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Mooseontheloose
May 13, 2003

Alchenar posted:

No, Russian propaganda is always terrible. The problem is it's also quite effective within Russia - most people still get their news from the TV and the only stuff on the airwaves is pushing the Kremlin line.

I wish I could find the article or interview but NPR interviewed an American who goes onto Russian state media to be the guy whose constantly saying, actually none of this is true and he says the way Russian media works is they basically flood with their points, let you make your point and then have someone shout you down or move on quickly from you. Essentially, its just a cacophony that only allows Kremlin based media points breathe. And of course the only talk of the United States is when bad things happen.

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Mooseontheloose
May 13, 2003

steinrokkan posted:

President Zelensky was quoted by the DPR Press Agency as saying "Somebody had to take Putin home and I noticed he was sitting on HIS SWEET ROSTOV so I grab his SWEET ROSTOV. Oh, just thinking about his SWEET ROSTOV I wish I had his SWEESWEESWEET ROSTOV"

Mr. Zelensky, you admit to wanting ROSTOV.
Your silence only incriminates you further.
Mr. Zelensky why are you attacking autonomous Donbas?! NOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOO!

Mooseontheloose
May 13, 2003
For the foreign policy experts out here... why challenge for Ukraine now? Why not do it when you had a friendly American President who would of let you do it and crumble NATO at the same time?

I guess I get this feeling that Putin thought Biden would crack under the pressure and that the American domestic apparatus would splinter so bad that he would be force to concede to Russia.

Mooseontheloose
May 13, 2003
Taking aside security apparatus, if you are the rest of the Europe why they hell aren't you building up new energy infrastructure to finally have to not deal with Russia and petrolstate. Now more than ever is the time to bolster you're energy projects.

Mooseontheloose
May 13, 2003

Sinteres posted:

I feel like you just answered your own question, but also saying gently caress you to the US out of spite is pretty satisfying. Like historically Castro was suicidally enthusiastic about nukes, to the point where he was mad that the Soviets didn't stand firm, even with the understanding that Cuba would have been obliterated. The Soviets thought he was loving insane, and later on he admitted he was wrong.

Castro also wanted to fire nukes without having to get Russian permission first, which uh...

Of course the Cuban Missile Crisis would of been avoided if the obsolete nukes in Turkey had been removed what like a few years prior? As Kennedy assumed they had been.

Mooseontheloose
May 13, 2003

Landlords getting hosed over seems like win, win, win.

Mooseontheloose
May 13, 2003
I hate asking this question but what are the chances that Ukraine can even afflict enough losses against Russia to make them withdraw or force a peace? Is there even a path to victory military for Ukraine?

Mooseontheloose
May 13, 2003
I know this is a small thing and maybe fruitless but if you are an American call your rep or senator and see if they will create TPS status for Ukrainians who are fleeing this horrific war.

Mooseontheloose
May 13, 2003

GreyjoyBastard posted:

I'd hope that's already in the pipeline but I'll give a jingle to


Cruz and Cornyn :negative:

Cruz might be open to it because he has a cold warrior mindset and Ukrainians are European.

Mooseontheloose
May 13, 2003

KillHour posted:

This line of thinking is strongly discouraged here as war-mongering, but I can't reconcile the idea that letting this happen is in any way acceptable. There's no "right" answer here but watching Ukraine get steamrolled by Russia on live TV while we talk about "sanctions kind of maybe" feels loving terrible. This isn't getting involved in some religious/cultural dispute so we can destabilize the region for money and oil. This is a major power declaring a hot war and letting them do it because we only feel like playing world police when the other side can't hurt us. It loving sucks.

its a reminder of how powerless we are, if some madman with tanks and guns want to end your democratic experiment tough loving luck. And that's what terrifying, there isn't anything 99.9% of us can do about it.

Mooseontheloose
May 13, 2003

Grouchio posted:

I've been informed by a friend that there have been bombings in Moldova - meaning that NATO involvement is inescapable. Aren't there Russians stationed in Transnistria attacking Ukraine and not Moldova? What's going on there?

Maldova isn't a member of NATO, just a partner state.

Not everything is true even if its from a friend.

Mooseontheloose
May 13, 2003

Dwesa posted:

seems like a strange goal, it does not produce electricity

If you want to sow fear its a goal.

Mooseontheloose
May 13, 2003

coelomate posted:

This is my take as well. It's terrifying that Putin took an action many people considered insane and irrational. But he has, and now a largely united west is in the process of responding, and the photos and videos will bring this war home to a historically unprecedented degree.

I don't think this is how he imagined it going.

It seemed he thought that Joe Biden was all talk and that France and GB were adverse to doing anything and being an autocrat didn't bother to think that people would resist. He is EX-KGB after all, I am sure he sees Americans/Britain/whatever as inferior and weak unlike his strong mental and physical capabilities.

Mooseontheloose
May 13, 2003

CommieGIR posted:

The goal is Ukraine. Putin openly said as much in his pre-recoded speech. Their intention is to do regime change, demilitarize Ukraine, and hunt down "undesirables".

It should also be pointed out that Putin probably recorded his decleration of war. There was not peaceful option he was willing to accept unless it was make Ukraine a Russian puppet.

Mooseontheloose
May 13, 2003

cinci zoo sniper posted:

There are big disagreements over the sanctions, embarrassingly but unsurprisingly.

https://twitter.com/MatinaStevis/status/1496758467943866374

If this tweet is believed, Italy is seriously worried about their Balenciaga exports. :suicide:

If there's one time when Americans indiscriminately shouting down Europeans is appropriate, it's now.

Isn't this where American economic power can be helpful? Like, telling these countries, we'll find markets for you don't worry?

Mooseontheloose
May 13, 2003
It's sad and I have said this before the last American president to have a coherent foreign policy and who really seem to get how other countries operated was George H.W. Bush and this isn't a defense of him or his family and his association with Reagan. But he had a clear vision and a path and ways to integrate Russia into the post Cold War era and again seemed to have A foreign policy. Clinton largely seemed to ignore foreign policy, W. we all know, Obama couldn't meet the moment, and Trump is aligned with Putin (sorta) and had no vision either.

And I think this where the rubber is meeting the road here. There are no good or coherent policy frameworks coming left, right, or center to meet the moment.

Mooseontheloose
May 13, 2003

Proud Christian Mom posted:

A non-trivial amount of Europe's banking and real estate is built around just laundering Russian money and no one really wants to tug that thread very hard

Real estate in New York too, from what I heard and I don't mean (solely) Trump.

Mooseontheloose
May 13, 2003

Gripweed posted:

If he did that would open the US up to cyber retaliation.

True this feels like the US Gov't telling Russia we have the ability to do this, are you sure this is the path you want to go down?

Mooseontheloose
May 13, 2003

Gripweed posted:

Really? Or are you just talking about the facebook stuff from the 2016 election?

I mean, Russia DID hack the DNC, so it's not just facebook stuff in 2016. But Russia cyber attacks are done by "independent" contractors who ARE IN NO WAY ASSOCIATED with the Russian government *wink wink*.

Mooseontheloose
May 13, 2003

Gripweed posted:

I mean, the power is still on, the water is still flowing, I'm currently posting online, I haven't noticed any cyberattacks

edit: If the DNC hack is the kind of cyberattack they're talking about, who cares. I don't care if Russia and the USA leak each other's dirty secrets. I thought cyberattacks meant, like, actually damaging infastructure.

Literally took me one second to google this. Just because it isn't happening to YOU doesn't mean it isn't happening. Like, do you understand how loving stupid an argument that is.

Mooseontheloose
May 13, 2003

Baronjutter posted:

A 70's style gas crisis would be extremely good for the planet right now.

Certainly will accelerate demand for EVs.

Mooseontheloose
May 13, 2003

Silly Burrito posted:

If we could actually get them.

Yah, it basically forces us to go in with China on this.

Mooseontheloose
May 13, 2003

spacetoaster posted:

My aunt and female cousins have fled Kiev. I'm wondering if I need to fly to Poland and try to snag them to bring to the USA.

Has the UN said anything about refugee status for Ukrainians?

You're going to be in a tough spot brining them to the US. Immigration is likely to deny anyone coming from Ukraine to the US as they are likely not to come back to their home country. I would look into refugee status or humanitarian parole.

Also probably worth it to call your federal representation and ask them to file, create, or join any efforts to create a Ukrainian TPS or refugee status to allow for Ukrainians to get to the United States.

Mooseontheloose
May 13, 2003

how does one read that map? Like, what's bad and what's ye gods we're doomed levels?

Mooseontheloose
May 13, 2003

cinci zoo sniper posted:

:siren: Forums functionality reminder - if you find someone insufferable, and don't want to seem them post, please use "ignore" function.

The posting gap must be maintained.

Mooseontheloose
May 13, 2003

MikeC posted:

Sigh. He invaded because he couldn't get what he considered the bare minimum. Yes absolutely he would rather stop the tanks and get his neutered Ukraine if he can. War isn't free even for Putin

His bare minimum was all of Ukraine and a new government.

Mooseontheloose
May 13, 2003
I know during the Cuba Missile Crisis the US still had people they could trust in the Kremlin to tell them what's going on. Does that still exist now? Like if Putin said, let's attack Poland does he have any generals that would stop him?

Mooseontheloose
May 13, 2003

BigglesSWE posted:

Yeah many plans dissolve at first contact and all that.

Caen was a D-Day (June 6th 1944) objective for the Allies. It ended up being captured around July 20th. People plan but reality gives zero shits.

Everyone has a plan until they get punched in the face.

Mooseontheloose
May 13, 2003

mmkay posted:

Yea, I have the download link in history and it's still up (also got the file). It's some accounts and passwords from Russia's MOD (some passwords feel like they were made up by a 12 year old - 'asasin2014') .

Ukraineplans2022updated.docx

Mooseontheloose
May 13, 2003

quarantinethepast posted:

Dude the number of US leftists fooled by Russian disinformation campaigns is blowing my loving mind

I mean, its just using bias against them, it how propaganda works. We're all susceptible to it.

Mooseontheloose
May 13, 2003

StumblyWumbly posted:

I'm only part way through and not an expert, but he asks "What has Russia done between 89 and 2007 to anger anyone" without mentioning Chechnya, which was 94 and 99.

He and similar folks seems to fully buy in to the idea that having a NATO neighbor is a fundamental security threat to Russia so they have no choice but to invade. But, if NATO wanted to invade Russia they would be doing that now. Russia has other options, they would just rather sacrifice people.

The line about Russia being truly hurt because a personal assurance about NATO expansion was broken 8 years later (again, after Russia invaded Chechnya) also makes Russia seem uncharacteristically naïve.

It also ignores the cultures of Eastern Europe who were afraid of this very thing and said they'd rather have their own autonomy then be under the thumb of Russia again.

If you're a leftist to let cultures and people organize without fear of reprisal, to make choices for their community should be a no brainer. But here we are.

Mooseontheloose
May 13, 2003

Baronjutter posted:

Just open the borders you EU ghouls. gently caress documentation and due immigration process.

As a reminder you should call your federal representative and senators and tell them to file or create a TPS or refugee status for Ukrainians.

Mooseontheloose
May 13, 2003

Grammarchist posted:

It implies the U.S. has more support coming, making Russia's invasion more expensive, making the prospect of peace possibly more desirable for Putin. Maybe enough that he'll accept fewer conditions to whatever his idea of "neutrality" is.


Also, if the US is "against" a negotiation it gives Putin an out to say, I did something the United States didn't want to do.

I am watching CNN at the moment and take with the grains of salt you have but their military experts think that Russia was expecting a quick and decisive victory too. They were saying their tactics were to decapitate the government and not have to besiege any major cities. Now they are in a position where they have to siege a city and the numbers of Russian military to siege an occupy are low. Now again, this is an American station and American analyst so they might be a little skewed.

Also, to add to the other conversation we were having on certain leftists and their reaction to frame this as an American problem, is that quite frankly their world starts at American bad, therefore anything that works against America is good. They don't really have compelling frameworks that work in a situation like this so, it's what they're leaning on as their crutch.

Mooseontheloose
May 13, 2003

Majorian posted:

Eh, I still think it's Iraq, just because the U.S. had an incredible unipolar moment, and we just flat-out squandered it on the dumbest made-up poo poo. With Russia, it's grotesque and it's really stupid, but it's also the type of stupid poo poo that one sees from dying empires throughout history. They were already on a downward slope.

Also, we were still in Afghanistan which whether you agree or disagree if we should of been there should of been the focus of our military, not Iraq which was a total war of choice and had nothing to do with terrorism.

Mooseontheloose
May 13, 2003

Kill All Cops posted:

Perhaps they should close the Dark Portal.

That's map 15 man, we're only at map 2.

Mooseontheloose
May 13, 2003

Despera posted:

Fallujah was a massive headache for US forces and a fraction of the size of kyiv

The CNN Generals pointed out that Kyiv is around 2 million people which is the size of Chicago. It was never going to be easy to take.

Mooseontheloose
May 13, 2003

cinci zoo sniper posted:

Famous CNN geography skills. Kyiv has 3 million official population and is 2/3 the size of LA.

Eh, blame me more than CNN, cause wikipedia says they have 2.7 million people.

Mooseontheloose
May 13, 2003
So for all the military minded people here, does Ukraine start taking down more bridges and roads to prolong Russian logistics at some point? Or is that a no go because it would strand other parts of the country?

Mooseontheloose
May 13, 2003

Fabulous Knight posted:

Possibly. This is kind of off-topic, and I'm not American and have no profound knowledge on the topic, but could a pro-Russian/anti-NATO President of the United States successfully withdraw the USA from NATO by his or herself?

The only real danger to NATO is if the Trump arm of the Republican party takes power again. There is still enough cold Warrior/Regan poisoned Republican's that would never dismantle NATO. Trump's people are stupid enough to do it/take bribes from Russia to do it.

That being said, seems like a lot of European governments might up their defense spending.

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Mooseontheloose
May 13, 2003

Despera posted:

He gets fed the primo US intel and is an old cold warrior so I doubt hes lying

Also, the Democratic party isn't raising a stink about him saying anything which seems to me the intel community and the White House is both

A) ok with him tweeting things.
b) Using him strategically to into certain media networks.

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