Register a SA Forums Account here!
JOINING THE SA FORUMS WILL REMOVE THIS BIG AD, THE ANNOYING UNDERLINED ADS, AND STUPID INTERSTITIAL ADS!!!

You can: log in, read the tech support FAQ, or request your lost password. This dumb message (and those ads) will appear on every screen until you register! Get rid of this crap by registering your own SA Forums Account and joining roughly 150,000 Goons, for the one-time price of $9.95! We charge money because it costs us money per month for bills, and since we don't believe in showing ads to our users, we try to make the money back through forum registrations.
 
D-Pad
Jun 28, 2006

buglord posted:

Caro is one of the SA stories I tell friends and family about because ifs both ridiculous enough to defy belief but also has enough coverage supporting it’s validity. I didn’t know there was still *more news* to the story. Thanks D&D.

Didn't the New York Times do a profile about him after he finally was freed from the Syrian prison?

Adbot
ADBOT LOVES YOU

D-Pad
Jun 28, 2006

Concerned Citizen posted:

ukraine has an army, it is not clear yet if that army is willing to fight russia. i am a bit doubtful the airport has been seized but it's not out of this world.

I don't see how they would plan on attacking and holding it as it may be a while before reinforcements can get there, but I could see them going in with a smaller force (possibly already there just waiting?) and blowing up everything they can to make it unusable for the foreseeable future.

D-Pad
Jun 28, 2006

Wafflepoet posted:

Again, gently caress Putin, but do deny the reality that NATO has some responsibility for this situation is simply delusional...

No one except Russia is responsible for invading Ukraine.

Hmmmm...

D-Pad
Jun 28, 2006

Wafflepoet posted:

Russia and Russia alone is responsible for what’s happening in Ukraine.

Please gently caress don’t think I feel otherwise. I’m stating what has so very obviously happened, but at the end of the day there’s only one responsible actor. I’m no apologist. For god’s sake I’d almost rather be an apologist for Russia than some Gabbard stan. Please don’t.

We should’ve done everything possible to guarantee the accession of Ukraine into NATO in 2008. Yushchenko’s government collapsed concurrent the illegal Russian invasion of Ukraine, but they were explicitly in opposition to Putin’s regime. The EU and NATO were already discussing the accession of Ukraine, we immediately watched the country be pulled apart by Putin fucks like PM Tymoshenko at the time.


You literally just said this you shitstain:

Wafflepoet posted:


Again, gently caress Putin, but do deny the reality that NATO has some responsibility for this situation is simply delusional. This is so much worse for Ukraine. It was impossible for them to join NATO once Russia hosed them in 2014, but NATO continued to be openly involved nonetheless.

D-Pad
Jun 28, 2006

I haven't been able to keep up with this thread much so apologies if this was already posted but The Drive linked this tweet that is supposedly from Kyiv.

Per the rules in the OP:

It shows some Russian troop transports of some sort rolling down a city street and then a giant group of civilians bombarding the gently caress out of them with Molotov cocktails. It doesn't directly show anybody dying although it's unclear if whoever is inside of the vehicles is ok.

https://twitter.com/GeografiaGeralT/status/1497406017688113152?t=JCQupQiIX_X5ZMU7eo9MXQ&s=19

I've seen a ton of crazy videos so far but in my opinion this is the wildest. I'm seeing civilians in a modern European capital throwing molotovs at a Russian military vehicle in an invasion scenario, something I never even considered I would see.

D-Pad
Jun 28, 2006

I heard a talking head state that all the Russian airlines use foreign aircraft, and even the one domestic manufacturer uses GE engines so if this keeps going on within a month or two all Russian domestic air travel will be shut down due to lack of parts. Like they could cannibalize planes to keep others flying but that pool of operable airframes would continue to shrink as things break. Modern aircraft can be really maintenance intensive.

D-Pad
Jun 28, 2006

dr_rat posted:

Seem like NATO membership isn't really the only option though. Depending on what happens, I would sort of expect after all this if Ukraine is still Ukraine and it's not ruled out by what ever treat is putt in place, that it will suddenly find itself with a bunch of nice modern AA equipment, and what ever else is need to make Russia attempting this stupid poo poo again not really an option. Also Poland and quite a few other countries seem like they would be up for defense pacts.

There was stuff that countries didn't really think was an option before when it came to Ukraine due to not wanting to aggravate Russia or what not. Now Russia just showed there more than happy to attack whither you aggravate them or not well then everything -outside stupid stuff likes nukes in Ukraine- suddenly becomes fine.

This brings up a question. If Ukraine comes out of this intact what are the chances they get NATO once removed? Like they form a defensive pact with Poland and similar countries where an attack on one is an attack on all. They aren't officially part of NATO but if Russia attacks Ukraine then Poland and the rest automatically get involved which then pulls in NATO when they are attacked. Functionally it's the same as just bringing Ukraine into NATO but it seems like the type of technicality you sometimes see in international geopolitics where NATO can say with a semi-straight face that Ukraine isn't a member while in practice any attack on it would end up being an attack on NATO hence NATO once removed.

D-Pad
Jun 28, 2006

Bremen posted:

Also, while infantry isn't great on the offensive when it comes to assaulting fortified positions, Ukraine seems to be doing a lot of attacks where it's basically soldiers on foot advancing at night and conducting more skirmishing and/or guerilla style warfare, which they've been doing to good effect. So much so that there's been speculation they're conserving their actually armored/mechanized forces for a potential big push later. This is also supposedly taking advantage of them being much better equipped with night vision equipment than the Russians.

So basically the conventional wisdom that unsupported infantry are at a disadvantage on the offensive might not be so true in Ukraine, at least until Russia shifts tactics.

This is exactly what is happening and I found this interview with an ex-US marine fighting in Ukraine to be a great look at how this is playing out on the ground:

https://www.theatlantic.com/ideas/archive/2022/03/american-volunteer-foreign-fighters-ukraine-russia-war/627604/

D-Pad
Jun 28, 2006

FishBulbia posted:

Feel like there would be some wreckage or video of a plane that size

I definitely remember some tweets very early on with wreckage that size that claimed it was the shot down VDV flight but maybe that was later debunked?

D-Pad
Jun 28, 2006

Vox Nihili posted:

This is actually completely insane. Some sort of special ops sabotage??? This doesn't look like a missile strike.

Marshal Prolapse posted:

I would think so, but man what mobile explosives could do that?

I am completely speaking out of my rear end and I don't even know what the geographical situation is like in that area, but it seems to me you could have some sort of small submersible packed with explosives navigate to just the right spot and blow. Even just using a small team on a boat if there aren't enough patrols or you had figured out their schedule. I also remember that photo that came out a week or two ago showing an all black unmanned boat with a camera on top that looked capable of carrying several hundred pounds.

It also seems like they timed it exactly right to catch a train full of fuel right over the spot that was hit and set it off so that speaks to some kind of intelligence of what is moving across and when because that would be a hell of a coincidence.

Edit: This thing or something like it maybe?

https://www.thedrive.com/the-war-zone/mystery-drone-boat-washes-up-near-home-of-russias-black-sea-fleet

D-Pad fucked around with this message at 06:50 on Oct 8, 2022

D-Pad
Jun 28, 2006

FishBulbia posted:

hmm, in the second angle there seems to be a wake or wave under the bridge right before the blast

I wonder if you were able to time the truck on top and the boat on bottom a few sections back at just the right time if the resulting forces going in opposite directions would do greater damage than just a truck on top. Would be even harder to pull off though.

D-Pad
Jun 28, 2006

EggsAisle posted:

The boats look pretty tiny period. Could one of them really have caused the kind of damage we're seeing? That's one of my main issues with the boat theory. It is entirely possible I'm underestimating what explosives are capable of, I'm not an expert in any sense of the word

While that boat was pretty small, it was bigger than I initially thought when seen from a different angle:



I feel like you could pretty easily build one of these double or triple the size that still rides low in the water and has enough room for a hell of a lot of explosives. Would be relatively cheap and very hard to see at night and there would be no reason you couldn't send a whole swarm of them to maximize your chances that more get through. There is most likely already structural damage to that area of the bridge so it might require less explosives a second time to finish it off completely. The risk/reward ratio is so heavily in Ukraine's favor to try something like this that I would be surprised if it didn't happen.

D-Pad
Jun 28, 2006

Paracausal posted:

An iccredible thread detailing A Russian soldiers' account of how Russia's best troops lost hundreds in April to try to take one small village. Fierce fighting but the Ukrainians were 400% more fierce. Russia never took the village, but their troops lied to superiors that they had.

cinci edit: infantry getting hit by artillery point blank down the thread :nms:

https://twitter.com/ChrisO_wiki/status/1578535556061233152

This really stands out to me:

quote:

The village already had a reputation as the scene of bloody fighting. Shayga and his fellow soldiers were given the option of refusing to go into the assault, scheduled for the morning of 19 April. "Our regiment’s zampolit [political officer] ... said we are going to Satan’s rear end, so those who want can refuse right here... since later he won’t be taking anyone back if someone wanted to return," Shayga later wrote. The next day, "many company commanders in the two battalions of the 752th regiment told their fighters that we are being sent to a sure death, since the Ukrainians are well prepared. So they said – decide for yourself if you want to go or not." Eighty percent of the battalion refused to go. The attack went ahead anyway with those who volunteered, but it was a disaster. They took six hours to walk 7 km to Dovhenke, under constant artillery fire that killed and wounded many.

...

The repeated disasters devastated Russian morale. Shayga says that "almost everyone" from his unit refused orders to continue attacking Dovhenke, as did the spetsnaz, airborne troops and Wagner mercenaries. They saw the orders as suicidal. The 752nd Regiment's political officer tried to 'remotivate' the troops by firing an assault rifle at their feet. Instead, they shouted back: "Let them shoot! – it’s better to die here, at least the complete body will be passed to relatives so they could bury us properly".

This is uh... something else. The commanders just giving them the option whether to attack or not suggests that officers have mostly lost control and are at a point where they have to ask instead of order because they know they'll just get fragged otherwise. No wonder things have been going so badly for them. Incompetence and logistic issues is one thing but having to ask politely for your troops to attack...jesus even Spetsnaz said no!

Somebody fucked around with this message at 09:30 on Oct 9, 2022

D-Pad
Jun 28, 2006

Herstory Begins Now posted:

yeah i'm familiar with ammonium nitrate

Ammonium nitrate as an explosive is pretty much always mixed with something, eg anfo, because it doesn't ignite that readily? and if you've got the sophistication to launch an attack against a highly defended target you've got the sophistication to make the stuff into a far more effective and reliable form. I'm deeply not sold on the idea that a truck loaded with pure AN fertilizer was the method, honestly getting a big ANFO bomb past lovely russian bridge security seems more likely. Or a small ANFO bomb in with a bunch of other AN or w/e. In any event this comes back to the core point that we still don't have an explanation that is head and shoulders a better explanation than any other.

Truck bomb may well be the explanation, but announcing your plans to blow the bridge six months in advance, repeatedly, and then making your plan 'fuckit we'll just drive a truck bomb through a security checkpoint who won't suspect a thing' doesn't seem like an especially high probability plan. Especially to do so at the exact moment that there's a fuel train stopped on the bridge.

lol if they big brained it 'what if we combined a train full of fuel and a truck full of AN' and used a separate source of ignition. maybe nenonen was right that it was an 'all of the above' attack

It isn't the worst plan. If you are at the checkpoint and they find it you just detonate and gently caress up the checkpoint bad enough it's going to stop traffic going across for a while and slow down all shipments in the future as security is trebled.

D-Pad
Jun 28, 2006

FishBulbia posted:

I mean they only managed to do 9/11 once, not that there won't be more sabotage and attacks against targets inside russia, just this exact attack would be hard to do again

If I was Ukraine I'd send a second truck but blow it up at the checkpoint, not like they have a checkpoint for the checkpoint. If they do have that scanning equipment on the Russian side you'd take it out and I bet it is hard to replace with sanctions. Even if they don't you'd slow things down even more and drastically decrease the throughput of the security checks.

D-Pad
Jun 28, 2006

The Lone Badger posted:

The optics would be incredibly bad.

I think you are confusing how this thread tends to view these things versus how the wider public does.

(USER WAS PUT ON PROBATION FOR THIS POST)

Adbot
ADBOT LOVES YOU

D-Pad
Jun 28, 2006

Are there any more of those diaries? It says part 1 but I am not finding any. I assume they haven't been released yet.

  • 1
  • 2
  • 3
  • 4
  • 5