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Ghetto Prince posted:CNN is live in Odessa. I remember my European mother said that she cried when the then USSR moved against the Hungarian Revolution, in 56, and put them down hard. Before the Soviets moved in, the US had encouraged the revolution on the official VOA and she said the Hungarians fully believed that the official encouragement meant we with with them and would assist. We didn't assist.
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Feb 24, 2022 05:30
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A potentially less dishonorable demonstration would be to dismantle Ukrainian hardware and then withdraw. Putin could announce that his purpose was to remove the threat. It would also be a pointed reminder that any Ukrainian desire to enter Nato is illussory. At this point, I might prefer this outcome to the ugly alternatives.
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Feb 24, 2022 06:02
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Inner Light posted:That would be seen as intervention. Do you want USA intervening in Ukraine? The West is powerless. A military response is unthinkable. Certainly the West can utterly deny access to the West's financial mechanisms but then what? If that has no effect, it will drive Russia to penury and what happens then? What will be their response to an economic blockade? Any sanction has to consider "Then what?" if it doesn't work. The West is powerless and it's humiliating.
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Feb 24, 2022 07:29
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That's it by god, it's time to be mean to 2 or 3 more of London's Russian oligarchs.
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Feb 24, 2022 08:07
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Pook Good Mook posted:Not much. They can harm companies and sovereign wealth, but the US can't do much to oligarchs. There is a symmetrical cost to sanctions though not equally symmetrical. I don't remember Russia's global fertilizer contribution but it's sufficiently huge to affect global food prices if interrupted. Impeding the Russian global contribution of laser neon will adversely affect chip costs. And of course energy supplies to Europe. The West must be willing to accept these costs and I'm sure crazy Putin doesn't believe they will for the long term. For the short term, Russia has a pile of cash to ride it out. So this is a long term issue and Putin probably believes the West will blink first.
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Feb 24, 2022 17:37
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OwlFancier posted:Speaking as someone without finances I would not really be sad if the global financial order was a casualty in the war. UBS, the largest private investment bank, just downgraded Russian bonds to zero. And below is the Russian market close. The Russian financial order already faces ruin. 
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Feb 24, 2022 18:34
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BoldFace posted:Yeah, let's just wait a month or two to find out if these were good sanctions or not. Bojo seemed more specific than Biden. Still not sure exactly what specifically we're sanctioning, nor how the cumulative effect would be "worse" than a SWIFT denial.
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Feb 24, 2022 20:09
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Have the Germans announced a financial response or are they going to send more hats?
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Feb 24, 2022 20:15
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Owlofcreamcheese posted:Europe doesn’t generally feel comfortable with Germany having a big army Neither do the Germans. It's an article of faith in Germany that anyone in an army is an idiot.
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Feb 24, 2022 22:03
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Not hard to imagine Putin crowing, "I told you this" when it was announced there would be no movement on SWIFT
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Feb 24, 2022 23:02
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Oh, that's interesting department: Sean Penn is on the ground in Ukraine filming a documentary about Russia’s invasion
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Feb 24, 2022 23:57
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FishBulbia posted:Putin is absolutely counting on this being a short victorious war I was alive, but a wee shite, during the Hungarian Uprising and destruction so I doubt I'll live long enough to read the future post-war accounts of the differences in what the Russians expected and what they encountered. I do hope they are surprised and dismayed.
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Feb 25, 2022 03:10
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CMYK BLYAT! posted:how are we not already at "(CW: War) Ukraine v Russia: Russian warship go gently caress yourself !!READ OP WARNING!!" I read somewhere that the "go gently caress yourself" was actually "taste my dick".
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Feb 25, 2022 03:18
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cinci zoo sniper posted:It was "иди нахуй", literally "go to dick" but functionally "go gently caress yourself". "taste my dick" would've been "сосни" or "отсоси", which both mean "blow [me]". Important and entertaining distinctions, thank you.
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Feb 25, 2022 03:28
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It may be that Russia has jailed more Russian protesters than have murdered Ukrainians today. I wonder if Russians are getting fed up?
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Feb 25, 2022 03:34
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Randarkman posted:Sunflower curse lady as well. Russian warship, taste my sunflower seeds.
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Feb 25, 2022 03:57
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CommieGIR posted:Yeah those are jet engines. They hit either a transport plane or a fighter. They are going to run out of materiel soon, wouldn't you think? And when we start talking about resupplying them it's really going to start feeling like the early 60's.
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Feb 25, 2022 04:13
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Inner Light posted:Huh? We've been giving supplies to Ukraine this whole time though yeah, but it seems like an important diplomatic difference between supplying for deterrence and supplying during hostilities
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Feb 25, 2022 04:16
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TulliusCicero posted:Holy poo poo that's actually huge if true They're not sanctioning Russian imports, but rather she said, halting the export to them of mechanical "instruments" that Russia needs to maintain and run their operations.
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Feb 25, 2022 04:48
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A full on refusal to import their oil would so shock the markets that the price disruptions would erode popular support. It's much the same thing with Germany: people paying more than they can afford for heating fuel will not support the measures. It's selfish and realistic.
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Feb 25, 2022 05:11
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cinci zoo sniper posted:So, uh von der Leyen said they would focus on "diversification" to reduce dependence but it didn't sound as though it would happen soon
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Feb 25, 2022 05:42
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Lithuania's Minister of National Defence: Our new aid to Ukraine is being transported. He doesn't specify but if the Defense Minister tweets it, one has to assume it's materiel.
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Feb 25, 2022 06:36
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Near Kiev. Denying the Russians their infrastructure. They are not laying down.
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Feb 25, 2022 06:44
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Ghetto Prince posted:The Baltic states are also part of the EU, which has its own mutual defense treaties and nuclear capability. That's part of why Finland never saw a need to officially join , aside from not wanting to provoke Russia. Finnish PM now says Finland is ready to apply if "it comes to a matter of national security". Russia: Finland’s accession to @NATO would have serious military and political repercussions.
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Feb 25, 2022 17:38
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cinci zoo sniper posted:Yeah, it's very clear that they're context switching on the go. We had supposed package confirmed by 3am Europe this night, with "nuclear options" clearly off the table, and now we've gone through like 2-3 new sanctions versions today, and now everything nuclear, sans crude oil, is on the table, including direct Putin sanctions and SWIFT blockade. It's like they realized Crimea wasn't a one-off, maybe we should have been more discouraging about that. And somebody gave Germany an earful.
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Feb 25, 2022 19:01
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https://twitter.com/fteconomics/status/1497270987150266368
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Feb 25, 2022 19:14
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Boris Galerkin posted:Is there a good write up of what banning Russia from swift would do? I’m not familiar with how banks work. SWIFT is a dollar denominated ATM for energy supplies. It announces and records transactions. Denial to SWIFT makes it a pain in the rear end for Russia, to sell and buy, heightens the symbolism of their isolation, but there are alternate ATM's. China has a mechanism for instance, because they strategically wish to provide alternatives to dollar denominated markets. Iran has an alternative. Which is a reason the US is somewhat nervous about this. Putin has about 600B in foreign exchange reserves. Denying him access to the West's banks so he can't sell reserved curriencies would be the "nuclear" option, not SWIFT.
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Feb 25, 2022 19:44
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Nenonen posted:As the last remnants of Ukrainian government fled across the border, they were greeted by two German truck drivers asking where to put the helmets. Commendable however, that Germany didn't require week-long mandatory classes on proper treatment of military hats, toward certification.
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Feb 25, 2022 20:17
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Keisari posted:If possible can I get in too? Because russian warships can go gently caress themselves
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Feb 25, 2022 23:21
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Dogatron posted:Ukraine needs more men and women like him at the moment. I'm sure they are around. https://twitter.com/IAPonomarenko/status/1497342913025650692?cxt=HHwWiMC93cbc0McpAAAA 
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Feb 26, 2022 00:29
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Shes Not Impressed posted:All lives matter, says the UN Russian Ambassador lol https://twitter.com/nexta_tv/status/1497356204812783616?cxt=HHwWgMC-oZ7i1scpAAAA
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Feb 26, 2022 00:44
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Randarkman posted:What are you basing this assumption on? This isn't WWII, if it's one thing that Russia really can't afford to just throw away its young people. One might say that invading a neighboring state for no reason than "I want it," rather puts paid to the notion that Russia values the lives of their military.
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Feb 26, 2022 00:50
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Tigey posted:Most likely to try to take some heat off of Russia and provide extra 'legitimacy' by having other nations join the effort. Basically like the Coalition of the Willing during the Iraq War. That he wants a counter to Lithuanian involvement seems reasonable, or in other words, yes, he's gone full Tonto.
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Feb 26, 2022 02:33
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Kalman posted:(Good for Kazakhstan telling Russia to pound sand - if anything, maybe this mess will make some of the states currently under Russia’s thumb a little more willing to try to get out.) Jesus Christ, puppets aren't what they used to be. Why back in my day....
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Feb 26, 2022 02:48
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It doesn't seem like there is any shred of possibility that Putin gets anything he wanted out of this. With a failed blitzkrieg, diplomatic and financial isolation, and now it seems clear, the promise of unending violent citizen resistence, what can he possibly salvage? I initially figured he'd dismantle Ukrainian military and call it a day, just to present to the world as determined and dangerous. But now? For Putin? Nothing. What a miscalculation. He's finished. Not yet, but this will finish him.
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Feb 26, 2022 02:56
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OctaMurk posted:The OG blitzkrieg took like 40 days. It's been two days and the Russians are fighting in Kyiv, so their blitzkrieg is actually going pretty well even if it fell short of their wildly optimistic expectations. Yeah, you're right. But I can't shake the feeling that, as far as invasions go, this has gone horribly (wonderfully) wrong for the Russians in terms of price and what appears that they will have to pay in the future. Does anyone think if Putin knew then what he knows now, he would still do this? I don't think I do.
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Feb 26, 2022 03:07
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Oh this is good. https://twitter.com/DenisMacShane/status/1497177396151296001
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Feb 26, 2022 03:12
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Apparently, the "Don't be alarmed, our troops are merely passing by," really pissed off Macron
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Feb 26, 2022 03:16
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BIG FLUFFY DOG posted:You’re going to let the French show you up Boris? You must nationalize Chelsea. Do it for the ghost. Nationalize Chelsea, sell it, and give the proceeds to the Ukrainians for reparations.
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Feb 26, 2022 03:18
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BIG FLUFFY DOG posted:It must have been something. He was almost as all-in on talk to Putin as scholz and now he’s the only leader to pull the big trigger Now, there's reports that France is offering him asylum at their embassy, if it comes to the worst, but I haven't seen anything official.
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Feb 26, 2022 03:31
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