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That seems probable yeah.
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Apr 25, 2024 15:49
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Subjunctive posted:It doesn’t matter how much the drones cost, it matters how much it would cost to fix whatever the drones would break if they get through. It all matters. The cost of defense vs cost to fix a target matters in the sense of what is worth defending, but there are very likely more assets that meet that criteria than there are defense resources to protect them. The question is not whether something is worth defending in the abstract, but whether it's worth defending instead of something else. In this case the cost of defense vs the cost of the drone drives your primary constraint because it determines the amount of resources that have to be dedicated to defend an asset against a determined attack. Favourably changing that ratio means defending consumes less resources and you can defend more assets.
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Apr 25, 2024 16:09
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Didn't France put a 20mm on anything with tracks for a few decades as well?
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Apr 25, 2024 17:55
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Yeah they did! It was a vital SHORAD component for em into the late Cold War
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Apr 25, 2024 17:57
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Pennsylvanian posted:Didn't France put a 20mm on anything with tracks for a few decades as well? Even the main battle tanks had coaxial 20mm autocannons
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Apr 25, 2024 18:18
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PurpleXVI posted:At this point, barring the Russian populace suddenly having a popular awakening, some truly high-profile HUR shenanigans or Macron getting serious about his talk of sending French troops to Ukraine, I think Ukraine's best hope is a frozen conflict akin to the last frozen conflict, with both sides too worn out for an advance and Russia engaging in casual genocide in the occupied territories. Are we getting to the "two tired boxers" stage then?
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Apr 25, 2024 19:03
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Kraftwerk posted:Isn't this a more automated version of how the Soviets used to put DSHK and NSV machine guns on top of all their tanks? The US did this during WW2. Slap a .50 on anything big enough to not tip over from the weight. That's pretty much everything bigger than a Jeep. You might not be shooting down a fighter bomber with a single mounted .50, but enough massed fire will definitely make them think twice about getting too low. Same against army cooperation/recon aircraft. Use against ground targets was a plus, but the mounts were unshielded and better suited to AA work than anything else. For example, many tanks had the .50 towards the back of the turret, made to be fired while squatting on the rear of the tank, thus outside of the turret. madeintaipei fucked around with this message at 08:36 on Apr 26, 2024 |
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Apr 26, 2024 08:33
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Just Another Lurker posted:Are we getting to the "two tired boxers" stage then? No, Russia is currently not as tired as Ukraine and will continue to pummel Ukraine because they still have the resources and political will to do so.
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Apr 26, 2024 09:20
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Zudgemud posted:No, Russia is currently not as tired as Ukraine and will continue to pummel Ukraine because they still have the resources and political will to do so. As usual, would love to see a credible source justifying all this doomerism. Horrific losses abound on both sides but as far as I'm aware there's no real indication either is about to throw in the towel, especially with the recent influx of US lethal aid. Continuation doesn't automatically favor either.
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Apr 26, 2024 09:34
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tiaz posted:As usual, would love to see a credible source justifying all this doomerism. Horrific losses abound on both sides but as far as I'm aware there's no real indication either is about to throw in the towel, especially with the recent influx of US lethal aid. Continuation doesn't automatically favor either. this is just the status quo where, in a war of pure attrition, russia probably wins. it has a larger population and economy, and the latter hasn't collapsed as much as we might have hoped. its current government remains firmly in control and is unlikely to see any political challengers. it's the same thing that's always been true and part of Putin's strategy after having failed to take Kyiv in 3 days
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Apr 26, 2024 09:50
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tiaz posted:As usual, would love to see a credible source justifying all this doomerism. Horrific losses abound on both sides but as far as I'm aware there's no real indication either is about to throw in the towel, especially with the recent influx of US lethal aid. Continuation doesn't automatically favor either. Ukraine has yet to retake any territory since the west bank part of Kherson which is starting to be a while back, they're getting pushed back slowly and grindingly along most of the front line, Ukrainian reporting is focused on their lack of manpower and their needing to go to new lengths and new legislation to conscript more people. I think US aid will help keep the line static, but it won't help push it back(the Ukrainians have said as much themselves), which would probably require outside troops supplementing Ukraine's manpower or internal collapse in Russia. Neither of which I see happening, if the Russian people have put up with everything they've put up with so far, I don't really think any line is too far for them. The war crimes don't horrify them, they don't care about the piles of maimed neighbours and sanctions have apparently not impacted their standard of living enough to cause any real unrest(in part because they've been slow and piecemeal, rather than a total shutdown right off the bat, giving Russia time to adjust, in part because India and China have cheerfully backed the fossil fuels part of Russia's economy, and no one's sanctioning them for it). No NATO country is earnestly considering sending troops, whatever Macron is saying it's almost certainly just domestic posturing to make himself look good for the polls. I don't think Ukraine is going to "throw in the towel," I think they're going to keep fighting for as long as Russia keeps advancing, but at some point there's going to be a horrific morale/exhaustion break that forces them to fall back considerably, or public will is going to be so exhausted that it's either signing an incredibly lovely Russian "ceasefire"(i.e. prelude to the next invasion) or facing a rebellion.
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Apr 26, 2024 11:51
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Oooops: https://kyivindependent.com/source-ukraine-destroys-russian-ka-32-helicopter-at-moscow-airfield/
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Apr 26, 2024 14:13
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bolind posted:Oooops: https://kyivindependent.com/source-ukraine-destroys-russian-ka-32-helicopter-at-moscow-airfield/ huh. guess they can't park there either, mate
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Apr 26, 2024 14:49
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The UK continues to struggle with its Russia problem: https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2024/apr/26/man-charged-conducting-hostile-activity-uk-benefit-russia quote:Briton charged with aiding Russia and planning arson against Ukraine-linked business in UK
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Apr 26, 2024 16:07
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Interesting to see all of the doomers come out the woodwork after congress passed aid
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Apr 26, 2024 16:52
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madeintaipei posted:The US did this during WW2. Slap a .50 on anything big enough to not tip over from the weight. That's pretty much everything bigger than a Jeep. You might not be shooting down a fighter bomber with a single mounted .50, but enough massed fire will definitely make them think twice about getting too low. Same against army cooperation/recon aircraft. Use against ground targets was a plus, but the mounts were unshielded and better suited to AA work than anything else. For example, many tanks had the .50 towards the back of the turret, made to be fired while squatting on the rear of the tank, thus outside of the turret. For all its poo poo, Fury, does have a good example of infantry supporting a tank by mounting and using the 50cal. Also extra set of eyes for the commander.
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Apr 26, 2024 17:15
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bolind posted:Oooops: https://kyivindependent.com/source-ukraine-destroys-russian-ka-32-helicopter-at-moscow-airfield/ Ka-32 is a new one for me. Looks like it's the civil version of the Helix?
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Apr 26, 2024 18:06
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PurpleXVI posted:Ukraine has yet to retake any territory since the west bank part of Kherson which is starting to be a while back, they're getting pushed back slowly and grindingly along most of the front line, Ukrainian reporting is focused on their lack of manpower and their needing to go to new lengths and new legislation to conscript more people. I think US aid will help keep the line static, but it won't help push it back(the Ukrainians have said as much themselves), which would probably require outside troops supplementing Ukraine's manpower or internal collapse in Russia. Thanks, this is much clearer. I suppose I'm reacting to that very similar arguments could be made for the Russian side: their near-replacement-rate tank/AFV production is dependent on mothballed stocks that are starting to look pretty thin, for example, or that we've seen blocking detachments forcing people into the grinder on pain of death. I agree that 1:1 attrition at the front results in a Russian win, and I don't know what casualty multiplier turns it into a Ukrainian one (or what it currently is in reality), but just the fact of fixed lines doesn't tell us which way it's going apart from that a lot more people are going to die. imo, anyway. Also a friend linked a Real Life Lore video the other day that was, for whatever reason, extremely willing to give Russia the benefit of the doubt about its claims and plans and presumed all Western aid had or would fail, so maybe I was hypersensitive to anything remotely similar.
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Apr 26, 2024 18:25
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tiaz posted:Thanks, this is much clearer. I suppose I'm reacting to that very similar arguments could be made for the Russian side: their near-replacement-rate tank/AFV production is dependent on mothballed stocks that are starting to look pretty thin, for example, or that we've seen blocking detachments forcing people into the grinder on pain of death. I agree that 1:1 attrition at the front results in a Russian win, and I don't know what casualty multiplier turns it into a Ukrainian one (or what it currently is in reality), but just the fact of fixed lines doesn't tell us which way it's going apart from that a lot more people are going to die. Oh, yeah, and we've seen plenty of doomerism during periods where things were looking much better for Ukraine, which I considered to be largely unwarranted. I just feel like the six month drought(or was it longer?) of US aid has shifted the calculus considerably, plus I think a lot of us were expecting the Russians to... get loving tired of dying! The Ukrainians are at least fighting for their home, to keep their friends, neighbours and countrymen alive, they know that the consequence of failing to hold the line are death, torture, internment in concentration camps or having to flee to friendly European nations and living the rest of their lives as refugees. The Russians, on the other hand, have every chance to just stay on their own side of the border, not picking up a gun and thus not loving dying in a trench somewhere with their legs ripped off by an FPV drone. I can't understand what combination of greed, racism and propaganda keeps them throwing their lives away. Obviously both sides have an interest in hiding their wounds and presenting a strong front, so there might be a lot of cracks we aren't seeing, but if anything, it feels like we're getting less stories of Russian troops protesting their treatment or refusing to go to the front line, not more. Putin got re-elected with hardly a whisper of discontent except for Girkin whining from prison. By most reporting the attrition rate is probably something like 5:1 in favour of the Ukrainians, or at least it has been for most of the war, if not better, and we're seeing more and more Russians rushing the front line in lovely Chinese golf carts rather than IFV's/APC's. But enough idiots in golf carts is still a threat.
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Apr 26, 2024 18:45
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spankmeister posted:Interesting to see all of the doomers come out the woodwork after congress passed aid
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Apr 26, 2024 19:27
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Can we please not do the thing where we accuse people, or invent people to accuse, of being Russian stooges because they don't show sufficient levels of blind optimism to the guaranteed total victory of Ukraine when talking about the present situation in a multi-year conflict? It's not helpful for people who actually want have an adult discussion.
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Apr 26, 2024 19:38
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I agree, Lovely Joe Stalin
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Apr 26, 2024 19:44
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Lovely Joe Stalin posted:Can we please not do the thing where we accuse people, or invent people to accuse, of being Russian stooges because they don't show sufficient levels of blind optimism to the guaranteed total victory of Ukraine when talking about the present situation in a multi-year conflict? It's not helpful for people who actually want have an adult discussion. This is exactly what a …
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Apr 26, 2024 20:02
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Lovely Joe Stalin posted:Can we please not do the thing where we accuse people, or invent people to accuse, of being Russian stooges because they don't show sufficient levels of blind optimism to the guaranteed total victory of Ukraine when talking about the present situation in a multi-year conflict? It's not helpful for people who actually want have an adult discussion. Nobody is accusing any one of being Russian stooges. Perhaps you are projecting?
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Apr 26, 2024 20:08
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spankmeister posted:Nobody is accusing any one of being Russian stooges. Perhaps you are projecting? It's the exact thing a Russian stooge *would* say...
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Apr 26, 2024 20:12
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spankmeister posted:Nobody is accusing any one of being Russian stooges. Perhaps you are projecting? Can we not?
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Apr 26, 2024 20:13
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McNally posted:Can we not? Fair enough. But nobody *was* accusing anyone of anything of the sort so could we also not do the other thing and meta-accuse when there's really nothing going on? It's super tiring.
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Apr 26, 2024 20:16
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spankmeister posted:Fair enough. But nobody *was* accusing anyone of anything of the sort so could we also not do the other thing and meta-accuse when there's really nothing going on? It's super tiring. Then say that without the accusation.
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Apr 26, 2024 20:17
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Crab Dad posted:For all its poo poo, Fury, does have a good example of infantry supporting a tank by mounting and using the 50cal. Also extra set of eyes for the commander. I also remember reading in Armored Champion that one Regiment in WW2 actually mounted .50 cals coaxially in their Shermans.
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Apr 26, 2024 20:20
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Pennsylvanian posted:I also remember reading in Armored Champion that one Regiment in WW2 actually mounted .50 cals coaxially in their Shermans. There is already a 30 cal so it would be a lot of effort to go through to bore out the steel of the front of the tank and the glacis to mount a larger barrel and then there is the logistics of the internals of the turret and the M2 receiver is a big loving bitch and then slap in an ammo can and like, whatever there's no room? That seems like a big ask for rear area work much less at the mobile regimental repair shop.
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Apr 26, 2024 20:30
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McNally posted:Then say that without the accusation. I think maybe you're projecting about someone else projecting about stooges. McNally, do you just want to watch the three stooges in a theater? You can come clean.
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Apr 26, 2024 20:35
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Murgos posted:There is already a 30 cal so it would be a lot of effort to go through to bore out the steel of the front of the tank and the glacis to mount a larger barrel and then there is the logistics of the internals of the turret and the M2 receiver is a big loving bitch and then slap in an ammo can and like, whatever there's no room? I can't address the internal geometry of the turret, but I'm reasonably sure that the 30 cal had the cooling jacket on the barrel and a casual glance tells me that those are roughly similar in diameter to an M2HB barrel, so boring out the steel of the tank wouldn't have been necessary. CainFortea posted:I think maybe you're projecting about someone else projecting about stooges. Do you not?
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Apr 26, 2024 20:46
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McNally posted:Do you not? Well sure but i'm not the one taking it out on innocent posters!
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Apr 26, 2024 20:59
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CainFortea posted:innocent posters honest lawyers
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Apr 26, 2024 21:16
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McNally posted:I can't address the internal geometry of the turret, but I'm reasonably sure that the 30 cal had the cooling jacket on the barrel and a casual glance tells me that those are roughly similar in diameter to an M2HB barrel, so boring out the steel of the tank wouldn't have been necessary. Isn't the M2 just a lot physically bigger than the M1919 though? I guess it could work.
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Apr 26, 2024 21:50
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psydude posted:Isn't the M2 just a lot physically bigger than the M1919 though? I guess it could work. Oh it definitely is. I was just saying that the barrel might fit where the .30 cal coax's barrel goes, but I have no idea about the internal arrangements.
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Apr 26, 2024 21:52
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Just weld it to the top and use a string to pull the trigger. Reload when safe. I’m almost betting this happened at least once.
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Apr 26, 2024 23:10
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This is starting to make the rounds on Telegram. Dunno the veracity but if true, that’s a super lovely deal for Ukraine. quote:
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Apr 26, 2024 23:51
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pantslesswithwolves posted:This is starting to make the rounds on Telegram. ....this was the exact same 'treaty' Russia passed around in the first days of the war, why would Ukraine agree to any of this?
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Apr 26, 2024 23:53
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pantslesswithwolves posted:This is starting to make the rounds on Telegram. They can't join NATO, but they're allowed to have a article 5 like security guarantee? From a quick glance at WELT's site and my very rudimentary german, I think the telegram message is missing a past tense in there. The article talks about a what could have been and maybe it's still a way forward. https://www.welt.de/politik/ausland/plus251243756/Ukraine-Krieg-Geheimes-Dokument-haette-nach-zwei-Monaten-Frieden-bringen-koennen.html Oscar Wilde Bunch fucked around with this message at 00:00 on Apr 27, 2024 |
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Apr 26, 2024 23:55
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