt a lot like small cats, they tire prey out with feigned attacks. The huge troop movements could just be a feint to exhaust the Ukrainians and make accomplishing some other goal easier, with fake invasion plans being fed to the americans to make them look stupid when nothing happens

Alternatively, engineering a crisis in Donbass could be a bid to distract the army from an attack on Kyiv and/or Kharkiv, but that still seems insane to me. Attacking Kyiv would horrify the world, including a lot of Russians. It would turn a lot of reliably anti-nato actors against putin

https://twitter.com/Snowden/status/1494818918086631425

Flavahbeast
Jul 21, 2001


probably this:

edit: yea that

Flavahbeast
Jul 21, 2001


Knightsoul posted:

In 2018, at the bucharest convention, our genius NATO officers declared boldly that we would integrate into our happy family called NATO, countries like Ukraine and Georgia.
THAT was a turning point.
Do you remember what happened just 8 days later? Let me remind it to you: russians tanks were freely running up Georgia's rear end while Georgia's president was cryin' on the phone with french president Sarkozy, asking for a westerner intervention and in response the french told him to shut the gently caress up and wait for the end of russians operations.

you mean 2008 right

also Ukraine wouldn't be such an albatross around putin's neck if he had kept the bodycount under 1000 like he did in Georgia. Every drop of blood shed will make this worse for him. The Germans don't want to cancel Nordstream 2 but they will not countenance the massive loss of life that an invasion of Ukraine would involve

Flavahbeast
Jul 21, 2001


Knightsoul posted:

This would certainly put an end to this mess

I don't think it would. 2014 happened over Ukraine signing an association agreement with the EU, a Finlandized Ukraine is not acceptable to Putin

Flavahbeast
Jul 21, 2001


brakeless posted:

feels like the obvious next escalation is demanding that ukr forces cease their occupation of
the newly independent republics and withdraw behind some arbitary line much closer to the dnieper

good luck to everyone in Ukraine

supposedly they're only recognizing the de facto borders for now, but we'll see

https://twitter.com/JakeCordell/status/1495857833107243010

Flavahbeast
Jul 21, 2001


V. Illych L. posted:

so this probably means that nord stream 2 is gone, doesn't it? big sacrifice for not a lot of gain

I'm guessing the pipeline only goes if Russia seizes more territory they didn't already occupy, with bigtime loss of life (which is still pretty likely imo)

leaving things like this would drive a wedge between the US and Germany on the issue though, and Biden was facing gop pressure to sanction the pipeline even before all this went down

Flavahbeast
Jul 21, 2001


HonorableTB posted:

This is ridiculous. Why are they now being ambiguous about this?

probably they still expect Putin to invade government held territory and are trying to give him an out before people start dying in huge numbers

Flavahbeast
Jul 21, 2001


Gripweed posted:

For the past couple days it seemed like the general vibe was "Putin is a MADMAN who is risking WW3 and the future of his entire country, any move he makes now will be a massive mistake" And then he went and did it and it's like, there might be some sanctions but otherwise there's nothing we can do about it.

he ain't really done it yet, the expectation is he's still working up to the it

Flavahbeast
Jul 21, 2001


Cugel the Clever posted:

Yeah, I regret, but can understand why there's not much grassroots mobilization in the West. The relative silence and, in some cases, even support for the Russian invasion by supposed "anti-war" groups, though, is loving disgusting.

The thing is, a lot of them truly believed that the threat of Putin invading was nonsense drummed up by Biden. Some are re-evaluating things after his speech today

https://twitter.com/GravelInstitute/status/1495905779077029889

Flavahbeast
Jul 21, 2001


GABA ghoul posted:

I've also seen the exact opposite claims from media. Apparently the language is deliberately vague and can be interpreted both ways. Hope someone digs up the actual text soon.

Also, 400 out of 400 yes votes in Duma. 100% yes votes. Not even abstentions lol. Democracy in action

https://twitter.com/olliecarroll/status/1496075653392834561

https://twitter.com/MarQs__/status/1496077705078611970

weird, this seems like a really important thing to get everyone on the same page for

Flavahbeast
Jul 21, 2001


steinrokkan posted:

The quick explanation is that Trump was a pliable moron who would be likely to get swayed by the military chiefs and other hawks to do god knows what. Just like he basically gave a blank check to them vis a vis Syria. Remember when Trump smoked something like hundred of Russian Wagner mercs like it was nothing?

yeah Trump would have happily started ww3 if he felt slighted

https://twitter.com/atrupar/status/1305848320569626624

Flavahbeast
Jul 21, 2001


HonorableTB posted:

I was checking out the air traffic radar and saw this, and it reminded me of our resident goon who was going to take Wizz Air to Ukraine around this time, when he posted about a week ago...friend are you ok??

they're still posting as of today, I dont know if they ended up taking the flight or now

Flavahbeast
Jul 21, 2001


acidx posted:

^^^Who asked them?

Still no video or photos of a crash scene so I'd call it unconfirmed, but this is interesting

https://twitter.com/lingy1989/status/1497356709584678916

Ground speed going up as altitude goes down, then no signal. Sure looks like a crash.

if thats actually real I dont think the transponder was supposed to be on

different alleged crash from the shootdown, I think

Flavahbeast fucked around with this message at 01:21 on Feb 26, 2022

Flavahbeast
Jul 21, 2001


freeasinbeer posted:

If it wasn’t headed direct to a war zone they might have kept the transponder on? 🤷‍♀️

yeah once I looked at it on flightradar's map I realized its a different location, I think the alleged shootdown was way south of that

Flavahbeast
Jul 21, 2001


Sinteres posted:

Shouldn't it be up to Ukraine to decide if there's any chance for a better way out than mass death rather than someone sitting comfortably in Washington?

it could be posturing to help Zelensky secure a peace deal ("the americans HATE this!") but thats probably giving the state dept too much credit

Flavahbeast
Jul 21, 2001


Paracausal posted:

https://twitter.com/PutinIsAVirus/status/1498013700543983619

now even russian media is reporting on casualty numbers, must be bad!

almost certainly a hack or a sympathetic person on the inside, the same thing happened yesterday I think

Flavahbeast
Jul 21, 2001


WAR CRIME GIGOLO posted:

Live UA is down again.



(((Maximum war crimes engaged)))

works on my machine

it's constantly getting hammered so you gotta give it a couple tries, I haven't seen it go down for real in a while

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Flavahbeast
Jul 21, 2001


TheRat posted:

A couple of pages back american intelligence estimated between 500 and 5000 but said it was very hard to get accurate numbers. So yeah, 9k is almost certainly about as accurate as the ghost of kyiv doing that ejection RPG move from Call of Duty

this is heinous bf1942 erasure

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