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i say swears online
Mar 4, 2005


...ironic? lol

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i say swears online
Mar 4, 2005

Deteriorata posted:

There is no evidence that the west is going to offer Russia any concessions at all. Only sanctions and other punishments if they invade.

Putin may be hoping for some concessions in exchange for not invading, but I sincerely doubt he's going to get any. The west can just wait him out. Spring is coming and the ground is going to turn to mush while his units piss away millions of rubles staying deployed without doing anything.

as soon as NS2 fires up, the eu will be politically split and ukraine is economically hosed

i say swears online
Mar 4, 2005

Deteriorata posted:

The west isn't at the table yet. Biden has agreed "in principle" to meeting with Putin, but only after lots of lower-level meetings to set up the agenda, which will take a few weeks, minimum. The clock is running on Putin and Biden is stalling him.

the clock is not running on putin

i say swears online
Mar 4, 2005

Rad Russian posted:

By clock they probably mean "costs to keep troops deployed". That's not cheap. However, with rapidly rising energy prices, it's no longer a huge issue.

yeah i'm comparing it to waiting until NS2 is online

also has anyone mentioned 150k troops to invade the entirety of ukraine is hilariously, woefully inadequate and russia is surely aware of this

i say swears online
Mar 4, 2005

Majorian posted:

That just implies that that particular demand wasn't serious, not that all of the demands weren't serious. It's a pretty common tactic in negotiations: ask for everything under the sun, then make your opponent argue you down to the demands that you really care about.

living under democrats in the US has convinced people that that strategy just isn't an option

i say swears online
Mar 4, 2005


what if one of them clicked the attachment and told us about it

i say swears online
Mar 4, 2005

Rad Russian posted:

I'll agree that's it's not enough to occupy long term. It's more than enough to invade with "modern" (sorta) hardware and force the gov't to fall. What are partisans going to do against tanks and jets? You blitz to Kiev and threaten its destruction, force gov't to surrender and go into exile, install a new puppet gov't. Can be done in 2-3 days when you have complete air superiority.

Although that's getting back into the unnecessary media frenzy fueled war speculation when the actual invasion is still highly unlikely. This situation is very different from Georgia, and won't be as easy to get away with.

that's not how COIN works. your third sentence says it all:

quote:

What are partisans going to do against tanks and jets?
a whole hell of a lot imo

imagine afghanistan where everyone has high explosives in their floorboards

i say swears online
Mar 4, 2005

Rad Russian posted:

Overall though, I agree that there's no good plan for "then what", hence why the invasion is very unlikely to happen.

this is my opinion. russian tanks rolling into lvov is frankly impossible

i say swears online
Mar 4, 2005

i've literally never sent one of these so-called e-mails before but i assume you can just hover over the attachment and see if it's a jpeg or exe or zip file

i say swears online
Mar 4, 2005

Discendo Vox posted:

You appear to be unfamiliar with current and past Russian activities toward these groups in both Russia and the occupied territories.

i'm sorry what

i say swears online
Mar 4, 2005

GABA ghoul posted:

Some people have mentioned that Germany should be using Nordstream 2 as a bargaining chip. Thing is, it's not just Germany's decision at this point. The European Commission has to agree to the project and it doesn't seem very likely at this point with Poland and the Baltics having a say. AFAIK the Commission can legally refuse the project on the ground of 'energy security', i.e. basically for no reason at all. Gazprom reducing gas deliveries this winter was probably an attempt to garner support for NS2 in all of Europe but my impression is that it mostly did the opposite.

NS2 is finished and just needs to be turned on. It's going to happen whether you want it or not

i say swears online
Mar 4, 2005

FlamingLiberal posted:

It's really not that different from the people who only get their news from Fox and right-wing Facebook pages. The longer you get a steady stream of that garbage, the faster it rots your brain. In Russia you don't have the ability to get alternative sources of news either.

or all US for-profit media in 2002-3

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i say swears online
Mar 4, 2005

BIG FLUFFY DOG posted:

The Armenian-American lobby is pretty powerful in California and has some influence in democratic politics through that. The Azerbaijani lobby is non-existent. During the nagorno-karabkh war I saw a lot of posts on Twitter and Instagram lobbying the Armenian position and basically none lobbying the azeribaijani position. I really doubt the US would intentionally gently caress with Armenia to prop up Azerbaijan given domestic politics.

kim k can say whatever she wants but oil politics and geography dictate the US will maintain a strategic partnership with azerbaijan for the near future

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