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Cthulhu Dreams
Dec 11, 2010

If I pretend to be Cthulhu no one will know I'm a baseball robot.
Season 3 - February



The juggernaut continues, but the match schedule is even more intense now.



Signing some high potential young players to professional contracts.



Big Match against Man City, while they are sucking the squad is still pretty good.



Absolute horror show. Pedri got us off to a flier with a superbly worked goal, but two goals disallowed for offside, Moriba going off with an injury, Mbappe going in with an absolutely stupid two footed tackle putting us down to 10 men and letting them score from the free kick was a disaster.

We still generated more chances overall, but a very dumb match.

At this rate we will 'only' finish the season with 105 points.



Phew



They are just avoiding relegation.



The B team beat them handily, but Itoh gets stretchered off in injury time.



Phew



This was just dumb.



This should be a cakewalk, they are an out of form side in the championship.



One of the most comprehensive beatings we've ever handed out. They didn't even get a shot off all game.



Average position map, you can see how pressed up we are and how far back towards their goal they are. This is more extreme than our usual game but not that unusual, if teams are being forced into clearances by our press, our CBs and DM collect the ball and recycle possession over and over again. The heat map shows where their players are - they are just bottled up deep in their half in a low block while we are spread out because we are collecting the ball after they clear it and coming back in for another attack



Goal keeping continues to be a problem.



A chance to avenge ourselves infront of the home fans.



Revenge gets off to a hot start.



That is a lot more like it guys.



Steam achievement hhahaha. This really is just a victory march.



Continuing to get banged up.



They are going to get relegated, its at home, only question is how much do we score.



Not our best performance, Haaland has a shocker but the offense can come from lots of places now. We also contained them to two shots total, so the offensive woes don't matter.



Playing a swiss team called the Young boys in the champions league... but we are playing at the Wankdorf. What an amazing name for a stadium.



Its snowing! I guess it is Switzerland in Feburary. There is an old bit about 'can they do it on a cold rainy night in Stoke' used when discussing non premier league players (orginally Messi), that has become a a bit of a joke meme now, but I kinda wonder is a snowy night in Switzerland counts.



The answer is 'yes' anyway.

A detailed looking at some players stats



Mbappe has been incredible, creating both goals and assists and generally playing sensationally. He's well ahead of his xG and assisted by 3 pens, but it's still an amazing performance.



That Madueke isn't far off to show how good he is as a player. Huge assist numbers and a good goalscoring haul from limited minutes.



Haaland hasn't been as hot as Madueke or Mbappe, or indeed as hot as he was last season but he's still doing pretty great. He's scoring a few less goals, but has brought a ton of assists to the table so his overall impact is probably higher than last season.



Adeyemi is probably behind Madueke on the right just on form which is why I'm willing to sell him, but 10 goals and 3 assists from 15 premier league starts is a great return.



Pedro has been excellent in the midfield. Moriba has only scored 8 goals from 24(6) apperances this year.



Fofana is a man possessed though. He's scored 11 goals mainly playing central defender, which is just incredible.



I want more than that from you guys. Should ask for TAA in a swap deal.



They suck, we don't, its away but we're gonna win.



I mean that was closer that it should have been, mostly because I let Kane stay out there despite him playing like absolute garbage.



Las tmatch for the month, pounding Sheffield Wednesday into the dust at home.



Yeah that's an easy win.



We are 21 (24 if Cheslea lose their game in hand at the top of the table) points clear. We haven't quite clinched it yet, but if we win 3 more games Chelsea would need to get ahead off us in goal difference, and 3 wins and a draw is enough to secure us the title. We could have it all stitched up in march and the next 4 teams can fight it out for the champions league places.

Amusingly, we would still win the title for sure even if we just drew our last 10 games and Chelsea won everything!

Cthulhu Dreams fucked around with this message at 11:35 on Mar 30, 2022

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JustJeff88
Jan 15, 2008

I AM
CONSISTENTLY
ANNOYING
...
JUST TERRIBLE


THIS BADGE OF SHAME IS WORTH 0.45 DOUBLE DRAGON ADVANCES

:dogout:
of SA-Mart forever
That second City match was a horrendous beating, even for a team that's not as good as it was and away, but to be fair you were incredibly lucky. 7 goals on 3.12 xg is unexpected, to say the least.

Cthulhu Dreams
Dec 11, 2010

If I pretend to be Cthulhu no one will know I'm a baseball robot.

JustJeff88 posted:

That second City match was a horrendous beating, even for a team that's not as good as it was and away, but to be fair you were incredibly lucky. 7 goals on 3.12 xg is unexpected, to say the least.

We are actual noticeably overperforming defensively and offensively: +10 goals scored over xG, and -7 goals allowed over xGA, which is putting us 9 points ahead of what you might expect.

habeasdorkus
Nov 3, 2013

Royalty is a continuous shitposting motion.
If you lose a league match I'll be convinced that it's impossible without save scumming.

JustJeff88
Jan 15, 2008

I AM
CONSISTENTLY
ANNOYING
...
JUST TERRIBLE


THIS BADGE OF SHAME IS WORTH 0.45 DOUBLE DRAGON ADVANCES

:dogout:
of SA-Mart forever

Cthulhu Dreams posted:

We are actual noticeably overperforming defensively and offensively: +10 goals scored over xG, and -7 goals allowed over xGA, which is putting us 9 points ahead of what you might expect.

It's better to be lucky than good, but it's best to be both.

Cthulhu Dreams
Dec 11, 2010

If I pretend to be Cthulhu no one will know I'm a baseball robot.
Season 3 - March



Exciting month - got to defend our Carabao Cup title, and then we will have two FA cup matches when if we beat Brentford - the Aston villa match will get rescheduled.



Leeds is doing surprisingly well this save all things considered.



It'll be fine mate.



Ugh.



We put out the A team - this is about as good as it gets.



You've got to be joking mate, at the half way mark they've had two shots and both of them have gone in.



Its not enough though.



Mbappe decides he wants to win some silverware and more or less does it single handedly. Doesn't get the perfect hattrick though as no header.



I forgot the preview for the FA cup 5th round match against Brentford, so enjoy other teams trying to figure out how to beat us.



We whoop Brentford in a very strong all around performance - so it's Man United in the semi finals to end the month.



Huzzah.



I nickname staff 'Terminate' to remind me to fire them for being poo poo, and I just notice that the guy who's been doing my entire tactical scouting is on the chopping block and has been the entire save. Whoops.



Haaland has gone a bit cold and whiffs a penalty but its another easy win. The team has so much depth that someone is always firing



Home again against the Swiss. This is my 4th attempt to play this match due to crashes.



Another beating handed out. I forgot to rotate because of the crash thing, but yeah, to easy.



More new contracts being handed out.



I instantly sign the youth goalkeeper, but this isn't inspiring.



Everton are in the 6th - 10 places better than real life. They are still doomed at St James park though. We actually clinch the title here if everyone else bottles it.



Haaland manages to score from their kickoff which is hilarious, thats his second attempt too, the first one rebounded off the woodwork.



Haaland needs to be practising his penalties with another wiff!



23 points ahead of Liverpool. There are 24 points up for grabs, so as soon as we win anything we clinch the title.



Now for the semi final against Man U.



Given our dismal record from penalties I wheel out the big match training, practicing set pieces heavily.



Its not a classic, but Mbappe puts us 1-0 up early and then we Fofana just manages to hang on with an excellent defensive performance.

However, we pay a heavy price - both Mbappe and Kane are off injured.



Thats not that bad.



Oh dear.

Leraika
Jun 14, 2015

Luckily, I *did* save your old avatar. Fucked around and found out indeed.
:ohdear:

JustJeff88
Jan 15, 2008

I AM
CONSISTENTLY
ANNOYING
...
JUST TERRIBLE


THIS BADGE OF SHAME IS WORTH 0.45 DOUBLE DRAGON ADVANCES

:dogout:
of SA-Mart forever
I'd be worried if you did not have all the mon... talent in the world.

Are there even any other players in the game that could improve this team, apart from maybe a 3rd keeper?

goatface
Dec 5, 2007

I had a video of that when I was about 6.

I remember it being shit.


Grimey Drawer
How is team cohesion looking?

Cthulhu Dreams
Dec 11, 2010

If I pretend to be Cthulhu no one will know I'm a baseball robot.

goatface posted:

How is team cohesion looking?



Cohesion is good and has been since season 1 - happiness is down though substantially this season. I'm not entirely sure why, we had 4 unhappy players before at the start of the season but thats mostly been cleaned up. Part of it is Adeyemi being a jerk about wanting to leave, and its telling me its as a result of contrasting personalities, but I feel like it should be better.

On the up/downside the social groups have all merged into one dressing group morass.

JustJeff88 posted:

I'd be worried if you did not have all the mon... talent in the world.

Are there even any other players in the game that could improve this team, apart from maybe a 3rd keeper?

There is lots of marginal improvements around. The 'World Best XI' right now would probably look like:

CF - Haaland
AML - Mbappe
AMR - Salah / Mane / Fati - The fourth best at this position is Adeyemi. How much better is Fati than Adeyemi? Maybe 3-4% better? Not a ton. Is he worth literally 4 times as much a week? Nooooooo.
CM - De Bruyne
CM - Frenkie De Jong (Bonus mention to Kimmich) - the 4th and 5th best in the world are probably Bellingham and Pedri
DM - Kimmich (Bonus shoutout to De Jong) - this is the biggest area where we don't have 'best in the world' quality. Camavinga might, if he fully develops, be as good as De Jong actually is right now. As is, Rice and Camavinga are sort of rounding out the global top 10 at this position.
LB - Davies (shoutout to Theo Hernadez)
CB - De Ligt
CB - Van Dijk (shoutouts to Dias and Bastoni) - De ligt is the best CB in the world as Van Dijk is declining... though still the 2nd best. Araújo and Fofana are rounding out the top 10, but its all really close. It's like, a top 2, then Dias in the gap, then ¬15 guys who are basically of equivalent quality and it just depend what skew you want in your flavour of CB.
RB - Trent Alexander Arnold (maybe kimmich or Hakimi). Reece James is fairly unquestionably the 4th best in the world though.
GK - Courtois or Oblak are still the best and will be for some time yet. Donnarumma is easily the best goalie under 30 at this point though.

Most of these guys are old or very marginal upgrades on people we already have who are much younger and much cheaper. If you limited this to players under 28 it looks more like:

CF - Haaland
AML - Mbappe
AMR - Fati (Barcelona)
CM - Bellingham
CM - Pedri
DM - Frenkie De Jong (Barcelona)
LB - Davies
CB - De Ligt
CB - Ruban Dias (Man City)
RB - Trent Alexander Arnold (Liverpool)
GK - Donnarumma

You can see my recruiting policy in action here. The guy that is a significant upgrade over his Newcastle incumbent that I would consider picking up is Frenkie De Jong. He's sensational, is a model citizen, and is absolutely a great playmaker in defensive midfield. The real knock against him is that he's not as good defensively and in the tackle as Camavinga and Rice, but look at him:



And a comparison with Camvinga as of today:



He's probably not worth picking up because I rely on the defensive midfielder to actually do quite a bit of defending with the centrebacks which relies on them being good defensively and tracking back which Rice (who is a converted Centre Back) and Camavinga (who is just solid defensively) are much better suited too than the much more attacking Frenkie. Frenkie would be great in the centre mid roles, but he's not really a substantial upgrade on Bellingham and Pedri.



Compared to Bellingham he's got a technical attacking edge and reads the game a bit better, but Bellingham has that 18 Stamina, 17 acceleration and extra point of pace, and can handle the pressing intensity and sheer amount of running my system demands. De Jong runs 12.5 km per 90 minutes - Bellingham runs 15km.

Cthulhu Dreams fucked around with this message at 10:34 on Apr 2, 2022

Cthulhu Dreams
Dec 11, 2010

If I pretend to be Cthulhu no one will know I'm a baseball robot.
Season 3 - April

Surprisingly important month



If we win the match against Fulham we clinch the Premier league and defend the 2nd of our big 4 pieces of silverware (Carabao Cup, Premier League, FA Cup and Champions League). Then we book ourselves a spot in the FA cup final if we beat Everton. Additionally, we have to beat Arsenal to progress to a showdown against Juventus (the Italian super club) in the Champions league.




Weirdly, Average Lettuce is the only good Leaguer to make the NxGn best wonderkids in football. Popovic is one to watch, might be the next great striker.



Finances are surprisingly not terrible.



Despite the heavy rotation and massive squad, people are getting tired.



First up, Fulham. They are not doing well so this is a big chance to win the league but I need to rotate the squad anyway.



I gee up the lads in a team meeting



DON'T DO THIS TO ME WILLOCK YOU PILLOCK



Bam, we have it in the bag.



Turns out we didn't need 11 men



And its done and dusted. Title defence achieved!



Holy poo poo. The 6 million per week is about a 30% increase on our current spending, and I have no idea what I would do with another 248 million. Embezzling it would actually be more helpful than spending it.



Our u23s team is bagging silverware too. I've told TheFlyingLlama to sort out unfit first team members playing for the u23s, so he's had them doing a decent amount of work. Kind of unfair that Madueke was playing for them he got the winner to - he's very good by premier league standards so he's impossible for these teams to contain.



Time to go pound arsenal into dust at home.



Sir Jude Bellingham steals the ball and gets the assist after a nice 1-2 with Adeyemi backheeling it to him off their kickoff highlight.



We completely dominate the match. Haaland and Mbappe are playing for lead goalscoring honors.





We have several realistic stabs at the history books this season for team records. Individual records are unbreakable because I am rotating the squad a lot more heavily than real life managers.

Key Milestones

100 points - highest ever points
32 wins - highest ever wins



We've played the spurs enough now that you know the drill - we should be winning handily, but hard to motivate the boys when it literally doesn't matter.



Ugghhhh. On one level, great to come back from 2-0 down to tie it up. On another level, that was a shocking performance. Emerson Royal just sets us on fire.



Our u23 team could probably hold this to 7-0 against Arsenal in 90 minutes, so we're pretty drat safe here.



Another ugly goalkeeping display to be honest - we should have won this on the day but it doesn't matter consider the aggregate smashing we handed out.



A critical FA cup match. This books us a Wembley final to defend the Cup.



That's more like it! Moriba makes a big splash and leads the charge with a perfect hat trick! Left footed tap in, headed deflection to score, and then banged a right footed penalty into the lower left corner of the net.



Lots of potential internationals on the pitch.



With that we're through to the Final - against Fulham who we beat to clinch the premier league! About as easy a draw as you could hope for



You guys are idiots. Like, we just beat them!



A pointless league game, but I'd like to win to keep our chances of a 101+ point season alive.



Uggghhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhh. I shouldn't have put Gabriel Jesus in. He was upset about playing time. I fine him and send him back to fringes of the squad.



We won the matches that counted, and blew everything else. Its probably a combination of lower happiness and the team being complacent in these league games / second legs when we have huge advantages because they know it doesn't really matter.

habeasdorkus
Nov 3, 2013

Royalty is a continuous shitposting motion.
I hate hitting these bad runs of form/luck. Still, 2 more trophies to go and you'll have done the septuple.

JustJeff88
Jan 15, 2008

I AM
CONSISTENTLY
ANNOYING
...
JUST TERRIBLE


THIS BADGE OF SHAME IS WORTH 0.45 DOUBLE DRAGON ADVANCES

:dogout:
of SA-Mart forever
It was just bad luck in those two matches, not complacency. Look at the Xg; it heavily favoured you. If it was genuinely a 'complacency trait' that caused it, I don't think that we would have seen that.

That said, I wouldn't be surprised if this game did have a... let's sarcastically call it a mechanic where teams that are ridiculously dominant have that sort of poo poo happen, if only to avoid ridiculous seasons. I remember a football game from 2008-2011 or so that had that sort of thing in simulated matches away. If the player was on great form, they would inevitably lose 1-0 away even to vastly inferior teams or, at best, tie 0-0 or 1-1. This happened even after not saving, reloading and re-simulating.

JustJeff88 fucked around with this message at 18:00 on Apr 3, 2022

Captain Foo
May 11, 2004

we vibin'
we slidin'
we breathin'
we dyin'

JustJeff88 posted:

That said, I wouldn't be surprised if this game did have a... let's sarcastically call it a mechanic where teams that are ridiculously dominant have that sort of poo poo happen, if only to avoid ridiculous seasons. I remember a football game from 2008-2011 or so that had that sort of thing in simulated matches away. If the player was on great form, they would inevitably lose 1-0 away even to vastly inferior teams or, at best, tie 0-0 or 1-1. This happened even after not saving, reloading and re-simulating.

That would kinda suck, that kind of gently caress-off mechanic is just...unpleasent

Average Lettuce
Oct 22, 2012


Cthulhu Dreams posted:




Weirdly, Average Lettuce is the only good Leaguer to make the NxGn best wonderkids in football. Popovic is one to watch, might be the next great striker.

Let's go!

Kinda weird that Maritimo has two players in the top 3 though.

JustJeff88
Jan 15, 2008

I AM
CONSISTENTLY
ANNOYING
...
JUST TERRIBLE


THIS BADGE OF SHAME IS WORTH 0.45 DOUBLE DRAGON ADVANCES

:dogout:
of SA-Mart forever

Captain Foo posted:

That would kinda suck, that kind of gently caress-off mechanic is just...unpleasent

Agreed, it's awful, but I wouldn't put it past them. I've seen it before, as you read.

Cthulhu Dreams
Dec 11, 2010

If I pretend to be Cthulhu no one will know I'm a baseball robot.

Captain Foo posted:

That would kinda suck, that kind of gently caress-off mechanic is just...unpleasent

I don't think it does - I think we just got a unlucky and there is reversion to the mean happening. To put it in other terms, we'd won three more games than expected through to the start of last update, so our underlying performance was on pace for like a 32 win season with 5 losses and a draw. We were doing better than that on track for like a 34-2-2 season but there was always a chance our luck could run out.

This is compounded by my tactics. Almost all the open play goals we concede are the same - our CBs are pushed up very high so a fast forward can run off the shoulder off the last man onto a ball pinged over the top, or a number 10 gets in between our defence and our midfield then beats one of our centrebacks off the dribble. This is easier said that done, but when it is done it usually sets up a relatively high quality chance. Earlier when I conceded two goals from two shots that actually had almost a 10% chance of happening.

Even when that does happen our strikers can normally dig us out of the hole, but these scenerios are not that unlikely - and we've still been relatively lucky over all in those things not happening to us.

The last factor is a bit of gamblers falicy with xG and the mental model of the game. When we get 2 xG or whatever but still haven't scored, the next 0.1 xG shot iss till only a 10% of scoring. This is a particular problem for my very demanding high tempo aggressive tactics because it flogs everyone into the ground so we rely on going ahead early or me subbing on fresh legs who make an immediate impact. But when Mbappe or Haaland are very tired at the end of the game they are less likely to convert their chances than xG suggests because they are more likely to make mistakes because they are tired.

Then because the game heavily uses compsure, confidence, morale and form in finishing, once your men up front start choking they can definitely get into a mental hole and keep choking even though you are giving them a high quality opportunity which results in high xG. Haaland and Mbappe don't do it very often, but some guys (Ante Rebic) go on tilt and then play very badly.

Overall there are a bunch of factors but yeah it's mostly that we got unlucky lol.

Cthulhu Dreams fucked around with this message at 03:50 on Apr 4, 2022

sebzilla
Mar 17, 2009

Kid's blasting everything in sight with that new-fangled musket.


Dreams Out! Get in a proper manager like Tony Pulis or someone.

Cthulhu Dreams
Dec 11, 2010

If I pretend to be Cthulhu no one will know I'm a baseball robot.
Season 3 - May



The task ahead. If we beat Juventus we book a spot in the Champions league final scheduled for 1st June, so I'll do the two finals and the end of season wrap as a june update. Then I'll start simulating forward. If there is something you want to see in the 5-10-15-20 year view, tell me so I can make sure I get it.



For some reason I'm not getting a match preview to screenshot for the Juventus game, so enjoy this bid. Mbappe is like Rodrygo except he is good.



Zidane is the manager! That's a pretty good team.



Not of course as good as we are. Mbappe should have had 3: He hit the woodwork, collected the rebound and fired away again to have it parried away by the goalie, then Demir got it and had the shot blocked, then De Ligt scored from the subsequent corner.

Additionally, both the Reece James assists were amazing. They were both nearly indentical passes from the right hand side of the half way line to perfectly infront of a charging Mbappe on the left. Perfect weight and timing so Mbappe could collect them with one touch and beat the goalie.



I forgot the Crystal Palace preview, so we in the hunt to break a number of records including goals scored



They are doomed to relegation and we handily beat them despite a rotated team.



Time to beat Juventus at home and book that final appearance.



A handy win. We didn't play great, but we didn't really need to.



Champions league final is in June, so I will bundle the two big games together for the next update.



I forgot the preview for the leads game, so here we go anyway. The league table as it stands. 4 games to go. To get the record for points we need 3 wins and a draw. To get the record for wins, 3 wins. Obvious what we need to do.



St Maximin is determined to show he should be starting.



This guy is probably going to be the next Manchester United manager in real life, and is very much the next big thing. Why is he at Leeds?



3 to go



Need 5 goals from 3 matches (going to do that)



2 wins gets us the record.



This is wrong - the real life record is 102. Newcastles 102 was scored in the longer 42 game season.



The only individual record we are really in the running for.



They are midtable



But we have crazy fixture congestion.



Its not a classic but we do enough to win.



Why are our wing backs homicidal lunatics? There are seriously modern players with less cards than this in an entire 10+ year career.



These guys will be our opponents in the Champions league final, so I really want to win.



Goon sighting - Lynneth is in the first team!



Not a particularly promising start though.



They are playing us almost equally until the Pedri wonder goal (from the arc, hit the underside of the cross bar, went in) just before half time. Then we just pulled away.



Only one day off then we've got to beat Chelsea for that delicious points record.



Apparently someone has paid Rudiger off. The game is tied in the 67th minute, and he is about to try and pass to Bastoni, Madueke is already looking to intercept that, and he doesn't miss when given oppotunities on a golden platter like this.



We come back from the early Kai Havertz goal in storming style. The disallowed Mbappe goal was amazing as it hit both posts and the crossbar which I don't think I've seen before or should be physically possible?



Tada!



104 points, we are officially the best Premier league team ever with a 34-2-2 season record.



Medals!



Awards!



Victim of over rotation



More awards!



Even more awards!



The most important award!

I'll be back for the last two finals and then the to simulate into the future.

JustJeff88
Jan 15, 2008

I AM
CONSISTENTLY
ANNOYING
...
JUST TERRIBLE


THIS BADGE OF SHAME IS WORTH 0.45 DOUBLE DRAGON ADVANCES

:dogout:
of SA-Mart forever
Even with 104 points at the top, it's an odd year when no other team tops 78 points. I've seen it before, but that was when I, Chelsea, had 100 points (31-7-0) and ManU had 98.

habeasdorkus
Nov 3, 2013

Royalty is a continuous shitposting motion.
Sure, you bested my team, but you didn't keep me off the scoreboard. :smuggo:

Also, what was your goal differential? Like +110? Playing like danged Barca women's team over here.

Captain Foo
May 11, 2004

we vibin'
we slidin'
we breathin'
we dyin'

Cthulhu Dreams posted:

I don't think it does - I think we just got a unlucky and there is reversion to the mean happening. To put it in other terms, we'd won three more games than expected through to the start of last update, so our underlying performance was on pace for like a 32 win season with 5 losses and a draw. We were doing better than that on track for like a 34-2-2 season but there was always a chance our luck could run out.

This is compounded by my tactics. Almost all the open play goals we concede are the same - our CBs are pushed up very high so a fast forward can run off the shoulder off the last man onto a ball pinged over the top, or a number 10 gets in between our defence and our midfield then beats one of our centrebacks off the dribble. This is easier said that done, but when it is done it usually sets up a relatively high quality chance. Earlier when I conceded two goals from two shots that actually had almost a 10% chance of happening.

Even when that does happen our strikers can normally dig us out of the hole, but these scenerios are not that unlikely - and we've still been relatively lucky over all in those things not happening to us.

The last factor is a bit of gamblers falicy with xG and the mental model of the game. When we get 2 xG or whatever but still haven't scored, the next 0.1 xG shot iss till only a 10% of scoring. This is a particular problem for my very demanding high tempo aggressive tactics because it flogs everyone into the ground so we rely on going ahead early or me subbing on fresh legs who make an immediate impact. But when Mbappe or Haaland are very tired at the end of the game they are less likely to convert their chances than xG suggests because they are more likely to make mistakes because they are tired.

Then because the game heavily uses compsure, confidence, morale and form in finishing, once your men up front start choking they can definitely get into a mental hole and keep choking even though you are giving them a high quality opportunity which results in high xG. Haaland and Mbappe don't do it very often, but some guys (Ante Rebic) go on tilt and then play very badly.

Overall there are a bunch of factors but yeah it's mostly that we got unlucky lol.

this is good to hear, especially in a game with such a robust simulation engine

JustJeff88
Jan 15, 2008

I AM
CONSISTENTLY
ANNOYING
...
JUST TERRIBLE


THIS BADGE OF SHAME IS WORTH 0.45 DOUBLE DRAGON ADVANCES

:dogout:
of SA-Mart forever

Captain Foo posted:

this is good to hear, especially in a game with such a robust simulation engine

I hope that he's right, but I have a cynical heart.

Cthulhu Dreams
Dec 11, 2010

If I pretend to be Cthulhu no one will know I'm a baseball robot.

Captain Foo posted:

this is good to hear, especially in a game with such a robust simulation engine

Welllll... some of it is the game engine, but I will come back to that. A huge chunk of it is just your pattern recognition engine recognising you got FM'ed at an inopportune time - but teams get FM'ed all the time in real life. He's the actual results from last weekend in the premier league with the xG totals against it.



This is just.. last week and its not a full slate of games, but you can see that Southampton, Brighton and Leicester might be feeling pretty hard done by.

2nd week of march features:

Watford 2 (1.30) - Arsneal 3 (1.00)
Manchester United 3 (1.02) - Tottenham 2 (1.62)

If you go back to 18/19 because a quick google found me these stats, the three unluckiest results were:

Bournemouth (xG 2.85) 3-3 (xG 0.98) Watford
Burnley (xG 1.89) 1-5 (xG 1.89) Everton
Fulham (xG 1.32) 1-5 (xG 1.14) Arsenal <-- if we gave up 5 goals on an xG of 1.14 I would be enraged.

Sometimes these things happen, and when you play, what, 150? matches in 3 months, you notice the ridiculous results a lot more than if they are spread out over 3-4 years.

Now, I did mention that it is partly the game engine? How do I mean.

Well, the tactics I play create additional variance, because I produce buckets of low quality shots. Absolutely piles of them.

But that means I can get unlucky.

Say you go to 1.6 xG via two penalties and nothing else happening. You have a

4% chance of scoring no goals
32% chance of scoring one goals
64% chance of scoring two goals
0% chance of scoring three or more goals

Now, say you got to that 1.6 xG by a more Newcastle like barrage of 25 shots (approximately what you'd take to get 1.6 xG from headed crosses).

You have a:

21% chance of scoring no goals!
33% chance of scoring one goal
26% chance of scoring two goals
20% chance of scoring three or more goals

Now, this is a bit of an extreme example, but the average shot quality I concede is about 30% higher than what I create per shot - just I create like 130% more shots, and over the course of a season I expect it to work out - but I am playing with fire! It literally boom (I have a 20% chance to score 3 goals off an xG of 1.6!) and bust (chance of scoring no goals is five times higher with the take a million shots approach than the generate a small number of high quality shots), but it shows what happens in these games were we drop the ball despite being heavily favoured in xG. We consistently generate huge volumes of shots, just our average shot quality isn't great so it is possible we just get quite unlucky and don't score.

This is what happened in that annoying game where we conceded two goals on two shots - those two shots had a combined xG of 0.7. The chance of them both going on was ~10%. Sometimes a 10% chance is going to happen to you. But the important thing is - real life good teams don't play like I do! They much more patiently attack and defend to avoid conceding the high quality chances and create fewer high quality chances. Liverpool averages less than 20 shots a game. LP Newcastle averages more than 26.

Cthulhu Dreams fucked around with this message at 06:30 on Apr 5, 2022

Cthulhu Dreams
Dec 11, 2010

If I pretend to be Cthulhu no one will know I'm a baseball robot.
Season 3 - The End

Only two things left to do:

1) Win the FA Cup
2) Win the Champions league

Then the end of season wrap. Lets get to it




This seems wrong, we are a lot better than Liverpool. It might just be guys didn't play enough.



FA Cup title defence!



At half time we are looking very good despite only being 1-0 up - they haven't even got a shot away, and we are keeping them out of our box while forcing them back into theirs.



Fofana has got an assist from here



Haaland is just going to blow past his man and slot this one home.



Bam, we win!



They never had a shot on our goal the entire game.



Not ideal - I tell them not to train until the day before the game.



And the final game of the save!



How they line up. A pretty strong team



Our 11 for the match. I should not have started Renan, but people are tired.



We concede an early goal.



Mbappe ties up again


Reese James gets his second yellow card and send off for what wasn't that bad a tackle, but always dangerous when you're already on a yellow. This means we've go to play a lot of football - and score more goals - with just 10 men.



We're up for it: Haaland puts us ahead from an incredible ball over the top from Donnarumma



However, Rashford almost immediately hits back to tie it up 2-2 again



But Haaland isn't done and a low cross from Fofana sets him up to put us ahead 3-2



And that's enough!



Thank you



End of season wrap time!



Hard to disagree - was a great signing and had a huge impact on the club with 40 goals and 24 assists from the left wing!



How is this only a b-? This is literally the best premier league performance of all time.



The Gravenberch goal isn't that exciting - its a great shot from 27 meters out, but its just he makes this amazing kick.



Surprised Mbappe is only our 4th best selling shirt!



The best 11. I'd have De Ligt over Araujo, but hard to argue.



Awards!



Reece James is a serial killer?



The 'all time' best 11 - probably fair to have Trippier over James.



And we end the save with Newcastle having become the biggest club in the whole world. The center of the footballing universe is in... Newcastle.

And that's a wrap on my first LP!

Next Steps:

I'll simulate this 20+ years in the future so you can see how everyone progresses and what happens to Newcastle and other clubs. Tell me if there is anything in particular you want to see, other leagues or whatever so I can capture that.

I'll post a couple of updates for that (probably at like, 5, 10 and 20 years or similar), then try and work out how to get the thread archived!

Cthulhu Dreams fucked around with this message at 07:29 on Apr 5, 2022

sebzilla
Mar 17, 2009

Kid's blasting everything in sight with that new-fangled musket.


My standard "do Forest Green make it to the Championship before Dale Vince gets bored" question for long-term FM games, please.

JustJeff88
Jan 15, 2008

I AM
CONSISTENTLY
ANNOYING
...
JUST TERRIBLE


THIS BADGE OF SHAME IS WORTH 0.45 DOUBLE DRAGON ADVANCES

:dogout:
of SA-Mart forever

sebzilla posted:

My standard "do Forest Green make it to the Championship before Dale Vince gets bored" question for long-term FM games, please.

This reference is beyond me, but I like slow-build games myself. FM is tailor-made for LPs, especially long ones.

Leraika
Jun 14, 2015

Luckily, I *did* save your old avatar. Fucked around and found out indeed.
I wanna see how I ended up doing.

habeasdorkus
Nov 3, 2013

Royalty is a continuous shitposting motion.
Man U were fools for not having started me! That's why they lost the final!

sebzilla
Mar 17, 2009

Kid's blasting everything in sight with that new-fangled musket.


JustJeff88 posted:

This reference is beyond me, but I like slow-build games myself. FM is tailor-made for LPs, especially long ones.

Forest Green Rovers are my local team and spent a billion years sitting in the 5th tier (highest "non-League" level) before being bought by local renewable energy enthusiast and former caravan dweller Dale Vince. Under his ownership they finally got promoted to League Two a few years ago (the 4th highest tier or English football, and the lowest Football League level) and put a star on the back of their shirts along with two hollow stars to be filled in upon promotion to League One and the Championship. In real life they're currently on course to get promoted again this season despite doing their best to bottle it over the past month or so.

They're somewhat notable for being from the smallest town to ever have a League club, and for a whole host of green environmentalist measures including but not limited to vegan matchday food for the team and all fans, and a solar-powered robot lawnmower. Oh, and they're planning to build a wooden stadium.

Captain Foo
May 11, 2004

we vibin'
we slidin'
we breathin'
we dyin'

Leraika posted:

I wanna see how I ended up doing.

Maslovo
Oct 12, 2016

Does Adeyemi still want to go to a bigger club?

sebzilla posted:

They're somewhat notable for... a whole host of green environmentalist measures. Oh, and they're planning to build a wooden stadium.

wuh?

Cthulhu Dreams
Dec 11, 2010

If I pretend to be Cthulhu no one will know I'm a baseball robot.

Maslovo posted:

Does Adeyemi still want to go to a bigger club?

wuh?

No, now he is mad about not being able to join PSG specifically. He is very annoying.

I'm still simming into the future, but I will post a 5 year update soon.

Cthulhu Dreams
Dec 11, 2010

If I pretend to be Cthulhu no one will know I'm a baseball robot.
5 years on



At the end of the LP save I have a bit of a laugh. I used the editor to make myself the Australian Manager. When I resigned from Newcastle TFLlama quits, so I immediately hire him for almost twice my salary, tell him we're using the same tactics we did at Newcastle, put him in charge of everything else and go on holiday indefinitely.

How is Newcastle getting on



Well, they've won the premier league every year, so 'pretty good'



They are still on their first manager. Milano is a long time Italian manager, including Milan and two stints Juventus. In this universe when I turned down the Athletico Madrid job, he took it, won nothing, then took the Newcastle job.



They've won a lot of silverware - the Club World Championship, and they've won everything else going - but not every time.



The ownership has withdrawn the big funding injection.



Newcastle have beaten my record for premier league points! The faces you'd expect to see from Newcastle are still dominating the space.



Other than a blip last year, they are still dominating the Champions league as well



FA cup on the other hand! Only managed 1 win and its been a mix of other teams. They haven't even made the final other than the time they won it.



Some managers don't care very much about the domestic cups, so I was expecting the performance in the Carabao cup to be as poor as the FA cup...but somehow its still a strong Newcastle performance? They didnt make the final last year though.



I'm surprised at the level of squad turnover. I'll post the full list of transfers later, but the outs:

Season 4: Joe Willock
Season 5: St Maximin, Declan Rice, Reddie Woodman, Adeyemi
Season 6: Gravenberch, Harry Kane, Renan, Sesko, Frances, Jonjo Campell
Season 7: Demir
Season 8: Musiala!



They've switched to a 4-4-2 which probably explains some of those sales.



Moriba has blossomed and is probably the best midfield player in history.



Nicolas Davila is now one of the starting centrebacks and has blossomed into a hugely physical force in the centre of defence.

World Awards



Haaland is going to be feeling pretty hard done by to have been overshadowed by Mbappe and Fati imho.



Player of the year is the same story.



Donnarumma is slowly moving into best goalie in the world. Alison and Stegen will be out of the game in 5 more years.



We had a world cup! England failed to defend their title. The Flying Llama got knocked out by Nigeria.



Man City becoming Europa League regulars is funny to me.



Big RIP to Forrest Green getting relegated back to League two.



They have moved into their new stadium!



Everyone has moved into regular starter status.



Habeas Dorkus is



Lynneth is now regarded as one of the best centrebacks in England after a loan spell at Ipswich, though playing for Manchester United is helping boost their profile. Two Carabao Cup wins and an FA cup win is a good start to a promising career, and Manchester United has just re-upped them for another 5 years.



I was expecting Frankenfreak to get a move to a big club, and it has happened, getting a move to Manchester City but then spending a year on loan at Celtic. They are very good, but not quite amazing. 37 caps for Algeria is a good start to their international career as well.



:ohdear: Alikchi has been a been a bit of a bust, though they are getting on the pitch for Lazio, but 14 goals from 105 appearances is not what you want from a striker. As they seem to be almost entirely coming off the bench, they really need to go somewhere they an be a rusted on starter to find some feet and get some game minutes under their belt.



Its completely inexplicable that Captain Foo is still playing his football for Riverplate in Argentina. He's getting paid 50% more than River Plates current highest paid player, so they obviously want to hang on to him, but surely a move to a top 5 league should be on the cards.



Leriaka here still has quite a bit of untapped potential, but needs to reach it soon, otherwise they never will. Inexplicably Manchester united is torpedo'ing their develop by keeping them in the under 23s team? I have no idea what is going on. That said, even if they never get any better they are still a quite decent Premier league player.



Unlike the other players who should be firmly entrenched in the first team, NiftyBottle is still a goalkeeping baby. They are backing up the aging Alex Merat at Bayern. They have plenty of time yet, but I'd want them to get some more first team football to make sure they continue to develop.



Average Lettuce has developed into a really weird player. You look at them, and think they are terrible, but thats not really an accurate assessment. Then you look at them some more and go they have a bunch of great tools, but how do you deploy them? Either way they shouldn't be in the B team, but you'd hope that 4 goals from 12 starts in the league is enough to convince the powers that... B to give them a crack in the senior team. They are stuck behind the 33 year old Andre Silva which would normally be a good sign for more first team football, but Silva has super high natural fitness so he will age out more slowly.



Well, he's quite good isn't he.

Transfer Business








Tell me if there is anything else you want to see! I will be back for the 10 and 20 year view.

Cthulhu Dreams fucked around with this message at 09:29 on Apr 6, 2022

sebzilla
Mar 17, 2009

Kid's blasting everything in sight with that new-fangled musket.


Maslovo posted:

Does Adeyemi still want to go to a bigger club?

wuh?

https://youtu.be/s9jvN_QizrE

JustJeff88
Jan 15, 2008

I AM
CONSISTENTLY
ANNOYING
...
JUST TERRIBLE


THIS BADGE OF SHAME IS WORTH 0.45 DOUBLE DRAGON ADVANCES

:dogout:
of SA-Mart forever
I went from British/Canadian to Columbian and didn't notice. Weird Science!

Lynneth
Sep 13, 2011
yay, I'm a good player :D

habeasdorkus
Nov 3, 2013

Royalty is a continuous shitposting motion.
I want to move to a bigger club, like Newcastle!

Average Lettuce
Oct 22, 2012


Cthulhu Dreams posted:



Average Lettuce has developed into a really weird player. You look at them, and think they are terrible, but thats not really an accurate assessment. Then you look at them some more and go they have a bunch of great tools, but how do you deploy them? Either way they shouldn't be in the B team, but you'd hope that 4 goals from 12 starts in the league is enough to convince the powers that... B to give them a crack in the senior team. They are stuck behind the 33 year old Andre Silva which would normally be a good sign for more first team football, but Silva has super high natural fitness so he will age out more slowly.

I was going to say I was a bit disappointed but... U23 Euro Golden Boot, that's not bad :)

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Cthulhu Dreams
Dec 11, 2010

If I pretend to be Cthulhu no one will know I'm a baseball robot.

Average Lettuce posted:

I was going to say I was a bit disappointed but... U23 Euro Golden Boot, that's not bad :)

Don't worry, you're going to get even weirder. The Flying Llama and myself have both seen nothing like it.

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