READ OP! War in Ukraine: a distressed blender making too many margaritas at once

The Something Awful Forums > Archives > Comedy Goldmine > The Goodmine > READ OP! War in Ukraine: a distressed blender making too many margaritas at once

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Deteriorata: Feb 6, 2005

Boris Galerkin posted:

What exactly is the point of Biden et al coming out and saying they�re �pretty� sure that Ukraine is going to be invaded? This is something I never understood throughout this whole ordeal.

People in Russia have internet. Putin's trying to create a narrative to sell it to his citizens, and calling him out constantly disrupts that. Biden's audience is the same as Putin's.

# ¿ Feb 19, 2022 02:53

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# ¿ May 9, 2024 23:25

Deteriorata: Feb 6, 2005

BoldFace posted:

Oh, he's definitely on Russia's side, but that doesn't automatically mean that the video is fake.

Given the situation, it is much better to verify that the evidence is real before posting it rather than everyone flooding the thread with unreliable bullshit.

# ¿ Feb 20, 2022 21:16

Deteriorata: Feb 6, 2005

Knightsoul posted:

Don't you think it's been madness to expand east NATO presence in the last 20 years, and then expect Russia to stay calm and not retaliate some way?

No, there's a reason all those countries were begging to get into NATO. Putin is proving why NATO expansion was necessary.

Poor Putin. All those mean people are forcing him to be an imperialist rear end in a top hat.

# ¿ Feb 21, 2022 02:16

Deteriorata: Feb 6, 2005

Brogeoisie posted:

The number of Hitler comparisons now in last 72 hours of media is giving me flashbacks to media ahead of Iraq War build up with Saddam. This is not a good thing and feels like a pretext for major US involvement

The US is not getting involved in this. Quit fantasizing about it.

# ¿ Feb 21, 2022 04:28

Deteriorata: Feb 6, 2005

Concerned Citizen posted:

i mean, they hold military exercises anyway. obviously there is a literal financial cost to having troops deployed, but also that is what they're for. plus, i will also point out that all the reports of russian troops degrading are extremely unconfirmed anecdotes, not something incontrovertibly based in fact. the domestic optics are fine, they said they weren't going to invade and if they don't invade nothing has changed.

and for what concessions? who knows. russian goals are deliberately opaque, but certainly a treaty guarantee to prevent ukraine's accession into nato in exchange for something like russia ending its involvement is something that is possible and would not occur without a manufactured crisis to goad it into occurring.

i would argue that "all that.. and for what???" applies moreso to an invasion of ukraine than the idea that russia is holding out for concessions.

There is no evidence that the west is going to offer Russia any concessions at all. Only sanctions and other punishments if they invade.

Putin may be hoping for some concessions in exchange for not invading, but I sincerely doubt he's going to get any. The west can just wait him out. Spring is coming and the ground is going to turn to mush while his units piss away millions of rubles staying deployed without doing anything.

# ¿ Feb 21, 2022 04:43

Deteriorata: Feb 6, 2005

Concerned Citizen posted:

OK. They could, but didn't. Why?

They don't have to sit them there indefinitely. They've made no commitment to invade, they have no credibility to lose. They've sat them there and said "we aren't going to attack" while simultaneously having a deployment large enough to pose an existential threat to Ukraine. If the goal was to get the West to the table, they've done that. And if the West doesn't concede anything, oh well, keep destabilizing Ukraine through the myriad ways they can do so and try again later. But the ambiguity is the point - they could do it, so the West has to deal with it or risk a massive foreign policy disaster.

The west isn't at the table yet. Biden has agreed "in principle" to meeting with Putin, but only after lots of lower-level meetings to set up the agenda, which will take a few weeks, minimum. The clock is running on Putin and Biden is stalling him.

# ¿ Feb 21, 2022 05:35

Deteriorata: Feb 6, 2005

i say swears online posted:

the clock is not running on putin

The window of opportunity for actually invading Ukraine is closing in a few weeks, once the snow starts melting. Meanwhile, it's costing a fortune to keep troops in forward deployed positions. He can't afford to just sit there.

# ¿ Feb 21, 2022 05:43

Deteriorata: Feb 6, 2005

CommieGIR posted:

Putin already has that. And Putin knows that. Its been repeatedly said that Ukraine is not going to be a NATO member. And all they've done is instigate more and say "This could all go away if you say the line again"

No one, to my knowledge, has ever said that. Ukraine is not currently eligible for NATO membership and won't be for a long time, but as far as I know everyone has stressed that they are welcome to apply whenever they want and their application will be considered (although such application will be pointless until they meet the requirements).

# ¿ Feb 21, 2022 19:30

Deteriorata: Feb 6, 2005

Conspiratiorist posted:

They are eligible for NATO membership.

Ok, I misphrased that. NATO has certain minimal economic and military requirements for membership that Ukraine is currently nowhere close to meeting and won't be for a long time. Ukraine is certainly eligible to apply, but not acceptable at the moment - with no aspersions that they will never be or cannot apply.

# ¿ Feb 21, 2022 19:33

Deteriorata: Feb 6, 2005

Answers Me posted:

Isn�t that� basically true though? (I�m sure my �basically� is doing a fuckton of legwork there, but still)

Possibly, but so what? It's an independent nation now, regardless of how it came into being.

# ¿ Feb 21, 2022 19:54

Deteriorata: Feb 6, 2005

I'm wondering how the citizens of Russia will react to this. Alarm or just more eye-rolling? I understand them being rather jaded and cynical after having to put up with this for so long.

As a dumb American, I don't really have a feel for the internal dynamics in Russia.

# ¿ Feb 21, 2022 20:32

Deteriorata: Feb 6, 2005

FishBulbia posted:

https://twitter.com/PussyRobbery/status/1495871738139267081?s=20&t=mqOQRHOV49uq7hGWh7gYoA

Please provide a translation into English or at least a synopsis. Without that, this is meaningless for the vast majority of posters.

# ¿ Feb 21, 2022 22:28

Deteriorata: Feb 6, 2005

Nessus posted:

My own impression is that Putin smoked himself stupid thinking he would surely get the West to walk down and maybe authorize him to carve off the chunks he's moving troops into now and for once this didn't happen, and there's no actual plan on what to do in this case on his part.

I can certainly understand having a poor estimate of American foreign policy resolve but it was the last guy he was on good terms with.

That's my general take, as well. Putin was convinced that simply threatening to invade Ukraine would extract all sorts of concessions from the west. When they called his bluff and dared him to shoot his hostage, he didn't seem to know what to do next. He seems to know that actually invading Ukraine is not going to go well, but now he's stuck.

# ¿ Feb 21, 2022 23:36

Deteriorata: Feb 6, 2005

V. Illych L. posted:

obviously the situation is now past the point where such a solution is on the table. my point is just that NATO has been perfectly and predictably happy to see the situation escalate for their own reasons.

Ukraine is not a NATO member and does not currently meet eligibility requirements to join, so I fail to see where they had any part in this.

The situation is naked imperialist aggression from Russia against a sovereign state.

# ¿ Feb 22, 2022 00:16

Deteriorata: Feb 6, 2005

Willo567 posted:

My last question on the matter - why do some analyst believe that Russia conducting nuclear drills is a menacing sign? I mean I get how it is with everything going on currently, but don't these drills happen every year and are likely just a show of strength?

Because "some analysts" are clickbait artists who know that nuclear scaremongering makes them money.

# ¿ Feb 22, 2022 01:37

Deteriorata: Feb 6, 2005

Somebody's feeling a bit trollish this morning:

https://twitter.com/USEmbassyKyiv/status/1496115593149358081?s=20&t=GCZfCKx6XcS9dOaYaQ70hQ

# ¿ Feb 22, 2022 15:24

Deteriorata: Feb 6, 2005

Grouchio posted:

How much does Zelensky resemble Joshua Chamberlain right now?

Zelensky's bayonet charge absolutely nailed it.

# ¿ Feb 22, 2022 23:24

Deteriorata: Feb 6, 2005

ranbo das posted:

I don't expect Ukraine to push forward, they're probably busy digging in as hard and as fast as they can.

Russia seems to be waiting for all their pieces to be in place before advancing. If they're confident in their military superiority, then a disorganized assault would be more dangerous than a couple hours/days delay. Remember, their heavy stuff was still mostly positioned in Russia, makes sense to get it all lined up in occupied Ukraine before advancing into Ukrainian held territory.

Ukraine isn't going to give Russia the excuse by doing anything offensive. Doing nothing in the face of overt Russian provocation is their only tool to keep international sentiment on their side.

# ¿ Feb 23, 2022 02:09

Deteriorata: Feb 6, 2005

BIG FLUFFY DOG posted:

I am more scared of a nuclear exchange than almost anything and it is difficult to pretend not to

Just who do you think is going to be exchanging nukes? Only one country involved has them.

# ¿ Feb 23, 2022 03:27

Deteriorata: Feb 6, 2005

BIG FLUFFY DOG posted:

There was a dude earlier who was saying or implying the us should send boots on the ground

That's very obviously not going to happen.

If Russia overruns Ukraine and decides to keep going on to Poland, then it's a different story.

# ¿ Feb 23, 2022 03:30

Deteriorata: Feb 6, 2005

Sinteres posted:

What's the plan for bringing it to the front once Russia starts attacking though? Obviously you can't fly it in anymore, and convoys are easy targets.

"Dang, that little house in the middle of nowhere is getting a poo poo ton of Amazon stuff delivered to it."

# ¿ Feb 23, 2022 21:24

Deteriorata: Feb 6, 2005

Despera posted:

Well putin literally just warned the west he would start ww3

Dude just wanted to sound generally menacing. Just being a bully, talking tough.

# ¿ Feb 24, 2022 04:27

Deteriorata: Feb 6, 2005

smug n stuff posted:

I have to wonder, given that he seems to be invading the whole country, what was the point of the whole �national security council� meeting and officially recognizing DPR/LPR?

It was for internal Russian consumption, to make it appear that military action was justified.

# ¿ Feb 24, 2022 04:51

Deteriorata: Feb 6, 2005

Ghetto Prince posted:

CNN is live in Odessa.

This is starting to remind me of Georgia in 2008. Same long pattern of them being lead on and allowed to think NATO would back them up or allow them to join, but then all ties were cut the second the brinksmanship resulted in actual fighting.

No one has ever told Ukraine that they would be allowed to join, at least not in the immediate future. Ukraine has wanted to join for years, but have not met the requirements for membership for a variety of reasons and everyone knows it.

That they might join at some point has been understood, but it wouldn't be for a long while.

# ¿ Feb 24, 2022 05:25

Deteriorata: Feb 6, 2005

Kraftwerk posted:

A lot of European economies seem to depend on Russia for energy and to unload a lot of their luxury goods so they can't put up meaningful and serious resistance without crashing their economies.

If this is how the world is behaving about Ukraine, I can only imagine how much worse it will be if China finally decides to annex Taiwan.

Anyway- have the Ukrainian forces had a chance to use the javelins yet? I was just wondering if the missiles actually work as intended since this is exactly the sort of conflict that they'd have textbook applications for.

https://twitter.com/AlexKhrebet/status/1496864693226463235

# ¿ Feb 24, 2022 18:01

Deteriorata: Feb 6, 2005

Libluini posted:

until I saw that message about Russia threatening to de-orbit the ISS, I'd say rather low, but now? who the gently caress knows

I'll have to say, when I woke up this morning, I wouldn't have imagined "dying by a burning piece of ISS impaling your apartment building" to be an option for any of us, it seems like the dumbest and most unlikely way to go

There are other spacecraft that have been tested for use in boosting the ISS. The Russian ones are the main ones that have been used, but not the only ones that could be used.

# ¿ Feb 24, 2022 22:27

Deteriorata: Feb 6, 2005

Despera posted:

I doubt Roscosmos has direct control over the ISS's altitude or the Russians on board want to die in fire. I could be wrong though.

There's also a couple of docked spacecraft there specifically for use as lifeboats in the event of emergency abandonment. No one is going to go down with it.

# ¿ Feb 24, 2022 22:59

Deteriorata: Feb 6, 2005

Gin_Rummy posted:

Maybe a dumb question, but honestly why doesn�t the EU just straight up sanction oil? Don�t Norway and/or other Scandinavian countries have quite a bit of it that they could massively profit from without Russia in the equation? Or is that false info that I am wrong about?

To a large extent it doesn't matter where the oil comes from. It's all part of the global supply pool that everyone taps into. Taking Russian oil out of it just makes the pool smaller, which then drives up the price.

Conversely, if someone else is willing to buy Russian oil, it doesn't really matter if Europe isn't buying it. It still gets sold and Russia pockets the money regardless.

# ¿ Feb 25, 2022 04:35

Deteriorata: Feb 6, 2005

ZombieLenin posted:

What did the Ukrainians just shoot down over Kiev? That explosion was huge.

Ukranian military is saying it was a cruise missile.

https://twitter.com/polinaivanovva/status/1497051206774001672

Google Translate of text: "🇷🇺 War criminals fired on peaceful areas of Kyiv. 🇺🇦 The air defense did not allow the two deadly gifts of the "brothers" to reach the capital. Keep calm, help each other, get information only from official sources."

# ¿ Feb 25, 2022 05:38

Deteriorata: Feb 6, 2005

Baronash posted:

In all seriousness though, do you really think that England, France, or the US would consider an invasion of Estonia an "existential threat" to themselves? That a US president and US citizens would weather nuclear bombings as the unavoidable cost of defending freedom in Latvia? Sure, the US is sending troops there now as a show of force, but do you truly feel we would do the same if the build-up we saw in advance of this war was occurring on the borders of a NATO country?

Of course. Once you give up on any part of NATO, it all falls apart. It's a silly question.

Countries that ignore their treaty obligations quickly become paraiahs, as no one is willing to trust them in the future.

# ¿ Feb 25, 2022 15:31

Deteriorata: Feb 6, 2005

Baronash posted:

I don't know who these posts are supposed to be a response to?

You say that NATO would collapse if the countries failed to uphold their commitments. I am not disagreeing with that.

My point is: so what? If the threat of nuclear annihilation is truly on the table, would your populace choose

A) Fight and die for the territorial integrity of Lithuania while their children back home die in nuclear armageddon
B) Say "Oh geez, you're on your own" and let NATO disband

You're asking a hypothetical, the answer to which can only be known once the situation exists.

You're clearly on the side of of "NATO will back down, it's a meaningless paper tiger". Maybe you're right, but you have nothing to back that with other than your gut feelings.

# ¿ Feb 25, 2022 15:51

Deteriorata: Feb 6, 2005

wetdela posted:

What terms can Ukraine reasonably extract from a bilateral ceasefire agreement with Moscow? An open ended question.

"Give up your sovereignty and become a Russian colony."

# ¿ Feb 25, 2022 17:02

Deteriorata: Feb 6, 2005

Tigey posted:

I think this is an important point. This thread is fast moving, so its difficult to keep track of everything that is posted, but most of the social media posts, videos, commentator pieces, etc, are posted either by the Ukrainian government, people, or by commentators sympathetic to them (understandably so).

We are only getting an incomplete picture from one side here, and that may be giving us a misleading (and potentially overly optimistic) perception of how things are going. Whilst a lot of Russian media content/propaganda about the war is almost certainly unreliable trash - its still useful in some ways, even if only for presenting a picture of how the war is perceived by the other side (or how they want it to be perceived).

Its difficult to get used to, as in most recent conflicts of this scale, its usually the US (plus allies) who are doing the attacking, and they aren't shy about engaging with the (Western) media. We're not seeing that with Russia here, who don't seem to be engaging with foreign media as much (plus language barrier, etc), so have a lot less to go on from their side.

"Not getting the Russian side" doesn't really mean much. We know it's all going to be made up propaganda bullshit, so it wouldn't add anything to the picture.

Ukranian + independent reports will give us as clear of an idea of what's going on as we're going to get. Any Russian disinformation will just make things worse.

# ¿ Feb 25, 2022 17:15

Deteriorata: Feb 6, 2005

Play posted:

You're probably right but a lot of people with this exact same kind of certainty said that Russia would never actually invade Ukraine. So maybe let's not speak in absolutes about a future which no one can know.

The point is that if Russian troops get to the Polish border, there will be a wall of NATO soldiers waiting for them - and maybe they'll think twice about trying to cross it.

The goal is containment, not escalation.

# ¿ Feb 25, 2022 21:08

Deteriorata: Feb 6, 2005

BigglesSWE posted:

I really hope that whatever happens in terms of peace and ceasefire, sanctions are held in place for a long-rear end time. Eat your poo poo, Putin.

At this point, Putin's terms for a ceasefire will be identical to his terms before the invasion. Zelensky will tell him to gently caress off and that will be the end of it.

This is all about Ukraine being seen as reasonable and cooperative, and keeping international opinion on their side.

# ¿ Feb 25, 2022 22:45

Deteriorata: Feb 6, 2005

the holy poopacy posted:

Zelensky only turned down those terms before because he was convinced NATO would actually do something. Less than 24 hours in he was saying "NATO's bullshit and we're on our own, let's talk about that neutral status." He might be willing to drag out the fight to avoid unconditional surrender and widespread purges of Russia's critics, but he's not getting himself and his country killed over an alliance that he now knows will never defend Ukraine.

NATO was never going to do anything and made that very clear for a long time. Zelensky was not actually expecting any help from them at any time. You've rather badly misinterpreted Zelensky's comments.

# ¿ Feb 25, 2022 22:52

Deteriorata: Feb 6, 2005

Jarmak posted:

The rules aren't designed to be fair they're designed to make the organization work.

The permanent members of the security council get a veto because they are powerful enough to de facto veto.

They were also worried about the potential power of the UN being abused by some of the major powers ganging up on one or two others. Lack of mutual trust meant they all had to agree for anything to happen.

# ¿ Feb 25, 2022 23:57

Deteriorata: Feb 6, 2005

CommieGIR posted:

Yeah, that's the ironic part: The US did pretty well in Afghanistan and Iraq, but the problem was there was no real plan, so the DOD was stuck holding its dick in its hand for 10+ years.

This....this is pathetic on the part of the Russian military.

I had this crazy hope at the start that the invasion would be a complete face plant, Ukraine would counterattack and retake all of its land.

That's still remote but substantially less crazy sounding that it was 24 hours ago.

# ¿ Feb 26, 2022 02:14

Deteriorata: Feb 6, 2005

Sinteres posted:

Yeah I had concessions in mind for Russia to make in return as well, but I don't want to get hit with a probe for repeating myself too much on this stuff when obviously it's too late for pre-war diplomacy now. And hey maybe Putin really would have rejected any offer anyway, we'll probably never know.

There is no evidence that Putin would have accepted anything other than complete capitulation. Stop deluding yourself.

# ¿ Feb 26, 2022 02:39

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# ¿ May 9, 2024 23:25

Deteriorata: Feb 6, 2005

Dawn is breaking in Kyiv, and it's still Ukrainian. :unsmith:

# ¿ Feb 26, 2022 05:03

The Something Awful Forums > Archives > Comedy Goldmine > The Goodmine > READ OP! War in Ukraine: a distressed blender making too many margaritas at once

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